Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

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DaveinOlyWA said:
Valdemar said:
Highly suspicious as this is the price people paid for a 24kWh replacement pack. Considering the 30kWh S model is more expensive than its 24kWh predecessor the cost for a 30kWh pack installed should be in the 7-8k range.

I agree that the dealer is probably wrong AND the "retail value" of the 30 kwh pack is higher but I DOUBT the 30 kwh pack is more expensive for Nissan to build. In fact, pretty sure it is not even close

It has been speculated that Nissan gives out packs with little or no profit margin, but yes I agree that the manufacturing cost differential between 24/30kWh should be minimal.
 
Valdemar said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Valdemar said:
Highly suspicious as this is the price people paid for a 24kWh replacement pack. Considering the 30kWh S model is more expensive than its 24kWh predecessor the cost for a 30kWh pack installed should be in the 7-8k range.

I agree that the dealer is probably wrong AND the "retail value" of the 30 kwh pack is higher but I DOUBT the 30 kwh pack is more expensive for Nissan to build. In fact, pretty sure it is not even close

It has been speculated that Nissan gives out packs with little or no profit margin, but yes I agree that the manufacturing cost differential between 24/30kWh should be minimal.

If we assume $200/kWh (I doubt Nissan have attained that yet), that's a delta of $1,200. Not exactly insignificant.

If I remember right the price of SV/SL's went up a few grand with the intro of the 30 kWh pack.

The OP's estimate of $7-8,000 retail sounds very plausible.
 
JPWhite said:
If we assume $200/kWh (I doubt Nissan have attained that yet), that's a delta of $1,200. Not exactly insignificant.

If I remember right the price of SV/SL's went up a few grand with the intro of the 30 kWh pack.

The OP's estimate of $7-8,000 retail sounds very plausible.

I agree but retail price differential isn't necessarily a good indicator of manufacturing costs. Quite likely Nissan just wanted to charge premium for longer range without much underlying manufacturing cost increase.
 
Valdemar said:
JPWhite said:
If we assume $200/kWh (I doubt Nissan have attained that yet), that's a delta of $1,200. Not exactly insignificant.

If I remember right the price of SV/SL's went up a few grand with the intro of the 30 kWh pack.

The OP's estimate of $7-8,000 retail sounds very plausible.

I agree but retail price differential isn't necessarily a good indicator of manufacturing costs. Quite likely Nissan just wanted to charge premium for longer range without much underlying manufacturing cost increase.

My assumption is that the manufacturing cost delta is at least $1,200.

24kWH battery costs $6,000 fitted.
Add $1200 for manufacturing cost increase.
There's $7,200 right there.
 
On-topic reply below to comment from another thread:

LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=17820&start=520

Stoaty said:
edatoakrun said:
A few more significant quotes from the article I linked yesterday:

And he confirmed that the next Leaf would continue with an air-cooled battery pack, saying changes in cell chemistry had "significantly reduced" concerns over battery durability.

"I am not concerned any more" about the durability of electric-car batteries, he concluded...
Well, those of us who have a capacity loss of 30% in 5.5 years on our Nissan Leaf are concerned. I will wait to see what the battery capacity warranty is on Leaf 2. Any such statement is meaningless without a warranty to back it up.

Lifetime 5.5 m/kWh (Dash) over 57,200 miles / 67 months
Capacity Loss Predicted - 27.4% Actual - 30.1%
Leaf Spy Manual
Battery Aging Model Spreadsheet
I doubt Nissan is very concerned about losing future sale to those few 2011 to (early) 2013 LEAF owners who still confuse inaccurate LBC-indicated battery capacity loss (gid and capacity bar loss) with actual battery capacity loss.

Nissan knows that the change(s) it made in the gid and capacity bar display of new LEAFs in 2013 will mean it will have far fewer complaints of capacity lossfrom the those who rely on gids/bars and never monitor their actual capacity loss, whether actual LEAF battery durability has been improved significantly since 2011, or not.

After I had my 3G TCU upgrade done, I had a long discussion with my local Nissan service adviser RE my own pack, which at almost 50 k miles and nearly 6 years from manufacture now shows LBC calculated capacity loss of ~31%, and is approaching 20% actual capacity loss, as estimated by the charge accepted, as reported by my utility meter.

From his comments, and the reports of others on this forum, it appears Nissan has adopted a policy of providing something like a de-facto prorated pack warranty for some early LEAF owners, which, IMO, while not defective in terms of capacity loss, were probably defective from the standpoint of initial capacity on delivery.

At this point, my advice to all LEAF owners interested in trying to get assistance from Nissan in replacing their packs after warranty expiration, would be to make no efforts to intentionally damage your pack, and maintain a cooperative relationship with your servicing Nissan dealer.

Nissan might well prefer that problem customers who will not do this would buy their future BEVs from their competitors.

If and when I decide to replace my own pack, I will report on how this situation is resolved.
 
JPWhite said:
Valdemar said:
JPWhite said:
If we assume $200/kWh (I doubt Nissan have attained that yet), that's a delta of $1,200. Not exactly insignificant.

If I remember right the price of SV/SL's went up a few grand with the intro of the 30 kWh pack.

The OP's estimate of $7-8,000 retail sounds very plausible.

I agree but retail price differential isn't necessarily a good indicator of manufacturing costs. Quite likely Nissan just wanted to charge premium for longer range without much underlying manufacturing cost increase.

My assumption is that the manufacturing cost delta is at least $1,200.

24kWH battery costs $6,000 fitted.
Add $1200 for manufacturing cost increase.
There's $7,200 right there.

still betting the 30 kwh pack is cheaper than the 24 kwh pack but then again there is only one rule of retail and that is "what is the most people will pay?" :)
 
edatoakrun said:
On-topic reply below to comment from another thread:
Not really, but whatever.
edatoakrun said:
I doubt Nissan is very concerned about losing future sale to those few 2011 to (early) 2013 LEAF owners who still confuse inaccurate LBC-indicated battery capacity loss (gid and capacity bar loss) with actual battery capacity loss.
I don't know why you keep pushing this and disparaging other LEAF owners.

My 4 bar loser after 5.5 years can do 50 miles at 4.5 mi/kWh to VLBW. When new, it did 75.

Charging the car from turtle to 100% uses 17kWh from the wall. When new it took 25kWh.

The numbers match up. Perfectly? Not quite, but then we all know that estimating battery capacity without doing a full discharge/charge is a bit of an art.

While I'm certain that newer LEAFs have more durable batteries, the question is how much better.

I know that with the lack of cooling, there is definitely uneven capacity loss in my pack. Cells 10-38 have noticably lower voltages by the time LBW is close.
 
edatoakrun said:
...my own pack, which at almost 50 k miles and nearly 6 years from manufacture now shows LBC calculated capacity loss of ~31%, and is approaching 20% actual capacity loss, as estimated by the charge accepted, as reported by my utility meter.
Our pack has a bit over 5.5 years and nearly 40,000 miles since manufacture. LeafSpy indicates 25% capacity loss. In the summertime I can often get more than 75% of the original summertime range, but in the wintertime I do not think I can come close to 75% the original wintertime range.

Simply put, the wintertime range was an issue when the car was new, but it is the real issue we face in this climate as it ages. The ridiculous climate controls make matters in wintertime much worse than they need to be.
 
edatoakrun said:
I doubt Nissan is very concerned about losing future sale to those few 2011 to (early) 2013 LEAF owners who still confuse inaccurate LBC-indicated battery capacity loss (gid and capacity bar loss) with actual battery capacity loss.

If your assertion is correct regarding Nissan not being concerned about losing early adopters, then more fool them.

The absolute number of customers, approx 20,000 isn't that significant in as much as losing 20,000 customers is not the end of the world for Nissan. However these 20,000 customers tend to be outspoken about their LEAF's (and other EV's) and maintain blogs and engage in social media. The impact of these owners have a significant impact on the next wave of customers, who will research EV's online and come across blogs and dialog about the LEAF. The potential purchaser will ask for input from anyone they know who has previously owned an EV to get real world experience and advice.

I enjoy the oft acerbic commentary from Jack Rickard. During the early days of the LEAF battery durability concerns Jack simply could not believe Nissan's take it or leave it approach to the issue. The quote that sticks out in my mind is that given that there were so few LEAF owners Nissan should be "tucking them into bed at night" rather than ignoring them. A little TLC back then would have gone a long way to avert brand damage. Rickard referred to Nissan's approach as 'corporate Harikiri'. I couldn't agree with him more.

IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.
 
JPWhite said:
IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.
I cannot imagine anybody disputing this who is thinking of spending their own money. A new technology is likely needed too. And a much more persuasive warranty.

I read this forum by searching for new posts and new threads. The last (and I think only) time I read of an owner with a new car was DaveInOly. All the other LEAF purchase threads have been about used cars. I'm not denigrating used LEAF buyers (after all, I am one of them,) but without people willing to buy new cars this model is dying and no replacement is on the horizon.

Does Nissan care ? By their actions, I think not.
 
SageBrush said:
JPWhite said:
IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.
I cannot imagine anybody disputing this who is thinking of spending their own money. A new technology is likely needed too. And a much more persuasive warranty.

I read this forum by searching for new posts and new threads. The last (and I think only) time I read of an owner with a new car was DaveInOly. All the other LEAF purchase threads have been about used cars. I'm not denigrating used LEAF buyers (after all, I am one of them,) but without people willing to buy new cars this model is dying and no replacement is on the horizon.

Does Nissan care ? By their actions, I think not.

actually I am seeing a ton of new cars but then again, Nissan has a near 50% off sale. they did sell nearly 2,000 last month which is double the monthly average if not counting Nov/Dec
 
JPWhite said:
edatoakrun said:
I doubt Nissan is very concerned about losing future sale to those few 2011 to (early) 2013 LEAF owners who still confuse inaccurate LBC-indicated battery capacity loss (gid and capacity bar loss) with actual battery capacity loss.

If your assertion is correct regarding Nissan not being concerned about losing early adopters, then more fool them.

The absolute number of customers, approx 20,000 isn't that significant in as much as losing 20,000 customers is not the end of the world for Nissan. However these 20,000 customers tend to be outspoken about their LEAF's (and other EV's) and maintain blogs and engage in social media. The impact of these owners have a significant impact on the next wave of customers, who will research EV's online and come across blogs and dialog about the LEAF. The potential purchaser will ask for input from anyone they know who has previously owned an EV to get real world experience and advice.

I enjoy the oft acerbic commentary from Jack Rickard. During the early days of the LEAF battery durability concerns Jack simply could not believe Nissan's take it or leave it approach to the issue. The quote that sticks out in my mind is that given that there were so few LEAF owners Nissan should be "tucking them into bed at night" rather than ignoring them. A little TLC back then would have gone a long way to avert brand damage. Rickard referred to Nissan's approach as 'corporate Harikiri'. I couldn't agree with him more.

IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.

So you hold Nissan in such high disdain that you decided to spend $6K on a new 24kWh battery replacement on 12/3/16? O.K.

Also, this very recent replacement acknowledgment is insightful as to why your highly negative view to the prospect
that Nissan might be doing customer-pay 30kWh replacements at about the same cost of a 24kWh. Did you even ask?
If not, you were obviously aware (hopefully) of the 30kWh battery being used in the existing chassis?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
SageBrush said:
JPWhite said:
IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.
I cannot imagine anybody disputing this who is thinking of spending their own money. A new technology is likely needed too. And a much more persuasive warranty.

I read this forum by searching for new posts and new threads. The last (and I think only) time I read of an owner with a new car was DaveInOly. All the other LEAF purchase threads have been about used cars. I'm not denigrating used LEAF buyers (after all, I am one of them,) but without people willing to buy new cars this model is dying and no replacement is on the horizon.

Does Nissan care ? By their actions, I think not.

actually I am seeing a ton of new cars but then again, Nissan has a near 50% off sale. they did sell nearly 2,000 last month which is double the monthly average if not counting Nov/Dec

That's right, i.e. InsideEvs indicated that 14K Leafs were sold in the U.S. in 2016. Although that number is significantly
off from previous years.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
SageBrush said:
JPWhite said:
IMHO The LEAF brand is tarnished in the US and Nissan should launch their next EV with a new name.
I cannot imagine anybody disputing this who is thinking of spending their own money. A new technology is likely needed too. And a much more persuasive warranty.

I read this forum by searching for new posts and new threads. The last (and I think only) time I read of an owner with a new car was DaveInOly. All the other LEAF purchase threads have been about used cars. I'm not denigrating used LEAF buyers (after all, I am one of them,) but without people willing to buy new cars this model is dying and no replacement is on the horizon.

Does Nissan care ? By their actions, I think not.

actually I am seeing a ton of new cars but then again, Nissan has a near 50% off sale. they did sell nearly 2,000 last month which is double the monthly average if not counting Nov/Dec
Yep.

From my POV, the LEAF has degraded into a compliance car for NIssan through corporate neglect.
 
lorenfb said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
SageBrush said:
I cannot imagine anybody disputing this who is thinking of spending their own money. A new technology is likely needed too. And a much more persuasive warranty.

I read this forum by searching for new posts and new threads. The last (and I think only) time I read of an owner with a new car was DaveInOly. All the other LEAF purchase threads have been about used cars. I'm not denigrating used LEAF buyers (after all, I am one of them,) but without people willing to buy new cars this model is dying and no replacement is on the horizon.

Does Nissan care ? By their actions, I think not.

actually I am seeing a ton of new cars but then again, Nissan has a near 50% off sale. they did sell nearly 2,000 last month which is double the monthly average if not counting Nov/Dec

That's right, i.e. InsideEvs indicated that 14K Leafs were sold in the U.S. in 2016. Although that number is significantly
off from previous years.

but over 3500 in the last 2 months.
 
SageBrush said:
Yep.

From my POV, the LEAF has degraded into a compliance car for NIssan through corporate neglect.

Do I interpret that correctly, i.e. you bought a POV Leaf but have a negative view of Nissan? If that's correct,
tell us someone "forced you" to buy one.
 
lorenfb said:
SageBrush said:
Yep.

From my POV, the LEAF has degraded into a compliance car for NIssan through corporate neglect.

Do I interpret that correctly, i.e. you bought a POV Leaf but have a negative view of Nissan? If that's correct,
tell us someone "forced you" to buy one.
What is a POV LEAF ?

To answer your presumed question while ignoring the baiting, I bought my used LEAF based on a calculation of value, meaning expected utility for price paid. If that is not explicit enough, try this: the car was so cheap I accept the risks inherent in dealing with a company that is going to offer the least legally mandated customer support it can get away with, for a car that has suspect battery technology. I mitigate my gamble by 1. buying a car that has excellent LEAFSpy results; 2. placing it into a service that is not demanding and tolerant of degradation; and 3. willingness to learn enough about the car to pamper and maintain it for a hopefully long life. I expect the car to work great for my uses and to enjoy ownership, warts and all.

Technology quality is a shade of grey and being a fanboy of a corporation is not a required initiation rite for purchase. I also represent the flip side of this, by the way: I AM a strong advocate of all things Tesla and Elon Musk but I have never given serious consideration to buying a Model S or Model X and time will tell if I exercise my Model 3 reservation.

Sorry to confuse you -- enthusiasts tend to have a myopic view. Your angst reminds me of football fans with their irrational tribal loves, hatreds, and biases.
 
SageBrush said:
lorenfb said:
SageBrush said:
Yep.

From my POV, the LEAF has degraded into a compliance car for NIssan through corporate neglect.

Do I interpret that correctly, i.e. you bought a POV Leaf but have a negative view of Nissan? If that's correct,
tell us someone "forced you" to buy one.
What is a POV LEAF ?

To answer your presumed question while ignoring the baiting, I bought my used LEAF based on a calculation of value, meaning expected utility for price paid. If that is not explicit enough, try this: the car was so cheap I accept the risks inherent in dealing with a company that is going to offer the least legally mandated customer support it can get away with, for a car that has suspect battery technology. I mitigate my gamble by 1. buying a car that has excellent LEAFSpy results; 2. placing it into a service that is not demanding and tolerant of degradation; and 3. willingness to learn enough about the car to pamper and maintain it for a hopefully long life. I expect the car to work great for my uses and to enjoy ownership, warts and all.

Technology quality is a shade of grey and being a fanboy of a corporation is not a required initiation rite for purchase. I also represent the flip side of this, by the way: I AM a strong advocate of all things Tesla and Elon Musk but I have never given serious consideration to buying a Model S or Model X and time will tell if I exercise my Model 3 reservation.

Sorry to confuse you -- enthusiasts tend to have a myopic view. Your angst reminds me of football fans with their irrational tribal loves, hatreds, and biases.

The term used in finance is Net Present Value (NPV), i.e. cost of an asset over time, assuming a zero salvage
value in this case, at an assumed cost of capital interest rate. Your basis for your NPV (POV) is not quantifiable.
Since your #2 & #3 are highly subjective, they hardly mitigate one's view of the potential negative aspects
of a purchase. How about using the term, YGV (your guesstimate of value). Most rational buyers when
they have a negative view of the company, don't buy its products.

So you have concluded based on POV (your term) that the Leaf is just a compliance car for Nissan, right?
And what would you call the 20+ EVs on the InsideEVs 2016 sales list with less sales volumes than the Leaf?
Your conclusion is a non sequitar. Anything of significance to contribute to this thread?
 
lorenfb said:
Most rational buyers when
they have a negative view of the company, don't buy its products.
You miss the point. Many early adopters are able to make rational decisions based on all available data. I agree with Sagebrush's assessment that a used LEAF has excellent value if one realizes it's shortcomings. The value is good enough that one can consider a used LEAF despite Nissan's attitude towards early adopters and a flagship vehicle.
lorenfb said:
So you have concluded based on POV (your term) that the Leaf is just a compliance car for Nissan, right?
And what would you call the 20+ EVs on the InsideEVs 2016 sales list with less sales volumes than the Leaf?
All compliance cars.
 
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