Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

GRA · Apr 14, 2017

Via ABG, a similarly negative view of the Clarity BEV as has been expressed here by many:

The Honda Clarity EV doesn't make any sense
A lousy value proposition, especially compared with its own twin.

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/04/13/honda-clarity-ev-electric-commentary-new-york-nyias/

At this year's New York Auto Show, Honda launched the Clarity Fuel Cell's counterparts, the Clarity Electric and Clarity Plug-In Hybrid. It makes sense that Honda would expand its alternative-fuel model to encompass electricity, since hydrogen isn't a sure thing. What doesn't make sense is why Honda would enter the EV game with such an uncompetitive vehicle.

When compared with current electric cars in the marketplace, the Clarity Electric comes up short in both range and price. The Honda will go only 80 miles on a charge, and the company will charge you a price in the mid-$30,000s for the privilege. Both the Nissan Leaf and Kia Soul EV outperform the Clarity Electric with ranges of 107 and 93 miles respectively, and price tags in the low-$30,000 realm. But the bigger issue is the Chevrolet Bolt EV, which offers a whopping 238 miles for just over $37,000. (Note: All given prices are before incentives). The Clarity is a pitiful value proposition from a range standpoint. . . .

The Clarity Electric comes across as a truly half-hearted attempt at making a full EV. Even the Electric's availability seems reluctant, as it will only be sold in California and Oregon to begin. Perhaps Honda itself realizes that the Clarity Electric isn't good enough to take on the EV establishment. And if that's the case, we have to ask, why did Honda even bother with the car in the first place? Let's hope subsequent Clarity Electrics will be more compelling.

Click to expand...

There's some praise for its size and luxury based on the FCEV's interior, but they then point to the PHEV as offering the same without the limitations.

GRA · Apr 18, 2017

Via GCC:

Toyota to begin demonstration tests of Mirai fuel cell vehicle in China

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/04/20170418-mirai.html

Toyota Motor Corporation will send two Mirai fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to China in October 2017 to conduct demonstration tests in the country. Coinciding with the start of these tests, Toyota will also establish a hydrogen station at TMEC (Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing China), its Chinese research and development base.

Toyota is participating in the Accelerating the Development and Commercialization of Fuel Cell Vehicles in China project, and will carry out demonstration tests on the Mirai FCV for three years between 2017 and 2020. The projects is funded by the United Nations Development Project and the Global Environment Facility in order to provide support to developing countries. Started in 2003, the project has initiated FC bus services in China, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, and India. The third phase is scheduled to expand the scope of the project to include passenger vehicles.

Toyota will conduct research into vehicle performance within the environment in China, research into the quality of China’s hydrogen, as well as a variety of quality and durability evaluations. . . .

There are presently five hydrogen stations in China which are centered in the metropolitan regions of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The hydrogen station which Toyota plans to construct at TMEC will be the first of its kind in Changshu.

Toyota must have gotten a waiver from the Chinese government for the Mirai, as it uses a Type 4 (fully-wrapped composite fuel tank with plastic liner) which AFAIA remains banned in China (as discussed upthread).

TonyWilliams · Apr 19, 2017

Boom, boom, boom... Toyota changing course to EVs for regulatory compliance in China:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-shanghai-electric-idUSKBN17L1VC

GRA · Apr 20, 2017

Via GCC:

EMS develops new H2 storage system targeting refueling stations

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/04/20170420-ems.html

EMS, a German-Dutch engineering company with roots in the nuclear industry, is developing a new hydrogen storage system. The EMS storage solution, designed to store more than 1000 kg H2 at a nominal working pressure of 500 bar, contains high-strength lightweight composite (CFRP) pressure vessels (type 4) which will be embedded in standard containers to serve at H2 fueling stations. . . .

There's a rendering. Presumably they'd need an extra stage of compression/storage to kick it up to 825 BAR to fuel 700 Bar FCEVs, but maybe this is only intended for trucks and buses, which typically use 350 BAR storage. The Press release lacks such details.

GRA · Apr 20, 2017

Here's GCR's take on the same Reuter's story Tony linked a couple of posts back, which largely matches my evaluation of Toyota's rationale:

Why Toyota's 'agonizing' U-turn toward electric cars? Because China says so

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110029_why-toyotas-agonizing-u-turn-toward-electric-cars-because-china-says-so

. . . Every company selling in China is now developing them [BEVs], and Toyota has to follow suit, no matter how little it likes the prospect. So despite statements by its chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, known as the "father of the Prius," that an electric vehicle was useful "only as a neighborhood errands car," the company has no choice if it's to succeed in the world's largest car market.

Just don't make the mistake of believing that Toyota has gotten religion on the merits of all-electric cars. It hasn't, at least based on the statements of its executives at the Shanghai show.

ydnas7 · Apr 20, 2017

Toyota has been proactively fighting against EVs since early 2007 (Toyota VS Better Place in Israel)

wow, thats a decade
Global plugin vehicle fleet has progressed quite nicely, HFCVs still a joke.

GRA · Apr 24, 2017

Via IEVS:

Is Toyota's hydrogen fuel-cell fervor foolish, or foresighted? (with charts)

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ell-fervor-foolish-or-foresighted-with-charts

ydnas7 · Apr 26, 2017

GRA said:
Via IEVS:

Is Toyota's hydrogen fuel-cell fervor foolish, or foresighted? (with charts)

Click to expand...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ell-fervor-foolish-or-foresighted-with-charts

Passenger Vehicle Hydrogen fuel cell continue their irrelevance.

Its actually quite a step, H2 enthusiasts publicly double checking that Toyota is still in the game.

What happens once Toyota sells a real Toyota EV with a Toyota badge? Will anyone fund the hydrogen infrastructure then?

(Ans, no they won't)

http://www.firstelementfuel.com/
they sell something called 'True Zero'

i kinda feel sad for these guys, they trying to do solve a problem, but are barking up the wrong tree.

GRA · Apr 26, 2017

ydnas7 said:
GRA said:

Via IEVS:

Is Toyota's hydrogen fuel-cell fervor foolish, or foresighted? (with charts)

Click to expand...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ell-fervor-foolish-or-foresighted-with-charts

Click to expand...

Passenger Vehicle Hydrogen fuel cell continue their irrelevance.

Its actually quite a step, H2 enthusiasts publicly double checking that Toyota is still in the game.

Actually, he describes himself as an EV supporter, with 'EV' applying to all types. Like me, he believes in following multiple approaches to ZEVs, in order to transition off fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

ydnas7 said:
What happens once Toyota sells a real Toyota EV with a Toyota badge? Will anyone fund the hydrogen infrastructure then?

(Ans, no they won't)

You're entitled to your opinion.

ydnas7 said:
http://www.firstelementfuel.com/
they sell something called 'True Zero'

i kinda feel sad for these guys, they trying to do solve a problem, but are barking up the wrong tree.

Might as well feel sad for all the battery and EV starttups that have failed, then. Whether First Element ultimately succeeds or fails remains to be seen, but at the moment they have the largest network of stations in California (building of which was subsidized by Toyota), including the one closest to me. They also have by far the highest-priced H2 in the state ($16.78/kg. locally), but as they have little competition in most areas and Toyota and Honda are paying for the fuel, that will continue for at least another year or two.

GRA · Apr 26, 2017

Via GCC:

Toyota begins trial operation of hybrid power generation system: SOFCs plus micro turbines

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/04/20170426-toyota.html

Toyota Motor Corporation has begun trial operations of the pressurized combined power generation system which has been installed at Motomachi Plant in Toyota City, Aichi Prefecture. The hybrid power generation system combines the use of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and micro gas turbines. The trial operations will utilize the system as an internal power generation facility, with the aim of testing and evaluating the system’s energy efficiency, performance, and durability.

The hybrid power generation system uses hydrogen and carbon monoxide which have been extracted by reforming natural gas, and employs fuel cell technology and micro gas turbine in its two-stage power generation mechanism, with a rated output of 250 kW. In addition, it has a cogeneration system (combined heat and power) that uses the waste heat produced in power generation.

This hybrid system achieves high generating efficiency (55%) with its two-stage power generation system, and also increases overall efficiency (65%) by using the cogeneration system. For this reason, Toyota has positioned it as an effective technology that would help to realize the goal of achieving a low-carbon society. The electricity and waste heat generated is used within Motomachi Plant. . . .

ydnas7 · Apr 26, 2017

GRA said:
Might as well feel sad for all the battery and EV starttups that have failed, then. Whether First Element ultimately succeeds or fails remains to be seen, but at the moment they have the largest network of stations in California (building of which was subsidized by Toyota), including the one closest to me. They also have by far the highest-priced H2 in the state ($16.78/kg. locally), but as they have little competition in most areas and Toyota and Honda are paying for the fuel, that will continue for at least another year or two.

Yes I do feel sad for the fallen early PH/EV pioneer companies,
Better Place
Coda
Fisker

but the industry has grown, PHEVs were a life line to Mitsubishi,
not that long ago, GM's H2 fleet was larger than all other manufacturers EVs fleets. Now that thought seems so ludicrous.

H2 has no future as an automotive fuel, at least no 700bar, semi-cryogenic future anyway. We've gone through this before, but batteries are cheaper than H2 infrastructure, and about 3x more efficient on a electric supply route.

I don't know what China's regs are. but Toyota will have to either put up, or shut up.
Who is going to put up the money for H2 infrastructure? seems like its left to California taxpayers and Toyota's goodwill.
That is not sustainable, Age has consequences, even more than elections do.

Japan invents, Korea builds out, China dominates.
The standard is electric, H2 fuel cells are a foot note in the pages of someone else history.

GRA · Apr 26, 2017

ydnas7 said:
GRA said:

Might as well feel sad for all the battery and EV starttups that have failed, then. Whether First Element ultimately succeeds or fails remains to be seen, but at the moment they have the largest network of stations in California (building of which was subsidized by Toyota), including the one closest to me. They also have by far the highest-priced H2 in the state ($16.78/kg. locally), but as they have little competition in most areas and Toyota and Honda are paying for the fuel, that will continue for at least another year or two.

Click to expand...

Yes I do feel sad for the fallen early PH/EV pioneer companies,
Better Place
Coda
Fisker

A123
Envia
Think
Faraday Future (almost certainly), plus any number of others going back over more than a century.

ydnas7 said:
but the industry has grown, PHEVs were a life line to Mitsubishi,
not that long ago, GM's H2 fleet was larger than all other manufacturers EVs fleets. Now that thought seems so ludicrous.

H2 has no future as an automotive fuel, at least no 700bar, semi-cryogenic future anyway. We've gone through this before, but batteries are cheaper than H2 infrastructure, and about 3x more efficient on a electric supply route.

I don't know what China's regs are. but Toyota will have to either put up, or shut up.
Who is going to put up the money for H2 infrastructure? seems like its left to California taxpayers and Toyota's goodwill.
That is not sustainable, Age has consequences, even more than elections do.

Japan invents, Korea builds out, China dominates.
The standard is electric, H2 fuel cells are a foot note in the pages of someone else history.

Toyota and Honda obviously disagree with you, and I suspect they've put just a bit more time and money into the calcs than anyone here has (not that that guarantees success). BTW, Honda's also putting up money for H2 fueling infrastructure in the U.S., as is Shell. In other countries as here, it's a mix of government and industry support.

China allows FCEVs but currently not Type 4 tanks, apparently owing to lack of quality control/adequate regulatory controls in China (with some amount that can probably be chalked up to keeping out the competition). See: https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/cng_h2_workshop_4_zheng.pdf for some examples of failed Type 4 tanks there, although that dates to 2009.

Also see this paper, starting on the 5th page at the paragraph that begins "Ms. Min Lei":

International Hydrogen Fuel and Pressure Vessel Forum 2010
Beijing, China
September 27-29, 2010

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/ihfpv_proceedings.pdf

which goes into much more detail of the testing and results of Type 4 tanks. After describing the test methods and observed results, she summarized as follows:

Ms Min concluded that after the early stage of use, the residual strength of the cylinders decreased in
varying degrees but the cylinders still met service requirements. The main failure factor of the cylinders
was failure of the plastic inner liner due to quality defects that led to cracking and leakage. Other failure
factors included damage to the outer surface of cylinder from road hazards and inadequate joining of the
cylinder body and the boss. Therefore, the main factors affecting the safety of the cylinders were the
reliability of the inner liner, the reliability of cylinder-boss joints, and residual strength of the wrapped
layer around the cylinder. Unexpected factors in use include external surface damage, vibration, and
impact.

ydnas7 · Apr 26, 2017

GRA said:
A123
Envia
Think
Faraday Future (almost certainly), plus any number of others going back over more than a century.

A123 was a battery company
Envia was a corrupt entity that stole IP from others and presented it as its own
Think, those were too small to be cars anyway.
Faraday Future is redundant if Lucid Motors succeeds

Only 2 American car companies still exist as founded over the past century and a bit. Ford and Tesla. All others have gone bankrupt or been acquired by others.

Many people have industrial experience with hydrogen, it will never ever ever be competitive with electricity for turning motors when there is an iota of cost being relevant.

never ever on this planet anyway.

Toyota and BMW don't seem to have much experience with hydrogen on an industrial scale. take USA H2 production, just how much is used by Toyota and BMW, it will be less than 1% of 1%.
Toyota is simply naive in regards to hydrogen. I doubt a single Toyota automotive engineer has ever worked at a fertilizer or explosive factory that consumes vast quantities of hydrogen. Toyota did not know what they did not know. Experience has been very expensive for them to find out this is a dud.

GRA · Apr 27, 2017

ydnas7 said:
GRA said:

A123
Envia
Think
Faraday Future (almost certainly), plus any number of others going back over more than a century.

Click to expand...

A123 was a battery company
Envia was a corrupt entity that stole IP from others and presented it as its own
Think, those were too small to be cars anyway.
Faraday Future is redundant if Lucid Motors succeeds

Sure, just as all other companies that failed (which is most of them) did so for a variety of reasons. If any of this were easy there'd be a lot more successful companies. On that note:

As “Big Boys” Arrive, Bollore Backs Out Of Electric Car Biz

http://insideevs.com/bollore-to-back-out-of-electric-car-biz/

ydnas7 said:
Only 2 American car companies still exist as founded over the past century and a bit. Ford and Tesla. All others have gone bankrupt or been acquired by others.

As above.

ydnas7 said:
Many people have industrial experience with hydrogen, it will never ever ever be competitive with electricity for turning motors when there is an iota of cost being relevant.

never ever on this planet anyway.

As we've discussed many times before, lowest cost is only relevant if it has the necessary capability. At the moment, BEVs only have necessary capability in some areas but are too expensive in others; FCEVs have the capability in all of them, but are currently too expensive across the board.

ydnas7 said:
Toyota and BMW don't seem to have much experience with hydrogen on an industrial scale. take USA H2 production, just how much is used by Toyota and BMW, it will be less than 1% of 1%.
Toyota is simply naive in regards to hydrogen. I doubt a single Toyota automotive engineer has ever worked at a fertilizer or explosive factory that consumes vast quantities of hydrogen. Toyota did not know what they did not know. Experience has been very expensive for them to find out this is a dud.

As I said before, you are entitled to your opinion; I'm willing to wait on events.

GRA · Apr 28, 2017

Via ABG:

BMW, Norway take on the race for cleaner hydrogen
It takes energy to make energy, and renewables are the key to green H2.

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/04/28/bmw-norway-hydrogen-power/

. . . BMW is currently proposing its own hydrogen solutions, showcasing solar-powered electrolysis at the Hannover Trade Fair, as The Detroit Bureau reports . . . And the fact that BMW is pursuing clean hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles is interesting, considering that another German automaker, Mercedes-Benz, is pumping the brakes on its fuel cell program. . . .

Japan is one country where hydrogen has a future, and, as Reuters reports, Australia and Norway are competing to be the source of that hydrogen. With Japanese President Shinzo Abe seeking to showcase hydrogen power for the 2020 Olympic Games, Kawasaki Heavy Industries is looking to develop a supply chain. That's where Norway and Australia come in.

Again, the cleanliness of the source is key here. Australia has been working to create H2 from brown coal. That involves separating the carbon from the coal, and sequestering it underground in old wells. Norway, on the other hand, has a greener solution along the lines of what BMW is pursuing. Norway's Nel Hydrogen has launched a pilot project to produce H2 from renewable sources like hydroelectric and wind energy to be shipped to Japan and elsewhere. Norway's timeline could beat Australia's to market, which would mean cleaner fuel for Japan. . . .

Hopefully, the Australian brown coal chain won't develop, as it largely defeats the purpose of transitioning to H2.

RegGuheert · Apr 30, 2017

GRA said:
Hopefully, the Australian brown coal chain won't develop, as it largely defeats the purpose of transitioning to H2.

And what would that "purpose" be? Likely to distract the world from the fact that BEVs are the endgame in transportation. Or perhaps to ensure that people are NOT able to generate their own transportation fuel at home, instead being forced to purchase it from centralized suppliers.

From the article:

Autoblog said:
Hydrogen's automotive future is unclear right now. With plug-in cars achieving more range at lower costs, and with a lack of a robust hydrogen fueling infrastructure, it feels like battery electric vehicles are pulling out ahead of their fuel cell counterparts.

It feels like that because it IS like that.

Nowhere in the article do they mention the fact that 2/3 of the energy harvested is thrown away by the hydrolysis->transportation->storage->compression->decompression->fuel cell cycle. That's the kind of inconvenient fact which needs to be suppressed to sell technology like using H2 for automotive transportation.

There are applications for H2 where it has value today:
- Indoor round-the-clock fleets of forklifts (though I suspect Li-ion batteries will eventually win this market)
- Seasonal storage of excess renewable energy production (The question is whether it is better to throw away ALL of the renewable excess generation or preserve 1/3 of it at high cost. I suspect the best solution with the current state of technology is to store it in batteries and use 90% of what is produced in the near term. Let's charge BEVs when there is too much generation!)

As I have said in the past, if you want heat, it would be much better and cheaper to run heat pumps from the electricity and reap a 3:1 IMPROVEMENT in the heat that is produced.

GRA · Apr 30, 2017

RegGuheert said:
GRA said:

Hopefully, the Australian brown coal chain won't develop, as it largely defeats the purpose of transitioning to H2.

Click to expand...

And what would that "purpose" be? Likely to distract the world from the fact that BEVs are the endgame in transportation. Or perhaps to ensure that people are NOT able to generate their own transportation fuel at home, instead being forced to purchase it from centralized suppliers. <snip>

Reg, I'm not going through this whole argument cycle again. Feel free to repeat every point we've discussed numerous times, but you're on your own. Anyone who wants to see my replies to same can scroll up through the thread and find the ones that apply.

ydnas7 · May 1, 2017

https://www.arb.ca.gov/lists/com-attach/26-vwzevinvestplan-ws-VDVXI1MwUl4HbVI3.pdf

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai

So optimistically they are assuming a 5 year delay, on getting opm.

If only Hydrogen wasn't such a zero sum proposition.
They way that letter was CC'd indicates a level of desperation, its now or never, and Toyota, Honda, Hyundai sense that if they lose this round, its RIP for Hydrogen in California.

GRA · May 1, 2017

ydnas7 said:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/lists/com-attach/26-vwzevinvestplan-ws-VDVXI1MwUl4HbVI3.pdf

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai

So optimistically they are assuming a 5 year delay, on getting opm.

If only Hydrogen wasn't such a zero sum proposition.
They way that letter was CC'd indicates a level of desperation, its now or never, and Toyota, Honda, Hyundai sense that if they lose this round, its RIP for Hydrogen in California.

I'm curious as to who you think they should CC it to, if not the membership of the Air Resources Board who will make the decision, the Governor and his designated point person?

ydnas7 · May 1, 2017

GRA said:
ydnas7 said:

https://www.arb.ca.gov/lists/com-attach/26-vwzevinvestplan-ws-VDVXI1MwUl4HbVI3.pdf

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai

So optimistically they are assuming a 5 year delay, on getting opm.

If only Hydrogen wasn't such a zero sum proposition.
They way that letter was CC'd indicates a level of desperation, its now or never, and Toyota, Honda, Hyundai sense that if they lose this round, its RIP for Hydrogen in California.

Click to expand...

I'm curious as to who you think they should CC it to, if not the membership of the Air Resources Board who will make the decision, the Governor and his designated point person?

Ford submission did not CC everybody individually
Nissan and Tesla did not make a submission

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