GCR: Blowing away dirty energy: Wind to pass hydro as top renewable in 2019

[GRA]

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1121141_blowing-away-dirty-energy-wind-to-pass-hydro-as-top-renewable-in-2019

. . . The U.S. electric grid has been getting gradually greener as utilities replace coal fired powerplants with primarily wind and natural gas.

That trend is due to reach a tipping point in 2019, according to numbers by the Energy Information Agency at the U.S. Department of Energy.

In 2019, that surge in wind power is set to surpass the nation's longstanding renewable mainstay, hydroelectric power.

Wind power, which only started making up a significant portion of U.S. electricity generation this century, is set to increase by 30 percent, making up almost 8 percent of total U.S electrical generation by the end of 2019 and 9 percent in 2020, up from 6 percent in 2017, according to the EIA numbers.

That represents an increase from 96 gigawatts of power, to 107 gigawatts by the end of 2019, and to 114 gigawatts forecast by the end of 2020.

Most of the wind power in the U.S. is produced in the Midwest, where the electric grid was is still fairly heavily dependent on coal power, and in Texas. . . .

Hydro made up about 7.4 percent of electricity production in the U.S. in 2017.

Solar is growing even faster, expected to rise 29 percent by 2020. In 2017 it accounted for only 1.3 percent of total electricity generation, which is expected to reach about 1.7 percent in that time frame.

[Oilpan4]

Well yeah.
Wind turbines can be put in lots of locations, out in the middle of no where, off the coasts and over water if we can beat the nimbys into submission.
All the hydro electric we have now is likely all we are going to ever have.

[webeleafowners]

Well yeah.
Wind turbines can be put in lots of locations, out in the middle of no where, off the coasts and over water if we can beat the nimbys into submission.
All the hydro electric we have now is likely all we are going to ever have.

Mmm. Nope. Still expanding in BC and Quebec and to a lesser extent in other provinces. Mostly for export.

[SageBrush]

Well yeah.
Wind turbines can be put in lots of locations, out in the middle of no where, off the coasts and over water if we can beat the nimbys into submission.
All the hydro electric we have now is likely all we are going to ever have.

Mmm. Nope. Still expanding in BC and Quebec and to a lesser extent in other provinces. Mostly for export.

Norway has vast untapped hydro resources. it is just generally true that each region has its own unique mix of sustainable natural resources. It is just our good fortune that areas with relatively poor sunshine have more water. This is also why we share.

[paulgipe]

Guy,

The author mixes Gigawatts and "generation" in the same piece without explanation. This is a deadly confusing mix to the unwary. Gigawatts is power. Generation is in kWh or in this case TWh. He should have stuck with generation. That was the point of the story. When he inserts GW he needs to clarify that the capacity factor of wind is less than that of hydro. Now it wouldn't surprise me that EIA screwed up the press release. I take all info from the EIA with a grain of salt.

Paul

[GRA]

Guy,

The author mixes Gigawatts and "generation" in the same piece without explanation. This is a deadly confusing mix to the unwary. Gigawatts is power. Generation is in kWh or in this case TWh. He should have stuck with generation. That was the point of the story. When he inserts GW he needs to clarify that the capacity factor of wind is less than that of hydro. Now it wouldn't surprise me that EIA screwed up the press release. I take all info from the EIA with a grain of salt.

Paul

Paul, I was re-reading that quote and just noticed that (been under the weather), so thanks for pointing it out. I should have seen it and emphasized the difference in the original post. Here's what the EIA report itself says (Pages 15-16), which does make the distinction:

Electricity Generation. EIA expects total U.S. electricity generation across all sectors to average
11.3 gigawatthours per day (GWh/d) in 2019, which would be 1.9% less than generation last
year. From 1980 through 2005, U.S. electricity generation grew by an average of 2.3% per year.
During the past decade, power generation has grown relatively little, fluctuating at an annual
average of about 11.2 GWh/d since 2010 with year-to-year changes related to weather. EIA
forecasts U.S. electricity generation will grow by 0.3% between 2019 and 2020.

Renewables Generation and Capacity. Renewable generation provided 17% of total electricity
generation in 2018, and EIA expects the share of generation from renewable sources to increase
in 2019 to 18% and to 20% in 2020. Within the renewables category, hydropower was 7% of
total generation in 2018 and EIA forecasts that it will be about that share in 2019 and in 2020.
The share of total generation for renewables other than hydropower, which was 10% in 2018, is
forecast to rise to 11% in 2019 and to 13% in 2020.

EIA forecasts almost 5 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will be
added in 2019 and 6 GW will be added in 2020. Also, EIA expects nearly 9 GW of small-scale
solar PV capacity to be installed during 2019–20, mostly in the residential sector.

Domestic PV markets are still adjusting from several factors. Tariffs on PV modules imported
into the United States started at 30% in January 2018 and are expected to decline 5 percentage
points annually as they phase out over four years and expire completely after 2021. In addition,
revised PV installation targets in China produced a near-term surplus of PV modules that the
international market is still rebalancing. The Internal Revenue Service published a safe harbor
provision for PV installations to qualify for a 30% investment tax credit, which allows for a four
year construction period upon project initiation (considered to be the start of physical
construction or the expenditure of 5% of project value).

EIA expects wind capacity to increase from 96 GW at the end of 2018 to 107 GW at the end of
2019 and to 114 GW by the end of 2020. Because wind capacity is often added at the end of the
calendar year, increases in generation frequently lag increases in capacity for the year they
occur and are reflected in the generation for the next year.

The build out of new wind capacity through 2020 is strongly affected by the phase out of the
federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind, which began with projects under construction
starting after 2016. Such projects take several years to complete, and the last tranche of
projects eligible for the full $25 per megawatthour tax credit will start to enter service in
significant numbers in 2019. Activity will taper off in later years as projects started in 2016
approach the limit of their safe harbor provisions and as the construction pipeline begins to
shrink, reflecting reduced PTC pay offs for projects beginning construction in 2017 and later.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

[Oilpan4]

Well yeah.
Wind turbines can be put in lots of locations, out in the middle of no where, off the coasts and over water if we can beat the nimbys into submission.
All the hydro electric we have now is likely all we are going to ever have.

Mmm. Nope. Still expanding in BC and Quebec and to a lesser extent in other provinces. Mostly for export.

I was talking about the US.
I know Canada still has lots of water and unused land.
In the US virtually all the good spots to put a hydroelectric dam have a city some where along the river would be flooded.

[webeleafowners]

Yes but Canada’s power exports are part of the US power mix.

[matmuh]

As an architect myself I can say that a lot is being done in the field of design of buildings and structures, especially in Europe and in the US. I'm talking about things like LEED and BREEAM. In some countries, it is no longer possible to build a building without a certificate. And I think that's reasonable almost always: sustainable technologies increase asset value by 7% on average versus conventional buildings.

"Solar is growing even faster, expected to rise 29 percent by 2020. In 2017 it accounted for only 1.3 percent of total electricity generation, which is expected to reach about 1.7 percent in that time frame." Well.....

On the one hand, clean and renewable energy is a great idea. Especially in places where they can be used effectively. BUT I do not like the way that the industry is becoming increasingly commercial, which often goes hand in hand with the destruction of the environment and big corporations ravaging the planet for resources. Anything that has any commercial value and marketing potential is taken by hundreds of people to multiply it and gain their riches on it, regardless of the impacts in the long-run. Which is what concerns me a bit about booming solar industry as well. If you buy some real estate in France, somewhere on the Cote d'azur, where the sun shines all year round that seems like a good idea. But I highly doubt the rationality of using solar panels for countries like the UK or Norway. But I highly doubt the rationality of using solar panels for countries like the UK or Norway. But they do! That’s like having wind turbines in places where there is almost no wind, and having a system for collecting rainwater in the desert. Also with solar installed on your house, roof replacement costs are increased dramatically. What about wind: people often object to proposals to build wind farms because of perceived negative impacts on their lifestyle. And it is true that some people are adversely affected by the infra sound or vibration experienced in the vicinity of wind turbines. It makes a lot of noise pollution and the source of green energy is ironically very dangerous for flying birds.
Like this article:
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/7/15159034/100-renewable-energy-studies

[GRA]

That's a good article (or maybe I think so because it happens to agree with so much of my own viewpoint), and similar points and/or conclusions can be found in Mackay (https://www.withouthotair.com/), Smil and others who've done the math.