Hybrid car sales: Lots of options, few takers

The market share for hybrid cars peaked in 2009 at 2.8% of all new vehicles sold. The year after that, it fell to 2.4% and it's on track to be a little less than that this year, according to data from Edmunds.com.

That's despite the fact that the number of hybrid models on the market has increased each year. In 2009, there were 17. At the start of 2011, there were 30.

Disappointing to hear. I'd like to see more hybrid offerings, and more EV offerings. It's going to be tough if the market doesn't support them.

After buying and selling a few cars over the past couple of years, its pretty simple. No one has any money to spend! This combined with the fact that hybrids are relatively expensive and fuel prices went to $2.00 a gallon in 09, I am not surprised people saw hybrids as an unnecessary luxury. Now, people have even less money due to the return of high gas prices and wishing they had bought that Hybrid after all. If people though about digging their well BEFORE they got thirsty, they would be OK.

TRONZ said:

If people thought about digging their well BEFORE they got thirsty, they would be OK.

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And the world would be a completely different place, amen!

TRONZ said:

After buying and selling a few cars over the past couple of years, its pretty simple. No one has any money to spend!

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I don't disagree - but the sales of hybrid as a percentage of all cars sold appears to be declining - not just the year over year sales.

TRONZ said:

This combined with the fact that hybrids are relatively expensive and fuel prices went to $2.00 a gallon in 09, I am not surprised people saw hybrids as an unnecessary luxury.

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This could well be - but a shame to think that the benefits of hybrids would be considered a luxury. The extra few thousand up front to save over time, and arguably to be more friendly to the environment over time still seems well worth the investment.

TRONZ said:

Now, people have even less money due to the return of high gas prices and wishing they had bought that Hybrid after all. If people though about digging their well BEFORE they got thirsty, they would be OK.

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Amen

DarkStar said:

TRONZ said:

If people thought about digging their well BEFORE they got thirsty, they would be OK.

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And the world would be a completely different place, amen!

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That is why I bought a Leaf. My motto is "Be prepared"

One thing the article didn't mention was the short supply due to the earthquake in Japan this year. When we tried to buy a new Prius for my wife a few months ago, we couldn't find one anywhere. We called every dealer in the Dallas/Ft.Worth area and none of them had a Prius for sale. Even used ones were very hard to find. In the end we bought her a used 2010 Prius with only 10,000 miles because that was the closest to new that we could find.

Most people buy boring cars for practical reasons, to get back and forth to work.. with the collapse of oil prices in 2008 its not surprising the ROI calculation has gotten much worse. I think there may be a market electrifying large SUVs such as the Explorer, but many people wont tolerate a pay-back period more than a couple years. Oil is still a cheap fuel but that can change quickly with economic activity.

There is room in the near-luxury market, such as Lincoln and GM are exploiting with their electrics.

I dont know about you, but I sure see lots a priuses in socal.

thankyouOB said:

I dont know about you, but I sure see lots a priuses in socal.

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Yep, very true.......

I see many in SoCal too and recently thought about how rare hybrids used to be. Remember when hybrids were an oddity? Now all-electric cars and plug-in hybrids are arriving, and their numbers will grow too. Plus, when the next cycle of high gas prices (or a major oil shock) hits, people will flock to the vehicles that use less or no gas. That will create more interest and long-term acceptance of these options -- even though people will have to pay more for those cars if they want to buy one during a major oil shock.

All other considerations aside, I believe that part of it, from a hybrid standpoint, is that the mileage of ICE cars has steadily improved to the point where there are now many that offer mileage nearly comparable to a hybrid but without the attendant additional cost and compromises. Look at the mileage of the new Prius v as a case in point... This makes it harder for many to justify a hybrid...

We are going to replace our ICE vehicle next year and were looking at a variety of options at the recent auto show. We looked at, among many other things, the new Prius v. Its mileage is not that much better than a number of other conventional ICE vehicles that we looked at, all of which were nicer and cheaper comparably equipped... We haven't made a decision yet, but it does make it harder to consider the Prius.

LakeLeaf said:

The market share for hybrid cars peaked in 2009 at 2.8% of all new vehicles sold. The year after that, it fell to 2.4% and it's on track to be a little less than that this year, according to data from Edmunds.com.
That's despite the fact that the number of hybrid models on the market has increased each year. In 2009, there were 17. At the start of 2011, there were 30.
Disappointing to hear. I'd like to see more hybrid offerings, and more EV offerings. It's going to be tough if the market doesn't support them.

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TomT said:

All other considerations aside, I believe that part of it is that the mileage of ICE cars has steadily improved to the point where there are now many that offer mileage nearly comparable to a hybrid but without the attendant additional cost and compromises. Look at the mileage of the new Prius v as a case in point... This makes it harder for many to justify a hybrid...

LakeLeaf said:

The market share for hybrid cars peaked in 2009 at 2.8% of all new vehicles sold. The year after that, it fell to 2.4% and it's on track to be a little less than that this year, according to data from Edmunds.com.
That's despite the fact that the number of hybrid models on the market has increased each year. In 2009, there were 17. At the start of 2011, there were 30.
Disappointing to hear. I'd like to see more hybrid offerings, and more EV offerings. It's going to be tough if the market doesn't support them.

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I don't believe hybrid sales, past or present, have as great a correlation to future EV sales trends as many seem to think.

I've never found hybrids very attractive, as compared to "standard" ICEVs. I rarely drive in traffic conditions where hybrids' great advantage, in "city" driving efficiency, are realized.

There are many 40+ mpg highway ICEVs available today that achieve that level of fuel efficiency with innovations that used to be more or less unique to hybrids, lower rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics, etc. Even in “city” driving, significant efficiency gains can can be had by adding stop/start systems to non-hybrid ICEVs.

I remember when the 2nd generation Prius came out, thinking that without the extra weight, and complexity, of the Hybrid drivetrain, it would be a very good NON-hybrid ICEV, that could probably give me well over 40 mpg on the freeway with a 5 speed and small displacement turbocharged gas engine, and 50+ mpg with a turbo diesel, for a much lower MSRP.

I doubt Toyota would ever want to "dilute" the Prius brand, with a hybrid-delete option, though...

Part of what makes the Prius high mileage is also the engine, its an Atkinson cycle, they try to run it in a specific RPM range, that its optimized for, then use the electric motor for additonal energy, and to keep the ICE in the ideal RPM range, they are combined with the transaxle.

BTW, if it sais "Prius" on the model, its going to be a hybrid, even the new wagon, etc.

Speaking as an expert, as I have owned all 3 generations of Prii, I have never had any issues with the hybrid drive train, everyone seems to think its so complex it must be big trouble. Not so, in my 10 years of driving them, not one issue related to drive train.

OilFreedom said:

... (or a major oil shock).....

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Gas at over 4 dollars a gallon is not a shock!!!

It is amazing how quickly we become complacent/accepting of high prices.

edatoakrun said:

I remember when the 2nd generation Prius came out, thinking that without the extra weight, and complexity, of the Hybrid drivetrain, it would be a very good NON-hybrid ICEV

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Weight and complexity of the drivetrain?? You've got to be kidding, right? Well, OK, I'll grant you weight, if you include the generator and electric motor, but that is by far the simplest "transmission" of any highway-capable ICE car on the road. It is almost, but not quite, as simple as the LEAF. No gears ever get "shifted". It has one planetary gear, and a planetary gear is really the same as a differential, though with different gear ratios. So think of it as having a second differential and no transmission at all.

Ray

TomT said:

All other considerations aside, I believe that part of it, from a hybrid standpoint, is that the mileage of ICE cars has steadily improved to the point where there are now many that offer mileage nearly comparable to a hybrid but without the attendant additional cost and compromises. Look at the mileage of the new Prius v as a case in point... This makes it harder for many to justify a hybrid...

We are going to replace our ICE vehicle next year and were looking at a variety of options at the recent auto show. We looked at, among many other things, the new Prius v. Its mileage is not that much better than a number of other conventional ICE vehicles that we looked at, all of which were nicer and cheaper comparably equipped... We haven't made a decision yet, but it does make it harder to consider the Prius.

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Disagree completely w/the your first point. The city and combined mileage of many of these so-called efficient ICE cars falls far short. It irks me to see car companies only prominently displaying/talking about the highest number, usually the EPA highway #, and often w/manual transmissions or a more expensive trim. What's the combined mileage of '12 Cruze non-Eco models? Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/sbs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, it's 27 to 30 mpg combined vs. 50 mpg combined for the Prius. ~66% to ~85% better is nearly comparable? Look at the city numbers, we're talking 22-26 mpg vs. 51.

What's the combined mileage of the '12 Cruze Eco? 31-33 mpg, depending on transmission.

Please find other non-hybrid midsized cars (as classified by the EPA) which have combined mileage "nearly comparable" to Priuses. One can look at CR's list (w/their test results) at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/buying-advice/most-fuelefficient-cars/overview/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Notice hybrids make up a pretty portion of the list. Compare the amount of power, size classification and interior room of the more efficient ICE only vehicles on the list. (More cars listed at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/buying-advice/best-worst-cars-review/best-worst-fuel-economy/best-and-worst-fuel-economy.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.)

As for the Prius v, what other ICE vehicle has comparable interior and cargo capacity to the Prius v while achieving 40 mpg combined?

First, the new Prius v (for "versatile", not the smaller size puddle jumper), which is what I was discussing above, is nowhere near 50 combined; it is 42 mpg in the city, 38 on the highway, and 40 combined, in fact. Second, there are a number of nice diesels (and even some gas vehicles) out there now with much better performance and close to the same mileage... The vehicle is used primarily on the highway so city mileage is not the biggest consideration for us.

cwerdna said:

Disagree completely w/the your first point. The city and combined mileage of many of these so-called efficient ICE cars falls far short. It irks me to see car companies only prominently displaying/talking about the highest number, usually the EPA highway #, and often w/manual transmissions or a more expensive trim. What's the combined mileage of '12 Cruze non-Eco models? Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/sbs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, it's 27 to 30 mpg combined vs. 50 mpg combined for the Prius. ~66% to ~85% better is nearly comparable? Look at the city numbers, we're talking 22-26 mpg vs. 51.

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TomT said:

... First, the new Prius v (for "versatile", not the smaller size puddle jumper), which is what I was discussing above, is nowhere near 50 combined; it is 42 mpg in the city, 38 on the highway, and 40 combined, in fact. Second, there are a number of nice diesels (and even some gas vehicles) out there now with much better performance and close to the same mileage...

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But aren't all of those smaller than the Prius v? They should properly be compared to the smaller, 50mpg Prius.

Nope, not the ones I am looking at at least... The smaller Prius is smaller than all of them and not nearly as nice inside... I'll reserve final judgement until I drive them all, however.

davewill said:

TomT said:

... First, the new Prius v (for "versatile", not the smaller size puddle jumper), which is what I was discussing above, is nowhere near 50 combined; it is 42 mpg in the city, 38 on the highway, and 40 combined, in fact. Second, there are a number of nice diesels (and even some gas vehicles) out there now with much better performance and close to the same mileage...

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But aren't all of those smaller than the Prius v? They should properly be compared to the smaller, 50mpg Prius.

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Even low cost cars such as the sub-compact Kia Rio will have start-stop engine in 2012 and will go on sale for $14,350. This will help give 3-5% fuel saving. So one of hybrids' advantages is already starting to become a common place feature in ICE cars in the short future. So all the hybrid's advantages left are the electric take-off and regen slow down.