California ZEV (CARB) requirements for reference

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evnow

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Here is the actual ZEV requirement in CARB starting in 2012.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/cleandoc/clean_2009_my_hev_tps_12-09.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

carb-zev.PNG


(d) Requirements for Large Volume Manufacturers in Model Years 2012 through
2017.

(1) 2012 through 2014 Requirements. A manufacturer must meet the total ZEV
obligation with ZEVs or ZEV credits generated by such vehicles, excluding NEVs and Type 0
ZEVs, equal to at least 0.79% of its annual sales, using either production volume determination
method described in section C.2.1(b) No more than 50% of the total obligation may be met with
PZEVs, No more than 75% of the total obligation may be met with AT PZEVs. No more than
93.4% may be met with Enhanced AT PZEVs, Type 0 ZEVs, and NEVs, other than limits
described in section C.7.6. The entire requirement may be met solely with ZEVs.

(2) 2015 through 2017 Requirements. A manufacturer must meet its ZEV obligation
with ZEVs or ZEV credits generated by such vehicles, excluding NEVs and Type 0 ZEVs, equal
to at least 3% of its annual sales, using either production volume determination method described
in section C.2.1(b). No more than 42.8% of the total obligation may be met with PZEVs, No
more than 57.1% of the total obligation may be met with AT PZEVs. No more than 78.5% may
be met with Enhanced AT PZEVs, Type 0 ZEVs, and NEVs, other than limits described in section
C.7.6. The entire requirement may be met solely with ZEVs.

Details about the # of cars sold by each manufacturer in the US.

http://www.cncda.org/secure/GetFile.aspx?ID=2500" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Your subject of this thread in the "Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids" forum specifically states ZEV but various text included talks about PZEV. Can we list all the eligible vehicles in a table with perhaps a column for ZEV|PZEV and a MMYY|QTRYY?

about.com page said:
PZEVs come by way of California's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, a vital portion of the state's low emission vehicle program dating back to 1990. Throughout history, CA has set a tight green benchmark for stringent emissions laws that have in turn led to tighter federal regulations. Vehicles are required to meet tight emission test requirements for volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). While it was thought that battery electric vehicles would be numerous on roads by now, problems from cost to range--and even marketing issues--led to a modification of the ZEV mandate that gave birth to the PZEV, the partial zero emissions vehicle which allows automakers to meet their quotas through partial zero credits.
 
scottf200 said:
Your subject of this thread in the "Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids" forum specifically states ZEV but various text included talks about PZEV. Can we list all the eligible vehicles in a table with perhaps a column for ZEV|PZEV and a MMYY|QTRYY?
That quote from about.com is dated.

The basic idea behind this thread is - the new requirement has a minimum ZEV sales figure, that wasn't there earlier. Till '12, manufacturers can fulfil ZEV quota using PZEV sales. This is no longer the case from '12. That minimum floor is 0.79% (3% after '13).
 
We can get the # of cars sold by each manufacturer in CA here -> http://www.cncda.org/secure/GetFile.aspx?ID=2215" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, Toyota selss about 200K, Ford, GM & Honda about 150K, Nissan some 100K.

The minimum ZEV sales @ 0.79% need to be about 1,600 for Toyota, 1,200 for Ford, Honda & GM, 800 for Nissan. About 500 for Chrysler & Hyundai.

ps : Each BEV with 100 miles of UDDS range counts as 3 - and with >75miles range as 2.5. So, for eg., Honda would need only 500 or so Fit EVs to be sold. Fuel cell vehicles have even bigger multipliers, depending on range, upto 7 for >300 mile range. This is because of fast refuel requirements to get bigger credits.
 
evnow said:
This is because of fast refuel requirements to get bigger credits.

So does Nissan benefit by number of cars sold with QC? Or is "fast refuel" a non BEV thing?
 
TRONZ said:
evnow said:
This is because of fast refuel requirements to get bigger credits.

So does Nissan benefit by number of cars sold with QC? Or is "fast refuel" a non BEV thing?
Fast fueling says nearly the full range needs to be available in 10 minutes. Obviously a provision specifically inserted for fuel cells. Remember we have a Lobbycracy.

carb-zev-type.PNG


carb-zev-type-cr.PNG
 
Here is an excellent summary of zev credit regulations from tmc.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulatory-Credits-How-BMW-and-Daimler-Will-Fund-Tesla-s-Conquest-of-the-World" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you ever wondered why evs are sold only in CA and not other zev states, you will get the answer.

Also, there are travel provisions that allow California credits to count towards the requirement for other Section 177 states, and vice versa, but there is a discount depending on the state. Fundamentally, this reduces the overall requirement because a sale in one state partially fulfills the requirements in the others, which is why you see some compliance cars being marketed only in California. If they sell enough in California they can satisfy the requirements for all Section 177 states. The travel provisions were to have expired in 2017, which would have dramatically increased the ZEV requirement, but all of that has now been superceeded by the new joint CARB-EPA-NHTSA rule for 2017-2025.
 
evnow said:
The basic idea behind this thread is - the new requirement has a minimum ZEV sales figure, that wasn't there earlier. Till '12, manufacturers can fulfil ZEV quota using PZEV sales. This is no longer the case from '12. That minimum floor is 0.79% (3% after '13).
The chart says 3% starting in 2015 right?
 
evnow said:
Here is an excellent summery of zev credit regulations from tmc.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulatory-Credits-How-BMW-and-Daimler-Will-Fund-Tesla-s-Conquest-of-the-World" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you ever wondered why evs are sold only in CA and not other zev states, you will get the answer...

Interesting summary of the byzantine regulations.

But I think the poster's assumption of the contribution of ZEV credit sales to Tesla's future profits may be flawed, primarily due to what is probably an under-estimate of future competing BEV sales.

Looks like Nissan alone may have generated ~the same amount of credits in the first six months, as the writer assumed for the entire 2013 MY, and the LEAF is at a current monthly sales rate ~ three times that assumed.

What will Nissan's BEV sales levels (LEAF and any other models) have to be in this and future years, for it to enter the surplus credit market in a big way, destroying the authors thesis of a Tesla's ZEV credit near-monopoly, in a market with a shortage of sellers, and very high prices?

...Tesla will be one of the few manufacturers to have a large surplus of any kinds of credits through 2016, after which the bigger changes start to kick in. Tesla might end up being the only major seller of credits in these markets over the next decade. Even Nissan will likely have to horde its credits...

Keep in mind that the base requirement is something like 26,000 credits for 2012-2013, and Tesla only supplied ~4,800 in 2012. Only Leaf had substantial sales in California which help satisfy this requirement, with just 2 credits generated per Leaf sold, and a need to potentially bank credits for 2015+ when the base requirement goes up to 3%. Also, 2012 was a terrible year for Leaf sales with fewer than 8,000 sold in the U.S. Assigning 50% of U.S. sales to ZEV states is a generous estimate and would result in 8,000 ZEV credits for Nissan, with virtually none for anyone else...

To wrap this up, the important takeaway is that regulatory credits are a lucrative part of Tesla's income stream, and I see little evidence of that changing any time soon. ZEV credits are incredibly lucrative, and will be for a few years...
 
edatoakrun said:
...
But I think the poster's assumption of the contribution of ZEV credit sales to Tesla's future profits may be flawed, primarily due to what is probably an under-estimate of future competing BEV sales...

What will Nissan's BEV sales levels (LEAF and any other models) have to be in this and future years, for it to enter the surplus credit market in a big way, destroying the authors thesis of a Tesla's ZEV credit near-monopoly, in a market with a shortage of sellers, and very high prices?
...

Competition will have two effects. It will lower the demand from other manufacturers and two, if anyone else provides a surplus of ZEV credits it will increase supply.
I believe both of these reasons are why Tesla is planning on no ZEV credits in 4th quarter and why they are planning on this to have a smaller effect in the future.

It is not unreasonable to speculate though..
It looks like the Leaf falls into Tier 1.5 providing 2.5 credits while the Model S (both sizes) fits in tier IV (as long as the battery swapping qualifies them for that Tier) which generates 5 credits through 2018.

So per unit, Tesla is generating more credits, possibly twice as many next year.

I prefer taking Tesla's approach though and not planning on that income. Rather, mention it as a possibility and if it is there, great.
 
KJD said:
The chart says 3% starting in 2015 right?
Yes that makes it interesting. I would be surprised if all the big OEMs are not thinking of atleast one serious EV by that time. Paying a lot of money to Tesla (and Nissan, if they sell it) would not be palatable to the likes of Mercedes and VW.
 
evnow said:
KJD said:
The chart says 3% starting in 2015 right?
Yes that makes it interesting. I would be surprised if all the big OEMs are not thinking of atleast one serious EV by that time. Paying a lot of money to Tesla (and Nissan, if they sell it) would not be palatable to the likes of Mercedes and VW.


They don't need an EV; just ZEV. Toyota will move into Phase IV with a hydrogen car (2015 - 2017 model years).

And it doesn't have to "be serious", either. Just enough to meet the threshold to be allowed to sell juicy, polluting, oil burning cars, trucks, SUV's, etc, by the millions.
 
TonyWilliams said:
They don't need an EV; just ZEV. Toyota will move into Phase IV with a hydrogen car (2015 - 2017 model years).

And it doesn't have to "be serious", either. Just enough to meet the threshold to be allowed to sell juicy, polluting, oil burning cars, trucks, SUV's, etc, by the millions.

I think at 3%, it starts getting somewhat serious.

Nissan has sold 520k cars this year. 3% of that is 15k cars. Assuming 50% of ICE sales are covered by ZEV rules, it would be 7.5k cars in 5 months i.e. 1,500 cars per month. That is probably what Leaf is selling in ZEV states right now.

Toyota has to sell a lot more, with sales nearly double of Nissan. Same for Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler & Hyundai+Kia who all sell more than Nissan.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think Toyota can move that many H2 cars - given the price and threadbare infrastructure.
 
evnow said:
TonyWilliams said:
They don't need an EV; just ZEV. Toyota will move into Phase IV with a hydrogen car (2015 - 2017 model years).

And it doesn't have to "be serious", either. Just enough to meet the threshold to be allowed to sell juicy, polluting, oil burning cars, trucks, SUV's, etc, by the millions.

I think at 3%, it starts getting somewhat serious.

Nissan has sold 520k cars this year. 3% of that is 15k cars. ...

I believe the ZEV credits are based on cars sold in California, aren't they?
Still, it is almost 4 times current requirements.
 
Zythryn said:
I believe the ZEV credits are based on cars sold in California, aren't they?
Check rest of my post. 14 states require ZEV (under section 177 or something like that). Also check the link to TMC I posted.
 
Via GCC:

"California ARB considering modifications to ZEV regs to provide more flexibility for intermediate volume manufacturers"

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140903-arbzev.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Report here:

"STAFF REPORT: INITIAL STATEMENT OF REASONS FOR RULEMAKING

"PROPOSED 2014 AMENDMENTS TO THE ZERO EMISSION VEHICLE REGULATION"

http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2014/zev2014/zev14isor.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
evnow said:
Zythryn said:
I believe the ZEV credits are based on cars sold in California, aren't they?
Check rest of my post. 14 states require ZEV (under section 177 or something like that). Also check the link to TMC I posted.

The following states are CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Right now, all the credits can be earned in California, however, starting in 2018, the credits must be earned in all the states... EXCEPT for hydrogen. The manufacturers can sell hydrogen cars only in California and it counts in all CARB-ZEV states.

************

The "big six" Large Vehicle Manufacturers (LVM) auto manufacturers of the world (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler) were required to begin the modern day CARB-ZEV rules, starting in 2012. That's is exactly what Toyota did with Rav4 EV.

Therefore over three years, there are 900,000 oil burner Toyota cars sold in California.

The current 0.79% credits rule of Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) sales means 7110 credits over three model years. Each Rav4 EV earns 3 credits each, so 2370 battery electric cars solve that over the three model years.

But, the 9 credit hydrogen car need only 790 individual sales over three model years, or 263 per each model year during 2015 - 2017.

If the 9 credits for hydrogen are retained, then Toyota would only have to sell 5,333 hydrogen cars per year IN CALIFORNIA ONLY (none in the several other CARB-ZEV states) without any battery electric cars sold, even at 16% of total credits in model year 2025!!!!

That's about the current 2 month sales of the LEAF in the USA, and perhaps 3-6 months of the current California only LEAF sales. Again, I'm talking about 2025 model year ZEV compliance with nothing but a hydrogen car with California tax payer funded refueling stations.

Hydrogen is WIN - WIN for Toyota and others in the hydrogen camp that really don't wish to be in the ZEV game.

Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer of Toyota’s research and development group, told Automotive News Europe said that fuel cell vehicles won't be priced to compete with battery electrics before 2030.

Model year ---- ZEV Credit % of total annual sales

2012 ------------ 0.79%
2018 ------------ 2.00%
2019 ------------ 4.00%
2020 ------------ 6.00%
2021 ------------ 8.00%
2022 ----------- 10.00%
2023 ----------- 12.00%
2024 ----------- 14.00%
2025 ----------- 16.00%
 
TonyWilliams said:
The following states are CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont.

What is unique to New Jersey and Maine for them to appear on this ZEV program map, http://www.c2es.org/us-states-regions/policy-maps/zev-program" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
, but not make your list of coalition states?
 
Berlino said:
TonyWilliams said:
The following states are CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont.

What is unique to New Jersey and Maine for them to appear on this ZEV program map, http://www.c2es.org/us-states-regions/policy-maps/zev-program" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
, but not make your list of coalition states?

It's not "my" list:

CARB states - Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, District of Columbia.

CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont
 
TonyWilliams said:
It's not "my" list:

CARB states - Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, District of Columbia.

CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont

Well, disregarding the origin of the list, why is Maine not listed? Is adopting California's ZEV regulation not enough?

http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2014/zev2014/zev14isor.pdf

Page 19: Currently, nine states have adopted the California ZEV regulation. ---Maine and New Jersey are included.
 
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