LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

evnow said:

People don't buy a vehicle for their "average" needs. They buy to fulfill 90%+ of their needs - not 50% of their needs.

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Excellent point. When you buy a house, you are getting all sorts of features and comforts unavailable if you were living in a shack. But if you are told that the roof leaks occasionally when it rains, and there is no way to fix the issue, will you still buy this house?

The value of a vehicle is not the sum total of its features. A misfeature or a lack of a feature can actually subtract from the total value. And the subtraction can be disproportional. If you were offered the most perfect and affordable car possibly built, but were told that once a year its brakes will unpredictably fail for a few minutes, will you still buy this car?

LeftieBiker said:

There have apparently been numerous instances of the Rex system dying and "bricking" the whole car - disabling it at the side of, or even in the middle of, the road. I've also read that compared with, say, a Prius, the Rex is dirty and smelly. I personally wouldn't object to either a Ultra Low Emission gasoline Rex or a CNG Rex with a tiny tank, but the BMW system seems cobbled together, and poorly at that.

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Again, none of these issues are due to the very valid concept of a serial hybrid EV. The problem with the i3 is the huge size of the engine (25 kW I believe) when you only need 5 kW for city driving or to find a charging station, the small size of the gas tank, and the inability to turn it on at will.

The idiots at CARB could have done the whole world a lot less disservice if they restricted the size of the engine rather than restrict the size of the tank (although it is possible to carry jerry cans and get around CARB's stupidity). At 5 kW Rex, people are forced to find a charge station, as opposed to keep on driving. That would meet the clean air intentions far better.

Interleaf said:

...none of these issues are due to the very valid concept of a serial hybrid EV. The problem with the i3 is the huge size of the engine (25 kW I believe) when you only need 5 kW for city driving or to find a charging station, the small size of the gas tank, and the inability to turn it on at will.

The idiots at CARB could have done the whole world a lot less disservice if they restricted the size of the engine rather than restrict the size of the tank (although it is possible to carry jerry cans and get around CARB's stupidity). At 5 kW Rex, people are forced to find a charge station, as opposed to keep on driving. That would meet the clean air intentions far better.

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Yes, CARB's idiotic BEVx regulations, and prejudice shown in favor of high subsidies for both HFCVs and oversized-pack BEVs, have effectively blocked the rational development of BEVs equipped with useful ICE ”range extenders”.

You might want to read, and comment (on-topic) at this thread that preceded CARB's misguidance:

The “range–extended” EV (BEVx) considered

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:50 am

...In fact, a true ICE ”range extender” for a BEV is not a bad Idea, It's just that current designs are all abysmal failures, from the point of energy efficiency and driver utility. Putting an ICE drivetrain in an EV, whether in series, parallel, or any other hybrid configuration, is not advisable, IMO. Invariably, you will get an overweight, overpriced, underperforming vehicle, like the Volt. It seems almost as ridiculous, to install an extremely expensive and heavy large battery pack (like the Tesla S long-range options) which is only occasionally required by the BEV driver.

A functional range extender would consist of:

A small displacement (200-600 CC) ICE generator, run at highest-efficiency rpm, to recharge the battery pack. Generator output would not be sufficient to drive the vehicle, just enough to extend the battery pack range to the next convenient recharge location.

It would not run on gasoline, but a less polluting, and more stable fuel, such as propane (easier refueling) or CNG (lower cost). 5 gallons of Propane, for example, would probably offer about 200 miles of range extention for a LEAF-sized BEV...

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http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6847

Back on-topic, while a BEVx LEAF is unlikely, IMO, there is a real possibility that a Gen two LEAF derivative will eventually be offered in a e-Power PHEV specification.

edatoakrun said:

Nissan's e-Power range-extended Note BEV, for sale by 11/16 in Japan?

Whatever you want to call it, it sells in Japan:

In A Surprise Upset, Nissan's e-Powered Note Tops Japan's Charts

Powered by a simple, but stunningly effective series hybrid called e-power, Nissan’s lowly Note MPV has upset Japan’s usually Toyota-dominated sales charts. In January, Nissan’s Note became Japan’s best-selling car, a title usually monopolized by Toyota’s Prius. To make the blamage extra painful: Place two was taken by Nissan’s semi-autonomous Serena Minivan.

...some 42,000 Nissan Notes were sold, Nissan’s spokesman Nic Maxfield told me today, adding that “e-Power accounts for roughly 70% of sales so far.” The trick seems to be to convince customers to test drive the e-powered Note, Nissan folk told me. Once people sat in the surprisingly agile and at the same time astoundingly fuel-thrifty car, they usually sign at the bottom line...

The surprisingly successful power-train is available in Japan only, but successful as it is, it most likely will travel abroad real soon now.

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/02/06/in-a-surprise-upset-nissans-e-powered-note-tops-japans-charts/#1514849723d3

Good news in that by increasing production numbers of the common BEV drivetrain, it should help Nissan bring down costs for all future BEVs, and...

Any one else interested in a semi-autonomous Nissan truck or SUV equipped with e-Power and a ~30 kWh battery pack?

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http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22166&start=50

Makes a lot more sense to me than loading up and paying for ~three times as large a pack as you need (90% to 99% of the time) and then still having to wait for for relatively slow and expensive "fast" charges, when you take the (1% to 10% of the time) long trip.

cwerdna said:

To put it simply, the i3 REx is a POS from a reliability POV.

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Surely a gas engine is never as reliable as an electric motor, in particular in a newly designed vehicle.

I do not recommend anyone lease or buy an i3 REx. If they really want an i3, they should get the BEV version and consider only leasing. If they buy, dump when the warranty's over.

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This is an issue with bad implementation or bad design. It does not invalidate the minimalist engine serial EV (MESEV) concept.

Because the engine is so wimpy and underpowered, unless you "code" it, you would NOT want to take it up uphill grades at highway or even leisurely speeds.

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The idea of the Rex is not to travel. The idea is to find a charging station or get back home.

But I fail to see why it is underpowered at 25 kW. At 55 mph highway, consumption is on the average 15 kW. In the city, that can drop to 5 kW depending on traffic. As long as the Rex can be turned on at will, it should have enough time to charge the battery, even at 5 kW.

The fact that CARB restricts the Rex to 5% SoC indicates the utter stupidity and incompetence of the regulatory planner. Instead of enabling EVs through a proper working Rex, they are disabling EVs by inducing range anxiety in the population. Just shows how simplistic thinking and out of touch these government bureaucrats are in their zeal to over-regulate. Again, if the intention is to stop an SEV from becoming a hybrid, then underpower the engine to 5 kW.

People drive dangerously on the highway all the time. For an i3 to limp along at 35 mph on a steep highway grade, is as bad as someone driving 85 mph on a highway. How often do we see someone over-speeding? A lot more often than someone under-speeding. Just because a few i3s caused issues on a highway with under-speeds, should not invalidate the concept. Besides, highways do have minimum speed limits.

Interleaf said:

TheJeebas said:

Tesla Model 3 Long-Range - $44,000 | 70 kWh (est total) | 310 miles EPA Range | $142 per mile | 4.4285 mpkWh (est total)
Tesla Model 3 Standard - $35,000 | 50 kWh (est total) | 220 miles EPA Range | $159 per mile | 4.4 mpkWh (est total)
2017 Chevrolet Bolt - $36,680 | 60 kWh (total) | 238 miles EPA Range | $154 per mile | 3.96 mpkWh (total)
2017 Hyundai Ioniq - $29,500 | 28 kWh (total) | 125 miles EPA Range | $236 per mile | 4.46 mpkWh (total)
2017 Nissan Leaf - $30,680 | 30 kWh (total) | 107 miles EPA Range | $287 per mile | 3.56 mpkWh (total)

2018 Nissan Leaf - $29,990 | 40 kWh (total) | 150 miles EPA Range (est) | $200 per mile | 3.75 mpkWh (total)

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Comparing EVs on price/range is not very helpful. Because range is not linear. Range is logarithmic. A range of 200 miles is not twice as useful as a range of 100 miles. Only 50% more useful. Comparison should be price/logarithmic range.

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That entire argument is subjective, both ways I will admit. A 200+ range vehicle is X as useful compared to a 100 range vehcile as customer Y feels that it is.

Semi-related since it has been mentioned a few times: Where are we seeing Bolts being heavily discounted to move them off lots? Any factual info / links?

Interleaf said:

For an i3 to limp along at 35 mph on a steep highway grade, is as bad as someone driving 85 mph on a highway. .

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While I agree that there is concern and a problem with the iRex, I never bought into this statement.

<soapbox mode ON>
If there is someone driving slow and someone gets frustrated and passes unsafely and causes a problem, it is ALWAYS the fault of the person who passed unsafely..

Always..

No one ever MAKES you drive unsafely... That is your choice and your fault.

Someone could be driving 5 miles per hour on a 1 lane freeway. That person would be a jerk and should pull over, but if someone passes and causes an accident, then he wasn't safe to pass... It is his fault. Not the slow driver...
Driver's need to take responsibility for their driving...

</soapbox mode OFF>

desiv

TheJeebas said:

...Where are we seeing Bolts being heavily discounted to move them off lots? Any factual info / links?

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This site shows $4,600 as the highest Bolt discount as of 7/12, and should update soon:

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/2017/02/current-discounts-on-selected-evs.html

Note the even higher discounts on most other BEVs and PHEVs.

You never have to pay list price for any energy-efficient or "Plug-in" vehicle while gas is this cheap...unless you buy a Tesla.

edatoakrun said:

TheJeebas said:

...Where are we seeing Bolts being heavily discounted to move them off lots? Any factual info / links?

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This site shows $4,600 as the highest Bolt discount as of 7/12, and should update soon:

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/2017/02/current-discounts-on-selected-evs.html

Note the even higher discounts on most other BEVs and PHEVs.

You never have to pay list price for any energy-efficient or "Plug-in" vehicle while gas is this cheap...unless you buy a Tesla.

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$6500 off here

I suppose that this time next year Leaf 2 will be heavily discounted too and S trim will be $24k before credits, so dirt cheap.

Where are we seeing Bolts being heavily discounted to move them off lots? Any factual info / links?

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Here is the regular ad in Silicon Valley:



And they are still piling up on the dealer's lots.

The dealer in Sugar Land TX (Houston) is one of the largest in the area. They had 10 on the lot that they said were all sold (OK - it was a car salesman!) This is without any significant incentives (except the tax credit). Went on a 250 mile + trip in one last weekend - drove it myself for over 100 miles with several miles on rough gravel road. It is a great vehicle to drive - with fully loaded four people.

A number of people have recently started to ask me (out of the "blue") about my Leaf and that they really want an EV, but worried so much about "how far can I go?" Seems the Bolt is answering that question.

"How far can I go?" is always the first question. When they hear "84 EPA" a little switch flips in their heads and they loose interest. 238 sounds a bit better. 160 just seems disappointing.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

"How far can I go?" is always the first question. When they hear "84 EPA" a little switch flips in their heads and they loose interest. 238 sounds a bit better. 160 just seems disappointing.

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+1

At 238 a few more people start to think hmmm maybe this would work for me and ask how hard is it to find charging stations and how long will it take to recharge. Then they take a look at the size of the car and how not cool it is for the price tag and move on.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

"How far can I go?" is always the first question. When they hear "84 EPA" a little switch flips in their heads and they loose interest. 238 sounds a bit better. 160 just seems disappointing.

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$43K sounds disappointing, $29k sounds interesting. $18K flips a switch in their heads and they say "tell me more."

"How far can I go" is best answered "how far do you need to go each day?"

OrientExpress said:

"How far can I go" is best answered "how far do you need to go each day?"

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IMO trying to redefine the customer's wants and needs around the reduced capabilities compared to what they are accustomed to is a recipe for prolonging slow adoption rates.
How far do I need to go? Work is six miles round trip. Most amenities in the area are within ten miles; some are further. But anything in Miami (port, airport, south beach, etc) is 100 miles round trip. Key West is probably 400, Tampa is 500, Orlando is 400. I don't go to those places every day, but I "need" to go fairly regularly.
Rationalize all you want, but the customer gets to decide, and limited range isn't resonating with Joe Motorist.

Don't confuse helping someone define their needs better vs rationalizing a solution.

To follow your example, ocassional 400 mile trips appear to rank higher than the rest of your driving needs, so in that case you would be best served by a conventional automobile.

And most people in the states will continue to buy conventional vehicles. EVs don't interest them at all, even a cheaper shorter range EV. How far they drive each day on average is a thought they never have and refuse to entertain.

For the US minority that want an EV, if they have the means, they'll get a 3. If that's a stretch, they'll go with their perceived best value, given the limited selection outside the PRoC. Most of us lease, so MSRPs don't matter, just total lease cost. If the limited choice becomes a 238 car for less than a 160 car, that's one less 160 car order. Unless Nissan pulls a rabbit out of its hat, that's what I expect next month.

I don't think Nissan will start discounting right off. Should take a week or two anyway. Then they'll be able to offer lower lease rates and if the deals are low enough, sales should pick up.

For example: I can lease a Bolt LT with QC and both packages based off of $32k. For about the same money, I could lease a Leaf S (if it were available and the leak numbers are correct) with QC and the winter package, or a SV without that package. That makes the Bolt the better value and I can get one today. It could be 6 months before the Leaf is delivered, and I'm off warranty and it'd be another winter with an 80 mile car when I could have triple the range for the same lease payment I have now. If the disappointing leaked info is right, maybe Nissan has done me a favor and forced my hand. No matter how low Nissan can discount this car for, it will still be only 40 kWh, and so, a second class EV.

A pity too, Nissan could have several EV models for sale here by now, and gigafactories, and supercharger networks. Instead, they're too little, too late.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

For example: I can lease a Bolt LT with QC and both packages based off of $32k. For about the same money, I could lease a Leaf S (if it were available and the leak numbers are correct) with QC and the winter package, or a SV without that package. That makes the Bolt the better value and I can get one today. It could be 6 months before the Leaf is delivered, and I'm off warranty and it'd be another winter with an 80 mile car when I could have triple the range for the same lease payment I have now. If the disappointing leaked info is right, maybe Nissan has done me a favor and forced my hand. No matter how low Nissan can discount this car for, it will still be only 40 kWh, and so, a second class EV.

A pity too, Nissan could have several EV models for sale here by now, and gigafactories, and supercharger networks. Instead, they're too little, too late.

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That's a good deal on the Bolt! In TX, the same car would run just over 38k. Is that all Chevy discounts or are state and federal discounts included?
And isn't it about time for another Nissan tease?!? I need my official 2.0 fix

Just Chevy discounts. Lots of variation across the states.