Official Tesla Model S thread

arnis said:

lorenfb - I'm tired to give evidence on everything I say. That evidence is mostly not respected. And as I don't earn money for that I
will do it only if I'm interested and willing.

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=22752&start=30
I gave evidence and what? Didn't prove anything.

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I agree with your comments on the Leaf 12V battery and your basis for those comments.

But, with regard to long term Li ion battery degradation, i.e. Tesla vehicles, the data at this point in time
are lacking to extrapolate its longevity. We do have much more data for the Leaf batteries given LeafSpy/LeafDD,
this forum, and the age of the Leaf. And as such, battery degradation is better understood and somewhat
more predictable, which at this point in time is not the case for the Tesla battery. Hopefully, Jim (LeafSpy)
and his diagnostic tool for the Tesla will provide good data for battery analysis. It's questionable, though,
given the assumed difference in inquisitiveness between Leaf owners and Tesla owners, how much Tesla
data will be available over time. Furthermore, implicit over time in the Tesla resale values will be an indication
of Tesla's battery degradation as has been the case for the Leaf.

Do we agree, that if we keep everything constant and not even cycle the battery
(keep it at constant temperature, constant voltage, pressure, no vibration etc etc)
degradation does not accelerate? So either it stays almost constant or slows down.
It does happen sometimes but that is due to catastrophic failure of some kind like thermal runaway
or short circuit (external or internal).

I've not seen/heard of evidence that tells the opposite. We DO know that if capacity goes down
doing the same trip means DoD will be deeper and therefore cycle degradation speeds up.

arnis said:

Do we agree, that if we keep everything constant and not even cycle the battery
(keep it at constant temperature, constant voltage, pressure, no vibration etc etc)
degradation does not accelerate? So either it stays almost constant or slows down.

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Those conditions replicate a laboratory environment with strictly controlled variables, which is not
the case for a Tesla battery.

In any case, how about if we attempt to gather data over the next few years and evaluate how well your
hypothesis holds up.

Exactly. And real world climate is worse. But like global warming it doesn't change drastically on daily basis.
Real world is different and we can see that if we compare lab data and whatever we get from users.
But supposing degradation will be worse for no reason is not scientifically reasonable.
Either you go with the science, pass or go against it.

We know how Tesla treats it's battery. It doesn't change the treatment over time (except firmware updates).

So I would like to hear for variables that should speed up degradation with years.
Not only Tesla. Any Li-ion battery. If nothing applies to Tesla we should suppose degradation will not speed up.

arnis said:

Do we agree, that if we keep everything constant and not even cycle the battery
(keep it at constant temperature, constant voltage, pressure, no vibration etc etc)
degradation does not accelerate? So either it stays almost constant or slows down.
It does happen sometimes but that is due to catastrophic failure of some kind like thermal runaway
or short circuit (external or internal).

I've not seen/heard of evidence that tells the opposite. We DO know that if capacity goes down
doing the same trip means DoD will be deeper and therefore cycle degradation speeds up.

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no, not really. Why did Musk build a super factory? Why didn't he just start stockpiling battery packs from day one? Again, we have to realize the rules are in constant flux. What was true this morning may not be true this afternoon.

What was true and still likely is to some degree is that Li packs have a shelf life. IOW; they will die on the shelf without being used at all. rotten fruit. Frozen food. there are a lot of ways to increase shelf life but no real way to prevent death.

with the current level of investment in battery tech, it would not surprise me to see packs with 20 year lifespans. Now this is 20 years based on time degradation only. We already figured out how to beat cycle degradation. we simply made the laps bigger. piece of cake. problem solved, move on.

Too hot? Install AC. problem solved, move on. Its amazing to me that I mention time degradation and 80% of the conversation talks about anything but.

I have a laptop with original battery. Made in 1997. Actually two identical laptops.
Batteries still work for half an hour.

What means "dead battery" for you? Is dead range based or voltage based?
For me, Leaf with 30 mile range is degraded Leaf, not dead.
Tesla with 100 mile range is degraded Tesla, not dead.

Why do you assume new batteries will have accelerated time degradation?

arnis said:

I have a laptop with original battery. Made in 1997. Actually two identical laptops.
Batteries still work for half an hour.

What means "dead battery" for you? Is dead range based or voltage based?
For me, Leaf with 30 mile range is degraded Leaf, not dead.
Tesla with 100 mile range is degraded Tesla, not dead.

Why do you assume new batteries will have accelerated time degradation?

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why does every conversation with you have to start back at square one? if want my definition of shelf life, scroll up!

"you" might consider a laptop that must be tethered to power all the time to be useful just as you might consider a LEAF with 30 miles of range useful...

Ok, you say 70%?
How about degrading 30kWh Leaf down to 70%.
If it is dead for you, then we can't continue discussion from there on.
I wouldn't recommend "you" as a vehicle valuation consultant :lol:

30 x 0,7 = 21

A 30kW LEAF at 70% has more range than a 6 month old 2011-12.

arnis said:

Ok, you say 70%?
How about degrading 30kWh Leaf down to 70%.
If it is dead for you, then we can't continue discussion from there on.
I wouldn't recommend "you" as a vehicle valuation consultant :lol:

30 x 0,7 = 21

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ummm who you talking to? me? cause that would be a waste of time. I am not the one who came up with this 70% number... I know a few people driving LEAFs on a daily basis who have less than 50% of their original capacity...

Don't leave your Model S fob at home if you will be driving out of cellular range: Tesla driver stranded in the desert after smartphone app failure:

Telegraph said:

"Six miles down the road we decided to turn back, but before that, had to adjust Mozy & Millie's car bed, so I exited the vehicle...bad idea," Negri said on Instagram. "Need to restart the car now, but, with no cell service, my phone can't connect to the car to unlock it."

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It sounds like a very good idea as a backup, but a terrible idea as the primary control for the car.

Electric4Me said:

I've followed Tesla since its inception and fully intended to buy a Model S... But the Leaf has stolen my heart, at least for now! That and the S is too big to fit into my garage well. I'm just not crazy about big cars. The Leaf price sure helps a lot too!

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With the lower price on the 60KWH S I could afford one but it is just too big for me. My compact eGolf fills my needs. I have a reservation on a Tesla 3. It may turn out to be the right size for me. I really hope Tesla does not go broke and it is produced. I measured my garage and the S would fit and I realize it has to be large to fit the batteries but it is not for me.

Now that unlimited free Supercharging has ended for new car orders, Tesla has just begun to offer the much-expected 100D model, with a 335 mile EPA range, for $3000 more than the 90D (EPA range 294 miles). I would expect the 90D model to be phased out once the battery packs are used up.

GlennD said:

With the lower price on the 60KWH S I could afford one but it is just too big for me. My compact eGolf fills my needs. I have a reservation on a Tesla 3. It may turn out to be the right size for me. I really hope Tesla does not go broke and it is produced. I measured my garage and the S would fit and I realize it has to be large to fit the batteries but it is not for me.

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I was concerned about the size of the Model S but once I got one I found that I enjoyed the storage space and greatly preferred it to the Model 3, based on what we know about the 3. However, I went from two cars crammed in a two car garage to just one car, and it is wonderful having all that extra space in my garage for the first time. I also live in an area where parking tends not to be crowded and finding parking space for the large S is quite easy, so no need to worry about cramming a large car into cramped parking spaces (and there are hordes of gigantic trucks and SUVs here anyway). So, kind of a special case compared to the situation of others.

dgpcolorado said:

Now that unlimited free Supercharging has ended for new car orders, Tesla has just begun to offer the much-expected 100D model, with a 335 mile EPA range, for $3000 more than the 90D. I would expect the 90D model to be phased out once the battery packs are used up.

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Now that we've got the actual number, let's see how Tony's and my range predictions from last August measured up:

TonyWilliams said:

GRA said:

TonyWilliams said:

The EPA miles of the closest comparison cars are:

270 miles - P90D

294 miles - 90D

Using the ratio of 294 / 270 = 1.0888, therefore I expect the Tesla Model S-100D to get:

1.0888 * 315 = 343 miles EPA

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I'm assuming a bit less owing to the higher weight.

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It weighs 4% more for 11% plus in stored energy. That's about 50 pounds, nearly insignificant for highway range. The battery has gotten 17% bigger with the 18650 cells. I expect another 5 -10% improvement just by switching to the 2170 cells.

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GRA said:

...Now that we've got the actual number, let's see how Tony's and my range predictions from last August measured up...

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Did anyone predict the base price...?

...Tesla has just launched the 335-mile Model S 100D at a starting price of $95,800 (plus destination) or $92,500 (plus destination) if you remove the pre-selected, upgraded interior...

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http://insideevs.com/tesla-launches-model-s-100d-range-of-335-miles-starts-at-95800/

edatoakrun said:

GRA said:

...Now that we've got the actual number, let's see how Tony's and my range predictions from last August measured up...

Click to expand...

Did anyone predict the base price...?

...Tesla has just launched the 335-mile Model S 100D at a starting price of $95,800 (plus destination) or $92,500 (plus destination) if you remove the pre-selected, upgraded interior...

Click to expand...

http://insideevs.com/tesla-launches-model-s-100d-range-of-335-miles-starts-at-95800/

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Other than it being higher than the S90D, I don't remember if anyone made a specific prediction.

I expect another 5 -10% improvement just by switching to the 2170 cells.

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Bad assumption.... they are still using 18650s.

102.5kWh = 8256 cells * (3400mah * 3.65v nominal)

96 in series - 86 in parallel

TonyWilliams said:

I expect another 5 -10% improvement just by switching to the 2170 cells.

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Bad assumption.... they are still using 18650s.<snip>

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It seems they're holding the 2170s for the Model 3, at least for now. I'd think it would take a very thorough redesign of the Model S/X pack to go to the bigger cells. Maybe it will happen after they get the Model 3/Y in production. I think Musk's recent statement that they're going to stop at 100kWh isn't a very good idea, as even the S100D is just barely capable of meeting a 4 hours plus 30 mile reserve range, @ 70 mph with no HVAC use with a brand new battery, and falls short at higher speeds, different temps with HVAC, less than 100% charge, etc. I expect other companies will introduce bigger packs as soon as they're available. At some point in the next couple of years Tesla will have to start competing with others, instead of having the field to themselves as has been the case thus far (Bolt aside). Of course, that assumes they'll still be around as an (independent) company, which I imagine depends on getting the Model 3 out on time (or at least a lot closer than they've managed in the past).

S200D is just barely capable of meeting a 8 hours plus 60 mile reserve range, @ 70 mph with no HVAC use with a brand new battery, and falls short at higher speeds, different temps with HVAC, less than 100% charge, etc.