garygid wrote:Didn't somebody report recently that it would cost the customer
about $600 (plus labor) to replace just ONE of the 48 Modules
at a Nissan Dealer (not under warranty)?
So, maybe $60 to $100 real cost per module now
($3000 to $5000 for just the Battery Pack's modules)?
Of course that cost is probably mostly labor. I mean if you think about it, most dealerships charge around $120 per hour for labor (even though the poor technician is probably getting around $15) so if you imagine how long it would take to drop the battery pack, disassemble, replace the module, put it all back together.. You probably have 3 or 4 hours there. So that is nearly $500 in labor.. So yeah, I'd agree the module is probably $100 if the cost for a dealer to replace it is $600.
I am also of the agreement that 10 years from now EV charging infrastructure will be much better than it is today. And unless there is a major leap in battery density and cost, I would expect the extra infrastructure to allow 50-mile EV's to be a viable business model (or maybe a car with several choices of battery pack, the lowest being 50 miles) So if my leaf can still drive 50 miles 10 years from now, then it will still be a viable car.
The question is sort of important though, how long will the rest of the car last? As somebody else pointed out most cars are designed with a 10 year life span in mind. I mean, if you look on the road today most of the cars you will see were produced in the 21st century. Sure, there are some still from the 1990's, and very few from the 1980's still on the road. But what is it that actually makes these cars go to the junk-yard?
I'll throw in an example. I had a 1995 Eagle Talon. I bought it used and drove it for about 5 years. The body and interior will still in really good shape, because I take good care of my cars. It had never been wrecked. But around 2009 I had to sell the car. It was 14 years old and it had started smoking. It had around 150,000 miles on it. The problem was the engine, there was no getting around it. The engine would have to be either replaced or rebuilt. The problem was the car was only worth about $3,000 and the cost of the repair would have exceeded the cost of the car. Even if it had a brand-new engine, the value of the car would only reach maybe $4,000 to $5,000. But the real trick is that the car also needed some other work. Some of the bushings in the suspension were giving out. Some of the paint was oxidizing in places, it was probably going to need a lot of new hoses, and other little things.
So, using that as an example. It is sort of hard to predict what an electric car will be worth when the battery needs replacement. If the rest of the car is still in fantastic working order, then it may be perfectly justifiable to spend $10,000 on a new battery pack if it means that car can go another 10 years.
Also, I am willing to bet once the batteries start failing, companies will pop into existence which will refurbish the battery packs probably much cheaper than buying a new one. A lot of people are buying refurbished batteries for the Generation-1 Prius's which are having a lot of failures now that those cars are 10 years old. The cost is usually around $1,200 I think.