TSLA corporate outlook

Of course it's hard to say if the Amazon scenario could repeat, but there are quite a few parallels. Long term great story that gets way overvalued in the short run. Like the dot com burst, Tesla could be set back by economic events that triggers a collapse as momentum runs the other way. If such a scenario were to occur and they survived it a couple decades of organic growth could follow.

Here's something I've never understood about the world of business and finance:

Apple can build an iPhone for $14 and potentially sell it to a market of 2B people for $800. 98% profit margin is wonderful, making $786 on each unit sold, doesn't get much better than that.

Now lets say Tesla can only make a 10% margin on each Model 3. Selling a car for $35k that cost $31.5k to build. Wharton guys would say that's a sucky low margin business, not where you want to be.

98% sure sounds better than 10%... but the profit on each Model 3 unit is nearly five times that of the iPhone! Seems like I'd rather be selling Model 3s. Aside from the relative ease of producing $14 iPhones in volume what am I missing?

LTLFTcomposite said:

Here's something I've never understood about the world of business and finance:

Apple can build an iPhone for $14 and potentially sell it to a market of 2B people for $800. 98% profit margin is wonderful, making $786 on each unit sold, doesn't get much better than that.

Click to expand...

Uhh, you are WAY off on those amounts. $14 might be only enough to cover assembly and testing costs but nothing else. Components aren’t free, nor are the R&D costs nor tooling costs.

Every time a new iPhone comes out, various groups create estimates as to how much it costs Apple to produce. Example: https://9to5mac.com/2016/09/20/649-iphone-7-estimated-to-cost-apple-220-heres-the-component-breakdown/. (Of course, Apple has always said the estimates floating around the press are wrong. I don’t doubt they could be off by at least 5 to 15% but IMHO, they should be within 20-50%.)
From the above

Apple typically makes ~38% gross margins as a business, of which the iPhone makes up the majority of its sales. Manufacturing cost for the iPhone 7 is estimated at $220.80 by IHS but note that this is not the total cost of the product from Apple’s perspective. It also must incorporate packing, shipment, taxes and marketing costs. There is also the matter of software development, employee salaries, and further R&D financing to consider.

Although Apple is paying more than the $220 baseline, even after all of the additional costs, it is still likely raking in profits of about $250 per unit...

Click to expand...

LTLFTcomposite said:

Now lets say Tesla can only make a 10% margin on each Model 3. Selling a car for $35k that cost $31.5k to build. Wharton guys would say that's a sucky low margin business, not where you want to be.

98% sure sounds better than 10%... but the profit on each Model 3 unit is nearly five times that of the iPhone! Seems like I'd rather be selling Model 3s. Aside from the relative ease of producing $14 iPhones in volume what am I missing?

Click to expand...

From https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2017/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/ and https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/Q2FY17DataSummary.pdf, last quarter, Apple sold over 50.7 million iPhones, accounting for $33.249 billion in revenue.

Last quarter, they had $52.896 billion in revenue and net income of over $11 billion (see https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/Q2FY17ConsolidatedFinancialStatements.pdf).

From http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-17-9968, last quarter TSLA had about $2.696 billion in revenue but lost $330 million to generate it. They delivered 25K vehicles that quarter.

And to add some more stats, I don't know how often users typically get new smartphones these days but in the US previously, due to (former) 2 year contracts, lots of people wouldn't keep them for more than 2 years before selling/trading in then upgrading. That seems to have stopped with people now needing to pay full price but possibly spreading out payments over 1-2 years. In comparison, the average age of vehicle on American roads is about 11 years.

I doubt you'll find many 10 year old smartphone still being actively used. First iPhone turned 10 recently and it's a dinosaur: little storage, fixed focus camera w/no flash, no 3G (and AT&T, its launch carrier shutdown its 2G network), stuck on iPhone OS 3.1.3 at max when iOS is up to 10.3.2, thick w/a low-res small screen, etc.

From http://www.hybridcars.com/june-2017-dashboard/, for the US, an estimated (due to Tesla, BMW i3 and Fiat 500e), 8,814 BEVs were sold/leased in the US out of 1.464 million autos. For CYTD, it was 44.2K out of 8.4 million. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2017/07/us-auto-sales-brand-rankings-june-2017.html gives you how much of an idea each major automaker does in the US in a month and thru June.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2017/07/june-2017-ytd-us-vehicle-sales-rankings.html gives you an idea of volume of each model. (e.g. Ford F-Series truck sales were 77.895K for June. 429K units YTD.) The US is no longer the biggest auto market anymore (about 17 million in a year per https://autoalliance.org/economy/facts-about-auto-sales/). China is.

The largest automakers in the world (e.g. GM, VW and Toyota) each sell about 10 million vehicles/year worldwide.

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/03/21/porsche-17250-profit-per-car/ pointers to some automakers profits per car.

Tesla's July U.S. deliveries for both the Model S & X per InsideEVs are the lowest for the last three months, i.e. with July's
deliveries declining over 30% from the previous month for both vehicles. Assuming the U.S. is about 60% of WW
and the U.S. YTD number (23K), the present WW run rate of deliveries indicates a 2017 annual estimate of 70K
(2016 was 76K). Tesla's guidance for 2017 is a 110K. Using the actual estimated YTD WW deliveries of 39K (U.S. / 60%),
this will require about 70K in the next 5 months (14K/month WW - 8K/month U.S.) to achieve the 110K guidance.
The best U.S. month occurred in March, about 6K, but at the present declining sales of both the Model S & X,
this appears unlikely. Assuming that the Model E may 'bail out' Tesla, is wishful thinking. So will reality finally
affect the TSLA stock value in late 2017? But as usual, tomorrow's Q2 report will probably be another 'Don't Care'.

lorenfb said:

Tesla's July U.S. deliveries for both the Model S & X per InsideEVs are the lowest for the last three months...

Click to expand...

Loren, you do this so often it isn't funny anymore.
This is the standard pattern for sales each quarter. The first month in the quarter Tesla heavily leans towards worldwide sales. These take a month or two to deliver. By doing it this way, Tesla minimizes the number of cars that have been built, but not delivered. This results in heavy U.S. sales in the third month of the quarter as Tesla leans heavily towards U.S. production, and the cars that take 6-8 weeks to be delivered also show up on the books.

lorenfb said:

Tesla's July U.S. deliveries for both the Model S & X per InsideEVs are the lowest for the last three months, i.e. with July's
deliveries declining over 30% from the previous month for both vehicles. Assuming the U.S. is about 60% of WW
and the U.S. YTD number, the present run rate of deliveries indicates a 2017 annual estimate of 70K (2016 was 76K).
Tesla's guidance for 2017 is a 110K. Using the actual estimated YTD WW deliveries of 39K (U.S. / 60%), this will require
about 70K in the next 5 months (14K/month WW - 8K/month U.S.) to achieve the 110K guidance. The best U.S. month
occurred in March, about 6K, but at the present declining sales of both the Model S & X, this appears unlikely.
Assuming that the Model E may 'bail out' Tesla, is wishful thinking. So will reality finally affect the TSLA value in late
2017?

Click to expand...

This again. July is the first month of Tesla's quarter where they deliver the fewest cars in the US. In July of 2016 Tesla sold 2,704 cars in the US but in the previous month of June '16 they sold, brace yourself, far more cars (5,845 deliveries). So from June '16 to July '16 sales "dropped" by more than half. Of course this was compensated for at the end of the quarter (September '16) when they sold the most cars in the US, like they always do, delivering 7,550 units.

So, apples-to-apples, Tesla's end of Q2 to beginning of Q3 drop was far better than past performance, indicating stronger demand than last year, not weaker. Furthermore, year-over-year, Tesla's July US deliveries rose 14% from 2016 to 2017. So far this year, US deliveries have risen from 21,734 to 23215, an increase of 7% over 2016 to the same period in time.

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-sales-chart-December-vfinal2.png

mtndrew1 said:

lorenfb said:

Tesla's July U.S. deliveries for both the Model S & X per InsideEVs are the lowest for the last three months, i.e. with July's
deliveries declining over 30% from the previous month for both vehicles. Assuming the U.S. is about 60% of WW
and the U.S. YTD number, the present run rate of deliveries indicates a 2017 annual estimate of 70K (2016 was 76K).
Tesla's guidance for 2017 is a 110K. Using the actual estimated YTD WW deliveries of 39K (U.S. / 60%), this will require
about 70K in the next 5 months (14K/month WW - 8K/month U.S.) to achieve the 110K guidance. The best U.S. month
occurred in March, about 6K, but at the present declining sales of both the Model S & X, this appears unlikely.
Assuming that the Model E may 'bail out' Tesla, is wishful thinking. So will reality finally affect the TSLA value in late
2017?

Click to expand...

This again. July is the first month of Tesla's quarter where they deliver the fewest cars in the US. In July of 2016 Tesla sold 2,704 cars in the US but in the previous month of June '16 they sold, brace yourself, far more cars (5,845 deliveries). So from June '16 to July '16 sales "dropped" by more than half. Of course this was compensated for at the end of the quarter (September '16) when they sold the most cars in the US, like they always do, delivering 7,550 units.

So, apples-to-apples, Tesla's end of Q2 to beginning of Q3 drop was far better than past performance, indicating stronger demand than last year, not weaker. Furthermore, year-over-year, Tesla's July US deliveries rose 14% from 2016 to 2017. So far this year, US deliveries have risen from 21,734 to 23215, an increase of 7% over 2016 to the same period in time.

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-sales-chart-December-vfinal2.png

Click to expand...

Continual use of far out historical data and patterns are not indicative of future data, i.e. unless may be in your 1st year
business analytics class. Your analysis, i.e. your prediction, is no better - actually worse, than my data analysis which
relies on very recent data trends. Besides, who knows what happens in the next 6 months with the Model E affecting
production & sales, e.g. Model E cannibalizing Model S sales. It's been easy for Tesla to 'juggle' production and deliveries
at a less than a 100K per year volume. What happens, if and when, Tesla reaches a real OEM automotive sales volume,
which is critical for its long term survival?

Hopefully, if you work in any form of sales and you're required to provide a near term sales forecast, that your forecast
relies on near term data and mostly on present marketplace influences!

mtndrew1 said:

Furthermore, year-over-year, Tesla's July US deliveries rose 14% from 2016 to 2017. So far this year, US deliveries have risen from 21,734 to 23215, an increase of 7% over 2016 to the same period in time.

Click to expand...

A joke for a growth tech company!

lorenfb said:

mtndrew1 said:

lorenfb said:

Tesla's July U.S. deliveries for both the Model S & X per InsideEVs are the lowest for the last three months, i.e. with July's
deliveries declining over 30% from the previous month for both vehicles. Assuming the U.S. is about 60% of WW
and the U.S. YTD number, the present run rate of deliveries indicates a 2017 annual estimate of 70K (2016 was 76K).
Tesla's guidance for 2017 is a 110K. Using the actual estimated YTD WW deliveries of 39K (U.S. / 60%), this will require
about 70K in the next 5 months (14K/month WW - 8K/month U.S.) to achieve the 110K guidance. The best U.S. month
occurred in March, about 6K, but at the present declining sales of both the Model S & X, this appears unlikely.
Assuming that the Model E may 'bail out' Tesla, is wishful thinking. So will reality finally affect the TSLA value in late
2017?

Click to expand...

This again. July is the first month of Tesla's quarter where they deliver the fewest cars in the US. In July of 2016 Tesla sold 2,704 cars in the US but in the previous month of June '16 they sold, brace yourself, far more cars (5,845 deliveries). So from June '16 to July '16 sales "dropped" by more than half. Of course this was compensated for at the end of the quarter (September '16) when they sold the most cars in the US, like they always do, delivering 7,550 units.

So, apples-to-apples, Tesla's end of Q2 to beginning of Q3 drop was far better than past performance, indicating stronger demand than last year, not weaker. Furthermore, year-over-year, Tesla's July US deliveries rose 14% from 2016 to 2017. So far this year, US deliveries have risen from 21,734 to 23215, an increase of 7% over 2016 to the same period in time.

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-sales-chart-December-vfinal2.png

Click to expand...

Continual use of far out historical data and patterns are not indicative of future data, i.e. unless may be in your 1st year
business analytics class. Your analysis, i.e. your prediction, is no better - actually worse, than my data analysis which
relies on very recent data trends. Besides, who knows what happens in the next 6 months with the Model E affecting
production & sales, e.g. Model E cannibalizing Model S sales. It's been easy for Tesla to 'juggle' production and deliveries
at a less than a 100K per year volume. What happens, if and when, Tesla reaches a real OEM automotive sales volume,
which is critical for its long term survival?

Hopefully, if you work in any form of sales and you're required to provide a near term sales forecast, that your forecast
relies on near term data and mostly on present marketplace influences!

Click to expand...

Not sure if you have poor comprehension or willful ignorance but I made no predictions whatsoever. I merely said that year-over-year year to date Tesla sales are up, July-over-July sales are up, and the standard drop from the end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3 in 2017 is smaller than it was in 2016. All of these are true. I made no predictions going forward.

Based on your past performance, I could predict that your next response will devolve into personal attacks about me, my credibility, and my car.

mtndrew1 said:

...Not sure if you have poor comprehension or willful ignorance but I made no predictions whatsoever. I merely said that year-over-year year to date Tesla sales are up, July-over-July sales are up, and the standard drop from the end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3 in 2017 is smaller than it was in 2016. All of these are true. I made no predictions going forward.

Based on your past performance, I could predict that your next response will devolve into personal attacks about me, my credibility, and my car.

Click to expand...

My guess is willful ignorance, but I still haven't figured out quite why.
Loren seems to celebrate the sales numbers the first month of each quarter's month over month sales, but ignores the phenomenal results of the third month of the quarter when by the same measurement, sales are fantastic.

And while I agree with him that past results don't necessarily indicate future results. He doesn't go deeper than the numbers to look at why the numbers are the way they are.
If the underlying factors are understood, then it is pretty easy to understand that when the same underlying factors are present, similar results are likely.

Zythryn said:

My guess is willful ignorance, but I still haven't figured out quite why.
Loren seems to celebrate the sales numbers the first month of each quarter's month over month sales, but ignores the phenomenal results of the third month of the quarter when by the same measurement, sales are fantastic.

Click to expand...

It's so bizarre and predictable.

In any event as far as TSLA's corporate outlook I think the next six months will be a bit of a financial bloodbath as they ramp the Model 3, followed by a series of successes and an improving capex/revenue ratio. Stationary storage could certainly be a surprise revenue source going forward and is much quicker to deploy and recognize revenue on than an automobile.

Overall Elon seems to be going the Amazon route of running the business and I expect we'll see massive growth in 2018 forward provided they can weather the next six months. It's going to be fun to watch.

mtndrew1 said:

Overall Elon seems to be going the Amazon route of running the business and I expect we'll see massive growth in 2018 forward provided they can weather the next six months. It's going to be fun to watch.

Click to expand...

A stretch, trying to compare Elon/Tesla to Jeff/Amazon, i.e. can't compare a long term OEM auto business model to that of Amazon's. Without the SCs (easy to replicate), Tesla has no key advantage, i.e. its technology is not unique nor totally
propriety like was Apple's with the iPhone, e.g. the apps and phone integration.

Remember, Tesla missed their guidance in 2016 and in the next 5 months Tesla needs to deliver basically what
they delivered for all of 2016 - 70K units to achieve their 2017 guidance of 110K.

mtndrew1 said:

Stationary storage could certainly be a surprise revenue source going forward and is much quicker to deploy and recognize revenue on than an automobile.

Click to expand...

Totally insignificant! Try again.

Zythryn said:

My guess is willful ignorance, but I still haven't figured out quite why.

Click to expand...

Right, so start with an ad hominem!

Zythryn said:

Loren seems to celebrate the sales numbers the first month of each quarter's month over month sales, but ignores the phenomenal results of the third month of the quarter when by the same measurement, sales are fantastic.

And while I agree with him that past results don't necessarily indicate future results. He doesn't go deeper than the numbers to look at why the numbers are the way they are.
If the underlying factors are understood, then it is pretty easy to understand that when the same underlying factors are present, similar results are likely.

Click to expand...

My analysis was just based on simple calculations from published financial data. Don't like mine, then where is your analysis? You have access to the same data.

TSLA earnings and CC to follow this afternoon.

Conventional wisdom and/or idiocy:

Tesla earnings: Will Model 3 live up to the hype?

What quarterly losses? Wall Street to zero in on production timeline

Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday.

Wall Street expects another loss for Silicon Valley company, but that is unlikely to matter much. The real burning questions are the ones about the Model 3...

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla to report a loss of $2.39 a share in the second quarter, which would compare with a loss of $2.09 a share in the second quarter of 2016. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss of $1.88 a share in the quarter.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts as well fund managers, executives, academics, and others, has a consensus per-share loss of $1.78 for Tesla...

Other issues: Expect analysts to ask questions about the Model 3 production ramp and about how close Tesla is to fulfilling its promise to run its factory at a production rate of 500,000 vehicles annually by the end of 2018...

Click to expand...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-will-model-3-live-up-to-the-hype-2017-07-27

What TSLA creditors (including model 3 depositors?) might want to look for, IMO, the future date when we should expect TSLA's cash supply to reach the vanishing point:

Einhorn on Tesla Model 3: Cash Burn to Test Investors’ Faith

... expects TSLA to spent billions producing the Model 3

Einhorn ... noted that Tesla is expected to burn more than $2 billion this year for production of the Model 3.

He added that the automaker is “currently only capitalized for the next three quarters,” according to Bloomberg. He summed up by saying that Elon Musk and Co. will be testing the market’s willingness to fund the production ramp of the Model 3 throughout the year...

In addition to the comments on cash burn made by Einhorn on Tesla Model 3, he also made some more general comments in his second-quarter letter for Greenlight Capital, which was obtained by ValueWalk. His firm is short Tesla, and he’s been speaking out about why he feels the EV maker is grossly overvalued for quite some time. He joins Stanphyl Capital and a growing number of others who are firmly in the bear camp on Tesla.

In Greenlight’s second-quarter letter, Einhorn explained, “While its [Tesla’s] cars do not burn gasoline, the company burns more than enough cash to compensate, and behaves as if it will have access to nearly free capital for the foreseeable future.”...

Click to expand...

http://investorplace.com/2017/08/einhorn-tesla-model-3-cash-burn-test-investors-faith-ggsyn/#.WYHU14jyuUk

And nearly invisible in the smoke-screen, elon continues to lose senior staff almost as frequently as does our dear-leader donald...

Tesla Loses Key Executive in Charge of Battery Technology

...Kurt Kelty was director of battery technology at Tesla since 2006. His departure leaves CEO Elon Musk to fill a critical position at the electric automaker, Bloomberg reported. Kelty was valuable not only because he oversaw the one component that is a cornerstone to the electric automaker; He also led negotiations between Tesla and Panasonic to form a partnership to develop batteries together at a massive factory near Reno, Nevada.
Tesla confirmed Kelty left the company to "explore new opportunities," a spokesman said in an email...

A "severe production shortfall" of 100 kilowatt-hour battery packs, which are used in the company's luxury Model S, led to fewer vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, Tesla reported last month. The company was still able to hit the low end of its goal of delivering more than 47,000 vehicles in the first half of 2017.

An ample supply of battery packs will be crucial as Tesla goes from producing 100 Model 3 vehicles in August to 20,000 in December.

Click to expand...

http://fortune.com/2017/08/01/tesla-loses-key-executive-in-charge-of-battery-technology/

Meanwhile, there may be some indications that the most rapid ramp-up in automotive production in history (?) planned for the next few months just might not go entirely smoothly...

Elon Musk warns of ‘manufacturing hell’ to come—Tesla workers say factory safety is already worse than sawmills and slaughterhouses

Friday night, the billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk appeared in front of a cheering and adoring audience...

"We're going to go through at least six months of manufacturing hell," the Tesla CEO told a group of journalists ahead of the Model 3 event. On stage, Musk echoed the sentiment.

According to the Fremont, Calif., factory workers, Tesla is already putting its employees through a lot.

"One of the most serious issues concerns our health and safety," says a letter a group of factory workers from Tesla's main Fremont, Calif., facility submitted to the independent board members of Tesla on Monday"...

In May, California-based worker safety organization Worksafe published an extensive report after it analyzed the log of work-related injuries and illnesses at Tesla.

It found that Tesla's "total recordable incidence rate" was 8.8 percent (8.8 injuries per 100 workers) in 2015, the last full-year that data is available for. That's 31 percent more than the 6.7 percent total recordable incidence rate for the automobile industry as a whole, the report found, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

That 8.8 percent injury rate is higher than the similar injury rates of both sawmills and slaughterhouses, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sawmills have an injury rate of 7.3 percent and slaughterhouses have an injury rate of 5.1 to 7.3 percent, depending on the type of processing...

Click to expand...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/tesla-workers-complain-about-factory-safety.html

2nd quarter shareholder letter: http://ir.tesla.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=ABEA-4CW8X0&fileid=952053&filekey=F302D22F-FC9B-41A3-9534-60D0032673CC&filename=TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf

lorenfb: margin call! :lol:

edit: Wow +30 after hours

LTLFTcomposite said:

lorenfb: margin call! :lol:

edit: Wow +30 after hours

Click to expand...

Not sure exactly why. Unless there are a whole bunch of shorts that were expecting bad news that didn't happen.
Deliveries on target, expected ramp up hasn't changed.
The reservations for Model 3 is basically good. Net gains since the reveal. Some losses of reservations since they started taking reservations, but at a pretty small rate over the last 16 months.

Better than expected revenue, not only did bad things not happen but good things did.

Hadn't heard this before though: "The company expects to begin deliveries of the Model 3 to non-employees in the fourth quarter."

Sounds like a full 60 days of beta testing on production models. That's a smart move, the last thing they need is a field problem with a lot of units shipped, the more risk mitigated the better.

My expectations were exceeded, as I was prepared for weakening in Model S/X sales due to cannibalization from the Model 3. This might still happen, as the Model 3 with "long range" and "premium upgrades" looks quite impressive. On the other hand, Tesla says they're now seeing more S/X orders and interest, perhaps due to the increased exposure that the brand is getting right now. So it's hard to say what will happen.

One thing that grabbed my attention is that Elon Musk stated on the call that he's personally quite involved in Autopilot/autonomy efforts. They've had some high profile turnover on that team, and it seems to me that Elon stepped up his involvement because he hasn't been entirely happy with progress toward autonomy - he hedged when asked about the cross country autonomy demonstration that was promised by the end of 2017. From reading TMC, it seems that the AP2 software isn't yet much beyond AP1. Thankfully, Elon is bright enough, and has studied AI enough (remember Neuralink and OpenAI), to be able to contribute in meaningful ways. Between working on autonomy and launching the Model 3, and everything else on his plate, it's no wonder he has been stressed!

lorenfb said:

A joke for a growth tech company!

Click to expand...

No, that would be Snapchat.
A little more than a year ago Tesla was in the throes of a difficult Model X roll-out when the Model 3 reservations went through the roof. So much so that Tesla moved up production by almost a year. That's crazy-hard in the auto manufacturing business especially for an inexperienced player. A gutsy move that they pulled off. Amazing.
Not only that but they released a product (M3) that has the reservation list growing at a reported 1800/day!
Car reviewers are over the moon about the car. Anecdotally, 4 out of 5 of those who drove it said they'd definitely buy one.
I'll admit, I was expecting a bit of a drop in stock price after the ER since I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly. I was wrong as was the Street.

I doubt Uber thinks of Tesla as a joke.
I doubt Audi, BMW, MB think of Tesla as a joke. They know those impending 450,000+ car sales are conquests of their market share and they have no answer for years.

sparky said:

I'll admit, I was expecting a bit of a drop in stock price after the ER since I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly.

Click to expand...

Right, and that's the present ongoing problem, i.e. not a GAAP profitable entity. And being an OEM automotive
manufacturer long term results low margins. So given Tesla's business model, it will never be an Apple or Amazon.
What key ecosystem does Tesla have other than the SC system, which is easily replicated, that can differentiate it
from other OEM automotive manufacturers, e.g. batteries - don't think so (just lost key battery guy)?

The good aspect about Tesla's commitment to the SCs is that if Tesla goes Chapter 7, that system could be sold
to an energy supplier, e.g. EVGO, and modified for the remaining BEVs.

sparky said:

I doubt Uber thinks of Tesla as a joke.
I doubt Audi, BMW, MB think of Tesla as a joke. They know those impending 450,000+ car sales are conquests of their market share and they have no answer for years.

Click to expand...

You have access to Audi/BMW/MB key product plans, right? They are not like Tesla with product announcements.
For a typical growth tech company, Tesla's growth rate is nothing to 'write home about' (a joke). The 'jury
is still out' on whether, even with the M3 reservations, Tesla will ever be profitable!