China is well advanced in developing and deploying supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal plants, as well as moving quickly to design and deploy technologies for integrated (coal) gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants. Nevertheless it consumed about 4.3 billion tonnes of coal in 2013, more than half the world total, and coal peaked at more than 70% of China’s primary energy then, dropping to 64% in 2015 as fossil fuel generation declined. By 2020 it is expected to use some 3.5 billion tonnes of coal annually, and for coal to comprise only 55% of primary energy consumption. However, after authority for approving new coal-fired plants was given to provincial governments late in 2014, in 2015 state-owned companies received preliminary or full approval to build 165 GWe of new coal-fired capacity, some of which would be offset by retirement of older plants. But total coal consumption dropped by 3.7% in that year, and in October 2016 coal-fired plants had an average load factor of only 46%. In March 2016, the NEA ordered 13 provinces to suspend approvals of new projects until 2017, and another 15 to delay construction of new projects that had already been approved. Taken together, this required about 110 GWe of suspensions.
Wind and solar generating capacity has been expanding rapidly, much of it with private investment encouraged by government policies, such as CNY 0.54 per kWh feed-in tariff (FIT). In 2016, 17.3 GWe of new wind capacity and 34.8 GWe of solar PV was installed, but the capacity factors decreased. There is a high level of curtailment on wind generation, because of inadequate grid connections. In 2016 some 50 TWh of potential wind output – about 20% on average and up to 50% in some provinces – was curtailed, according to the National Energy Administration, and several provinces* have been ordered to stop approving wind projects until they improve transmission infrastructure. In 2016 the curtailment was mainly in Gansu (43% of production), Xinjiang (38%), Jilin (30%), Inner Mongolia (21%), and Heilongjiang (19%).
There is a similar situation for grid-connected solar, with 7 TWh being curtailed – about 20% in the main five provinces, and the capacity factor is about 17%. In 2016 NDRC reduced wind FITs by 5% to 13% and solar utility FITs by 24% to 31%. The 13th Five-Year Plan has about 16 GWe/yr of wind addition, and aims to reduce grid curtailment from wind to 5%. However, having made huge investments, many wind and solar power producers have been affected by grid curtailment rates in the 30% range for the past few years.