Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

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I have updated the OP with an estimate of 65,000 LEAFs sold worldwide in 2014. This number is an extrapolation based on 50,000 LEAFs sold between February and November 2014 when the LEAF crossed the 100,000 and 150,000 marks, respectively, with a little end-of-year growth thrown in.

That puts LEAF worldwide sales at 2.25X sales of the Prius during their fourth full calendar year on the market and brings cumulative sales for the LEAF to nearly double that achieved by the Prius during their first four years and one month on the market.

In its fifth full calendar year of production, worldwide Prius sales dropped slightly during a period when gas prices were low. Likewise, the LEAF will face strong sales headwinds in 2015 due to low gasoline prices as well as the promise of longer-range EVs on the horizon. Nissan will need to at least maintain the 2014 sales rate in order to get to double the cumulative sales of the Prius during the upcoming year.

I will update the table again once worldwide sales numbers for 2014 are available.
 
RegGuheert said:
I have updated the OP with an estimate of 65,000 LEAFs sold worldwide in 2014. This number is an extrapolation based on 50,000 LEAFs sold between February and November 2014 when the LEAF crossed the 100,000 and 150,000 marks, respectively, with a little end-of-year growth thrown in.

That puts LEAF worldwide sales at 2.25X sales of the Prius during their fourth full calendar year on the market and brings cumulative sales for the LEAF to nearly double that achieved by the Prius during their first four years and one month on the market.

In its fifth full calendar year of production, worldwide Prius sales dropped slightly during a period when gas prices were low. Likewise, the LEAF will face strong sales headwinds in 2015 due to low gasoline prices as well as the promise of longer-range EVs on the horizon. Nissan will need to at least maintain the 2014 sales rate in order to get to double the cumulative sales of the Prius during the upcoming year.

I will update the table again once worldwide sales numbers for 2014 are available.

not sure we can really compare sales. they ideology of the two companies could not have been farther apart.

Nissan is fully on board with the LEAF and large volume manufacturing has been in their wheelhouse from day one.

Toyota started slowly with the Prius not realizing until MY 2004 that the demand was much greater than they could supply. This caused an extreme shortage until just before the release of MY 2007. So the sales numbers will be depressed but not by demand, it was by supply.

Toyota simply could not transition existing lines to build the Prius fast enough. I remember press releases when they announced they were increasing US wide volumes by like 15,000 a year or so and thinking well that might cover a few states...
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
not sure we can really compare sales. they ideology of the two companies could not have been farther apart.
There is some truth to this statement since the vision within Nissan was coming from Carlos Ghosn while the vision within Toyota was driven by a product manager with a passion for the project. That said, it does not follow that sales from the two cannot be compared. In fact, I am doing just that! The Toyota Prius is considered a very successful environmentally-friendly product offering, so this is a decent yardstick to use for measuring the LEAF's progress.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nissan is fully on board with the LEAF and large volume manufacturing has been in their wheelhouse from day one.
Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius. And, not surprisingly, they both sold approximately the same number of vehicles during that initial period. At the end of the second calendar year, both made some product changes and changed the manufacturing situation. Toyota moved the Prius to a different factory in Japan while Nissan expanded to three factories around the world.

Also, both products suffered from problems with their early traction batteries as well as difficulties with their 12V batteries occasionally going dead. Toyota has fully addressed both of those issues while the jury is still out on Nissan's response.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Toyota started slowly with the Prius not realizing until MY 2004 that the demand was much greater than they could supply. This caused an extreme shortage until just before the release of MY 2007. So the sales numbers will be depressed but not by demand, it was by supply.
The LEAF has also been constrained by supply on multiple occasions. Often this has been due to the long lead time required to ramp up new versions of the battery, which has a very long lead time.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Toyota simply could not transition existing lines to build the Prius fast enough. I remember press releases when they announced they were increasing US wide volumes by like 15,000 a year or so and thinking well that might cover a few states...
You are simply talking about differences in their go-to-market strategy. This is as much a product roll-out issue as anything else, so it is a part of the equation that is being compared. If Nissan has managed the introduction of the LEAF to the market much better than Toyota, then that will be reflected in the numbers here.

An important point to keep in mind is that both products have their major product improvement version occur during the sixth calendar year. That is when demand took off for the Prius and it is the point at which demand for the LEAF needs to take off for the LEAF to be able to possibly hold its own against the Prius over the next few years. Both products have drawn in competition as they have demonstrated the viability of the market, but Toyota was extremely successful at putting down virtually all of their competitors. I seriously doubt that Nissan can achieve this level of success with the LEAF, but it will be interesting to watch to see how things play out.
 
RegGuheert said:
Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius.
This is how it really played out.

First year - Leaf was really production constrained - exacerbated by the Tsunami and related problems.

Second year - Nissan increased the price (a result of Tsunami), which tanked sales. This meant - the roll out plan of Leaf was scaled back. So, Leaf's production is expanding a lot slower than initially envisioned.
 
This might be a bit narrow minded but I would prefer a comparison of USA sales only.
I don't know if Prius was how successful in other parts of the world or if the distribution can be compared directly.
 
smkettner said:
This might be a bit narrow minded but I would prefer a comparison of USA sales only.
I don't know if Prius was how successful in other parts of the world or if the distribution can be compared directly.
And I'm not opposed to that idea. However, every time I've thought of doing it, I've quickly realized that it is somewhat impossible to make a reasonable comparison. There are two main issues:

1) Sales of the Prius started in the middle of the calendar year while sales of the LEAf started in December.
2) Prius was already in a second generation by the time it sold in the US while LEAF was in its first generation.

If anyone can figure a way to make that comparison work, I'm interested to see it.
 
evnow said:
RegGuheert said:
Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius.
This is how it really played out.

First year - Leaf was really production constrained - exacerbated by the Tsunami and related problems.

Second year - Nissan increased the price (a result of Tsunami), which tanked sales. This meant - the roll out plan of Leaf was scaled back. So, Leaf's production is expanding a lot slower than initially envisioned.

citing actual events does not change my position that Nissan was aiming for full production from day one. The timing of the announcement of the TN and UK plant confirms this. Toyota had no such plans until well after the Nov 2003 Iconic launch.

it simply took time to get it all together. Toyota instead wanted to be assured of a market before they put out any money. They were lucky in that a downturn in the market allowed them to convert existing factories over to the Prius.
 
Updated OP to include full 2015 sales results. According to Wikipedia, Nissan sold 43,651 LEAFs in 2015, which brings the cumulative worldwide total after 61 months on the market to 201,991.

Compared with worldwide Prius sales, I see the following:

- LEAF experienced a 29% contraction in unit sales (from 61,507) during this fifth full year on the market. This exceeds the 4.8% contraction which the Toyota Prius experienced during its same full year on the market by a wide margin. (That was the Prius' second early contraction with a larger 14% contraction occurring in its second full year on the market.)

- U.S. gasoline prices during the Prius' fifth full year of sales (1998: $1.36/gal) were 28% HIGHER than U.S. gasoline prices during it's first full year of sales (1998: $1.06/gal).

- U.S. gasoline prices during the LEAF's fifth full year of sales (2015 estimated: $2.40/gal) were 34% LOWER than U.S. gasoline prices during it's first full year of sales (2012: $3.64/gal).

- LEAF unit sales during its FIFTH full year on the market slightly exceeded Prius unit sales during its SIXTH full year on the market.

- LEAF cumulative unit sales through 61 months on the market are 184% of Prius unit sales during its first 61 months on the market.
 
^^^
I haven't been following this thread and apparently I did reply to it earlier (e.g. http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=373052#p373052). I'm not sure what you're using as a baseline for first year, fifth year or whatever, but as we pointed out earlier, NHW10 Prius was JDM-only. That was the version that's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png and went on sale in December 97: http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm.

NHW11 aka "Classic" at the above URLs is NHW11 and is the first version that we ever got in the US, and presumably rest of world.

Also, I posted in the link above the waiting list situation. That eventually went away towards the end of Gen 2 (which spanned 04 to 09 model years).
 
cwerdna said:
^^^
I haven't been following this thread and apparently I did reply to it earlier (e.g. http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=373052#p373052). I'm not sure what you're using as a baseline for first year, fifth year or whatever, but as we pointed out earlier, NHW10 Prius was JDM-only. That was the version that's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png and went on sale in December 97: http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm.

NHW11 aka "Classic" at the above URLs is NHW11 and is the first version that we ever got in the US, and presumably rest of world.

Also, I posted in the link above the waiting list situation. That eventually went away towards the end of Gen 2 (which spanned 04 to 09 model years).

comparisons here mean less than nothing. For people like cwerdna and me, we know that Prius sales were hampered by supply BIG TIME. Toyota could have easily tripled sales of 2004-2005 Priuses if they had been smart enough to build that many.

Just an example of the demand at the time. I had a 2004 Prius base model, minimum options that was $20,344 out the door (WA State had tax exemption on hybrids at the time) on June 30th, 2004. I drove it 26 months, put 31,000 miles on it and it was in an accident on Aug 28th, 2006 when a truck turned left in front of me.

Because demand had driven sale prices of both new and used Priuses thru the roof, the other lady's insurance company paid me $23,400 for the car. I then put in another $1200 (tax exemption still in place!) and bought a 2006 Prius IV with the insurance payout.

so I essntially drove a new car for 2+ years and traded it in for another new (and better car!) car for $1200... not a bad deal I think :)
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
comparisons here mean less than nothing.
If this comparison is not of interest to you, then why do you click on the thread?

Rather than rehashing this again-and-again, please simply read my previous response here:
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit
I never said the Prius had worldwide distribution. No argument here that Japan was the extent of their worldwide sales the first two years, but when comparing worldwide sales, you need to include those years.

Again, I am comparing bottom-line worldwide performance of the Prius versus the LEAF. The difference in their first two years was merely in their go-to-market strategy. There were some similarities and some differences:
- Both companies decided to build all of the production units in a single factory in Japan.
- Both companies limited production to about the same level for the first two years: ~20,000/year.
- Toyota chose to limit sales to Japan. This reduced their initial expense and their sales expense and also limited their exposure in case the product was a failure.
- Nissan chose to sell the LEAF widely in several different markets. This approach incurred additional up-front expenses and additional sales and marketing expenses, but it exposed Nissan to significantly more risk had the product failed.

In order to compare the LEAF to the Prius worldwide sales, it does not make sense to compare the first generation LEAF product performance with the second-generation Prius product performance.
 
just pointing out the obvious on one reason the Prius sales were lower. but thanks for the reminder. I hadn't realized this thread was that old. I had no recollection of any previous responses
 
Updated the OP with 2016 sales numbers. With the Nissan LEAF leading worldwide EV sales in 2016 at 51,882 units delivered, the LEAF has outsold the Toyota Prius in each of its first six years of sales and has a cumulative sales lead over the Prius of 166% of Prius (254K units versus 153K units) sales during its first 73 months on the market.

The next sales year is when the Toyota Prius had its breakout year with a tripling of unit deliveries. Considering that the Nissan has not yet given the LEAF a full product refresh, it is not likely to deliver the 126K units that Toyota delivered with the Prius in its 7th year. But Nissan is likely to maintain a slim cumulative lead by the end of next year.

The good news is that even though 2017 LEAF sales will almost certainly be eclipsed by 2004 Prius sales, one of the main reasons for this is that the BEV market is MUCH more diverse in 2017 than the HEV market was in 2004. Prius was the very clear HEV market leader with competitors selling tiny volumes by comparison. While the Nissan LEAF lead the BEV market in 2016, it has a large number of competitors selling in respectable volumes.

In any case, expect to see the sales number for the Nissan LEAF II and other BEVs grow significantly as range increases significantly.
 
The Nissan LEAF is global top seller for 2017 through April.
RegGuheert said:
The next sales year is when the Toyota Prius had its breakout year with a tripling of unit deliveries. Considering that the Nissan has not yet given the LEAF a full product refresh, it is not likely to deliver the 126K units that Toyota delivered with the Prius in its 7th year. But Nissan is likely to maintain a slim cumulative lead by the end of next year.
I have updated the OP by projecting 2017 sales to be 3X current sales or 55,000. That is less than half of the Prius' seventh-full-year sales, but will put the LEAF at 309,000 cumulative sales, which is about 111% of Prius cumulative sales at the same point.

I do not expect LEAF 2 sales to explode like those of the Prius refresh due to the many entries currently in the BEV market. The Prius had no such competition back in 2004, as discussed previously:
RegGuheert said:
The good news is that even though 2017 LEAF sales will almost certainly be eclipsed by 2004 Prius sales, one of the main reasons for this is that the BEV market is MUCH more diverse in 2017 than the HEV market was in 2004. Prius was the very clear HEV market leader with competitors selling tiny volumes by comparison. While the Nissan LEAF lead the BEV market in 2016, it has a large number of competitors selling in respectable volumes.
 
RegGuheert said:
I do not expect LEAF 2 sales to explode like those of the Prius refresh due to the many entries currently in the BEV market. The Prius had no such competition back in 2004

So would a better comparison actually be all affordable BEVs in 2017 versus all hybrids in 2004? Do we have access to those sales numbers?
 
I have updated the table in the OP of this thread. Based on the LEAF's 2017 sales of only about 1/3 of what the Prius had in its equivalent year, it now barely holds a cumulative lead over the Prius at the same point in its life. This is certainly the result of the refresh coming over a year earlier in the Prius' life.

What's interesting here is that after seven full years of sales, cumulative LEAF sales are STILL (barely) edging out the Prius, even though the LEAF has many more viable competitors in the market. And going forward, it has rather compelling competition now shipping in the form of the Chevy Bold and the Tesla Model 3. If it manages to approach the 175,000 units that the Prius achieved in its eighth year on the market, that would be a truly remarkable feat given the difference in competition level. Frankly, it would be amazing if the MY2018 and MY2019 LEAFs could even muster 100,000 sales this coming calendar year, but we'll keep watching and see how things turn out.

What we are clearly seeing in TOTAL BEV sales versus TOTAL hybrid sales in the earlier period is that the uptake rate of BEVs is quite a bit faster than the uptake rate of gasoline-electric hybrids was 13 years prior. Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.
 
RegGuheert said:
Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.

I agree with your conclusion but not your reason. I don't think BEVs sales will plateau either (although the pending end of tax credits could cause a temporary one). I don't think it's because of the number of offerings, though.

10-15 years ago, hybridization was starting to spread across more offerings from more manufacturers. The trouble with hybrids is that their only real advantage to the owner is lower fuel costs. Otherwise, it's just another ICEV. And one with an extra expensive part to potentially replace (as was the case with Honda's hybrid batteries).

BEVs, on the other hand, offer many benefits beyond lower fuel costs. They are much more convenient to fuel (at home, over night). They are more pleasant to drive than their ICEV counterparts (opposite that of hybrids). Etc. People are starting to catch on to these benefits (and tell their friends!). IMO, that's going to be a bigger driver towards keeping BEV sales growing than simply the expanding number of options on the market.
 
Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
RegGuheert said:
Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.
I agree with your conclusion but not your reason.
I agree with all you wrote here. I will also note that, unlike HEVs, the incremental improvements in BEVs are not plateauing, but are continuing in a significant way. While efficiency is probably close to its physical limit, range, charging speed, battery durability, price, and options are all improving steadily. These continual improvements translate directly into a larger addressed market.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.

Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).
 
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