LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

But what do we REALLY know? The only thing we really know is that they had a test vehicle driving around Michigan in the snow. That vehicle seemed to have some different front and rear design, similar to the IDS concept. Carlos Goshen said Janurary 5 that the next Leaf would come "in the near future". Beyond that, there are no real facts, and a few hints, which may or may not be correct.

OTOH, we also have a lot of very smart people using analysis of market forces, design and functional continuity, and common sense to extrapolate what Nissan should be doing, or may be actually doing in the product development process. Or maybe the Leaf 2 is vaporware. I certainly hope not. I want a vibrant EV market.

The problem is that all of the 64 pages of speculation and assumption is not real information that I can use to make real life decisions at the current time when decisions are needed. Nissan has let me down.

eastocean said:

But what do we REALLY know? Beyond that, there are no real facts, and a few hints, which may or may not be correct

The problem is that all of the 64 pages of speculation and assumption is not real information that I can use to make real life decisions at the current time when decisions and are needed.

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No different than every Tesla model iii thread

rmay635703 said:

eastocean said:

But what do we REALLY know? Beyond that, there are no real facts, and a few hints, which may or may not be correct

The problem is that all of the 64 pages of speculation and assumption is not real information that I can use to make real life decisions at the current time when decisions and are needed.

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No different than every Tesla model iii thread

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We know a lot more about Model 3 than about Leaf 2.

Rebel44 said:

rmay635703 said:

eastocean said:

But what do we REALLY know? Beyond that, there are no real facts, and a few hints, which may or may not be correct

The problem is that all of the 64 pages of speculation and assumption is not real information that I can use to make real life decisions at the current time when decisions and are needed.

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No different than every Tesla model iii thread

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We know a lot more about Model 3 than about Leaf 2.

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Yes, since last March when the Model 3 was revealed, we learned enough for me to reserve 2 Model 3's, one for wife, one for son and pretty much all my extended family and a good dozen friends to reserve as well.

Rebel44 said:

rmay635703 said:

eastocean said:

But what do we REALLY know? Beyond that, there are no real facts, and a few hints, which may or may not be correct

The problem is that all of the 64 pages of speculation and assumption is not real information that I can use to make real life decisions at the current time when decisions and are needed.

Click to expand...

No different than every Tesla model iii thread

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We know a lot more about Model 3 than about Leaf 2.

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Not really, you have been told by the horses mouth but it's no different since what you actually think your getting and what may be for sale may not fully match one or all of your expectations.

The way Nissan is handling things at least creates fewer misconceptions about the real product if and when it becomes available.

Also what do you suppose happens to your donation if Tesla goes under between now and 2019?

rmay635703 said:

Rebel44 said:

rmay635703 said:

No different than every Tesla model iii thread

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We know a lot more about Model 3 than about Leaf 2.

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Not really, you have been told by the horses mouth but it's no different since what you actually think your getting and what may be for sale may not fully match one or all of your expectations.

The way Nissan is handling things at least creates fewer misconceptions about the real product if and when it becomes available.

Also what do you suppose happens to your donation if Tesla goes under between now and 2019?

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Actually, what we will get is very likely quite a bit more than what was shown at the reveal in March 2016. I suspect the Model 3 will go beyond most people's expectations.

2019? Huh? Not for those 400,000 people wise enough to have made reservations last March. Tesla has officially stated that those will be filled by end of 2018. As far as fear of losing my $1,000? My much greater fear would be to have not made a reservation and wish I had made that reservation. Can you imagine what a bummer it would be to need to buy a new car, then to be salivating over the Model 3 and have to kick yourself over and over again for not having made that reservation?

In my case, due to my business I drive a lot. From Santa Barbara, where I live, I do repeated trips to Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City. In the last 4 years of Model S ownership, I have done over 75,000 miles using the Model S. These are mostly long road trips as I use the Leaf for around town. Without the Tesla Supercharger infrastructure I would have been out of business. Regardless of the Bolt, the Leaf II, or whatever the other companies come up with, if you need to travel distance, you can't beat the Superchargers.

I am a huge proponent of EV's. I loan my vehicles out at events for non EV people to try. I rent out on Turo and I financially support all EV and solar groups I come across. So back on your "donation" statement, I choose to put my money where my mouth is.

Donate to me then. I need another EVSE for home. I also want to build a stationary woodgas engine to generate electricity from all the by-products of processing firewood.

Once my Leaf is paid off, I'll have very low operating expenses. Just clicked over 50,000km on my 2015.

gene said:

In my case, due to my business I drive a lot. From Santa Barbara, where I live, I do repeated trips to Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City. In the last 4 years of Model S ownership, I have done over 75,000 miles using the Model S. These are mostly long road trips as I use the Leaf for around town. Without the Tesla Supercharger infrastructure I would have been out of business. Regardless of the Bolt, the Leaf II, or whatever the other companies come up with, if you need to travel distance, you can't beat the Superchargers.

I am a huge proponent of EV's. I loan my vehicles out at events for non EV people to try. I rent out on Turo and I financially support all EV and solar groups I come across.

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Thanks Gene - nothing beats actual experience. I do 250 mile round trips almost every week - but usually hauling a "Suburban" sized load and over a rural route (no QC charging - yet). I'm hoping someday to do that all electric. My experience with my 2012 Leaf, using it for almost all other driving needs around town has been exceptional and will definitely pay for itself in energy costs. I loan my car to my Grandkids - and they love it. I'm trying to convince as many as possible to find the right used Leaf and do the same (most Leafs here in Texas will get a free battery). It's incumbent on all of us that are passionate to support the growth of EVs in any way possible in our own circumstances.

NavyCuda said:

Nissan wants to have the best price, so keeping the same platform saves them a tremendous amount of money.

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Volvo did this with the 240 wagon for many years. I have a friend that specializes in Volvos and that decision was great for him. Most parts were usable across many years. It's not a bad thing to stick with something that works.
It's also nat a bad thing to make real improvement when needed especially if the newer tech allows it.

Re: January, 2018.

I just read some vague comments about the CARB ZEV credit rule changing for MY 2018 cars. Depending on if this is accurate, it could cause Nissan to delay the MY2018 Leaf 2.0 until January to maximize their 2017 credits. Although, if I did the calculation correctly the change is only .3 credits from 3.0 down to 2.7

Can any CARB experts confirm this change and if it is expected to cause current BEV manufactures to delay MY2018 introductions?

jhm614 said:

Re: January, 2018.

I just read some vague comments about the CARB ZEV credit rule changing for MY 2018 cars. Depending on if this is accurate, it could cause Nissan to delay the MY2018 Leaf 2.0 until January to maximize their 2017 credits. Although, if I did the calculation correctly the change is only .3 credits from 3.0 down to 2.7

Can any CARB experts confirm this change and if it is expected to cause current BEV manufactures to delay MY2018 introductions?

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Makes no sense to me to tie this change to model year as opposed to calendar year. The automakers can arbitrarily decide when to introduce a new model year (within some constraints). CARB *should* be tying their rules to calendar year, IMO. Whether that's build date or in-service date is a different question.

One possible reason why Nissan is dragging their feet on introducing a new Leaf before 2018 is that the ZEV credits drop substantially as of the 2018 MY... So, it behooves Nissan to drag out the 2017 MY until calendar 2018...

GetOffYourGas said:

Makes no sense to me to tie this change to model year as opposed to calendar year. The automakers can arbitrarily decide when to introduce a new model year (within some constraints). CARB *should* be tying their rules to calendar year, IMO. Whether that's build date or in-service date is a different question.

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I agree but this document and several others clearly indicate it is by Model Year (M2018).

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevtutorial/zev_tutorial_webcast.pdf

edit: okay, I see that the MY2017 Leaf is eligible for 3 credits per Leaf and that the MY2018 will only be eligible for 2. Does that mean a delay until January unless sales completely drop off a cliff?

Makes no sense to me to tie this change to model year as opposed to calendar year.

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In days of yore the model year began in September, to take advantage of a perceived buying season. It also coincided with the new television season. By having the excitement of the new TV season, it increased the visibility of car commercials. The synergy was all about sales.

Any thoughts on how powerful the charger might be? I have a 2012 and the thought of 6.6 instead of my 3.3 makes me lust for a 2013+. Just wondering if you think that might go higher on Leaf 2.0.

Newporttom said:

Any thoughts on how powerful the charger might be? I have a 2012 and the thought of 6.6 instead of my 3.3 makes me lust for a 2013+. Just wondering if you think that might go higher on Leaf 2.0.

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Personally I doubt it. Most public EVSEs are only 30-32A. That seems to be the defacto non-Tesla standard. For home/work charging, that's really all most people need.

What's more interesting to me is, how fast will it be able to QC? What does the current/next CHAdeMO standard support? Will Nissan rise to meet it? I don't know, but I sure hope so!

GetOffYourGas said:

Newporttom said:

Any thoughts on how powerful the charger might be? I have a 2012 and the thought of 6.6 instead of my 3.3 makes me lust for a 2013+. Just wondering if you think that might go higher on Leaf 2.0.

Click to expand...

Personally I doubt it. Most public EVSEs are only 30-32A. That seems to be the defacto non-Tesla standard. For home/work charging, that's really all most people need.

What's more interesting to me is, how fast will it be able to QC? What does the current/next CHAdeMO standard support? Will Nissan rise to meet it? I don't know, but I sure hope so!

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I would hope they go up to at least 32a vs their current 27.5a. As you said 32a(maximum continuous draw for a 40a circuit) seems to be somewhat common for EVSEs and stopping at 27.5a leaves 4.5a or a potential 1.1kw on the table. Also note 27.5 is a weird amperage anyway, I mean a 30a circuit can only support 24a continious so anyone wanting to get the max out of their current Leaf would need a 40a circuit and since a 40a circuit can officially support 32a only using 27.5a again leaves ~1.1kw on the table. I have no idea how Nissan came up with 6.6kw(or 27.5a) but it's a rather weird max :?

GetOffYourGas said:

Most public EVSEs are only 30-32A. That seems to be the defacto non-Tesla standard. For home/work charging, that's really all most people need.

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For home/work, I agree.

As for public EVSEs, this depends on where you are. Near Winthrop, WA the lowest is 48A, two 70A and one 100A locations. Not a single 32A station.

I know that the answer is different elsewhere. Near Seattle, most are around 32A.

WetEV said:

GetOffYourGas said:

Most public EVSEs are only 30-32A. That seems to be the defacto non-Tesla standard. For home/work charging, that's really all most people need.

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For home/work, I agree.

As for public EVSEs, this depends on where you are. Near Winthrop, WA the lowest is 48A, two 70A and one 100A locations. Not a single 32A station.

I know that the answer is different elsewhere. Near Seattle, most are around 32A.

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"most" are not! Just used one running around 4.9 KW (yes, it was a blink...)

jhm614 said:

... Does that mean a delay until January unless sales completely drop off a cliff?

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Not likely we'll see Gen one LEAF sales "drop off a cliff", at least until the Gen two LEAF is announced.

In fact, the reality that the LEAF Gen one is still selling so well (# 1 BEV in worldwide sales last month) is probably a major explanation for why Nissan is taking its time in introducing gen 2.

World Top 10 January 2017

Models - Nissan Leaf starts at #1

...the Nissan Leaf started the year in the leadership, something that wouldn't be much of a surprise, if it wasn't the oldest model in this Top 10 and the lowest range all-electric car here. Still, it has two important aces: First, it is sold worldwide, second, and most importantly, at this point Nissan has enough margin to make some deep discounts, winning customers by price...

Pl WORLD Jan. YTD

1 Nissan Leaf 3.679
2 Renault Zoe 2.606
3 BMW i3 2.389...

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http://ev-sales.blogspot.ch/