Deloitte Study Pessimistic on EV Adoption

Personally, I can see several areas where this study is weak, but I don't have access to anything more than this excerpt.


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N13105697.htm

the facts are wrong to start with, such as the cost per/Kw for the batteries (Nissan rumored to already be at $375/KW), let's just ignore the fact that cheap oil is done, and within a short time, wecould be looking at a very different (and higher) price for gasoline. Just how many people will start seeing these new fangled electric vehicles on the road and think about the cost of gasoline... Just ignore the facts to make your point, it's much easier that way

P.S. I was a "GM" man for many years, I became a Toyota man for the last 10, but I am not tied to Toyota, they are very slow in comming out with a pure EV, so I have no problem jumping ship.

i saw this over on Priuschat and no one, no matter what their qualifications, can make those statements.

EV adoption will be chiefly dependent upon the price of gas. if gas is still around $3 a gallon, he will be right. if its more along the lines of $4-5 a gallon, he will be wrong. period. end of story

A good example of how anybody indeed CAN say anything?

sjfotos said:

Personally, I can see several areas where this study is weak, but I don't have access to anything more than this excerpt.


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N13105697.htm

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This alone should disqualify their "study".

The consulting firm said it expected that advanced batteries powering electric cars would cost near $600 per kilowatt hour in 2014. That would be down from near $1,000 per kilowatt hour today.

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Since today, Nissan's number is 30% less than what they project will be the cost in 2014 - I project that their 2-3% will be hit by 2015.

Obama's goal is 1 Million EVs (PHEV+BEV) by 2015. That is 2% of the car sales over the next 5 years. I think that is achievable.

Ofcource this istudy is laughable for another reason - completely ignoring oil price / peak oil issues (AFAIK). How can anyone other than high school students do a study that doesn't address the elephent in the room ?

@evnow. I agree. I am somewhat cautious in that we don't have the entire study, but if this small portion is reflective of the whole then the study has managed to ignore both the likely cost curve reductions of batteries and the likely arc of petroleum prices. Even a petroleum supportive write-up should explore the possible alternative outcomes.

Deloitte page explaining the study:

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/.../c3b1a4c65c948210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

Direct link to the 20 page paper:

http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom...s/Documents/us_auto_GainingTraction051410.pdf

Here's the first problem I see with this study:

"The analysis presented in this report comes from original primary and secondary research, including interviews with executives from major automotive OEMs, clean-tech start-ups, dealers, and energy companies, as well as a survey of nearly 2,000 current vehicle owners."

These and too many other studies are the 'blind leading the blind' when it comes to EVs. Most haven't seen or driven an EV, and most have a vested interest in the technology failing. Garbage in, garbage out. Gack!

That being said, it's a worthwhile report to read, as it shows what the 'industry' thinks, and will give us a view of the bad data that becomes the junk articles being published by the press.

EVers - ignore the noise!

This isn't the first time, nor will it be the last time, that a "disruptive" technology came in and upset the apple cart, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The traditional automotive industry has no idea what's about to happen, and as usual, will be caught offguard and totaly unprepared.

mitch672 said:

This isn't the first time, nor will it be the last time, that a "disruptive" technology came in and upset the apple cart, it's happened before, and it will happen again.

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Amen!

mitch672 said:

The traditional automotive industry has no idea what's about to happen, and as usual, will be caught offguard and totaly unprepared.

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Roger THAT! And it couldn't happen to a better group. :twisted: