Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

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^^^
Interesting re: Australia. Didn't know that. I'll have to look into that when I have some time.

A quick Google search for site:priuschat.com nhw10 australia seems to reveal a few.
 
cwerdna said:
I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.
Call it what you will, Toyota sold nearly 71,000 copies of the XW10 according to Wikipedia. Of those 71,000 XW10s, it sounds like over 37,000 were the NHW10 style:
Wikipedia said:
Production commenced in December 1997 at the Takaoka plant in Toyota, Aichi, ending in February 2000 after cumulative production of 37,425 vehicles. Production recommenced in May 2000 at the Motomachi plant in the same area, before XW10 manufacture ended in June 2003 after a further 33,411 vehicles had been produced.
In other words, Toyota built more of the NHW10 style that you referred to as a "science experiment" than the NHW11, which you referred to as the first generation Prii. That doesn't sound like a science experiment to me. Perhaps the article is in error?
 
evnow said:
If we look at both Prius & Leaf - we see initial takeup in the first year (which I think cleared off the "pent up demand"). The second year was a flatline.

Then came a mid generation change and price drop that has been propelling sales. May be it will flatline in a year or so - when we'll need another big change to move sales to another level.

I think Leaf gen 2 is a year late (in '16). So, it is possible in '15 we'll have some flatlining.

All this in the US - works slightly differently worldwide.

Try 2017 for Gen 2.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-provides-details-next-generation-leaf-luxury-infiniti-ev-back-track-2017-debut/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next-generation Nissan LEAF expected to arrive right after Nissan’s Power 88 business plan, which ends March 31, 2017

It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Try 2017 for Gen 2.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-provides-details-next-generation-leaf-luxury-infiniti-ev-back-track-2017-debut/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next-generation Nissan LEAF expected to arrive right after Nissan’s Power 88 business plan, which ends March 31, 2017
That would make it very parallel with the Prius, which would make for a more interesting comparison.
GetOffYourGas said:
It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.
Perhaps, but it seems Nissan is finally starting to pull away from supply constraints (mainly batteries). If the 2015s capacity loss is dramatically lower than previous LEAFs, that could improve word-of-mouth.

Finally, there is the price of gasoline. That is an ever-present wildcard which could open the floodgates at any time. I do not count out that possibility. The availability of PV solar limits the impact of rising electricity prices, at least for homeowners.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.

Is a whole american car sales are picking up and I am seeing a greater trend toward more economical transportation. If you consider my situation; six months ago I didn't even know what a Leaf looked like, and barely knew it was one of those "electric" cars. It took a busy week where I dropped $200 in the tank of my 2011 Toyota Tundra (14MPG) that caused me to wake up. I don't need a truck that bad!
The major benefit for me was the Nissan dealer network. I know there are complaints with Nissan, but every dealer in the country knows what a Leaf is. You can't say that about Toyota and RAV4 EV. The numbers are there.

I considered the Tesla. The price was just not justifiable for me. The "E" may be different!

The bottom line for sales is a quality car, economical to operate, and a company that stands behind their product. The federal and state incentives don't hurt. One added thing - Leaf sales will be directly proportional to gas prices. Just like it was for Prius. The difference now is that, for the common car buyer, the Leaf offers the option to get completely off of gasoline for the first time.
 
RegGuheert said:
GetOffYourGas said:
It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.
Perhaps, but it seems Nissan is finally starting to pull away from supply constraints (mainly batteries). If the 2015s capacity loss is dramatically lower than previous LEAFs, that could improve word-of-mouth.

True. Nissan is starting to resolve the supply constraints. Personally, I expect the result to be that they actually discover where the demand ceiling is for the Leaf. Even if the 2015 has the Lizard battery, and it turns out to be successful in the heat, all that does is reduce negative word-of-mouth.

RegGuheert said:
Finally, there is the price of gasoline. That is an ever-present wildcard which could open the floodgates at any time. I do not count out that possibility. The availability of PV solar limits the impact of rising electricity prices, at least for homeowners.

Absolutely, but with demand for gasoline in the US actually falling, I don't see a huge jump in gas prices in the next year or two. I suspect that gas will still be hovering around $3.50-$4/gallon for the next year or so. By the time the next generation Leaf arrives in 2017, gas could creep up to $5/gallon. Or something catastrophic could happen and it could be closer to $10/gallon. I suspect the former is much more likely.
 
RegGuheert said:
We have had some previous discussion of LEAF sales versus Prius sales, but I thought it might be interesting to have a thread which compared this data directly. By nearly any metric, the Toyota Prius has been a big success, and thus it may be informative to compare relative LEAF sales.

Sales numbers are from Wikipedia for both the Prius and the LEAF.
Code:
+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  50.0?|   147?|  180%?|
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |       |       |       |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 |       |       |       |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 |       |       |       |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 |       |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 |       |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 |       |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 |       |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 |       |       |       |
|  2010 |  >508 | >2119 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 |  >417 | >2536 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 |  >489 | >3025 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 |  >405 | >3430 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
- The percentage of LEAF sales to Prius sale in the last column is cumulative.

coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit
 
evnow said:
donald said:
BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.
No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.

agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started

I agree with what you're saying, but I take issue with the way you worded it. Hybrids are not at all where the concept of modern electric transportation started. That honor should fall squarely on the EV1. GM then used that tech to develop a hybrid, to which Toyota responded with the Prius...

But in terms of mainstream acceptance of electrified transportation, you are correct.

</nitpick>
 
GetOffYourGas said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started

I agree with what you're saying, but I take issue with the way you worded it. Hybrids are not at all where the concept of modern electric transportation started. That honor should fall squarely on the EV1. GM then used that tech to develop a hybrid, to which Toyota responded with the Prius...

But in terms of mainstream acceptance of electrified transportation, you are correct.

</nitpick>

different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!
 
RegGuheert said:
cwerdna said:
I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.
Call it what you will, Toyota sold nearly 71,000 copies of the XW10 according to Wikipedia. Of those 71,000 XW10s, it sounds like over 37,000 were the NHW10 style:
Wikipedia said:
Production commenced in December 1997 at the Takaoka plant in Toyota, Aichi, ending in February 2000 after cumulative production of 37,425 vehicles. Production recommenced in May 2000 at the Motomachi plant in the same area, before XW10 manufacture ended in June 2003 after a further 33,411 vehicles had been produced.
In other words, Toyota built more of the NHW10 style that you referred to as a "science experiment" than the NHW11, which you referred to as the first generation Prii. That doesn't sound like a science experiment to me. Perhaps the article is in error?
I'll have to check the production numbers. It drives me nuts that some "genius" decided to screw with the Prius wikipedia entry long ago and use XW crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses XWnn. It's always been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. (a few more at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Wiki" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). One can see identifier plates/labels at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Labels" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and Google for stuff like toyota nhw10 site:toyota.co.jp vs. toyota xw10 site:toyota.co.jp.

I didn't want to bother changing it as doing so had too many other repercussions.

I've ranted about this numerous times like at http://priuschat.com/threads/xw3-a-zvw30-h-zvw30l-ahxebw-1d-what-prius-do-i-have.125719/#post-1790341" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://priuschat.com/threads/what-kind-of-prius-do-i-have.100287/#post-1421582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; as it unfortunately causes confusion to newbies. :(

By "science experiment" I wasn't really referring to production numbers anyway. I'm talking about the technology and it being the first vehicle I'm aware of to use Hybrid Synergy Drive. It used D-cells (which I hear weren't very good) instead of prismatic form batteries. It was JDM-only. It had a "jump-starting" feature (see http://priuschat.com/attachments/12v_2_hvcharging-1-pdf.34033/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) that was removed on all Priuses that followed. Its engine was pretty wimpy and battery pack energy density low. Oh, and for those who own a JDM-only NHW10 outside Japan, the UI and controls are all in Japanese. I don't think any of Toyota's service manuals for it were ever translated (officially) from Japanese to other languages, as there wasn't a need to. So, it's a science experiment for them too. :)

Even now, I wouldn't recommend anyone buy a used NHW11, let alone a NHW10. I'd suggest they up their budget to a NHW20.
 
smkettner said:
I have my doubts Nissan could even ramp up production like Prius from 2003 to 2010.
It doesn't have to. Since the yearly sales are already double of Prius at the same stage ...

Assuming new generations in 2016 & 2020.

Code:
+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  60?  |       |       |
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |  80?  |       |       |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 | 100?  |       |       |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 | 140?  |       |       |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 | 180?  |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 | 220?  |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 | 260?  |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 | 320?  |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 | 400?  |       |       |
|  2010 |  >508 | >2119 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 |  >417 | >2536 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 |  >489 | >3025 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 |  >405 | >3430 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
-
 
I think with 3 factories on line and ready to build LEAFs it is entirely possible they could ramp up very well. Provided they have enough contracts on the raw materials for the batteries and motors.

Here's to it... still enjoying my 2013 1.5 model SL. 10k miles and all the bars are still there.
 
cwerdna said:
I'll have to check the production numbers. It drives me nuts that some "genius" decided to screw with the Prius wikipedia entry long ago and use XW crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses XWnn. It's always been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. (a few more at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Wiki" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). One can see identifier plates/labels at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Labels" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and Google for stuff like toyota nhw10 site:toyota.co.jp vs. toyota xw10 site:toyota.co.jp.

I didn't want to bother changing it as doing so had too many other repercussions.

I've ranted about this numerous times like at http://priuschat.com/threads/xw3-a-zvw30-h-zvw30l-ahxebw-1d-what-prius-do-i-have.125719/#post-1790341" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://priuschat.com/threads/what-kind-of-prius-do-i-have.100287/#post-1421582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; as it unfortunately causes confusion to newbies. :(

Yeah I've tried changing it about 20 times over the past few years only for it to be changed back within an hour. No matter what proof you put forwards, the moderators at wikipedia don't care. It's ridiculous.

As to Prius vs. Leaf sales, agreed you cannot compare early Leaf with 1997 Prius. You can compare it with the 2001 Prius, as that was the first "real" Prius sold in different markets including the US.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!

I think you are missing my point (or maybe I'm missing yours?).

I agreed with you that the Prius was more important for acceptance. My nitpick was about your use of the term "concept of electric transportation". To me, this implies from the supply side, not the consumer side.

A corollary might be with smartphones - the concept was pioneered with Blackberries, but didn't reach widespread acceptance until the iPhone came to town. Apple certainly didn't pioneer the smartphone business, but they brought it to the mainstream.

Again, this was just a nitpick anyway. We should probably move on...
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit
I never said the Prius had worldwide distribution. No argument here that Japan was the extent of their worldwide sales the first two years, but when comparing worldwide sales, you need to include those years.

Again, I am comparing bottom-line worldwide performance of the Prius versus the LEAF. The difference in their first two years was merely in their go-to-market strategy. There were some similarities and some differences:
- Both companies decided to build all of the production units in a single factory in Japan.
- Both companies limited production to about the same level for the first two years: ~20,000/year.
- Toyota chose to limit sales to Japan. This reduced their initial expense and their sales expense and also limited their exposure in case the product was a failure.
- Nissan chose to sell the LEAF widely in several different markets. This approach incurred additional up-front expenses and additional sales and marketing expenses, but it exposed Nissan to significantly more risk had the product failed.

In order to compare the LEAF to the Prius worldwide sales, it does not make sense to compare the first generation LEAF product performance with the second-generation Prius product performance.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!

I think you are missing my point (or maybe I'm missing yours?).

I agreed with you that the Prius was more important for acceptance. My nitpick was about your use of the term "concept of electric transportation". To me, this implies from the supply side, not the consumer side.

A corollary might be with smartphones - the concept was pioneered with Blackberries, but didn't reach widespread acceptance until the iPhone came to town. Apple certainly didn't pioneer the smartphone business, but they brought it to the mainstream.

Again, this was just a nitpick anyway. We should probably move on...


maybe I am speaking for only a very small set of people, myself included when I first experienced electric only operation that was enhanced by EV mode added to the 2010 Prius where it became a tease making me want more. or ask Phil who had to have felt the same way since his DIY plug in Prius trumps what Toyota could do BIGTIME.

it was then, and not before that I began to think EVs were viable. unlike CA'ians, we WA'ians did not have exposure to EVs so we really flipped out over our 6/10th of a mile EV glides thinking that was really something and it really was, so much so that I got a ZENN. a VERY short range, slow 2 seat EV that I made work (with a LOT of effort) for me for over 3 years.

But I have been to enough Prius meetings to know that I was not alone in nurturing this seed of thought and the Prius was the nourishment that made this idea grow.

as far as the Blackberry, it was a crap product that did not have any competition. there was nothing you could do on it without drilling down thru several menu levels and it lacked the very basics of consumer desires like pix, text, etc. it survived as long as it did because it had no real competition. when the competition showed up, it was obvious it would fail. as a smartphone tech, it was literally a joke and its ONLY worth was security but that advantage disappeared quickly and then it had nothing.

But that is where the LEAF is now. its a Blackberry but will it improve itself like the Iconic Prius (2004) or will it sit there like RIM did and run itself into a hole? guess we will find out in a year or two
 
I still don't see it, myself.

There is no difference between a Prius and any other car from the POV of the driver that I can really see. Apart from the flashing gimmick on the dashboard and the 'knowledge' of something different happening, you perform all the normal operations of a car and still go to the fuel station and refuel every couple of hundred miles.

If you didn't know beforehand something extra was happening under the bonnet, what would be the difference for driver?

So it seems to me that Prius sold on the basis of a gimmick. Whether the early models truly achieved a fuel saving still seems dubious to me, but it appears to have defeated the fuel consumption tests of the day.

An EV is a wholly different proposition. It does something very different in terms of the fuelling and the maintenance that the driver has to deal with. You, the driver, have to do different things and plan journeys differently, doing different things along the way. You do different things for servicing and maintaining the vehicle too, whereas Prius you still check all the fluid levels and go get an interim oil change if you want one, rust exhausts, etc., etc..

I see no different between the introduction of the Prius and the introduction of electronic fuel injection for the 1976 Cadillac Seville (which I happen to mention because I had one). It was neither the first use of that technology, nor did it make any difference to the driver's behaviour, apart from, arguably, visit the fuel station a little less.

So I don't see any connection for the mainstream driver between the desire to buy an ICE and buy a Prius. However, I do see a difference between ICE and EV because they have to fundamentally change the way they go about their driving. The only appeal hybrids offer is to people who consciously visualise that this technological difference changes things.

I think a piece of evidence towards this is the geeky way you are discussing early models!! It makes no difference where it is sold, it only makes a difference if you believe it makes a difference.

Reality is, hybrids don't really change anything and the only change is in attitude towards the car, whereas driving an EV really does change things.
 
donald said:
I still don't see it, myself.

There is no difference between a Prius and any other car from the POV of the driver that I can really see. Apart from the flashing gimmick on the dashboard and the 'knowledge' of something different happening, you perform all the normal operations of a car and still go to the fuel station and refuel every couple of hundred miles.

If you didn't know beforehand something extra was happening under the bonnet, what would be the difference for driver?

So it seems to me that Prius sold on the basis of a gimmick. Whether the early models truly achieved a fuel saving still seems dubious to me, but it appears to have defeated the fuel consumption tests of the day.

An EV is a wholly different proposition. It does something very different in terms of the fuelling and the maintenance that the driver has to deal with. You, the driver, have to do different things and plan journeys differently, doing different things along the way. You do different things for servicing and maintaining the vehicle too, whereas Prius you still check all the fluid levels and go get an interim oil change if you want one, rust exhausts, etc., etc..

I see no different between the introduction of the Prius and the introduction of electronic fuel injection for the 1976 Cadillac Seville (which I happen to mention because I had one). It was neither the first use of that technology, nor did it make any difference to the driver's behaviour, apart from, arguably, visit the fuel station a little less.

So I don't see any connection for the mainstream driver between the desire to buy an ICE and buy a Prius. However, I do see a difference between ICE and EV because they have to fundamentally change the way they go about their driving. The only appeal hybrids offer is to people who consciously visualise that this technological difference changes things.

I think a piece of evidence towards this is the geeky way you are discussing early models!! It makes no difference where it is sold, it only makes a difference if you believe it makes a difference.

Reality is, hybrids don't really change anything and the only change is in attitude towards the car, whereas driving an EV really does change things.

you could have saved me a lot of time by simply stating at the beginning that you "have never owned a Prius and the following statement proves it"
 
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