Nissan IDS concept shows Next Gen Leaf with 60kwh

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DaveinOlyWA said:
DeeAgeaux said:
edatoakrun said:
but I think Infiniti would be nuts to not proceed with the LE, now that it has access to a 60 kWh pack and drivetrain off-the shelf.

The problem is price and specifications versus a fully loaded Gen II LEAF on the one hand and a base Tesla Model S on the other hand.

Price it too close to a top spec LEAF and you will just cannibalize LEAF sales without added profit to Nissan Motor Company's bottom line.

Price it too close to a base 2018 Model S Infiniti likely suffers the same fate as Cadillac. Infiniti's halo EV gets ELR'd with huge discounts and old stock on dealer lots.

an infiniti would be priced in the mid 40's, LEAF in the mid 30's. nothing else makes sense. its becoming obvious that the issue is not the level of the technology, its the economy of providing it. That is what Nissan is waiting for...

So you feel confident an Infiniti in the mid 40's without a dedicated nationwide fast charging network will do well in the market when there is a Tesla Model 3 with a base price in the $35k-$38k price range and a Tesla Model S with a base price of $70k both with a dedicated nationwide fast charging network?
 
DeeAgeaux said:
So you feel confident an Infiniti in the mid 40's without a dedicated nationwide fast charging network will do well in the market when there is a Tesla Model 3 with a base price in the $35k-$38k price range and a Tesla Model S with a base price of $70k both with a dedicated nationwide fast charging network?

I feel a lot more confident that Nissan/Infiniti would deliver an EV in the mid 40's than Tesla model S will be delivered with both $7,500 rebate and $35k price tag. - I'm not confident that Infiniti will sell the EV.

Think about it, Before deliveries started - Tesla model S was always promoted as a sub $50k car, and Tesla delivered on that promise. The 40kWh Tesla with $7,500 rebate do exist, just they stopped being available for sale before delivery started.

Tesla markets vehicles like a professional silicon valley company, first deliveries are of the premium product, so to recoup the massive up front r&d costs firsts. Just like Intel etc...

I think that roughly the existing 100k model S buyers will instinctively put a deposit down on a model 3, just to hold a place for a family member etc. some won't, but others will place 4 deposits down, etc. Those will tend to creep up in price in delivery priority.

So yes, a perhaps 1-2 year wait to get a $35k base price price Tesla and miss out on the federal rebate or pay $40k to get a longer range Infiniti thats eligible for the federal rebate and is able to be delivered. Thats the choice, (or perhaps a used Tesla S)
 
DeeAgeaux said:
So you feel confident an Infiniti in the mid 40's without a dedicated nationwide fast charging network will do well in the market when there is a Tesla Model 3 with a base price in the $35k-$38k price range and a Tesla Model S with a base price of $70k both with a dedicated nationwide fast charging network?

My statement is based on the fact that the infiniti and the Tesla 3 are likely to be priced the same which means the LEAF will undoubtedly have other competition on the same price level but Tesla will not be one of them.
 
DeeAgeaux said:
So you feel confident an Infiniti in the mid 40's without a dedicated nationwide fast charging network will do well in the market when there is a Tesla Model 3 with a base price in the $35k-$38k price range and a Tesla Model S with a base price of $70k both with a dedicated nationwide fast charging network?

Depends on your definition of "do well". It may not sell 500k a year (like Musk says 3 will) - but then, few Infiniti models do today.

One thing to understand is not everyone will be looking to use even next gen EVs for long distance travel. It is still a pain compared to an ICE - which most families will continue to have. Long distance EVs from Nissan, Infiniti, GM or BMW become replacements for current Leafs and other EVs performing essentially local travel duties - but much better without range anxiety than what Leaf does now.

BTW, I expect Infiniti EV to be price competitive with Model 3, esp. when compared with trims with same features.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
DeeAgeaux said:
So you feel confident an Infiniti in the mid 40's without a dedicated nationwide fast charging network will do well in the market when there is a Tesla Model 3 with a base price in the $35k-$38k price range and a Tesla Model S with a base price of $70k both with a dedicated nationwide fast charging network?

My statement is based on the fact that the infiniti and the Tesla 3 are likely to be priced the same which means the LEAF will undoubtedly have other competition on the same price level but Tesla will not be one of them.

I'm more considering availability,
LEAF as the cheaper option
Infiniti as the $35-$45 option that can be delivered in time to get the tax rebate
Tesla 3 as the $35-$45 trim which generally won't be delivered in time to get the tax rebate
Tesla 3 as the $45-$70 trim that might be delivered in time to get the tax rebate

and as $7500 is 20% of 37k, thats significant enough to make a level of different buyers, (of course there will be overlap)

the only way for the $35k-$45k trim to be delivered early is for the $45k-$70k trim level Tesla 3 to be a woeful car whose value proposition is akin to Cadillac ELR.
 
I'll go ahead and put my 2 cents out there...Even with 60 kWh from a known mfg...even with all that usable energy in the 'tank'...it's one drive and yer done. What I'm saying, most all other things being equal, I'm going for the nationwide charging network at Insane charging speeds which I'm comparing relative to my current Leaf and infrastructure (OR and WA has lots of charging stations, just need more stalls per location!)

So, really, Infiniti (or Nissan, really) just needs to pony up and get on the Supercharger bandwagon or I'm moving on after my Leaf lease is up. And i by no means even have the means to buy a Tesla, but I do see the value in that charging network. It's HUGE for so many good reasons.

200 plus miles is great! But where out there on the road are you going to charge to go another 200 miles? the Chademo network is good and adequate, but I am looking for COMPLETE and TOTAL EV solution. We have a PiP in our household for those longer trips right now BECAUSE it can be fueled across the country. My next EV will also have that.

Supercharger network is the key here over anything that 'only' has a big battery.

Range is great when u can get back home with energy to spare. I doubt gas cars in their beginnings would venture where they couldn't fuel. just saying.

Yes, charging at home is awesome. Charging on road trips will also have to be awesome.
 
evnow said:
Finman, I understand what you are saying. I'm just saying not everyone is like you.
Yup. I would be very happy with 60kwh, would keep the truck for hauling and long family vacation type trips, other two cars would be electric. I don't care so much about a recharging infrastructure, though it would be nice. I certainly would not pay the premium I expect to see between Leaf and Model 3, for that availability, as my current use model is about 95+% charging at home, and will probably increase, with greater range "in the tank" of the next gen models. But to be honest, I will only be buying on the used market, so there might be some compression in pricing between a 3 year old Leaf and 3 year old Model 3, by then.
 
Lets be honest here. Tesla's SC network is already sagging under the weight of user abuse so what do you think will happen when 100,000 III's are added to the mix.

the days of unlimited free will be exactly that. numbered in days...
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Lets be honest here. Tesla's SC network is already sagging under the weight of user abuse ...
:?:
I do not follow Tesla that closely yet.
Could you provide some examples or links to documentation of abuse :?:
 
I'm going to play contrarian: if radical leaps in performance are available through battery gens 2.1 thru 2.3 which offer exact volumetric fit (or involves only a suspension tweak for enough clearance) why not try to squeeze a 2017/18/19 out of the existing Leaf tooling with just a power battery upgrade, and maybe a skin job and electronics tweaks?

Tooling is crazy expensive, and volume production per re-tooling is the key to auto-industry profits. The Tesla S debuted in mid 2012 and there's no talk of a redo of of much that's dimensional/tooling related, but all kinds of progress in battery, power delivery, and motors.

Is there anything inherently outdated about the rest of the Leaf, that a 80% to 100% leap in capacity to 60kWh can't "solve"?

Bad range? Double it with 60kWh and underprice the Bolt with a proven design
Stale styling? Skin job, not all new.
Out of date electronics/controls? Swap a few modules
Need big weight chop? Carbon-Alloy hybrid rims or a carbon fiber floor pan might do it (and give you clearance for that tall 60kWh battery

I think you could just as easily see a second low/sporty 4-seat Leaf "dropped" onto the current Leafs floorpan.

To me it makes sense to keep working the battery and the roofline and not much else:
- Leaf Sport 4-seater (low-roof version; low drag, cutting edge styling but also ceiling too low for passenger #5)
- Leaf (today's model, but twice the range)
- e-NV200 (big empty box sitting on same floor pan as above; maybe a gearing change to be a practical 6/7 seater)
 
Yes the sagging Supercharger network. huh. what is it called when there is nothing to compare it to? let me know how those cross country trips work in a brand new 60 kWh Leaf. THAT ain't happening without a charging network. You just bought more battery than you can use. which is fine. even i would like more. but my current Leaf is regional. I've done 300 miles in a day. But things heat up and things take too long to charge.

Charging at 40 kW every 150 miles or so isn't going to cut it for an all day/several days trip. Maybe Nissan has a secret plan for such eventualities...

Until then: http://www.treehugger.com/cars/tesla-passes-500-supercharger-stations-milestone-over-2800-individuals-superchargers.html
 
finman100 said:
Yes the sagging Supercharger network. huh. what is it called when there is nothing to compare it to? let me know how those cross country trips work in a brand new 60 kWh Leaf.
Cross country trips aren't really the market for electric cars. If you're going more than 400+ miles (where you'd have to refuel in almost any ICE car), you're going to do it in a hybrid that refuels anywhere in 15 minutes. It'll be 10+ years before it is worth re-working the car to chase the cross-country market.

And if this is "the problem" and given that "the fix" is external to the car, that argues even more strongly for not reworking the current Leaf beyond continuous improvements to range driven by battery improvements.

There is a much more important market for trips like Boston - New York, Detroit - Cleveland, Cinci - Cleveland, NY-DC, Chicago -St Louis Most "long" important "business" trips Americans do end up falling in the 120mi to 240mi to 360mi range, which a 200 mile car and today's charging stations can basically cover, particularly if you charge up before you leave home and "when you get there", you may never need a charging stop at all.

A 200mile car makes all of those practical with, at most, a single "on-the-road" stop (assuming you charge while at both ends) and more importantly for city slickers, eliminates range anxiety for "weekend/getaway/vacation" stuff like
[*]DC-to-Delaware Shore,
[*]Philly-to-Jersey Shore,
[*]Boston-to-Cape Cod
[*]Boston-to-Ski
[*]NYC-to-Catskills/Berkshires/Poconos,
[*]LA to Palm Springs
[*]Seattle to San Juan Island(s)
[*]Sacramento - Lake Tahoe

...all of which are about 125 miles, and are what they are because people accept 2-hour drives as their personal limit for "away" trips, regardless of how far the car can go.
 
All great examples!

http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/24/tesla-road-trip/

Two-car households (i am in this group) will undoubtedly see more EV range as an incentive to go EV for half the garage.

I'm looking for the full garage of gas-replacing cars. :cool:

Single-car households will have to decide on limiting their travels to 200 EV miles (ok, 400 RT), or look for a car with more and faster charging infrastructure. Both are wins, but to truly replace a gas car a charging network is a MUST. And at least one mfg is doing WAY more than the other EV mfgs in this department. C'mon Nissan! Get going on the charging if you are going to bring a longer distance 60 kWh Leaf.

PS LOVE, LOVE, LOVE my Leaf! But I want to drive further on actual road trips, like the link above. Well, I would not need to set any records. ;)
 
TimLee said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Lets be honest here. Tesla's SC network is already sagging under the weight of user abuse ...
:?:
I do not follow Tesla that closely yet.
Could you provide some examples or links to documentation of abuse :?:

no. a minimal effort in research should turn up how some Tesla owners are using the SCs for daily use. This is a problem that will not go away with a slap on the wrist and a suggestive letter
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
no. a minimal effort in research should turn up how some Tesla owners are using the SCs for daily use. This is a problem that will not go away with a slap on the wrist and a suggestive letter
Agreed. It is adequately documented. But I suspect that Tesla will simply stop offering free supercharging to new sales after a certain date or models below a certain MSRP (they could bear the losses when all they sold/sell is $75k to $100k Model S and X cars, but not with a flood of 3s at $35k)
 
Arlington said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
no. a minimal effort in research should turn up how some Tesla owners are using the SCs for daily use. This is a problem that will not go away with a slap on the wrist and a suggestive letter
Agreed. It is adequately documented. But I suspect that Tesla will simply stop offering free supercharging to new sales after a certain date or models below a certain MSRP (they could bear the losses when all they sold/sell is $75k to $100k Model S and X cars, but not with a flood of 3s at $35k)

I reckon Tesla will maintain their free for life supercharging, just making it unhappy for those who recharge within 70miles of home etc.
 
ydnas7 said:
Arlington said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
no. a minimal effort in research should turn up how some Tesla owners are using the SCs for daily use. This is a problem that will not go away with a slap on the wrist and a suggestive letter
Agreed. It is adequately documented. But I suspect that Tesla will simply stop offering free supercharging to new sales after a certain date or models below a certain MSRP (they could bear the losses when all they sold/sell is $75k to $100k Model S and X cars, but not with a flood of 3s at $35k)

I reckon Tesla will maintain their free for life supercharging, just making it unhappy for those who recharge within 70miles of home etc.

I've always assumed that Tesla will maintain "free for life" for the high-end S/X cars, and them only. I assume the Model III will be a pay-as-you-go. They already have the communications necessary to set up a billing account for each car. If things get really bad, they could stop the "free for life" for all new cars. Eventually those cars will come off the road.

finman100 said:
C'mon Nissan! Get going on the charging if you are going to bring a longer distance 60 kWh Leaf.

Nissan wants others to build out the chargers so they can focus on the cars. Personally, I think the No-Charge-To-Charge program has potential to kickstart those networks. Nissan gets a selling point to sell more cars, and the network providers have a guaranteed source of income during the duration of the program. Miracles haven't happened overnight, but give it time, it could work out. So while Nissan isn't following Tesla's path, they aren't exactly doing nothing with regards to infrastructure.
 
60kWh should be a tipping point in EV use. See this great article, Can EVs handle the distances we drive? (from which I've linked the illustrations, below)

Key to understanding this is to see that EVs need not duplicate all trips for all people. They just need to do near-all trips for, say, 80% of people, to be in the choice set for a revolutionary, world-shattering 30% to 50% of car buyer (recall that it would be a radical growth in EVs to get to 10% to 20% of cars sold. Lots and lots of single-car and two-car households have people who don't like to drive more than 3 hours, ever, and who switch to other modes (air, rail, bus) for longer trips, regardless of the range of their ICE car. They don't *want* to go farther than a 60kWh car can take them.

95% of commuters travel less than 40miles to work. Those that do go that far are probably driving at 75mph+ speeds where drag matters A LOT. Even so, let's say that to the Leaf 40miles of 75mph+ driving burns 80 miles of range. A 60kWh battery should still have the mostly covered. (not that that market it worth chasing in a Leaf: it is either, today, people who don't care (and do it in an F150) or do care (and do it in a Prius). Ergo, 60kWh = far more than an EV will ever need to be a "daily commuting" car for 95% of commuters (e.g. the mass market for EVs)
Commute%20distances.jpg


But wait, single-car households will take "weekend getaway" trips, say 5x a year. These could be key. How far are those trips?
To quote myself, such trips are, almost by definition--trips of roughly 2hours and roughly 125 miles. Any closer than 1 hour, and it wouldn't be a getaway (you'd just have reached the exurbs of your metro area). Any farther than 3 hours and it is no fun to do in a weekend for MOST people who can then consider EVs (and those who "love to drive", yeah, they'll keep considering only ICE/hybrids)

Two hours and 125 miles feels "away" but not "too far"
[*]DC-to-Delaware Shore,
[*]Philly-to-Jersey Shore,
[*]Boston-to-Cape Cod
[*]Boston-to-Ski
[*]NYC-to-Catskills/Berkshires/Poconos,
[*]NYC to The Hamptons or Atlantic City
[*]LA to Palm Springs
[*]Seattle to San Juan Island(s)
[*]Sacramento - Lake Tahoe

You can see this in that people do drive >160miles about 1% of the time or less...aka back and forth 2 weekends a year
Daily%20distance%20car%20distribution.jpg


Some "stretch" distances
[*] Vermont Ski (Boston to Killington = 160 miles)
[*] Hartford CT/ New Haven to Hyannis Cape Cod 160 to 180
[*] Chicago to Wisconsin Dells = 180 miles)
[*] San Francisco to Lake Tahoe = 205 miles
[*] Here's a whole list from LA, mostly in the 50mins to 2hours range

And then all kinds of once-a-year trips that are in the 4hour to 5hour "big vacation trip" range;
[*] St Louis to Ozarks
[*] Atlanta to Hilton Head
[*] NYC to Lake Placid or Vermont
[*] LA to Vegas
For which renting a car or going by bus, train, or plane works quite well...and for which I know plenty of people who own ICE vehicles who nonetheless rent a car (cheap) for this kind of special trip because their usual ICE is either a "workhorse" or older and no fun on long trips.
 
I mostly agree with the previous post, except I don't know anyone who has ever rented a car for a "driving" getaway. 60kwh should have a large portion of urban/suburban America covered.
 
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