How long 'til 4th bar drops?

No worries. The 4th dropped a few weeks ago. That last heat wave in So Cal did it in for sure.

New battery already installed. I do hope this new chemistry holds up better for him.

My RAV4 just turned 21,000 miles with what seems like 5% or less in capacity loss.
At this point on LEAF I was down the first bar or about 15%.

Why does everyone rush to the dealer as soon as the battery looses the 8th bar? Seems like you would want to hold out as long as possible on the new battery. What if they come out with a slightly better battery chemistry a few months after you get your replacement. Especially since they are working on something with a lot more range for 2017.... which most likely means it is already done and testing.

I can understand if you truly need the range.

A number of reasons: They are already near the limit of the warranty period (I was within 17 miles), they need the extra range for the car to be practical again, or they realize that it will be quite some time, if ever, before any new chemistry beyond the Lizard trickles down to the replacement batteries...

gemrough said:

Why does everyone rush to the dealer as soon as the battery looses the 8th bar?

Click to expand...

I understand if you are near warranty limit (mileage or time) but if you had another 8k miles left and/or 10 months. What would be the rush. Also seems like it would be fairly easy to get the car battery to deteriorate faster if one wanted...

It seems like it should be easy, but that isn't necessarily so. In CA this summer, we've had much lower temps than usual. I was pretty sure that one more summer would do the job for me, but summer's over, and that ninth bar clings stubbornly.

Many of the proposed schemes actually have very little effect. Just running the battery down using A/C or heat does little. Yes, you can add a few charge/discharge cycles that way, but cycling causes relatively minor degradation. Heat is number one, and calendar aging is probably number two. To get the battery hot, you need two things... high ambient temps and hard use or lots of quick charging. If I had a QC port, and the nearest charger weren't 84 miles away, I'd try that.

After I complete my normal commute, my car only has about 4 kWh left, and that'll be shrinking as soon as I start using the heater this winter. So I'm pretty much stuck without enough energy left to heat up the battery.

I'm also convinced that capacity bar loss is inhibited by the car's firmware in cooler weather to prevent false indications due to temporary capacity loss caused by low battery temperature. My car lost the tenth bar this past April, even though the Ahr reading was low enough to qualify clear back
in October. I am afraid that the same thing will happen this fall/winter, and my warranty expires in January.

To top it off, we do not know exactly what triggers loss of the ninth bar. Judging from the bell-shaped distribution we see (peak of the bell-shaped curve is around 43.3 Ahr), a number of factors enter in. It's not just a simple Ahr or GID value; there's more to it than that. Some speculate that the car must remain below some capacity level for a prolonged period like 30 or 60 days. I think the battery needs to stay above some critical temperature for some time in order to permit bar loss. It's difficult to hit a target that is undefined...

I've seen 42.8ahr a couple of times, the 9th bar is still there, probably for not much longer. I did lose #10 in February this year, so CA winters are probably not cold enough to inhibit capacity loss calcs.

gemrough said:

Why does everyone rush to the dealer as soon as the battery looses the 8th bar? Seems like you would want to hold out as long as possible on the new battery.

Click to expand...

Since I have the Tesla now, I'm going to *try* to hold out as long as possible before getting the new battery. I need to lose at least another 2 AHr, so I may not lose my 9th bar for several months, since summer is almost over here. I'm hoping that there is always the possibility Nissan will change their minds on the 30 kWh upgrade, or there might be another chemistry change next year that would be to my advantage.

To gemrough: If my ninth bar dropped right now, I'd wait until I was sure that the hot weather was done before I got the battery replaced. I can squeeze about 60 miles out of the car running all the way to turtle. Limiting it to VLBW, a safer margin, cuts that by about 5 miles.

Once it gets cold, range is going to drop to 40-45 miles. My commute is 36. A quick trip to Home Depot adds 5 miles. Not a comfortable reserve. Running out of battery on the way home when it's dark and windy and cold is not on my list of fun things.

Then there's the almost unimaginable luxury of having full range again. Charging to 80% and having range left over after my commute. Driving the Leaf to the retirement home in the mountains we're fixing up. Using the climate control timer to pre-warm the car in the morning instead of having to manually turn on the heat an hour early. Not having to haul the car to and from the dealer on a flatbed. You know, the good old days...

-Karl (65.6%)

kolmstead said:

To top it off, we do not know exactly what triggers loss of the ninth bar. Judging from the bell-shaped distribution we see (peak of the bell-shaped curve is around 43.3 Ahr), a number of factors enter in. It's not just a simple Ahr or GID value; there's more to it than that. Some speculate that the car must remain below some capacity level for a prolonged period like 30 or 60 days. I think the battery needs to stay above some critical temperature for some time in order to permit bar loss. It's difficult to hit a target that is undefined...

Click to expand...

True.. My guess is that time@temp drives the Ahr calculation but temp probably doesn't factor into the bar loss..
Time@AhrCap or #cycles@AhrCap or #miles@AhrCap probably more likely to factor into bar loss.. It would be interesting to see the daily values (average temp, mileage, AhrCap) for various people for the weeks leading up to the 4th bar loss... That could be illuminating..
If it turns out to be cycle based then just take a bunch or really short drives when you get down to 43.5Ahr or so

+10 on what kolmstead stated.

My capacity loss was probably fast that first summer of 2011.
Hottest TN summer in two decades.
104F high several days in a row.

But the following summers have been much more average.
Did 168 DCQC while they were working and free.

Currently none working within driving range.

I have lost three bars, but with AHr having recovered to 47 with cooling weather and with Nissan's poor capacity warranty running out on May 17, pretty unlikely I lose bar four in time.

Nothing easy about getting appropriate compensation under Nissan's warranty.

Ok, what are your thoughts: Will he drop the 4th bar?

A friend purchased a used 2011 with less than 30,000 miles just recently. It's at 9 bars and has a May 2011 build date. We measured it this past weekend and it was 43 Ahr. I gave him the standard advice, but unfortunately no DCQC's around here and temps are starting to drop to highs in the 80's lows in the 40's. Oh, he now really enjoys the 75+ mph driving, and full charge/discharge cycles.

Reddy said:

Ok, what are your thoughts: Will he drop the 4th bar?

A friend purchased a used 2011 with less than 30,000 miles just recently. It's at 9 bars and has a May 2011 build date. We measured it this past weekend and it was 43 Ahr. I gave him the standard advice, but unfortunately no DCQC's around here and temps are starting to drop to highs in the 80's lows in the 40's. Oh, he now really enjoys the 75+ mph driving, and full charge/discharge cycles.

Click to expand...

Sounds like he is on track if he can deplete the battery daily or more often, however if the car doesn't have the P3227 update it is crucial he gets is done ASAP.

Valdemar said:

however if the car doesn't have the P3227 update it is crucial he gets is done ASAP.

Click to expand...

Why :?: :?: :?:
I understsnd Nissan will do that before approving battery replacement.
Although their verbiage would not indicate that it is required.

But isn't it better to lose four bars pre-P3227 six weeks before the five year mark and hope the P3227 uncertainty clears before the five year deadline :?:

If it doesn't there is even more to debate with Nissan :?:

And at least one person complained enough to the right people to get a battery replacement outside the capacity warranty requirements :?:

^^ It can send the AHr reading higher and it will take several months for the value to come down to the previous level effectively delaying your eligibility for warranty replacement. There were reports capacity bars reappearing after this update. As the warranty eligibility is based solely on the number of capacity bars and you do it just before the warranty is up and find yourself in the above situation you may have fun time talking to Nissan trying to convince them they should honor your warranty claim when the bars finally drop but 5 years are over.

Valdemar said:

... As the warranty eligibility is based solely on the number of capacity bars and you do it just before the warranty is up and find yourself in the above situation you may have fun time talking to Nissan trying to convince them they should honor your warranty claim when the bars finally drop but 5 years are over.

Click to expand...

But the other way you may not lose four bars before the time limit.
Then you have almost nothing to make a case on.

Unless you are persistent and lucky enough to get battery replacement outside the capacity warranty requirements.

TimLee said:

Valdemar said:

... As the warranty eligibility is based solely on the number of capacity bars and you do it just before the warranty is up and find yourself in the above situation you may have fun time talking to Nissan trying to convince them they should honor your warranty claim when the bars finally drop but 5 years are over.

Click to expand...

But the other way you may not lose four bars before the time limit.
Then you have almost nothing to make a case on.

Unless you are persistent and lucky enough to get battery replacement outside the capacity warranty requirements.

Click to expand...

I may be wrong, but I don't think we saw any long-lasting effects from P3227, there were reports of AHr going up but stabilizing to pre-update levels couple of months after. It is a gamble either way, but given what others reported and only 8 months out till the warranty is no more I'd probably just do it now than wait until 8 bars. There is also a chance he takes a car to a dealer for some other reason and they apply P3227 anyway when it is too late but before the bar drops, even if they are told not to do it.

I forgot about the software update. I'll have him check to make sure it's been done. Also, we need to clear his VIN to make sure his vehicle hasn't opted out. The big unknown is temperature. I checked my battery this morning and it was 60 F (didn't charge overnight and parked outside for the cooling). Not much thermal degradation at those temps, just calendar time. I see a 10-15F temp difference between charging or not, so I've told him to always charge to 100% and drive it like a bat out of hell. He's got miles to burn. Finally, we need to find out the sold date. Even though the manufacture date was May 2011, it might not have been sold until Fall 2011, which would mean another very hot el nino summer.

2011s were pre-orders, so they typically didn't sit on a lot. I would guess it was sold in June-July, but you never know.

Valdemar said:

2011s were pre-orders, so they typically didn't sit on a lot. I would guess it was sold in June-July, but you never know.

Click to expand...

True.
But there were some that did the preorder and then did not take delivery.
A guy I worked with bought one of those.
Possible a dealer might have had an orphan on the lot for a rather long time.

GregH said:

kolmstead said:

To top it off, we do not know exactly what triggers loss of the ninth bar. Judging from the bell-shaped distribution we see (peak of the bell-shaped curve is around 43.3 Ahr), a number of factors enter in. It's not just a simple Ahr or GID value; there's more to it than that. Some speculate that the car must remain below some capacity level for a prolonged period like 30 or 60 days. I think the battery needs to stay above some critical temperature for some time in order to permit bar loss. It's difficult to hit a target that is undefined...

Click to expand...

True.. My guess is that time@temp drives the Ahr calculation but temp probably doesn't factor into the bar loss..
Time@AhrCap or #cycles@AhrCap or #miles@AhrCap probably more likely to factor into bar loss.. It would be interesting to see the daily values (average temp, mileage, AhrCap) for various people for the weeks leading up to the 4th bar loss... That could be illuminating..
If it turns out to be cycle based then just take a bunch or really short drives when you get down to 43.5Ahr or so

Click to expand...

I'm at the point (43.5 AHr) where I wish I knew the answer(s) to these questions. If it's simply "soak time" for a given AHr trigger (say 44), then there's not much I can do. However, if it was cycle-based, then that's something I can control. I also wonder if there has to be some sort of temperature cycle (I remember I lost my 3rd bar on an isolated "hot" day last winter) event.