Western USA drought worst in modern era

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A bit of rain yesterday, last night and this morning will not likely be enough to be of much help. the West side of the Cascades generally gets double the volume of the East side and we did not get much. Hoping the Northern end of the front was much wetter than what passed thru Oly
 
RegGuheert said:
Nubo said:
Will the smoke particles provide more condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, leading to a wetter winter?
I doubt it. I believe you need BOTH higher humidity AND condensation nuclei to get more rain and/or snow. If the air is very dry, then there will not be more rain.

I doubt it for a different reason. Smoke particles have a limited lifetime in the atmosphere. By winter, the fires should be out, and the atmosphere should mostly be clear of smoke particles.
 
WetEV said:
RegGuheert said:
Nubo said:
Will the smoke particles provide more condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, leading to a wetter winter?
I doubt it. I believe you need BOTH higher humidity AND condensation nuclei to get more rain and/or snow. If the air is very dry, then there will not be more rain.

I doubt it for a different reason. Smoke particles have a limited lifetime in the atmosphere. By winter, the fires should be out, and the atmosphere should mostly be clear of smoke particles.
I guess what I am saying is that without the jetstream moving back to where it used to be, there will not be a significant amount of rainfall in your part of the world.
 
Entering the fifth year, a mixed message in this Winter's latest drought forecast from NOAA.

Best summary and graphics, IMO, at the site below.

A strong El Niño is predicted to help ease drought conditions in some, but not all of California.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 15, by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a strong El Niño improving drought conditions across central and southern California by the end of January...

"For the Southwest, El Niño associated climate anomalies favor an enhancement of the early wet season," the CPC says. "Therefore, drought improvement is favored across central and southern California."

But the drought is forecast to persist or intensify across northern California, northern Nevada and all of Oregon and Washington...

Despite the outlook for improvement, the drought in California isn't going away. Halpert says "a wetter-than-average winter is unlikely to erase four years of drought."..

The next seasonal outlook will be issued November 19.
http://www.capradio.org/articles/2015/10/15/forecast-strong-el-nino-will-improve-california-drought/
 
http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/A-hair-raising-flight-over-California-s-dying-9127084.php#photo-10711388

Lots of dead trees. Sad to see.
 
palmermd said:
http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/A-hair-raising-flight-over-California-s-dying-9127084.php#photo-10711388

Lots of dead trees. Sad to see.
Driving back from Yosemite this past January, it was really shocking to see the massive amount of dead pines every direction I looked, as far as the eye could see. I'd estimate that there were at least 20% dead no matter which direction I was looking, and some stands appeared to be up to 80% dead.

Early last month, when I went up to my old Scout camp at 5,500 ft. on the Stanislaus river for a visit, I was amazed at the number of dead and down trees that turned what were formerly easy off-trail walks into slow obstacle courses. Beetle tracks were very noticeable where trunks were missing their bark. It will take at least a few decades for natural decay to open things up again, always assuming a fire doesn't clear things out, destroying what's left in the process. Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.
 
GRA said:
Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.

The average is changing. What will the forests look like with the new average? And the average after that?
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Last winter was fairly average for snow, but we need a few more like it before the forests will be healthy again.
The average is changing. What will the forests look like with the new average? And the average after that?
A lot less tree cover in the lower montane forest belt, that's for sure, and probably we'll see the foothill woodlands/chaparral move well upwards as snowfall decreases.
 
I've been up in the lower Sierras the last 3 years and the number of dead trees up there the last two is shocking. Entire mountains are being wiped out.
 
RegGuheert said:
I guess what I am saying is that without the jetstream moving back to where it used to be, there will not be a significant amount of rainfall in your part of the world.
Well, the jetstream DID move back to where it normally was in the past:

theblob-comparison.png


The result is the wettest water year on record in CA to date.

Snow water is at nearly twice the normal amount:
California Data Exchange Center said:
STATEWIDE SUMMARY
Data For: 23-Jan-2017
Number of Stations Reporting 74
Average snow water equivalent 30.7"
Percent of April 1 Average 104%
Percent of normal for this date 193%
Last weekend, reservoirs were at 111% of normal. No doubt they will be even higher this weekend.

Satellite photos show that CA has greened significantly versus three years ago:

MODIS-NCal-drought-ends-550x309.jpg


So, no, the belief that snowfall is decreasing is just that: a belief with no facts to support it:
GRA said:
A lot less tree cover in the lower montane forest belt, that's for sure, and probably we'll see the foothill woodlands/chaparral move well upwards as snowfall decreases.
Here is what wintertime precipitation looks like in CA BEFORE this winter happened:

CAWintertime_Precipitation_Trend.png


Unfortunately, this means that many are currently suffering greatly due to the massive rains.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
A lot less tree cover in the lower montane forest belt, that's for sure, and probably we'll see the foothill woodlands/chaparral move well upwards as snowfall decreases.
Here is what wintertime precipitation looks like in CA BEFORE this winter happened: <snip>

Unfortunately, this means that many are currently suffering greatly due to the massive rains.
Yes, this January (Dec. had very little snow) has resembled Jan '97, aka the 'Great Yosemite Flood' year, with wave after wave of storms coming in, although the one then right around New Year's was very warm (the second or third storm in the string that hit us this time melted a lot of the snow that had just fallen, and caused the first round of flooding). We're now at about the sixth or maybe seventh storm this month, and high winds combined with lots of dead trees from drought are bringing them down all over the place. The fact that so much of the state burned during the drought probably also increases the amount of runoff, and certainly boosts the amount of sediment. While it's bad for the people who are getting flooded, we really need the water, especially to refill the aquifers. See http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/01/12/509179190/as-rains-soak-california-farmers-test-how-to-store-water-underground

BTW, the link to the satellite photos doesn't work for me.
 
Well CA has been asking for water for years and now they have it. hope they have contingency plans to not waste any during heavy water years. seems like there should be plenty of emergency storage areas for this situation. Watering everything that is brown now only means massive fire season in a few months.
 
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