LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

o00scorpion00o said:

you can't fit an adult in the rear of the Leaf with 2 Child seats for instance and the boot is crap.

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I disagree on both accounts. I have personally ridden in the back of a Leaf between my two children in their carseats. I'm not huge, but I'm not tiny. I fit just fine. I wouldn't want to go far, but then again the Leaf can't go very far to begin with. I would be fine for an hour or so riding back there.

And the boot (or the trunk, here in America), is huge for this class of car. It easily swallows tons of stuff. I regularly fill it with trips to the bulk discount stores. I have taken it camping. I've had a lot of stuff in that trunk. Sure, it's vertical which requires some practice to be able to pack well. But once you figure it out, it works just fine. I've fit things in the Leaf that my mother couldn't figure out how to fit in her CR-V, which is nominally a bigger car.

If the interior of the 2018 Leaf is the same as the current Leaf, I would be content. Heck, even if it's a little smaller, say shorter to get better aero, that's just fine with me.

@OrientExpress

Toyota sold over 355,000 Camry's in the USA in 2016. Nissan sold 14,000 Leafs in the USA in 2016 - 4% of Camry sales. What other EV model does Nissan sell into the US market? Um, none. Still waiting on the arrival of the e-NV200...

A little more than half of US EVs in 2016 were sold in California. No other states are even close.

So, I don't know how anyone can reasonably argue that any car manufacturer, including Nissan, is doing a good job of informing and attracting potential US buyers given these pathetic numbers:



If you exclude the Leaf, Tesla Model S, and Model X from the BEV sales there were only 25,000 BEVs sold by all other manufacturers combined in 2016. Remove the BMW i3, Fiat 500e, VW e-Golf, and Chevy Spark sales then that number drops to less than 10,000. So, basically only Tesla, Nissan, BMW, Fiat, VW, and Chevy have made any sort of effort.

Exhibit A RE lousy marketing: what was with the "Kick Gas" campaign that Nissan launched? Talk about confused messaging. It's like going up to a kid and saying, "I hear you like candy, so here's some free candy. By the way, we sell really healthy granola - want some?". Yup, that's gonna work...

GetOffYourGas said:

...Heck, even if it's a little smaller, say shorter to get better aero, that's just fine with me.

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A longer car generally has better aerodynamics than a shorter car, other things, such as frontal area, being equal.

Like you, I was quite pleased with the interior space of the current LEAF. No complaints from me.

OrientExpress said:

...As far as Tesla goes, the cracks in their strategy are starting to show, as they missed their manufacturing startup goal yesterday for start of Model 3 production.

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First production Model 3

Your Nissan colored glasses seem to be distorting your vision. For some of us — hoping that EVs become successful and displace ICEVs — the more EV models on the market, the better. I'm hoping that LEAF 2 is a great success. As well as the Model 3, Bolt, and all the rest.

OrientExpress said:

...As far as Tesla goes, the cracks in their strategy are starting to show, as they missed their manufacturing startup goal yesterday for start of Model 3 production.

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First production Model 3

Rare is the entity that did not stumble a bit negotiating their first steps. But its not the journey we are judged on but the destination. Is this right? As like most, not completely but it does hold considerable more validity than first day evaluations.

dgpcolorado said:

GetOffYourGas said:

...Heck, even if it's a little smaller, say shorter to get better aero, that's just fine with me.

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A longer car generally has better aerodynamics than a shorter car, other things, such as frontal area, being equal.

Like you, I was quite pleased with the interior space of the current LEAF. No complaints from me.

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To be clear, when I said "shorter", I meant height and not length. Ideally, shorter (height) and longer (length) would result in the same interior volume with much better aero.

dgpcolorado said:

For some of us — hoping that EVs become successful and displace ICEVs — the more EV models on the market, the better. I'm hoping that LEAF 2 is a great success. As well as the Model 3, Bolt, and all the rest.

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Yes, welcome to the common goal. The move to electrified motive transportation is inevitable, and those that do not jump on the bandwagon, are doomed to irrelevance.

The question today is if Tesla will be a long-term leader in that movement or just a historical anecdote like Bricklin or Tucker.

If? LOL. Is. And soon to be sales leader, leaving all the foot dragging ICE OEMs in the dust. The timing didn't work for my current lease cycle, so I'll have to lease one more time from a dealership, then Tesla.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

If? LOL. Is. And soon to be sales leader, leaving all the foot dragging ICE OEMs in the dust. The timing didn't work for my current lease cycle, so I'll have to lease one more time from a dealership, then Tesla.

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And just like every other infatuation, they burn bright but have a short life on borrowed money. The next 18 months will be telling for Tesla. At the end of the day, the smart money is on the veteran players. It's not a question of if there is a transformation of personal transportation from petroleum powered vehicles to electrification, that has already been decided. The real question is how will be how the industry and infrastructure capitalize on this trend.

Despite Tesla's noble intentions (and they have raised awareness of EVs with the masses to their credit), it's questionable if they have what it takes to be a consistent sausage maker that can churn out a quality value product day after day.

Their current products are mediocre in just about every metric from quality, manufacturing, to value. Their biggest strength is their bravado and being able to nurture a following that desperately wants to believe and is happy not to look behind the curtain.

What they have done is awakened a market that is now ripe for the taking by the established players. Every one of the major players worldwide will have a product in the next 3 years whose goal is to be a superior BEV by every measurement. As a Tesla stockholder, it will be great if the Tesla story then will be about their great technology and sales advances, rather than their spectacular crash and burn.

Let's have this conversation again in 2020 - 2021 and see how things turn out.

They certainly take more risk, starting up, building out, and all without an ICE fallback. Most folks don't know Leaf or Bolt, but they all Tesla. If only the old line showed that daring.

GetOffYourGas said:

...shorter (height) and longer (length) would result in the same interior volume with much better aero.

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And to me the camo images of the Gen 2, seem to show just that.

You can quantify the benefits in higher efficiency and larger interior volume in the Ioniq, a BEV ~ four inches lower than a LEAF, ~six inches lower than a Bolt (and ~two inches wider than either) in the comparison here:

http://plugincars.com/hyundai-ioniq

edatoakrun said:

And to me the camo images of the Gen 2, seem to show just that.

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I hope you are right. I am unable to tell by looking at photos of a camo'd car. We have heard implications from Nissan that the Gen 2 will be more efficient overall. Aero is likely a larger source of loss than powertrain losses. And easier to improve to boot.

I see little reason to suppose lower height. I think the nose and tail have been reshaped to improve the CD, and it probably won't offer 16" wheels, except maybe on the S.

The tail is more important than the nose, and from what I can tell it is probably improved in the Gen 2. That much I can see in the camo images. It's probably more than just a style change.

The story below reports several models of entry-level BEVS from R/N/M will be on the market within a year or so in China.

No chance we'll be getting The E-Kwid in the USA, but once we know what battery pack (or pack options) are available in the LEAF Gen two,
we may begin speculating on Nissan's new USA BEV model placed below the LEAF in price.

Nissan prepping entry-priced electric vehicle for China
Made locally on shared platform, car will be half the price of the Leaf

Nissan Motor is developing a low-priced electric vehicle for China that could be zipping around cities like Beijing and Shanghai as early as fiscal 2018...

By using a common platform and outsourcing production to a local carmaker, Nissan aims to keep the price down to around 1.5 million yen ($13,200), which is half the cost of the all-electric Nissan Leaf hatchback.

Nissan is preparing a full model change for the Leaf that will give its flagship electronic vehicle enough range to drive between cities in China on a full charge. That will position the Leaf as a high-end EV competitor to gasoline-engine cars, but it will open a niche for a lower-priced EV designed for urban drivers making short trips, Saikawa explained.

To keep development costs down, the new car will be made on a platform shared with Nissan's alliance members Renault and Mitsubishi Motors. French automaker Renault intends to use the same platform to build an electric version of its Kwid crossover for China in 2019. To curb production costs, the vehicle will be made in China by an affiliate of Dongfeng Motor Group, Nissan's partner in a carmaking joint venture...

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http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Consumers/Nissan-prepping-entry-priced-electric-vehicle-for-China?n_cid=NARAN012

edatoakrun said:

(page 102)

...The LEAF 1 was an outstanding initial effort, as evidenced by how well the ~300k gen 1 LEAFs are still performing, and its continuing high worldwide sales rate to date.

It's unexpectedly long production life has given Nissan the luxury of time to make major improvements, and I expect LEAF 2 will probably be a significant advance from our BEVs.

Just how much more efficient, lighter, and less expensive than the LEAF 1, and how many new features it will have, will be announced in the next few months.

I'm impatiently driving my 2011 (over 6 years and over 52k miles on the O.E. battery pack, and covered 95.7 single-charge miles the day before yesterday, from "100%" to the VLBW.) and waiting for the LEAF 2 news before I decide what my next BEV will be.

Very interesting story below on how Nissan/Renault's culture of delegating authority, working cooperatively with partners and suppliers,
and benefiting from long experience in building cars (The Anti-Tesla approach) has revolutionized the entry-level ICEV.

We might be reading a similar story about the development of the gen 2 (or maybe the gen 3) LEAF/Zoe in the future...

True Disruptors Of The Auto Industry: 118-Year-Old Renault, A 71-Year-Old Man And A $4,100 Car

There has been a lot of talk about disrupting the auto industry. If you want to see disruption in full-scale beauty, you must go to Chennai, India. The city formerly known as Madras has become a veritable hotbed of automotive disruption, and not just because the mercury constantly flirts with the 100 degree mark. Some 30 dusty, and very nerve-rattling miles south of the airport is the Oragadam Industrial Corridor, and right in the middle of it is Renault and Nissan’s joint production site, which is trying to crank out the $4,100 Renault Kwid as quickly as it is snapped up, usually by first-time buyers, who finally can afford a real car.

Some 40 years ago, we finally could afford a real computer, 64K and all -- now a real car can be bought at a similar price.

For those who think the outrageous price is not low enough, the factory has just started to produce a $3,700 derivative, the Datsun Redi-GO. Both are real cars, on a brand-new platform, and they already disrupted the marketing plans of Maruti-Suzuki, which until now has dominated the rapidly growing Indian car market, but probably not for a lot longer. (The secret of how Renault-Nissan has achieved the cars’ ultra-low price is revealed here. But does Renault-Nissan make money with the cars? The answer is here.)...

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/05/22/true-disruptors-of-the-auto-industry-a-118-year-old-carmaker-a-71-year-old-man-a-4100-car/#6d1e8b1d69b0

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GetOffYourGas said:

We have heard implications from Nissan that the Gen 2 will be more efficient overall. Aero is likely a larger source of loss than powertrain losses. And easier to improve to boot.

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Totally! The powertrain losses are minimal (less than 3-5%) and result from;
1. The motor controller's power switching semiconductors,
2. The motor windings' resistances, and
3. The reduction gearbox (~ 8:1) & wheel bearings.

Note: The powertrain losses as described above are exclusive of the rolling resistance losses (weight & tires).

As implied, the key is the reduction of the coefficient of drag.

GetOffYourGas said:

The tail is more important than the nose, and from what I can tell it is probably improved in the Gen 2. That much I can see in the camo images. It's probably more than just a style change.

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I agree, Brian - the back looks better than the current Leaf, on the roof line in particular, and to a lesser extent on the sides. If the underside rises up more than the current car, then that would also help. The changes at the front could possibly help with the flow around the front wheels. Oh, and the wheels and the wheel opening look to be improved for lower drag, as well.

I think that they will improve the drivetrain, too. The current Leaf compared to the Bolt EV shows (largely) the difference in their drivetrains. The Bolt EV Cd is (apparently) 0.308 vs the approximate 0.32 (actual) of the Leaf, is a small part of it. Leaf is 124MPGe City vs the Bolt EV at 128MPGe.

NeilBlanchard said:

I think that they will improve the drivetrain, too.

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And how? Your insight will be appreciated.

Remember, both the Bolt and the present Leaf use a PM (permanent magnet) motor design verses Tesla
with an induction motor design (true AC motor design) which is less efficient but more torque.



Not much there to enhance drivetrain efficiency!

Better BMS, and inverter could be part of it. And there are way to improve the motor efficiency, too, with better "shape" to the magnetic fields.

Look for the heat - and design things to reduce it. Cool is efficiency, and efficiency is cool.

I don't think there is much more room for efficiency gains in the motor itself. Electric motors have been around for over a century and the behavior of electricity is much more predictable than a combustion event.

On the Battery management and inverter side I don't think we'll see much more either.

I am surprised however that Nissan didn't use a planetary gearset for the gear reduction, as planetary gearsets have the least parasitic losses.

Though if they really wanted to chase efficiency they'd go back to drum brakes...