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This article may not be all that interesting to folks here other than noting what the masses are being fed:

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mary-barra/

That said, this line struck my funny bone:

Think of the old saw about how long it takes to turn an aircraft carrier around: It’s slow, and there’s not much to see at any given moment. But the thing about people who actually manage to turn one around is: They’ve got a freaking aircraft carrier.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
This article may not be all that interesting to folks here other than noting what the masses are being fed:

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mary-barra/

That said, this line struck my funny bone:

Think of the old saw about how long it takes to turn an aircraft carrier around: It’s slow, and there’s not much to see at any given moment. But the thing about people who actually manage to turn one around is: They’ve got a freaking aircraft carrier.

Without having taken it out of context:

For GM, the Bolt stands to offer a head start in a new kind of market for electric cars. But for the rest of us, there’s a broader significance to this news. It’s not just that Chevy will likely be first. It’s that a car company as lumbering and gigantic as GM, with infrastructure and manufacturing capacity on an epic scale, has gotten there first—and is there now. Tesla is nimble, innovative, and fun to watch, as companies go. But the Bolt is far more significant than any offering from Tesla ever could be. Why? Think of the old saw about how long it takes to turn an aircraft carrier around: It’s slow, and there’s not much to see at any given moment. But the thing about people who actually manage to turn one around is: They’ve got a freaking aircraft carrier.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
This article may not be all that interesting to folks here other than noting what the masses are being fed:

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mary-barra/

That said, this line struck my funny bone:

Think of the old saw about how long it takes to turn an aircraft carrier around: It’s slow, and there’s not much to see at any given moment. But the thing about people who actually manage to turn one around is: They’ve got a freaking aircraft carrier.
Quite a good article (from Feb. 2016). I think it does a pretty good job of giving people an idea about what's involved in bringing a car that includes lots of new tech (at least to the people doing it) to market. Hopefully, we will one day have a book on the Bolt (or the Volt FTM), similar to Michael Shnayerson's "The Car that Could", which described that entire process for the EV1. I've had Shnayerson's book on my 'EV Bibliography' topic list from the get go.
 
Article at IEVS re: the union story, with the full text of the letter written by Jose Moran, as well as back and forth from Tesla, Moran and the UAW regarding claims and counterclaims:
Tesla “Employee” Complains, Musk Disputes Claims, UAW Chimes In
http://insideevs.com/tesla-employee-complains-musk-disputes-claims-uaw-responds/
 
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.
 
lorenfb said:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.

Sure. But Tesla has begun test production of the Model 3. All of their effort is directed there. It's really no surprise that the Model S / X have taken a back seat.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
lorenfb said:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.

Sure. But Tesla has begun test production of the Model 3. All of their effort is directed there. It's really no surprise that the Model S / X have taken a back seat.

Furthermore, Tesla's guidance (10K report) indicated a 47K - 50K sales, exclusive of Model 3, for the first
half of 2017. Given that and only about 6500 YTD and unless the next four months show significant growth,
the expected first half of 2017 will only be about half that guidance.
 
lorenfb said:
GetOffYourGas said:
lorenfb said:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.

Sure. But Tesla has begun test production of the Model 3. All of their effort is directed there. It's really no surprise that the Model S / X have taken a back seat.

Furthermore, Tesla's guidance (10K report) indicated a 47K - 50K sales, exclusive of Model 3, for the first
half of 2017. Given that and only about 6500 YTD and unless the next four months show significant growth,
the expected first half of 2017 will only be about half that guidance.

Yes. And I understand where you are getting your numbers/projections. I just don't know that it's fair to run the numbers that way. Tesla lowered their production in January/February to get the Model 3 test production going. AFAIK, they are capable of turning the Model S / X production lines back on. It's still growth, but it's not as dismal as you are making it sound.

And yes, Tesla's guidance is highly optimistic. Always has been. And while Elon Musk is at the helm, it probably always will be.
 
Summary
As Autopilot related accidents pile up the cost of ownership and the cost of insurance are going up. Insurers are pulling back and we expect the problem to become worse.
US and China drove growth for Tesla in 2016. We see both of these markets becoming challenging in 2017.
Reducing Tesla 2017 unit forecast to address these trends - we may see the first negative growth year for Tesla.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/405...1f8506772d12a5d9af63241d050337b&uprof=44&dr=1
 
lorenfb said:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.

Are you trolling or just reading first Tesla sales report ever?

First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....
 
lorenfb said:
Summary
As Autopilot related accidents pile up the cost of ownership and the cost of insurance are going up. Insurers are pulling back and we expect the problem to become worse.
US and China drove growth for Tesla in 2016. We see both of these markets becoming challenging in 2017.
Reducing Tesla 2017 unit forecast to address these trends - we may see the first negative growth year for Tesla.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/405...1f8506772d12a5d9af63241d050337b&uprof=44&dr=1

Article lacks any data about AP accident rate. Insurance companies base premiums on statistics - not based on car makers media attention....
 
Rebel44 said:
First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....

Hardly indicative of an automotive company that's capable of being competitive and profitable long term,
i.e. what happens when the Model 3 (????) potentially arrives? By the way, where's the metric that would
would indicate a backlog of U.S. unfilled sales orders? If this were the case, I'm sure Elon would report it, right?
 
lorenfb said:
Rebel44 said:
First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....

Hardly indicative of an automotive company that's capable of being competitive and profitable long term,
i.e. what happens when the Model 3 (????) potentially arrives? By the way, where's the metric that would
would indicate a backlog of U.S. unfilled sales orders? If this were the case, I'm sure Elon would report it, right?

Its an indicatinve of a company that doesnt yet produce enough cars to easily by itself fill whole ships for each export destination every month....

And you can confirm this by looking at tesla historical US sales data
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ - if you scroll down a bit you will see that quaters 3rd monts always have a lot more Tesla sales in USA than first 2 months of that quarter.

This is neither a rocket science, nor anything new.
 
OTOH, AP 2.0 is demonstrably even less road-worthy at the moment than AP1.0 was, as various videos have shown. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ1XLqc5IUg and especially https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYav3_7miIc&feature=youtu.be

for examples, not to mention http://www.autoblog.com/2017/03/03/tesla-autopilot-barrier-crash/. It beats the hell out of me why Tesla would release software in such an obviously inadequate state to the public. Show those videos to a jury after an accident, and the only question is how far Tesla will have to bend over.
 
Rebel44 said:
Its an indicatinve of a company that doesnt yet produce enough cars to easily by itself fill whole ships for each export destination every month....

Sounds like a marginal company with poor planning that can't solve simple logistics problems!
 
Summary
There's a new Tesla scandal brewing.
Tesla, which once used OTA updates to improve customers' cars, has now crossed the Rubicon.
Customers can no longer be sure an OTA update won't be carrying undisclosed updates seeking to reduce Tesla's liabilities.

My bearish thesis on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is simple: A capital-intensive enterprise running at a loss even while having the high-end EV market it sells into all to itself. Once true competition arrives (starting mostly in 2018, though the Bolt already shows a proper EV powertrain), Tesla will see even lower margins than the ones it enjoys today. Given this dynamic, Tesla will have bankruptcy risk in a competitive EV environment.
This article, however, is about a different development. I'd gather that most investors, even most of its bullish fans, don't follow Tesla close enough to know of all the new developments. There was, once, a tiny scandal where Tesla ended up having to settle with Norwegian customers because of having made what turned out to be unrealistic horsepower claims. That, along with other smaller issues like using different calculation methods for the 0-60 mph times, gracefully fell by the wayside.
However, there's a new scandal brewing whose implications might be far larger. Let me give you some context.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034054-new-tesla-scandal-brewing
 
TSLA's projected Model 3 production timeline looks to be slipping from exceedingly unlikely, to impossible, IMO:

Tesla may not have a Model 3 beta test car on the road yet
With deliveries slated to begin in mid-2017, there was no tester at the end of 2016.


A few hundred-thousand folks who have been waiting impatiently for their preordered Tesla Model 3 might see this as a bad sign: Tesla, in a stock filing with the feds, reported that at year-end 2016, it had not put a Model 3 beta test car on the road.

That was as of two-plus months ago, of course. There may well be a prototype running around out there at this very moment, built from - and being used to test - factory production parts. In early February, the company said it would begin pilot production of a few Model 3s on Feb. 20, and presumably a beta car or cars would be chosen from that run. But keep in mind the company reiterated late last month that it intends to begin producing Model 3s in July - and that's right around the corner.

The beta-car mention in the annual filing with the Security and Exchange Commission is the second cautionary sign this week, after a Goldman Sachs analyst said the company is unlikely to meet its summer production goal and he downgraded the automaker's stock to "sell."

The California-based electric-vehicle maker reiterated in its investors note last week that Model 3 vehicles would start rolling off the production line as soon as July. Tesla said it would be producing 5,000 Model 3 vehicles a week by the end of the year and will double that pace to an annualized rate of more than a half-million Model 3 vehicles by the end of 2018...
http://www.autoblog.com/2017/03/03/tesla-model-3-beta-test-cars-on-road/?ncid=edlinkusauto00000015

And it's not just production workers who seem to be stressed by Musk's demands that they do the impossible:

At Tesla, Departures Mount at a Critical Time

Tesla Inc. is losing key personnel as it races to bring the Model 3 -- its most critical electric sedan yet -- to market later this year.

Chief Financial Officer Jason Wheeler’s impending departure, announced just 15 months after he joined Tesla from Google, will be the latest in a raft of largely under-the-radar exits. Former executives, who spoke on the condition they not be identified, cited a range of reasons for their exits over the past year, including long hours in the rush to high-volume production, mission creep, and a tense culture that reflects their visionary but indefatigable chief executive officer, Elon Musk.

“Tesla looks like a company that is getting stretched to the limit,” said Dave Sullivan, an analyst at industry researcher AutoPacific Inc. “The pressure of getting out the Model 3 is getting to everybody, from the people on the factory floor to the people at the top.”...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-03/at-tesla-departures-mount-as-carmaker-stretched-to-the-limit
 
edatoakrun said:
A few hundred-thousand folks who have been waiting impatiently for their preordered Tesla Model 3
I think the 400K people with pre-orders are waiting quite patiently.

That said, this year will be definitely be a trying time for Tesla.
 
Interesting story, lightly seasoned with a grain of salt

“Let them go to Tesla, they will be back in short order,” said an industry source with deep knowledge of Toyota and its customers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/03/09/the-future-tesla-model-3-buyer-drives-a-toyota-and-thats-a-huge-problem/#7d200eb61680
 
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