Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
evnow said:
rcm4453 said:
Well there are lots of articles on the web that state Nissan wants to go to a more mainstream styling with the Gen 2 LEAF here's one:

In all the market research you see people talk about range and charging issues. Not about appearance.

My guess is a mainstream looking 84 mile Leaf would have sold - may be 10% - more than current leaf. Not a "lot better".


Why the nit picking over "lot better?" My whole point was that mainstream styling would help BEVs sell more, even 10% more is better. You see it in ICEVs as well, the ugly poorly styled cars don't sell as well. Why not make BEVs with mainstream styling is the question? The more pieces of the "total package" a car has the better (good styling, performance, range, reliability & price). I guess I fail to see why so many people argue with me over this when it's pretty much common sense. You don't design an ugly/dorky looking car and expect it to sell well. As I said earlier if there was a ICE version of the LEAF that looked identical I highly doubt it would sell as well as the Altima.
 
same argument happened over the Prius which generated a strong opinion over "lovability" of looks but its performance was the deciding factor and the LEAF is no different. I get compliments on my car a lot and sure part of it is the color but it seems like people who like the color are able to overlook everything else...
 
Volt outsold the LEAF in the U.S. in June, 2,406 vs. 1,063, and the Volt passed 100k U.S. sales, the first PEV to do so. In Norway (via IEVS):
EV Sales Growth Returns To Norway In July, Thanks To PHEVs
http://insideevs.com/ev-sales-growth-returns-to-norway-in-july-thanks-to-phevs/

. . . A total 2,968 new all-electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars were registered during the month, which was a fairly strong 16.9% year-over-year increase – especially because we are talking about an automotive market that EVs hold a near 30% share of.

Most of sales, and all of the growth, is now via plug-in hybrids – 1,865 registrations were logged, which was a 140% gain. As for all-electric vehicles, BEV sales dropped 37.5% to 1,103.

We should note that the above numbers do exclude 342 used imported passenger BEVs, as well as 38 all-electric vans (30 new and 8 used). . . .
 
Germany with the first month of incentives, via IEVS:
Plug-In Car Sales In Germany Decrease Extends To July. What’s Wrong With New Incentives?
http://insideevs.com/plug-in-car-sales-in-germany-decrease-extends-to-july-whats-wrong-with-new-incentives/

. . . The July registration number stands at 1,801, which is 6% less than year ago at 0.65% market share.

All-electric cars are particularly struggling with demand:

BEV – 785 (down 18% year-over-year)
PHEV – 1,016 (up 8% year-over-year) . . . .
 
For August, the U.S. BEV/PHEV sales breakdown was as follows:
Total: 14,882
BEV: 7,822, 52.6%
PHEV: 7,060, 47.4%

As usual, Tesla is carrying BEV sales on its back, an estimated 4,975 of the 7,822, or 63.6%. Among sub-$40k MSRP 'affordable' PEVs, the ratio is very different:

Total: 7,173
PHEV: 4,793, 66.8% (6 models: Volt, Fusion and C-Max Energis, A3 Sportback e-tron, Sonata PHEV, PiP).
BEV: 2,380, 33.2% (8 models: LEAF, e-Golf, 500e, Spark EV, Soul EV, Focus Electric, Smart ED, iMiEV).

Among 'affordable' PEVs, PHEVs continue to sell at about about twice the rate as BEVs, which is unlikely to change until the Bolt arrives.
 
GRA said:
Among 'affordable' PEVs, PHEVs continue to sell at about about twice the rate as BEVs, which is unlikely to change until the Bolt arrives.

Bolt production starts next month, if rumors are true.

Or the arrival of the Leaf2, or the Focus Electric2, or a rather long list of other rumors...

BEVs are suffering from the soon to be released competition problem. The Osborne effect.

Leaf2, is it a 60kWh battery, or just a 40kWh battery?

FFE2, with a 200 mile range (meaning 60kWh battery?) coming when?

VW e-Golf 2? and 3?, 36kWh battery rumored last this year, and 60kWh battery rumored for late 2017.

Tesla Model 3.

And of course, once the new higher capacity battery cars are out, what will the prices of the lower capacity battery cars be?

Market disruption by improvements.
 
WetEV said:
Bolt production starts next month, if rumors are true.

Or the arrival of the Leaf2, or the Focus Electric2, or a rather long list of other rumors...

BEVs are suffering from the soon to be released competition problem. The Osborne effect.

Leaf2, is it a 60kWh battery, or just a 40kWh battery?

FFE2, with a 200 mile range (meaning 60kWh battery?) coming when?

VW e-Golf 2? and 3?, 36kWh battery rumored last this year, and 60kWh battery rumored for late 2017.

Tesla Model 3.

And of course, once the new higher capacity battery cars are out, what will the prices of the lower capacity battery cars be?

Market disruption by improvements.

umm, I was under the impression it would be both. Every thing I have seen concerning LEAF II says multiple pack size options. I "hope" that does not mean 24/30.... or whatever. I am thinking 24/40/60 or something similar
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
WetEV said:
Leaf2, is it a 60kWh battery, or just a 40kWh battery?

And of course, once the new higher capacity battery cars are out, what will the prices of the lower capacity battery cars be?

Market disruption by improvements.

umm, I was under the impression it would be both. Every thing I have seen concerning LEAF II says multiple pack size options. I "hope" that does not mean 24/30.... or whatever. I am thinking 24/40/60 or something similar

I would hope that Leaf2 is something like 24/30/36/40/44/48/60/72... pick several numbers depending on which rumors you believe, and add any I missed. I was focusing on the high end range above, and wondering what the cost curve would look like below.
 
This article, orginally posted by edatoakrun indicates the LEAF currently leads the Volt by about 2:1 in cumulative worldwide sales:
EV Sales said:
Place Model Sales
1 Nissan Leaf 233.507
2 Tesla Model S 132.020
3 Chevrolet Volt 117.394
4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 109.980
5 Toyota Prius Plug-In 76.374
Volt is now third behind two BEVs. This is true even though the Tesla Model S started sales significantly later than the Volt and LEAF. It seems that the desire to have a gasoline engine is more a U.S. thing, perhaps due to low gasoline prices and longer driving distances.

Edit: No, it's not just a U.S. thing, as cumulative PHEV sales have surpassed BEV sales in the UK, as well. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is currently outselling the LEAF there by nearly a 2:1 margin (and growing). But also note that the LEAF is outselling the Ampera (Volt) there by greater than 10:1 margin (and growing).
 
I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

Nissan looks to be getting significantly more revenue from every LEAF S it leases, though I expect those BEVs cost at least $5k less than a Volt to manufacture.

And Nissan's current low LEAF sales sure looks like they are due in part to a planned reduction in inventory, preparatory to the announcement of a significantly improved Gen 2 LEAF, or (far less likely) US sales of Nisssan's BEVx reportedly being introduced in Japan.

...With a vastly superior LEAF set to debut in the not-so-distant future, it appears Nissan is actively managing existing inventory lower in the US.

During August average stocked inventory fell to a 2016 low around ~1,900 units (down about 600 from the month prior)...
http://insideevs.com/august-2016-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/
 
edatoakrun said:
I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

Nissan looks to be getting significantly more revenue from every LEAF S it leases, though I expect those BEVs cost at least $5k less than a Volt to manufacture.

And Nissan's current low LEAF sales sure looks like they are due in part to a planned reduction in inventory, preparatory to the announcement of a significantly improved Gen 2 LEAF, or (far less likely) US sales of Nisssan's BEVx reportedly being introduced in Japan.

...With a vastly superior LEAF set to debut in the not-so-distant future, it appears Nissan is actively managing existing inventory lower in the US.

During August average stocked inventory fell to a 2016 low around ~1,900 units (down about 600 from the month prior)...
http://insideevs.com/august-2016-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/
I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts. The Friday before Labor day there were 20 Volt 1s and 8 Volts 2s among the 124 PEVs I counted in a two hour period. Because that was a three day holiday weekend, I decided to do a 1 hour count this past Friday (which also happened to be California's Admission Day, a state rather than national holiday). Twelve Volts (7 V1s, 5 V2s) led the list of 61 PEVs I saw, with the Model S, LEAF and PiP tied for second with 10 each, then IIRR the Fusion Energi had 5 plus 2 C-Max Energi, and there were 500es, Sparks, e-Golfs, RAV4s, FFEs and i3RExs in ones or twos. The e-Golf was quite a drop-off from the previous count, as there were 7 of them that time, so its sales have really come on.
 
GRA said:
I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts.

Ditto for Los Angeles. I see a lot of Volt 2s running around. I haven't done any formal counting. But it anecdotally seems like 2 out of 3 Volts I've seen on the road in the past month have been Volt 2s. I'm wondering if a lot of the Volt 1 owners have traded theirs in for the Volt 2. This could explain the sudden shift as the older Volts could be getting wholesaled out of the area where lower income buyers might be more interested in them.
 
GRA said:
edatoakrun said:
I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts...
Thank you for your critical observations, but I suggest you look at the actual sales figures, and the actual lease offers, at the links I posted above.

Chevy looks to be leasing Volts for ~ the same cost as it does its ICEV's at ~half the list price, essentially throwing the Volt's ~18.4 kWh battery pack and complex and expensive PHEV drivetrain in-for free.

I'm sure GM could move a lot more than the ~2k Volts a month they are currently leasing/selling each month, if it wanted to lose even more money on the Volt program...
 
GRA said:
The surprising thing to me is that they've been selling as well as they have without benefit of Green HOV stickers. I've seen a small number of 2016s with the stickers, but most seem to be brand new 2017s. That's the most encouraging fact, that people are buying them without getting the huge albeit diminishing benefit (with the stickers expiring on 1/1/2019) in time/money of the stickers. Those stickers have been worth as much or more to the average Volt buyer than the fed. tax credit and state rebate. So, while they likely still need both the subsidies to compete, they apparently no longer need the perk. It's not going to happen, but I'd love to see that removed for BEVs also, once the Bolt arrives.
I missed it, but the very day I made this ^^^ post, the governor signed SB-838, which as well as funding all sorts of AFV programs, reinstated Green HOV stickers and removed any limit on their numbers, i.e. they're now unlimited* in how many can be issued as for the white stickers, but they'll still expire 1/1/2019. I think this is a mistake, as I'm against incentivizing single occupant vehicles to use carpool lanes regardless of their power source, but expect PHEV sales to take off over the next few months, as many of those for whom a BEV just won't work for their commute, and who would have bought a PHEV if the stickers were available, will now do so. I expect a flood of new Volts etc.

* Reading the bill text, it seems they may be limited before 1/1/2019:
However, with respect to vehicles that meet the state’s enhanced advanced technology partial zero-emission vehicle standard or transitional zero-emission vehicle standard, the provisions would be operative only until the earlier of January 1, 2019, the date of the federal authorization, or the receipt date of the notice by the Secretary of State. The bill would require the Department of Transportation to prepare and submit a report to the Legislature by December 1, 2017, on the degradation status of high-occupancy vehicle lanes on the state highway system.
 
September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).
 
GRA said:
September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).

seriously, you exclude tesla?
or even Bolt? :lol: or used Tesla?
 
ydnas7 said:
GRA said:
September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).

seriously, you exclude tesla?
or even Bolt? :lol: or used Tesla?
See "sub-$40k MSRP PEVs". Tesla continues to carry BEVs on its back, but until the Model 3 arrives they won't be 'affordable'.
 
Back
Top