LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

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What it'll come down to for me will be how it compares to the Bolt I'd get otherwise, a blue LT with comfort package and QC, MSRP $38,800.

Have to wait until September to find out the details, but basically a 60 kWh Leaf with QC and heated seats.

Disadvantage to Leaf will be having to wait who knows how long before it can be delivered, sticking me with a 24 kWh car past warranty, (but with 3 free months) and likely to having to pay full MSRP since they probably won't be dealing right off. OTOH, there is the $1000 loyalty and waived return lease fee and $500 wear allowance.

To be compared to whatever lease deals are available on the Bolt by then, plus maybe conquest cash, less the cost of returning the Leaf.
 
ydnas7 said:
Nissan's incremental cost per kWh will be substantially less than GM's $145 deal from LG. so lets pick a number say $120/kWh
pack stays the same, no cell cooling costs, so a 40kWh version saves Nissan 60-40=20kWh x $120 or about $2400.

This claim strikes me as out of the blue and unsubstantiated. What is your evidence that Nissan's cell cost is lower than GM's?
 
There was an article in our local paper that I think came from the Associated Press,
saying that GM was losing $7k-9k per bolt sold. I would think Nissan would get no
advantage for this kind of subsidy. Is GM having the whole battery pack built by LG?
Maybe Nissan gets some relief by building there own battery, even if not the electrodes,
or maybe they license the electrode(and separator) from LG Chem. Or maybe they
are not using LG Chem for gen 2.
 
cliff said:
There was an article in our local paper that I think came from the Associated Press,
saying that GM was losing $7k-9k per bolt sold. I would think Nissan would get no
advantage for this kind of subsidy. Is GM having the whole battery pack built by LG?
Maybe Nissan gets some relief by building there own battery, even if not the electrodes,
or maybe they license the electrode(and separator) from LG Chem. Or maybe they
are not using LG Chem for gen 2.

The $9k loss per Bolt is an extremely sketchy number. It is from an anonymous source. It doesn't mention what quantity of Bolts leads to this loss. So does it include all the R&D spend, spread out over 30k Bolts per year for 5 years? Is it the incremental cost of building a single Bolt? Somewhere in between? Who knows!

I put no weight on that number.
 
cliff said:
There was an article in our local paper that I think came from the Associated Press,
saying that GM was losing $7k-9k per bolt sold. I would think Nissan would get no
advantage for this kind of subsidy. Is GM having the whole battery pack built by LG?
Maybe Nissan gets some relief by building there own battery, even if not the electrodes,
or maybe they license the electrode(and separator) from LG Chem. Or maybe they
are not using LG Chem for gen 2.
I agree that 9k per loss per Bolt seems completely unsubstantiated. And Chevy is already pushing for a nationwide rollout, so that seems counter to losing 9k per sale. Now, if they drop back to selling just a couple hundred Bolts per month... maybe that a different story.

Re: the LG batteries, per Takao Asami, a Nissan senior vice president of research and advanced engineering, the Leaf 2.0 will continue to use air cooled batteries. If that is accurate, there is no need to buy a battery from an outside vendor.
 
Hopefully, hopefully, Nissan will at least have the car designed to be able to use the cabin A/C to cool the pack slightly. That would be important.
 
Yeah they added the a/c cooling system into the e-nv200 pack and it was supposed to cool during dcfc
Not sure if that system activates any other time. Cooling during dcfc would certainly allow a long range leaf 150 / 220 miles to dcfc repeatedly during a road trip without overheating the cells.
Seems like at least this type of TMS is a must for reliable long range travel.
Current leaf models hit the temp limits or close to themon the pack during these types of trips even in moderate weather.
Heck even my BMW plug in hybrid x5 fires up the ac system and fans during warmer days and it only charges at 3.6kw. Now maybe it's cooling the OBC and maybe the pack, my bet is both and that the cooling circuit goes thru both.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
DNAinaGoodWay said:
Why the long delay? Did they screw something up and maybe still haven't solved it? Last minute changes to compete? Damn frustrating.

well what is your opinion of long? The 2018 had been slated for release anywhere from late Q2 to mid Q3 so in reality, only a few months.

Well, it is what it is, but what it is isn't great. Since they started with the Leaf in 2010 I figured they'd be first to market with an affordable 60 kWh car, but no. So now they've given Chevy almost a year lead time, when they might've rolled out last year and kept a lot more current leasees. Those few months might end up being a pretty big deal for them. The 2018 will have to be very compelling.

Maybe if it's completely submersible up to 500 ft for a few miles, or is capable of short flights, say up to 10 miles?
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
DNAinaGoodWay said:
Why the long delay? Did they screw something up and maybe still haven't solved it? Last minute changes to compete? Damn frustrating.

well what is your opinion of long? The 2018 had been slated for release anywhere from late Q2 to mid Q3 so in reality, only a few months.

Well, it is what it is, but what it is isn't great. Since they started with the Leaf in 2010 I figured they'd be first to market with an affordable 60 kWh car, but no. So now they've given Chevy almost a year lead time, when they might've rolled out last year and kept a lot more current leasees. Those few months might end up being a pretty big deal for them. The 2018 will have to be very compelling.

Maybe if it's completely submersible up to 500 ft for a few miles, or is capable of short flights, say up to 10 miles?

I don't know. We drove the Bolt and didn't like it as much as the current leaf so we bought a left over 2016 SV. But honestly what was also in the back of my mind was our previous three experiences in the last 15 years with Chevy's. One truck and two cars. They were Junk within a year of rolling off the lot. Keeping them past warranty was not an option as they would have nickel and dimed us to death. I don't get that impression with our leaf. I honestly don't think I could ever buy another Chevy and I know a few others who feel the same. I think the new Leaf will be head and shoulders above the Bolt because, at least for us, our 2016 already is. If all someone wants (or needs) is lots of range then pile on to the Chevy but I don't think its a good idea to confuse range with quality or driving experience. To each his own. Everybody has their own tastes.
 
I really don't understand their logic on a short time between displaying the car & having it available. My 2011 is going to meet my needs through the summer. Six days a week I drive about 40 miles. Every Saturday I go 200 miles through the mountains & use my wife's Volt. By winter, it won't meet the 40-mile need. I plan to replace the battery or buy a new car.
If I decide to buy a new car and demand for the Bolt makes a great deal available in Aug, it won't matter how wonderful the Sept reveal is, it's too late. If I know there is a good chance the 2.0 is something more than a new shade of black with blue metal-flake, I can push things a couple more months using a DCFC on the way home. With nothing to look forward to, I'm going to be very susceptible to the charms of my Chevy dealer (350#, missing teeth, smells like stale cigar smoke, and belches a lot, but is known to have a car that will very likely meet my needs 7 days a week if I trickle charge at the destination).
 
My situation is similar. My Leaf will get me through the Summer ok, and the Fall as well, but once it starts to get really cold I'll be hurting for range. If we have a hot Summer the car will lose the first bar. I'd be willing to order a new Leaf to my specs (a first for me!) but it would have to be delivered by early December, not by New Year's Day. Nissan has to make the price attractive, and the car has to be available for test drives by journalists at least, in early September. August would be much better, because of the likely Labor day sales.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I don't know actual numbers, but the lower priced S seemed to sell better than the SV or SL.

Just going by what I've read here, and seen in searching dealer stock, it appears to me that the best selling Leaf models are, in descending order:

SV with Premium Package

SL with premium Package

S with Charge Package

SV/SL without Premium

S without Charge Package.


Actual sales numbers will be different, because both the S, and the SV without Premium get discounted heavily, and sell, eventually, but the above is based on how fast models sell, not just on how many sell when the price is slashed. It is, admittedly, just an semi-educated guess, but I usually have a feel for these things. Anyway, based on the above, I think that many people want a combination of good price and good features, while many others look for one feature combined with lowest price. The latter would be the S with Charge Package. So if Nisan wants to compete on price, they should build the S with QC and 6.6kw charger, and 30kwh pack. If they want to compete on price and features, a $36k SV with Premium and 60kwh pack should be a winner. If they can sell the loaded SL for much less than the Bolt Premiere, that too should work.

With all due respect, how does "looking at dealer inventory" give you ANY indication of what's "best selling?" Wouldn't inventory tell you what's NOT selling? Do you have any idea exactly how long the inventory you've found has been on their lots? Also, your reading here, with a few hundred aficionados posting, is far from "scientific" or

Without actual sales data, that is simply WILD speculation.

According to a gentlemen who sells the most LEAFs in the nation, less expensive sells better but many want the QC, so that's a consideration. Premium Package is easily the least important to a sale and the rarest LEAF configuration, so the smallest of sales:

S far and away the best seller.
SV next
SL last
 
Yes, dealer inventory tells you what is not selling, and the longer they stay there, and which ones are sold last, are what I was using to indicate sales popularity. There are usually roughly equal numbers of SVs and S models in stock when inventory arrives, with the SVs with premium, along with the usually smaller number of SLs with premium, selling first. If you want to go by total sales per year then the S probably does lead - but that's because of large end of year discounts, not because the model itself is "popular." The S with Charge Package is "popular" but more so when on sale than when at full MSRP. The SV with Premium isn't usually as hard to move. SVs without Premium sit on the lot almost as long as the 3.3 kw S models.

Maybe we should get back on topic!
 
GetOffYourGas said:
ydnas7 said:
Nissan's incremental cost per kWh will be substantially less than GM's $145 deal from LG. so lets pick a number say $120/kWh
pack stays the same, no cell cooling costs, so a 40kWh version saves Nissan 60-40=20kWh x $120 or about $2400.

This claim strikes me as out of the blue and unsubstantiated. What is your evidence that Nissan's cell cost is lower than GM's?

Yes, you are right, I am wrong

but

When Takao Asami wasa directly about GM's statement that it was paying only $145 per kilowatt-hour for the LG Chem cells in its 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, Asami said that figure "would not surprise me at all." And, he added with a smile, GM "probably has some safety margin" on that figure as well. http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108175_next-nissan-leaf-propilot-self-driving-included-200-mile-range-or-more-confirmed

Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.
 
ydnas7 said:
Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.
Sandy,

I am not familiar with "take or leave" vs. "take or pay". Would you expand on that?

Also, remember, that LG is producing more than just the batteries for the Bolt. GM maybe getting a battery deal based on the fact that LG wants to break into the motor / controller / inverter market as well as finding a larger market for their HVAC and infotainment products.
 
jhm614 said:
ydnas7 said:
Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.
Sandy,

I am not familiar with "take or leave" vs. "take or pay". Would you expand on that?

Also, remember, that LG is producing more than just the batteries for the Bolt. GM maybe getting a battery deal based on the fact that LG wants to break into the motor / controller / inverter market as well as finding a larger market for their HVAC and infotainment products.

take it or leave it, the buyer may choose to buy or walk away from any quantity.

take or pay, the buyer has contracted to pay for a set minimum quantity, whether they take delivery of that quantity or not. For example, if GM has a take or pay with a seat supplier for 1,000,000 units, but due to GFC only takes 700,000 units, GM would still pay for 1,000,000 units.

'take or pay' prices should be lower than 'take or leave' because the seller does not need to include certain risk contingencies in their price. That is one component of the" safety margin" that Takao Asami was talking about.

Owning a factory is a take or pay proposition, significant costs are sunk, but incremental per unit costs should be cheaper.
 
Thank you for the business economics education, Sandy. I was wondering about those terms too, but jhm614 beat me to the question.

You also make an important point about chasing volume. Here in the US, looking at US sales numbers, it is easy to lose sight of that. But, if I'm not mistaken, the Leaf is still the best-selling EV (worldwide) ever made.

With GM's battery cost pretty much revealed, Tesla advertising its target cost with the Gigafactory, and the likelihood of Nissan being in the same game for cost, the near future is going to be very interesting.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Thank you for the business economics education, Sandy. I was wondering about those terms too, but jhm614 beat me to the question.

You also make an important point about chasing volume. Here in the US, looking at US sales numbers, it is easy to lose sight of that. But, if I'm not mistaken, the Leaf is still the best-selling EV (worldwide) ever made.

With GM's battery cost pretty much revealed, Tesla advertising its target cost with the Gigafactory, and the likelihood of Nissan being in the same game for cost, the near future is going to be very interesting.

LEAF 2 will be lower cost than the Bolt, but pricing is up to marketing. (and additional bling like self driving abilities)

In non USA countries, 'autopilot' night time pedestrian avoidance will become a requirement for 5 stars. Its already affecting budget cars like Suzuki who are changing to compliant systems. Nissan ProPilot (and similar from other manufacturers) will raise the price. I don't see this as a key requirement for GM Bolt.

what I'm predicting is that midlevel Nissan LEAF 2 will not be cheaper than midlevel GM Bolt simply because what Nissan saves in not having a TMS, will be spent on having a supercruise/Propilot ability instead.
 
More spy shots - European location this time -- looks similar to the US shots from last month. One article compares to the IDS, the other to the Sway. To me, the front end on the camo looks much larger than the Sway.

http://www.motor1.com/news/140512/2018-nissan-leaf-spy-photos/

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/nissan/leaf/92857/all-new-nissan-leaf-spied-revealing-sharp-new-look
 
jhm614 said:
More spy shots - European location this time -- looks similar to the US shots from last month...
Recent rendering of what it might look like without the camo like was posted below:

Future Cars: 2018 Nissan Leaf Keeps Things Familiar

...IDS Concept-Inspired Styling

In 2015, Nissan revealed the IDS autonomous EV concept, which was said to be a strong pointer for the next Leaf. Fast forward to today, and whilst elements of the show car will make into production, the overall look is worlds apart.

Instead, the new EV will be a visual crossbreed between the latest Micra supermini and out-going Leaf. Frontal styling will be headlined by a mono-tooth, V-Motion grille, chiseled lower bumper and wedge-shaped headlamps.

The view from the side will be fairly conventional; tall and stubby proportions, floating roof and a blacked-out C-Pillar up-kink (not too different to the Chevy Bolt) are the go here. Out back, the hatch will be dominated by horizontal thin-wedge tail lamps and a subtle rear diffuser...
http://www.carscoops.com/2017/03/future-cars-2018-nissan-leaf-keeps.html
 
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