LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

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Good article here

https://transportevolved.com/2017/01/09/no-nissan-has-not-unveiled-a-new-nissan-leaf-but-heres-what-we-know-about-it-so-far/
 
evnow said:
The problem with lower range EVs is that you can't drive it worry free because of aging/capacity loss and cold weather range.

Till now Nissan is paying for most of the capacity loss by offering cheap leases. That won't happen indefinitely. I think the range will stabilize around 300 miles minimum once the batteries are easily below $50/kWh with only econoboxes offering lower range.

LOL!!!

notta gonna happen!!!

too many people just fine with the LEAF as is. What we hear is a relatively small portion of the LEAF community with either above average need, unwillingness to compromise, or simply too paranoid for their own good (helped by Nissan instrumentation I might add) and we take that to be the norm.

well it is not. I talk with people nearly every day who are just fine with the range the LEAF provides and that number is growing by huge leaps and bounds right now and the reason?

not hard to understand. its lightly used LEAFs for $8,000 or new ones for $20,000.

FYI; I mentioned I was offered a super cheap buyout of my 2013 S and the response was 100% the same.

"I don't like the range of my LEAF either but for THAT price, I will make it work!"

so your ideology that 300 miles is the minimum? yeah that will only work if the car is offered at the same price as any other econobox gasser
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
evnow said:
The problem with lower range EVs is that you can't drive it worry free because of aging/capacity loss and cold weather range.

Till now Nissan is paying for most of the capacity loss by offering cheap leases. That won't happen indefinitely. I think the range will stabilize around 300 miles minimum once the batteries are easily below $50/kWh with only econoboxes offering lower range.

LOL!!!

notta gonna happen!!!

too many people just fine with the LEAF as is. What we hear is a relatively small portion of the LEAF community with either above average need, unwillingness to compromise, or simply too paranoid for their own good (helped by Nissan instrumentation I might add) and we take that to be the norm.

well it is not. I talk with people nearly every day who are just fine with the range the LEAF provides and that number is growing by huge leaps and bounds right now and the reason?

not hard to understand. its lightly used LEAFs for $8,000 or new ones for $20,000.

FYI; I mentioned I was offered a super cheap buyout of my 2013 S and the response was 100% the same.

"I don't like the range of my LEAF either but for THAT price, I will make it work!"

so your ideology that 300 miles is the minimum? yeah that will only work if the car is offered at the same price as any other econobox gasser
Yep, I just bought one 3 weeks ago. It is a 2013 S with 25k miles, 12 bars, and Quick Charge. Price? $7600. For that price, and as it is a second car to our Tesla S, we can live with the range.
 
I'm not talking about when EVs are 1% < of the market - but when it is 10%+. Low range EVs are selling (in small numbers) basically because of super cheap leases. That won't continue- at some point OEMs need to be profitable.

I still think 100 miles range is good- but need large buffers to account for winter, battery degradation, range anxiety at low charge%. I think that means about 200 EPA range. May be that is where econoboxes end up (like Bolt). Future corollas and Camrys will have 300 mile range.

One think that can disrupt this is autonomous driving where people stop owning cars.
 
Foschas said:
Good article here

https://transportevolved.com/2017/01/09/no-nissan-has-not-unveiled-a-new-nissan-leaf-but-heres-what-we-know-about-it-so-far/
Well written and concise summary. I'll speculate that Leaf2 will be released as a 2018 model in October with the same 6.6KW L2, but a 60 KWh battery and 150 KW Chademo (high end model). As much as I would like to see a 10 KW charger, I doubt they'll change and will say that the 6.6 can still fill the battery overnight. Also, it's likely that they will offer a smaller battery option, maybe 40KWh. As for pricing, if it's not less than $35k (high end models) then they're in trouble. I'm hoping for $20-$30K. At best, I don't expect the to release any additional information until August, well after production begins.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I'd expect the 30kwh pack to stay, for the S, and maybe even for the Base SV.
Yes that's good plan too. If they dropped the price to say $20,000 then they might have a chance competing with used Leafs. More than that, and I'll just get a 2015 or 2016 in a couple years
 
Reddy said:
Well written and concise summary. I'll speculate that Leaf2 will be released as a 2018 model in October with the same 6.6KW L2, but a 60 KWh battery and 150 KW Chademo (high end model).
I doubt the 200 mile model is coming this year.

First, it's likely an LG battery that would require a lot of design, engineering etc.

Second, if they had that in the plan - esp a higher priced one, the good time to announce it is now - so that people don't jump ship and buy a Bolt.

Anyone buying a Leaf now don't care about 200 mile $37k car - so the announcement won't eat into MY17 sales, anyway.
 
NavyCuda said:
Sounds more like it will be a Nissan battery and not LG.

They said air cooled so that means it won't be a LG in all likelihood.
 
reeler said:
NavyCuda said:
Sounds more like it will be a Nissan battery and not LG.

They said air cooled so that means it won't be a LG in all likelihood.
LG batteries are in BEVs today without liquid or refrigerant cooling of the packs, so I wouldn't agree with that conclusion.

AFAIK, Nissan has not said where GEN 2 LEAF batteries would be sourced, other than in general statements that as batteries moved to commodity status, it would no longer need to manufacture them itself.

Gen 1 LEAF packs more accurately would be described as conductively cooled, as no significant airflow is used to cool them.

But air-cooled seems to now have become the popular term for any pack that does not require a coolant or refrigerant loop:

edatoakrun said:
...
A few more significant quotes from the article I linked yesterday:

A few further snippets on the next Leaf came from a question-and answer session earlier in the day with Takao Asami, a Nissan senior vice president of research and advanced engineering....

Asami noted that the company was preparing for DC fast-charging at rates up to 150 kilowatts, though he questioned the practicality of higher rates for mass-market electric cars.

And he confirmed that the next Leaf would continue with an air-cooled battery pack, saying changes in cell chemistry had "significantly reduced" concerns over battery durability.

"I am not concerned any more" about the durability of electric-car batteries, he concluded...
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108175_next-nissan-leaf-propilot-self-driving-included-200-mile-range-or-more-confirmed/page-2

I agree with both of of those statements.

An ~150 kW charge rate is probably all that will be required in the immediate future by mass-market BEVs with total battery capacities from about 30 to 60 kWh, though trucks buses, and luxury BEVs with larger packs could benefit from higher charge rates (likely also with significantly higher costs per kWh) if and when such high-kW DC stations are ever deployed on a large scale.

And Nissan had it right a decade ago when it realized their was no future in developing BEV battery designs that required intensive active cooling, as the reduced cost and higher efficiency of ~passively cooled packs would inevitably lead to obsolescence of liquid or refrigerant based active cooling designs, as battery prices declined.
It's very cheap both in manufacture and operation to provide airflow to a battery pack and call it air-cooled.

Benefits in terms of pack life are not likely to be very significant, since air, an excellent insulator, is a lousy conductor of heat with very low thermal capacity.

But we may (IMO) see air cooling added to the LEAF GEN 2 pack, which might well be more valuable as a promotional slogan, than a cost-effective method of actually extending battery life.
 
As a mechanical engineer and the former owner of an air-cooled 1987 Porsche, I do know that air as a heat transfer fluid works. It all depends on the design of the battery pack heat transfer mechanisms and materials. I don't think we are talking about a lot of heat here - certainly nothing like an ice.

On the hottest days here in GA, my battery temps only get up to around 110 degrees F - and that is while level 3 charging in a parking lot in full sun. They could also use conditioned air for the cooling with that system only kicking in under certain circumstances (i.e. sitting in a parking lot level 3 charging with no natural air flow). This shouldn't be difficult to model.

I think this whole battery degradation thing is somewhat overblown as all batteries will degrade with time and use. Anyone who has ever owned a laptop computer knows that. It can be disguised with extra capacity or mitigated with heating/cooling (cost), but it is still going to happen. I think Nissan should have done a better job of testing their product in all climates and setting expectations. One hopes that they have learned their lesson and that the next iteration will yield a better result.
 
evnow said:
Reddy said:
Well written and concise summary. I'll speculate that Leaf2 will be released as a 2018 model in October with the same 6.6KW L2, but a 60 KWh battery and 150 KW Chademo (high end model).
I doubt the 200 mile model is coming this year.

First, it's likely an LG battery that would require a lot of design, engineering etc.

Second, if they had that in the plan - esp a higher priced one, the good time to announce it is now - so that people don't jump ship and buy a Bolt.

Anyone buying a Leaf now don't care about 200 mile $37k car - so the announcement won't eat into MY17 sales, anyway.

surprised you think that Nissan "recently" started over at square one.

as far as announcing a product early? pretty much the dumbest idea EVER...

It should be obvious Nissan is trying to clear out inventory with the unreal pricing programs they have going right now. Sorry but you don't have a fire sale unless you plan to have a fire
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
It should be obvious Nissan is trying to clear out inventory with the unreal pricing programs they have going right now. Sorry but you don't have a fire sale unless you plan to have a fire

They have had crazy pricing for a couple years mainly driven by the fact that there were better EV options at the price they were asking, e.g., e500, Soul, Golf. I think pricing will remain low to move a dated model with sub-par Nav. With a new model competitive with the Bolt and Model 3, we will see similar pricing for Nissan.
 
reeler said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
It should be obvious Nissan is trying to clear out inventory with the unreal pricing programs they have going right now. Sorry but you don't have a fire sale unless you plan to have a fire

They have had crazy pricing for a couple years mainly driven by the fact that there were better EV options at the price they were asking, e.g., e500, Soul, Golf. I think pricing will remain low to move a dated model with sub-par Nav. With a new model competitive with the Bolt and Model 3, we will see similar pricing for Nissan.

I am more than willing to dispute your claim... care to post any examples from any period of 2015 or the first half of 2016?

or should I say simply "well is MUCH crazier now!"

The sales have more than doubled the last 2 months of 2016 and I suspect Jan (a traditionally slow month) will be even better...
 
I bought my 2016 SV about a year ago for $7600 off MSRP plus a free charger. With the $7500 Federal and $6000 state incentives, a pretty cheap car for sure.
 
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