Cart Before The Horse??

Just a philosophical question?

Do you think that selling a car with 200+ mile range is really worth it? By that, I mean, does it provide much more utility than a car with a 100 mile range, given that there is still insufficient charging infrastructure in 90% of the US?

I recently purchased a 2014 Nissan Leaf S. I wanted to wait and get a 2018 when it came out because I "believed" I needed the extra range. My old car didn't comply with my plan, so I took the plunge. I would estimate that my current leaf provides 90% of the utility of an ICE car (For me and my family anyway). An EV with more range might push that a couple percent, but it's still not a viable means of interstate transportation since you would have to stop every 2.5-3 hours to charge it for 90 minutes or more.

Thoughts?

Don't sell yourself short with your title of "cart before the horse". I have a 15 S, and feel the same way you do.... That My 80-100 Mile car is all I need in an electric car. I have another gas car for when I need to go more than my daily commute. That second car does not have to be shinny and new because you will not use it often. I do not believe in paying for and carrying around more battery than I need... I think of that as like a camper bringing a month's worth of food - Just in case I need it.....

PS - Let those that want a 200 mile car PAY for the extra expensive batteries they will have to buy. Regardless from what other people say, I cannot imagine that for 2018, you will be able to get a 60KWH battery in a Leaf..... FOR THE SAME PRICE AS THE CURRENT LEAF. It makes no financial sense for Nissan to sell their cars that cheaply. Also, I feel that we will never see a 60KWH TESLA for $35K, because it makes no financial sense.

I had an 81 Comutacar EV, its range covered 5 days a week of travel for many years, it started with a 50 mile range and near the end was down to 8 miles,

I would need it to cover a reliable winter range of 105 miles to handle 90% + of trips, 238 miles just gives cushion and might move the needle to 95% of trips but like many I loath rentals so would still have a spare gas or hybrid car.

Is it worth it? To whom? The main reason EV's account for so little new vehicle sales on the market and why they depreciate so rapidly is their range. People want range. To car manufacturers it's worth it to make the car have more even if people don't really need it. This is like asking if cars need more power. Cars have way more power than they did +50 years ago. Yet my all original 46hp at-the-wheels 1972 VW Beetle can do 81mph, plenty fast to go down any highway in the USA. Yet today, even if you double that power it still won't be enough according to your average driver. So for car manufacturers it's worth it to make bigger more powerful engines in ICEV's and bigger longer range batteries in BEV's. The customer is always right even if he's wrong!

Technically an EV with 50 miles range is more than enough for 100% of a person's transportation needs. Even zero vehicular miles would meet most peoples' "needs." Doing some math, it costs at least $5,000 per year average to own a very economical vehicle. That's close to $500 per month. At $20 per hour that's 25 hours of work per month. The guy down at McDonald's has to work 50 hours per month just to own a car. It takes me about 5 minutes in bicycle to get to work. That's 10 minutes per day or about an hour per week. Say I make $20 per hour. I could work 25 hours less and ride my bicycle 4 hours more. I'd have 21 more hours per month to do whatever I want! But no, I had to chose the car and work more so that I could "save time" getting places. Of course many people live farther away from their jobs than I do, but obviously people could try to live closer to their jobs.

But while we're buying cars, is it worth it to buy an EV? What about an EV with +200 more range? If you took a 24kWh Leaf even with a degradated range of close to 50 miles and drove it from San Francisco, CA to New York City by pulling over and using 120V outlets that you ask to borrow from any home or building along the way or your backup suitcase generator for when someone refuses... it would still only take you less than 2 months to get there! I live in Colorado, about halfway in between California and New York. I work for a school so I could get 3 months summer vacation if I so desired. If I wanted to spend a month in either place I could take a month to get there in my Leaf, spend a month there, and then take a month to get back. Every summer I could technically do up to a 4,500 mile road trip in my Leaf using solely 120V for charging, and still get back in time for work.

But of course I, like everyone else, have grown accustomed to driving an ICEV. I've driven from here to New York in less than 3 days, and from here to California in less than 2. I've even driven clear through Mexico to Puerto Vallarta and have even been contemplating on driving to Belize or Alaska. If I want to do all that in a BEV I need either more charging infrastructure or more range or some of each. Or more vacation time, which isn't going to happen.

But in the end, each person is going to have his or her own viewpoint. And the majority are going to want more EV range for them to accept an EV. For some, even the idea of having to pull over and charge for half an hour at a DCQC station just to make a 120 mile drive seems ridiculous and too inconvenient. But to be sincere, when I did my 380 mile trip which involved having to charge from 120V twice and L2 at the other stops it did seem to take a bit longer than I really wanted it to. And creeping up the last mountain passes with the heater off in a bold attempt to make it home before work on Monday didn't really set well with my wife.

But to put things in retrospect there are other options. In a two car family with one long range car, be that ICE or electricity propelled or both, it makes sense to have one of them as a cheaper low range EV. Or you could even own just one of such a car and then rent for your out-of-town trips. (Although I have my doubts Hertz will let me drive a rental clear to Belize and back.) Doing some quick math here, in 15 years I'll have spent an average of around $200 or less per month total (payments, interest, insurance, electricity, tires, brake fluid, etc.) for owning my Leaf. The last vehicle I had before the Leaf used that much per month in just fuel costs. With the $300-$400 per month that I save by owning a Leaf, living in a cool climate, and planning on owning this car for the next 15 years I could easily rent a car for several days out of the month and still come out ahead than if I bought a much more expensive long range EV.

IssacZachary said:

People want range. To car manufacturers it's worth it to make the car have more even if people don't really need it. This is like asking if cars need more power. Cars have way more power than they did +50 years ago. Yet my all original 46hp at-the-wheels 1972 VW Beetle can do 81mph, plenty fast to go down any highway in the USA. Yet today, even if you double that power it still won't be enough according to your average driver. So for car manufacturers it's worth it to make bigger more powerful engines in ICEV's and bigger longer range batteries in BEV's. The customer is always right even if he's wrong!

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I agree, but I wonder if a 200 mile range is really enough to reduce the public's range anxiety if there's still not an adequate charging infrastructure. Those 2 or 3 trips a year that are over 300 miles might keep the average person from jumping into the EV market if they know that stopping to charge will add hours to their trip. This is ridiculous, as they can rent a car for those brief periods and come out ahead. But, we're talking about the masses, not savvy, thoughful people who are willing to accept a small inconvenience like this.

What I'm getting at is that instead of marketing a 60kWhr battery EV, it would make more sense to invest/lobby for an infrastructure of fast chargers that can charge a 60 kWhr battery in 15-30 minutes.

webb14leafs said:

IssacZachary said:

People want range. To car manufacturers it's worth it to make the car have more even if people don't really need it. This is like asking if cars need more power. Cars have way more power than they did +50 years ago. Yet my all original 46hp at-the-wheels 1972 VW Beetle can do 81mph, plenty fast to go down any highway in the USA. Yet today, even if you double that power it still won't be enough according to your average driver. So for car manufacturers it's worth it to make bigger more powerful engines in ICEV's and bigger longer range batteries in BEV's. The customer is always right even if he's wrong!

Click to expand...

I agree, but I wonder if a 200 mile range is really enough to reduce the public's range anxiety if there's still not an adequate charging infrastructure. Those 2 or 3 trips a year that are over 300 miles might keep the average person from jumping into the EV market if they know that stopping to charge will add hours to their trip. This is ridiculous, as they can rent a car for those brief periods and come out ahead. But, we're talking about the masses, not savvy, thoughful people who are willing to accept a small inconvenience like this.

What I'm getting at is that instead of marketing a 60kWhr battery EV, it would make more sense to invest/lobby for an infrastructure of fast chargers that can charge a 60 kWhr battery in 15-30 minutes.

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Ah! Got it!

More charging vs. longer range. If there were a CHAdeMO the same distance as every gasoline station I'd be set to go anywhere in not much more time than an ICEV! But there are now only 3 Leaf owners and one Leasee (who is soon going to trade in for a Bolt) in the county where I live and mine is the only one with CHAdeMO. A CHAdeMO station about 50 miles to the east, another about 50 miles to the west, and one 50 miles south and another 50 miles north of here would be great. But nobody is ever going to do that just for little ol' me.

IssacZachary said:

Ah! Got it!

More charging vs. longer range. If there were a CHAdeMO the same distance as every gasoline station I'd be set to go anywhere in not much more time than an ICEV! But there are now only 3 Leaf owners and one Leasee (who is soon going to trade in for a Bolt) in the county where I live and mine is the only one with CHAdeMO. A CHAdeMO station about 50 miles to the east, another about 50 miles to the west, and one 50 miles south and another 50 miles north of here would be great. But nobody is ever going to do that just for little ol' me.

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If you build it they will come!!!

I think the question of insufficient charging infrastructure kinda depends on the car you buy. There are three DCFC charging standards and which one your car uses directly impacts your experience. Personally, my previous car was a VW TDI, so I am used to having to hunt for a gas station to fill up - a lot of stations don't have Diesel. Consequently, the transition to electric wasn't as hard for me. The same general thing is true in DCFCs - if you have a supercharger equipped Tesla then you can charge at any of the Tesla DCFCs, and with the CHAdeMO adaptor you could also charge at any of those as well; on the other hand, if you have a Bolt then you are limited to only charging at the CCS DCFCs. With the overall similarity between the Tesla Supercharger and the CHAdeMO standards, it is possible that once Tesla gets all the bugs worked out of their Supercharger pay per use system they will release an adapter that will let you charge CHAdeMO cars from it. That would give them a larger customer base and us access to their strategically places DCFCs. Based on the last couple of trips I have taken in my ICE, they all were possible in my '13 Leaf given the existing CHAdeMO infrastructure - granted it would have taken a lot longer, but I could have done it. For me a 200+ mile EV makes sense, not just as a daily driver, but as a replacement for my ICE; and that is why I pre-ordered a Tesla Model 3. The Supercharger network has good coverage of interstates - not always the ones I want to use, but ones that will end up going where I want to go - and the CHAdeMO chargers have good coverage of city centers. The expanded charger network would allow me to travel anywhere I have traveled in my ICE for the last 5 years (as far back as I could find my notes) and the 200+ mile range would allow me to do it faster than my 90 mile EV. So to answer you question, the charging infrastructure is already there (barely), the range is more about not having to stop at every single charger on the way.

just my 2cents
i still feel anxious about the range, although so far into 9months of ownership, only less the 4 times i really have to drive my prius. I know it is unreasonable worry, but i am only human....
yes, 100miles 2016 sv work for me >99% of the time. yes, i need to aware of my range most of the time. yes, i "feel" safer if the leaf have longer range. and no, too big a battery does not make sense. its is like "i feel safer if i have 10% more money in my bank", but do i really need that 10%, no. :-D.
i would suggest that, if one owns a second "long range car", a ev range with double one's daily range between charging is good enough, a well balance between usability, lower battery wearing, and energy efficiency (and mony efficiency ;-D).
ev is different machine. a different mentality is needed. i like someone put it this way: a airplane pilot pay attentions to the instruments and plans ahead, so does a car driver. i heard that some friend did get stuck because his car ran out of gas, go figure....

One point that I'm trying to make is that a 60 kWhr EV COULD satisfy 100% of everyone's automotive needs if there was sufficient charging infrastructure. i.e. >150kW chargers located along major freeways, interstates, and turnpikes. Without this, there's really no difference between 100 mile range, and 200 mile range. Sure, for some people it might add a lot of convenience, but for most it's not a big change.

webb14leafs said:

If you build it they will come!!!

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I see this in several ways.

1. Ok, so one generous and rich fellow could go putting in charity DCQC stations all over. Last I checked my bank account didn't agree that that fellow were I.
2. If you get EV owners to throw in their share... But there would be some growing pains with that unless you do it like Tesla and fit that into the car price. But that still would make problems as EV's would still start out as more expensive in the beginning.
3. A rich fellow could invest in some DCQC stations in exchange for charging for the electricity or attracting customers to a business. But how long until you pay off a CHAdeMO station using money from paying EV customers?

Maybe a guy could start out small and slowly grow big. I could offer to install for free some level 2 charging stations at business in certain locations and then offer to pay the electric bill in turn for charging for the electricity and keeping the extra money. With the extra I could slowly save up to install more level 2 stations and eventually DCQC stations. The problem is that we need those stations now. If I get a loan to build them there's no guarantee that I'll be able to make enough to pay the loan off. But if I buy a Bolt (which I personally wouldn't do) then I can pay off the loan knowing what I'm getting into.

webb14leafs said:

Just a philosophical question?

Do you think that selling a car with 200+ mile range is really worth it? By that, I mean, does it provide much more utility than a car with a 100 mile range, given that there is still insufficient charging infrastructure in 90% of the US?

I recently purchased a 2014 Nissan Leaf S. I wanted to wait and get a 2018 when it came out because I "believed" I needed the extra range. My old car didn't comply with my plan, so I took the plunge. I would estimate that my current leaf provides 90% of the utility of an ICE car (For me and my family anyway). An EV with more range might push that a couple percent, but it's still not a viable means of interstate transportation since you would have to stop every 2.5-3 hours to charge it for 90 minutes or more.

Thoughts?

Click to expand...

I go back and forth about it... my 2014 gives me enough range now for my normal daily driving, but a 200+ mile car would allow me to not need to rent a car for the occasional long-distance trip.

I have a friend who used to say EVs needed to do at least 300, or even 500 miles on a charge before he'd ever consider one. Now he's driving a 2011 LEAF with degraded battery, worth about 50 miles range, and raves about it to anyone who will listen. It is the primary car with a ICE as a second car for longer trips.

My 2016 is good for 100 miles, sometimes more. Most days I use about 20% of the pack, if that. Occasionally I push the range on a 80-90 mile drive and don' t need to charge midway. Beyond that I make use of CHAdeMO around the area, or sometimes destination L2 charging if available and I don't need to quick charge.

It's on the 80-90 mile trips that I wouldn't mind a 150-mile range or better. It would make it so I don't have care so much when driving between major cities in my area. That's probably it in a nutshell: can you comfortably drive to the next major city and back without worrying you'll have sufficient charge? That will depend on your regional situation and how spread out things are.

Another concern I've run into with the local CHAdeMO infrastructure is broken / offline units. This is especially troublesome as there is typically only one charger per location, so if it's offline or vandalized... you're on your own for plan B.

As to The Great American Road Trip... hard to beat an efficient ICEV for that. Sometimes you can get amazing deals on full size rentals with unlimited mileage, and dollars to donuts that makes a lot of sense.

I'd love to see the rental companies start offering more of a membership structure where you can quickly book online (perhaps using an app), drop your EV off, swipe your card at the gate, and pick up your rental for the day/weekend/week with no paperwork or pressure.

gshepherd said:

As to The Great American Road Trip... hard to beat an efficient ICEV for that. Sometimes you can get amazing deals on full size rentals with unlimited mileage, and dollars to donuts that makes a lot of sense.

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No doubt!!

I'm renting a car for a road trip that will cover about 1500 miles round trip. Cost is $166 for the week, and will include around $140 in fuel costs (if that). That comes to right around $0.20 per mile. Same calc for the depreciation of even just a reasonable used car + gas would exceed that.

The real problem is not what size the battery needs to be but rather how long will the battery last! If you could guarantee the the battery capacity for the life of the car, then you could just buy the size that suits your needs. But the reality of it is that the Nissan battery degrades with age and a 30 KWH mi battery is going to be good for maybe 40-50 miles after 5-6 years. You need to buy a 60 KWH battery if you want a 100 mi range in 5-6 years. ICE vehicles don't have this problem, their gas tanks never get smaller and gas milage declines only slightly as they age. Tesla seems to do much better with their batteries. Tesla may have a better technology or battery cooling solution but Nissan batteries have a lousy track record and capacity loss is a fact of life. I can live with a 30 KWH battery but not a 20 KWH. As far as the added weight of a larger battery goes, it wouldn't be much different than adding a couple of passengers.

Sure, I'd like a bigger battery. If nothing else, It would mean having to charge less often. The increased range would be more of a security blanket than anything else. But there are days that I do drive more than 100 miles and not having to plan where to charge would simplify things. Plus, I'm on PV at home so charging at the house is more environmentally friendly and cheaper too. I keep a car for 8-10 years on average and put a lot of miles on it (20K+/yr) so I'm not the average Joe. I was promised a battery that would last the life of the car ( Nissan promised typically 80% capacity at 8 years or 100,000 mi) but what I got is considerably less.

A 200 mile range is more than adequate. In the 70's cars had 20 gal gas tanks but only got 10-11 mi/gal. Most cars still have 20 gal gas tanks but now get 25-30 mi/gal. Most people don't drive for than 2-3 hours at a time anyway. If you could charge the battery in 10-15 min and be on your way, that would be a game changer. 30 minutes isn't bad but if you could drop the charging time to about what it takes to get gas and a snack while on the interstate that would be great. Superchargers ought to be less than 50 miles apart on the interstate and there should be to enough stalls to accommodate the expected traffic without a wait. The faster you can charge, the fewer stalls you would need. Chargers in the city would be more problematic since most people will charge at home and there's a lot less need for public charging. It won't be like gas stations on every block. Major urban centers like malls, public buildings, and garages could have chargers as well as motels and hotels.

The real question is can anyone other than Tesla build a decent battery that will last the life of the car?

webb14leafs said:

gshepherd said:

As to The Great American Road Trip... hard to beat an efficient ICEV for that. Sometimes you can get amazing deals on full size rentals with unlimited mileage, and dollars to donuts that makes a lot of sense.

Click to expand...

No doubt!!

I'm renting a car for a road trip that will cover about 1500 miles round trip. Cost is $166 for the week, and will include around $140 in fuel costs (if that). That comes to right around $0.20 per mile. Same calc for the depreciation of even just a reasonable used car + gas would exceed that.

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I rented once so far since I got my Leaf in November. Then the town's only rental company decided to only open 5 days a week, Tuesday through Saturday, and only to noon. I wanted to go to Ouray yesterday. But I would have had to pick up the rental on Saturday and have dropped it off on Tuesday just for using it for 12 hours or less. I'd drive to Ouray in the Leaf but last I checked there's no charging station of any kind anywhere near there except a couple 120V campgrounds.

VW is coming out with a higher range eGolf. My current car fills my needs. If I had the longer range car it would simply mean I charged more infrequently. Retired, I really do not need more range. My car was leased 9/20/16 and it has less than 4000 miles. The longest I go to is the TRW swap meet at 39 miles one way. I usually have a quarter charge when I get home.

A longer range car means nothing to me. The VW has CCS rapid charging and most new EVSE's are dual mode but L2 in my garage is currently enough for me. If I had to go some where longer range like San Diego than I would exercise the CCS rapid charge.

My situation is similar, but I do often travel 70 miles in Winter, and occasionally 100 miles in Summer - or I would, anyway, if I had the available range. I think a lot of people balk at a car that fits 90% of their driving needs nicely, but can't do the other 10%.

What if everyone on this forum site that's contemplating on trading in their less-than-$10,000-worth Nissan Leaf for a $40,000 +200 mile EV just donated the $30,000 dollars to fund DCQC stations?
:mrgreen:

IssacZachary said:

What if everyone on this forum site that's contemplating on trading in their less-than-$10,000-worth Nissan Leaf for a $40,000 +200 mile EV just donated the $30,000 dollars to fund DCQC stations?
:mrgreen:

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If I did that, I would still have an ugly, mediocre-to-drive, 50-mile EV without a DCQC port.

For me, my Leaf covers maybe 90% of my trips, but less than 50% of my miles. I have a short commute, and live in a county that is roughly a square, 30 miles on edge. The Leaf handles my day-to-day very well. But I leave town almost every other weekend, and travel 250-300 miles each way. A 200 mile range, with a single QC pitstop is all I need. Adding 30 minutes of charging to a trip that already takes 4-5 hours is hardly an inconvenience - it takes that long to get the kids out of the car, use the rest room, and get back in and buckled up. Currently I just take the PHEV, but I'd really like to kick the gas habit completely.

And I agree that both cars don't need to handle these trips. So a 200-mile BEV would be a perfect complement to my 50-mile BEV. I think there is room in my driveway (and budget) for one of each. If Nissan were to offer 30kWh and 60kWh batteries in a nicer looking car that was actually fun to drive, then I could imagine having two Leafs.