Guess the Monroney contest: Tesla 3 and LEAF 2 efficiency ratings

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edatoakrun

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 11, 2010
Messages
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Location
Shasta County, North California
Well, it's been a week since model 3 "sales" started, and no sign of the required fuel economy disclosure.

So, either TSLA never affixed the “conditional fuel economy label(s)” to the 30 model 3s it has claimed to have sold, or the buyers have been suitably intimidated to prevent disclosure.

So lets guess!

And what the hell, why not do the same for the LEAF Gen two.

For the Tesla 3, I suggest you post your guess for the RWD large battery model-the first version which is supposed to be available to customers, sometime by late fall (?).

For the LEAF Gen two, post your guess for base pack, FWD, which is expected to be the first model available (if any other are planned).

Look here for relevant comparisons and the format our brave bureaucrats have decided on, MPGe, in City and Highway cycles.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=38558&id=38187&id=38431&id=38428

My guesses...and that is exactly what they are, since I make no claims of inside sources or information:



Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 125 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway


Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 140 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway




If you want to place your guesses, please add them, copy and repost all previous guesses in separate columns in the format above, along with your other (on-topic, PLEASE!) comments.

Background, from the Tesla 3 thread:

...Wonder if TSLA will reveal data from the “conditional fuel economy label” before or by tomorrow night?

And if so, will it be only for the optional-large-battery RWD versions it has said will be "delivered" tomorrow night, or show data for the entire model 3 range?

Tesla's Official Model 3 EPA Efficiency Data Will Be One Month Late

Tesla will launch its Model 3 on Friday, July 28th without official EPA energy efficiency data.


Like many aspects of Telsa's vehicle launches, the energy efficiency data is an afterthought to be handled when time permits, rather before the cars start to be sold to private owners.

No Official Window Sticker For Model 3

In the U.S., every car sold must have a Monroney sticker affixed to its side window by law.
The is sticker has evolved over the years, but now contains primarily fuel economy information (in the largest font on the sticker), energy (or fuel) costs in the second largest font size, crash test data from NHTSA, manufacturing location and parts origin by percentage, and, of course, the individual vehicle's MSRP and standard and optional content in the smallest font. Tesla will be providing vehicles to consumers without official data...

We asked the folks at http://www.fueleconomy.gov if the information was available and discovered it was not. Our inquiry was timely. Just yesterday, July 26th, 2017, http://www.fueleconomy.gov received an e-mail from the EPA informing the group that the data would be a month late and that official sales of the Model 3 would start on July 28th (not what you may have otherwise heard reported). Instead of an official Monroney sticker, the EPA will allow Tesla to ship a limited number of vehicles (possibly less than 100 in total) with “conditional fuel economy label”. http://WWW.fueleconomy.gov explained to us that, "This provision in EPA regulations allows manufacturers to introduce a model based on manufacturer’s test data, while the test vehicle is being confirmatory tested at EPA." The group says that EPA won't be sending any information to http://www.fueleconomy.gov until the data is finalized, which is estimated to take another month...
https://www.torquenews.com/1083/teslas-official-model-3-epa-data-will-be-one-month-late...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=860
 
No city/Highway MPGe breakdown for the 3 yet, but the combined efficiency rating has been leaked:

Tesla Model 3 EPA Fuel Economy label shows its efficiency

...A member of the TMC forum whose username is stopcrazypp noticed the Tesla Model 3’s EPA Fuel Economy label in a picture posted online of its frunk (front trunk). The picture has poor resolution and most information can’t be read, however we can see that the combined efficiency rate is 126 MPGe.

The 126 MPGe figure is impressive, especially considering that it’s for the less efficient longer range version with the heavier battery. This makes the Tesla Model 3 only second to the Hyundai IONIQ Electric which gets an amazing 136 MPGe...
http://pushevs.com/2017/08/06/tesla-model-3-epa-fuel-economy-label-shows-efficiency/
 
edatoakrun said:
So, either TSLA never affixed the “conditional fuel economy label(s)” to the 30 model 3s it has claimed to have sold, or the buyers have been suitably intimidated to prevent disclosure.
I stopped reading here. Trolls annoy me.

A photo of the Model 3 Monroney is floating around on the web. It was placed in the frunk
The Dyno Coefficients from the roll-down testing have been published.

Go fetch.
 
Nubo, 8/3/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 106 MPGe City 118 MPGe Highway


Nubo, 8/3/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 108 MPGe City 115 MPGe Highway
 
SageBrush said:
edatoakrun said:
So, either TSLA never affixed the “conditional fuel economy label(s)” to the 30 model 3s it has claimed to have sold, or the buyers have been suitably intimidated to prevent disclosure.
I stopped reading here...
If you hadn't been so committed to maintaining your ignorance, and continued reading, you would have seen exactly what we know from the photo leak (126 combined MPGe) and what we still don't know...the rest of the label contents.

For those who missed it on the model 3 thread:

https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/datafiles/CSI-HTSLV00.0L13.PDF

Nubo said:
Nubo, 8/3/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 106 MPGe City 118 MPGe Highway


Nubo, 8/3/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 108 MPGe City 115 MPGe Highway
Again, the 126 MPGe combined reported for the 3 makes those guesses impossible.

As to the LEAF, you don't expect too much, do you?
 
"If you hadn't been so committed to maintaining your ignorance"
If you had not been so committed to trolling, you would not question the Tesla sales or the presence of a Monroney ... since you knew about the photo.

Does this forum have an ignore feature ? I am quite sick of you.
 
Tesla Model 3 Long Range ("310 mile")
131 City
120 Highway
126 Combined
 
If you want to guess, please add yours to the columns below:

Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 125 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway
Nubo, 8/6/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 106 MPGe City 118 MPGe Highway
TEG, Tesla 8/8 (310 m pack) 131 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway


Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 140 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway
Nubo, 8/6/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 108 MPGe City 115 MPGe Highway

TEG said:
Tesla Model 3 Long Range ("310 mile")
131 City
120 Highway
126 Combined
You may be right about the model 3 city rating being that high.

The big surprise in the model 3 specs we now know from the subsequent leaks of the combined MPGe and model three certification report, which I was not expecting when I guessed on 8/3, was the change to (presumably) more efficient "AC 3 PHASE PERMENANT (sic) MAGNET" motors from the inefficient and problematic motors used on the S and X types.

https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/datafiles/CSI-HTSLV00.0L13.PDF

On the other hand, the recent leaks of Nissan LEAF Gen two specs (if correct) that it will actually be ~110 lbs heavier, and slightly taller and wider than the Gen one, makes my 8/3 MPGe guesses for the Gen two look awfully optimistic.
 
edatoakrun said:
If you want to guess, please add yours to the columns below:

Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 125 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway
Nubo, 8/6/17 Tesla 3 (310 m pack) 106 MPGe City 118 MPGe Highway
TEG, Tesla 8/8 (310 m pack) 131 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway


Edatoakrun, 8/3/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 140 MPGe City 120 MPGe Highway
Nubo, 8/6/17 LEAF Gen two (base) 108 MPGe City 115 MPGe Highway
...
Game over for the Tesla, it appears.

A better photo of a model 3 Monroney (final or preliminary?) has now turned up, showing 131 MPGe city, 120 MPGe highway:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/monroney-stickers.94992/page-2

TEG pegged it, but that was after he posted his blurry photo of the sticker on the thread above, so that now appears not to be a guess...exactly.

I also got 120 MPGe highway (lucky guess) before that announcement, but wasn't expecting the model 3 motor upgrade (discussed p. 1) which may be the primary reason the 3 does so much better than previous Teslas in the city MPGe rating.

Still time to guess the numbers for the LEAF, which just might be announced tonight.
 
Ever since the partial Monroney sticker of the Model 3 showing 126 MPGe combined was known, the city and highway MPGe have been a matter of arithmetic using the EPA CSI report UDDS and Highway ratios. Like this
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2243103/

Just have to get the ratio arithmetic correct ... :oops:
 
TEG said:
Tesla Model 3 Long Range ("310 mile")
131 City
120 Highway
126 Combined


Do I win a prize?

20170903_071124-jpg.245460
 
TEG said:
TEG said:
Tesla Model 3 Long Range ("310 mile")
131 City
120 Highway
126 Combined

Do I win a prize?
No prizes.

And the term guess indicates the answer is unknown to you.

Try guessing the LEAF numbers...unless you've also got a picture of its sticker?

Everyone should feel free to post that, when it shows up, ending the contest.

BTW, after last night's reveal, I think its even more likely that my LEAF guesses from ~a month ago may have been too high.
 
Still no Monroney for the 2018 LEAF?

Still no more guesses?

I went off on an off-topic reply for another thread reviewing earlier MY LEAF Monroney numbers.

Since it illustrates why the MPGe numbers , IMO, should really be given more credence that the EPA-rated range, I'll post it here instead.

abasile said:
... the 2017 LEAF is rated at 112 MPGe compared to 99 MPGe on the 2011 LEAF. That's only 13% better, but still significant. Much of that comes from having a more efficient charging system, of course...
Gen one LEAF efficiency rating peaked with the 2013 MY, at 115 MPGEe.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=34699&id=33558&id=32154&id=30979

The more efficient charging system explanation for the large MY 2013 MPGe increase became entrenched after a well-known (but unfortunately, incompetent) LEAF range-tester claimed there was no increased range from the 2013 MY LEAF.

IMO, the myth is conclusively debunked by EPA MY certification reports, which were unavailable ~five years ago.

It seems fairly clear that the ~16% MPGe increase in the 2013 MY was largely due to the multiple improvements in lower aero resistance, and increased drive train, regen and braking efficiency.

It looks like only a few percent of the efficiency gain could have been from the more-efficient higher kW 240 v charge cycle.

The large actual range increases (not shown by the EPA rating on the window sticker) was also due in part to an increase in actual battery capacity, from 2012 to 2013 MY, as confirmed by AVTA tests.

2012 MY:

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=26807&flag=1

2013 MY:

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=29931&flag=1

Note the much longer range of the 2013 MY in both highway and the city cycle, and only a slight increase in AC energy used to recharge the same "24 kWh" (Nissan-spec) pack.

Since 2013 MY slightly higher charge cycle efficiency is more than offset by higher available capacity, it actually took a few hundred more AC Wh to recharge the 2013 MY after full discharges, than the 2012 MY.
 
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39640&id=38168&id=39322&id=39641

2018 MY BEV economy and range ratings have begun to be posted.

Hyundai Ioniq and Ford Focus E unchanged from 2017.

2018 Kia Soul shows slightly higher efficiency, and much higher 111 mile combined range from the new "30 kWh" (available?) pack.

2018 LEAF not posted yet, and, oddly neither is any MY Tesla model 3...

New BEV list:

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=2017&year2=2018&vtype=Electric&pageno=1&sortBy=Comb&tabView=0&rowLimit=10
 
Otherwise insipid comparison test by MT, posts its own estimate for LEAF efficiency.

THE AUTOMOBILE 2.0: CHEVROLET BOLT EV VS NISSAN LEAF VS TESLA MODEL 3 LONG RANGE

The first comparison test of the practical electric car


...(LEAF) 130/106/118 mpg-e (est)...
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2017/the-automobile-2-0-chevrolet-bolt-ev-premier-vs-nissan-leaf-sl-vs-tesla-model-3-long-range/
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Anyone taking bets that Tesla range and efficiency is overstated?
As discussed elsewhere, TSLA has understated the range for the model 3, as compared to the actual EPA range test data below:

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=39792&flag=1

I doubt Nissan will do the same, and I'm guessing the EPA sticker will read somewhere between 150 and 155 miles combined range as determined by the range tests in Nissan's EPA submission, which also should soon be available at the database above.
 
edatoakrun said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Anyone taking bets that Tesla range and efficiency is overstated?
As discussed elsewhere, TSLA has understated the range for the model 3, as compared to the actual EPA range test data below:

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=39792&flag=1

I doubt Nissan will do the same, and I'm guessing the EPA sticker will read somewhere between 150 and 155 miles combined range as determined by the range tests in Nissan's EPA submission, which also should soon be available at the database above.

I meant on the 225
 
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