Pickens Plan Update

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AndyH

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These three videos are from July and give an update on what we spend on foreign oil and why we need an energy plan. The fourth video is the latest Pickens Plan overview white board talk.

Larry King Live
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdDYAciqT98[/youtube]

China has an energy plan - why don't we?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJiTTd_XgiM[/youtube]

OPEC Profit Update
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4BPn1YADgo[/youtube]

White Board Talk
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhrEbRscIhs[/youtube]
 
One question has been bugging me for a few weeks (since the debut of 'Gasland')....if Natural Gas is so abundant, why the hell are the having to Frack the living crap out of the ground in places like PA and WV to get what's there?
 
I'm with you - I'm having a real problem with fracking as well.

I was happy to hear that at least some regulation has been added to one of the climate bills working thru the system but I have no idea yet if it's useful regulation or just lipstick on the pig...
 
What the military thinks of changing our energy policies...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmb0bsQn7rU[/youtube]
 
Start here. Eamon Keane, a research student, wrote a 7 part article on "Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence". Very well researched article.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/187096-why-natural-gas-vehicles-won-t-decrease-oil-dependence-part-i

And about "The 100 Year Natural Gas Myth". There are a lot of people who have written about it too.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/193234-the-100-year-natural-gas-myth

345817-126832470045574-Eamon-Keane.png


Reality ...

345817-126832476712203-Eamon-Keane.png
 
In any case, Pickens has achieved his goal. In the energy bill there is $4 Billion for natural gas. Mostly taken out of electric vehicles, which from some $3.8 Billion in Senate bill went to $400 Million.

Well played, Pickens.

This is what Jeff Rubin thinks about Pickens.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/boone-pickens-plan-full-of-hot-air/article1668168/

T__Boone_Pickens_813662artw.jpg


Boone Pickens’ plan full of hot air

Planes fly on jet fuel made from oil, ships run on bunker fuel made from oil, and, most importantly, motor vehicles run on gasoline or diesel made from oil. And with good reason: oil packs about four times the energy density of natural gas. And it carries about 20 times the energy density of the lithium-ion battery found in an electric car.
...
Another reason is the absence of a fuel distribution system. Outside of urban centers, there are few gas stations that supply natural gas, which means that, at best, the fuel can only be used for urban commutes. To build a national distribution system for the fuel would require subsidies that far exceed anything already squandered on encouraging home-grown ethanol production.
 
Another case of selective vision?

The plan is not perfect - but it's the ONLY PLAN that's on the table - other than 'stay the foreign oil course'.

The way I see the significance of what he's been doing is that he's grabbing the US leadership by the horns and turning them a bit. Once they can SEE that alternatives to foreign oil EXIST they'll more easily be able to comprehend other options - including electrification. Don't forget that a major portion of the overall Pickens Plan is wind and transmission infrastructure. That portion continues - but the gas side needed a kick to get it moving.

If you think my view is incorrect, please enlighten me!
 
The problem is NG resources. If we start using a lot of it for transport - that $5 he talks about for 1tmcf is going to go up pretty quickly.

We should spend money on trains for long distance transport. Using 18 wheelers is highly inefficient. Buffett made the right investment.

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/buffetts-bet-on-trains/

ps : I don't agree with Rubin completely. I don't even think Buffette plan is complete nonsense (even though he keeps talking about ethonol). I've also said before that energy independence for US alone is a myth. Since we import so much of the stuff we use - we are effectively dependent on the energy embedded in all those products ....
 
Whoa, evnow - that was a significant edit!

Let me guess... You're not a fan. Apparently Rubin isn't either. Let's see - what's a Rubin? Oh. He's a Canadian economist from a government and brokerage house background that apparently believes the world will go to hell in a handbasket when oil runs out. Might we agree that he's looking at the 'world' from the 'inside' - from what Einstein suggested is the same mindset that created the problem? Is it any surprise that one that uses a red crayon 24/7 might not be able to see blue or yellow?

Unfortunately, the opening paragraph of the linked article you linked is just plain wrong. It's not anyone's fault but Rubin's that he starts from an erroneous position, heads in the wrong direction, then blames Pickens when Rubin gets lost. :lol:

The goal of the Pickens plan is to REDUCE the amount of oil imported from HOSTILE areas - not to eliminate all imports or get the US off oil.

Some of us might have noticed that the "grand obstructionist party' does not recognize environmental damage or global warming, but they do understand and respond to security. One doesn't get very far in Paris when speaking Swahili. ;)

In late 2008, the Department of Energy published their "20% Wind by 2030" report:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/

Why do we care - we don't really use oil to generate electricity (1-2%), right?

Pickens and the other companies planting wind turbines in Texas looked at the DOE report and said that if we got going we could get 20% wind in 10 years - not 20.

Pickens went to the next step - if we can free up 20% of our electrical generation, what can we free-up to use somewhere else?

Trucking uses a LOT of liquid fuel. Yes - it would be cool to use more trains, but we don't, and they aren't suitable in our near term for terminal to terminal transport. We absolutely CAN rework our entire distribution system but it's not going to happen anytime soon. So what CAN we do - and quickly?

The natural gas currently used for power generation can be diverted to other uses quickly and for the least amount of money. Stock diesel engines use natural gas or propane to boost power the way gasoline engines can use nitrous oxide. It's a lot easier to modify a large diesel engine to burn natural gas - and the vehicles are already sized to carry the large tanks. And large truck emissions standards are worse than small vehicles - switching from diesel to natural gas cuts a LOT of carcinogens, nano-scale soot, and other emissions.

Natural gas detractors suggest that the nation would have to build a complete infrastructure - and that it would be useless once we run out of gas. Except...the target trucking companies generally have their own routes and their own maintenance and fuel depots. New 'fuel stations' get added to the main transport corridors only after the company determines that they're necessary - 800 to 1000 miles apart, give or take.

I'm a regional rep for the Pickens Plan. There are things I like - it's a PLAN! It's centered around planting wind and distribution infrastructure. Reducing diesel use in relatively dirty engines to replace it with a cleaner fuel is a good thing. Smacking our politicians in the nose with a rolled-up newspaper to get them to change course - especially when backed by a 1.6million strong grass-roots 'army' is also a good thing. Pickens is putting a TON of his own money and time into promoting an alternative to 'more of the same'.

I'm not happy about fracking and write my reps and senators, the president, and the EPA regularly to to push for industry regulation to protect our water and health.

Throw rocks if you wish - but attach a copy of your plan because I'm looking for something better if it exists! :D

Andy
 
evnow said:
The problem is NG resources. If we start using a lot of it for transport - that $5 he talks about for 1tmcf is going to go up pretty quickly.

We should spend money on trains for long distance transport. Using 18 wheelers is highly inefficient. Buffett made the right investment.

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/buffetts-bet-on-trains/

ps : I don't agree with Rubin completely. I don't even think Buffette plan is complete nonsense (even though he keeps talking about ethonol). I've also said before that energy independence for US alone is a myth. Since we import so much of the stuff we use - we are effectively dependent on the energy embedded in all those products ....

NG can go up a couple hundred percent and still be less expensive than diesel. Even if it does go up 'down the road' (sorry) the vehicles that are produced to use NG will continue to be cleaner and not require importing more crude.

Efficiency is relative, I guess. We say we want more manufacturing in this country. Just in time is much more efficient than warehousing parts. Can you imagine the cost of adding a rail spur to a new Nissan plant so they can get parts? Trucking in this country moves most of our food, clothing, cars. A trailer can be filled once - moved anywhere in the country, and unloaded once. What happens to efficiency and the price of any item if it gets put on a truck at a factory, unloaded to put on a train, unloaded and put on a truck, the unloaded in a store's warehouse? Which homeowners should give up their land so that a new set of tracks can connect to every WalMart? ;) Or - how many more FedEx and UPS trucks will we need to move the equivalent of 5 semi-trailers of clothes to Target or LiMn cells to Nissan's battery plant?

I agree 100% that we need a lot of trains and as much electrification as possible - but I don't think it's realistic to completely stop the US while we tear everything down and rebuild it in a new configuration. It would be great, but not likely to happen. :(
 
AndyH said:
Whoa, evnow - that was a significant edit!

Sorry, must have crossed posts.

Let me guess... You're not a fan. Apparently Rubin isn't either. Let's see - what's a Rubin? Oh. He's a Canadian economist from a government and brokerage house background that apparently believes the world will go to hell in a handbasket when oil runs out. Might we agree that he's looking at the 'world' from the 'inside' - from what Einstein suggested is the same mindset that created the problem? Is it any surprise that one that uses a red crayon 24/7 might not be able to see blue or yellow?

Rubin has an interesting history. Infact his Peak Oil views cost him his job as the chief economist at CIBC - he just quit the job to write his book. He is, BTW, not a doomer at all. He thinks everything will work out just fine - read his book. I don't agree with him on a lot of things, but he does have a very strong expertise in energy markets.

Unfortunately, the opening paragraph of the linked article you linked is just plain wrong. It's not anyone's fault but Rubin's that he starts from an erroneous position, heads in the wrong direction, then blames Pickens when Rubin gets lost. :lol:

Here is his 1st paragraph - what do you find plain wrong here ?

T. Boone Pickens’ plans to save the United States from its energy dependence on so-called hostile petro-powers is, simply put, full of hot air. The abundance of shale gas in the U.S. will no more free the country’s motorists from dependence on foreign oil than have either the American production of over ten billion gallons of corn-based ethanol or the rollout of GM’s electric-powered Volt.


Throw rocks if you wish - but attach a copy of your plan because I'm looking for something better if it exists! :D

I think someone like Romm (http://climateprogress.org/) has a workable plan. Assuming Peak Oil won't cause chaos. See this book ...

"Hell and High Water: Global Warming--the Solution and the Politics--and What We Should Do"
 
AndyH said:
NG can go up a couple hundred percent and still be less expensive than diesel. Even if it does go up 'down the road' (sorry) the vehicles that are produced to use NG will continue to be cleaner and not require importing more crude.

But how long will the NG last ? How much can you trust all the scamsters when they say "100 years of NG" ? AFterall they are just trying to attract stupid money.

NG is simply not scalable and definitely not a long term solution. It may be an ok interim solution ... thats about it.

Infact we should greatly cut down all this long distance stuff movement - that is just a byproduct of cheap energy. Make & buy things locally. The existing train system is enough to move rest of the stuff. I'd be happy to see the end of walmarts and targets.
 
evnow said:
But how long will the NG last ?
From a Pickens Plan perspective, NG is only a short-term 'bridge fuel' until we've gotten the trains and EVs in place.

The NG gas use is focused only on long-haul trucking - the companies that run regular corridors. And the push is toward adding NG trucks thru attrition - thru new purchases - not by retrofitting. And it's certainly not about private cars or trucks.

evnow said:
How much can you trust all the scamsters when they say "100 years of NG" ? AFterall they are just trying to attract stupid money.
We don't need to trust the scamsters to continue to evolve. Waiting for the perfect planetary alignment before getting off oil all but guarantees that we'll die where we sit today. There are still people buying the stock market because they think it'll keep going up 10% per year, too. Saving people from themselves is well beyond my pay grade and skill level - and likely any energy policy. ;)

evnow said:
NG is simply not scalable and definitely not a long term solution. It may be an ok interim solution ... thats about it.
100% agreed.

evnow said:
Infact we should greatly cut down all this long distance stuff movement - that is just a byproduct of cheap energy. Make & buy things locally. The existing train system is enough to move rest of the stuff. I'd be happy to see the end of walmarts and targets.
100% agree here as well.
 
The reason why you don't see too many people jumping on Pickens plan is this. It goes against the plan to reduce emissions.

Here is the idea to reduce emissions from power plants.
- Install a lot of PV/Wind
- Convert all Coal plants to NG
- Use NG plants as and when needed i.e. as backup for PV/Wind

If you don't put in a lot of nuclear plants, this is the way to make it work. In other words, NG is too valuable a resource to be wasting on trasportation.

BTW, here is an interesting article on CNG/LNG.

http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1660

He thinks only 2% of oil import will be displaced by converting 400K trucks. But that would also increase NG consumption by 2.5%. So, very doable with little bad side effect, if finance works out.
 
Quote:
"T. Boone Pickens’ plans to save the United States from its energy dependence on so-called hostile petro-powers is, simply put, full of hot air. The abundance of shale gas in the U.S. will no more free the country’s motorists from dependence on foreign oil than have either the American production of over ten billion gallons of corn-based ethanol or the rollout of GM’s electric-powered Volt."

Rubin's the Man! I totally agree with his quote. I'm tired of people saying, "we need to wean ourselves slowly off of gasoline, oil, ng, diesel", etc. I believe the time is NOW because we need to stop stealing the Earth's natural resources. We're nothing but thieves!Not many people bring this up, but you can take this to the bank: The Earth is really fed up with all the assaults on ALL its natural resources and how it has been treated for many years, and there will be major consequences. "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." You just better tighten your seat belts because we're going to experience a bumpy ride very soon.
 
I agree with your bottom line, leaffan, but cannot agree with your love of Rubin's quote - because that's NOT what the Pickens Plan is about. If it was, I'd agree with you and Rubin as well. :D
 
Containers ship by train and distribute by truck.

Yes, "locally grown/made" will be required before too long, I believe.

Resources divided by number of people ... is still a "driving" factor on the planet.
 
evnow said:
Start here. Eamon Keane, a research student, wrote a 7 part article on "Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence". Very well researched article.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/187096-why-natural-gas-vehicles-won-t-decrease-oil-dependence-part-i

And about "The 100 Year Natural Gas Myth". There are a lot of people who have written about it too.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/193234-the-100-year-natural-gas-myth
I can't disagree with the 100 year NG myth.

I've read Keane's article. His piece really isn't about the Pickens Plan though, since he admits that he can't find the plan on the Pickens website.
What is most shocking is that Pickens doesn't actually have a plan. Take a look at his website. I searched the site for the detailed plan, the report which goes into all the costs, benefits and constraints, but all I found were press releases.
The broad overview of the plan is linked from the main page - it's difficult to miss:
http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan/

In addition, also linked to the main page, is a fair amount of resource material:
http://push.pickensplan.com/page/page/show?id=2187034:Page:1095041

Including this on the non-existent plan:
http://media.pickensplan.com/pdf/pickensplan.pdf

There are several pillars to the Pickens Plan:
1. Create millions of new jobs by building out the capacity to generate up to 22 percent of our electricity from wind. And adding to that with additional solar capacity;
2. Building a 21st century backbone electrical grid;
3. Providing incentives for homeowners and the owners of commercial buildings to upgrade their insulation and other energy saving options; and
4. Using America’s natural gas to replace imported oil as a transportation fuel.

While dependence on foreign oil is a critical concern, it is not a problem that can be solved in
isolation. We have to think about energy as a whole, and that begins by considering our
energy alternatives and thinking about how we will fuel our world in the next 10 to 20 years and
beyond.
Now - after seeing what Pickens says about his plan - especially the part about REPLACING NG currently used for electrical generation and redirecting it to heavy trucks - what do you see in this image from Keane's piece:
345817-12655715255066-Eamon-Keane.png


While I realize that he shows there's much more diesel demand than available NG, had he really looked at the Pickens Plan he would have realized that the purple area of demand for NG-fueled electricity generation would be phased out as the transportation demand rises. Since Pickens is talking about only using NG in class-8 trucks as a bridge fuel, and likely only out to 2020 or so, that looks like a rough wash to me.

A longer term benefit of the NG trucks that would be on the road is that we can continue to fuel them with methane from 'capped' landfills after we find another use for (or run out of) NG.

If one wants to see what Pickens has to say about our energy problems:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x985x1_alternative-energy-town-hall-picken_news

Andy
 
Here is an interesting take on Ng / shale gas.

http://gregor.us/ng/land-of-gas/

Let’s acknowledge however that it’s taking more wells across North America to produce this natural gas from shale. And, let’s also be aware that any attempt to scale up this production is going to run into water, and contamination issues, as recently portrayed in Josh Fox’s film, Gasland. These will present formidable hurdles to any large, future call on US natural gas resources, say, of the kind as suggested by the Picken’s Plan.
...
As an investor, or a policy maker, your better path forward now is to greet with skepticism those who continue to talk about an impending steep decline of North American NG production. A technique has been perfected to extract this NG, and the results are inarguable. Equally, it would not be advisable to start counting on the resource as a miracle, that can be easily scaled up quickly, safely, and cheaply. That’s naive. I do think the US can continue to migrate energy demand towards natural gas. But, only at moderate growth rates. Given my negative outlook for the US economy over the coming decade, this limit to shale natural gas is unlikely to present a problem.
 
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