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dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
eyedrop said:
Does anyone have a good guess on when the used 2013 base model S will drop below $30k used? With the Model 3 at 35k brand new and all the hype, I'm hoping to get a lower base model S in the next year or two. Family and wife gives green light as soon as we find a $29,000 Tesla with a clean title...
I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.

hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.

hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...
Here's a nearly-new S90 D that looks likely to be for sale soon...

BATTERY TOO WEAK.

Environment minister restrains service-Tesla


...Green-politician Remmel had wanted to use the electric car as a sign for the expansion of electric mobility.
However, the car had failed as a ministerial body during the trials which ended in May.
"The maximum range was in the long-range tests, depending on driving style and route profile, under 300 kilometers. This range could only be exhausted if it was then ensured that the batteries could be charged...
http://www.bild.de/regional/duesseldorf/tesla/umweltministerin-schafft-dienst-tesla-ab-52837146.bild.html
 
edatoakrun said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
dgpcolorado said:
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.

hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...

No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40k
Of 470 on autotrader only 7 under $39.9k, cheapest is 35.9 and is rebuilt/salvage
A search of craigslist in the US via search tempest shows about 6-8 for $37-39.9, I believe some are salvage.

You could get a brand new Tesla for $1000 if you buy the winning ticket in the sweepstakes I saw online, but until someone can jump on Craigslist or one of the major classified sites and find at least one or two in their metro area for $30k, I would refrain from saying they are already available at that price. Realistically, they are still $10k above that at the cheapest.
 
Firetruck41 said:
edatoakrun said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...

No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40K...
Asking prices do not reflect actual transaction prices, especially in markets where prices are falling rapidly.

These both appear to be legitimate sales which show what you can get for ~$35k to ~$40 k.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Model-S-85-/162610978333?hash=item25dc5e9e1d:g:LSkAAOSwPK5ZflSJ&vxp=mtr

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Model-S-/391851631076?hash=item5b3c2d61e4:g:3YcAAOSwBhxZclx3&vxp=mtr

As comparing those two sales show, Tesla depreciation corresponds closely to miles driven

Even after the first 100k miles, they still seem to continue to depreciate ~25 cents, for every additional mile.

It's true there are not any recent sales for 2012 Base S's reported on EBAY, or anywhere else?

Did TSLA make more than a few of them?

I agree KBB is not always accurate, but in my experience (none recently, my last used-car purchase was in 1999) I was always able to buy used cars from private parties below KBB prices.
 
Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.
 
edatoakrun said:
Firetruck41 said:
edatoakrun said:
To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40K...
Asking prices do not reflect actual transaction prices, especially in markets where prices are falling rapidly.

These both appear to be legitimate sales which show what you can get for ~$35k to ~$40 k.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Model-S-85-/162610978333?hash=item25dc5e9e1d:g:LSkAAOSwPK5ZflSJ&vxp=mtr

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Model-S-/391851631076?hash=item5b3c2d61e4:g:3YcAAOSwBhxZclx3&vxp=mtr

As comparing those two sales show, Tesla depreciation corresponds closely to miles driven

Even after the first 100k miles, they still seem to continue to depreciate ~25 cents, for every additional mile.

It's true there are not any recent sales for 2012 Base S's reported on EBAY, or anywhere else?

Did TSLA make more than a few of them?

Yup, and I can get that $1k Tesla, if I am real lucky and am willing to travel across the country! :roll:

I don't think I will be making any statistical analysis on depreciation per mile, based on two ebay auctions.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.
90 S's FS on EBAY at the moment. Take a look at:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-Tesla-Model-S-/122637412945?hash=item1c8dc26a51:g:pfQAAOSwEupZieLS&vxp=mtr

2012 Tesla Model S 85 for sale

This is a two owner car. Second owner bought from Tesla and was given a 4 year, 50,000 mile bumper to bumper CPO warranty. In addition the battery and drivetrain have an 8 year, unlimited mileage warranty which started when car was first sold. Mileage at start of CPO warranty was approximately 54,000 miles, so there are 20,000 miles (roughly) left.

Car is loaded:
85 kWh battery, only degraded about 6%, and no degradation in the 1.5 years under current ownership
Panoramic roof
Active air suspension
Black car with tan leather seats
Tech package
Navigation included
Bluetooth included
Motorized trunk
Eco-hitch installed which is perfect for bike racks and such
Front and rear dashcams installed
Comes with charging cable and various adapters
No accidents that current owner is aware of
Clear title

Car is located in Surorise, AZ, which is Phoenix metro area (NW Phoenix)...

The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?
 
edatoakrun said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.
90 S's FS on EBAY at the moment. Take a look at:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-Tesla-Model-S-/122637412945?hash=item1c8dc26a51:g:pfQAAOSwEupZieLS&vxp=mtr

2012 Tesla Model S 85 for sale

This is a two owner car. Second owner bought from Tesla and was given a 4 year, 50,000 mile bumper to bumper CPO warranty. In addition the battery and drivetrain have an 8 year, unlimited mileage warranty which started when car was first sold. Mileage at start of CPO warranty was approximately 54,000 miles, so there are 20,000 miles (roughly) left.

Car is loaded:
85 kWh battery, only degraded about 6%, and no degradation in the 1.5 years under current ownership
Panoramic roof
Active air suspension
Black car with tan leather seats
Tech package
Navigation included
Bluetooth included
Motorized trunk
Eco-hitch installed which is perfect for bike racks and such
Front and rear dashcams installed
Comes with charging cable and various adapters
No accidents that current owner is aware of
Clear title

Car is located in Surorise, AZ, which is Phoenix metro area (NW Phoenix)...

The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?
Crazy huh? That's why I never buy new (OK, I did once, out of about 20+ vehicles, it was a brand new model and I broke even selling it a few years later). Hopefully most people that buy a new vehicle have at least an inkling that this will be the case, especially purchasing luxo/near luxo type vehicles.

Per article on carfax:
Don’t be fooled into thinking depreciation slows much after the first year. The fact is, new cars continue to lose value for four more years, averaging a decline of 15-25 percent per year. On average, a new car will lose 60 percent of its total value over the first five years of its life.
 
edatoakrun said:
The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?
And what's the street price of a 2012 LEAF? A quick search on cars.com shows $7300-$10k, but IMO you'd be crazy to pay even the low end of the price unless you knew it had a lizard pack in it and 12 bars of capacity.

Proportionally, it's value is worse, even accounting for tax credits and rebates.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.

hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
CPO S60s are already in the $35k to $39k range, although they don't last long and are hard to find (those are the ones with the new 2 year, up to 100k total miles, full warranty, versus the usual 4 year 50k miles CPO warranty; all of them have the balance of the 8 year drive train warranty, of course). [BTW, a recent CPO $39k S60 had 58k miles on it and was a late 2014 model.]

With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market. We shall see.

I like pretty much everything about the S better than the 3 but a new car for about the same price is tempting. If the 3 is designed to be so much simpler to build it also might be more reliable, although that remains to be seen. I'll be interested to see how things shake out with the 3, both in production and service. I don't need to worry about making a decision until 2019 since I can't use the federal tax credit anyway.
 
dgpcolorado said:
With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market.
Yeah, but you have to knock $10k off the price of the 3 in California ($12.5k in Colorado?) to get closer to apples-to-apples. And I personally would not consider a used Model S/X without the 4-year CPO warranty given the cost of certain out-of-warranty repairs.

Next of 2018 will be difference with tax credits running out for Tesla, but I highly suspect that with Tesla and GM running out next year, there will be a decent push to change the EV tax credit rules.
 
drees said:
edatoakrun said:
The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?
And what's the street price of a 2012 LEAF? A quick search on cars.com shows $7300-$10k, but IMO you'd be crazy to pay even the low end of the price unless you knew it had a lizard pack in it and 12 bars of capacity.

Proportionally, it's value is worse, even accounting for tax credits and rebates.
All mass-market priced BEVs have depreciated rapidly over the last ~five years as the price for new BEVs in this class have dropped drastically, to the point that many are reporting purchasing new LEAFs (and other, compliance BEVs) for less than $10,000 after incentives.

That's less than half the price I paid over six years ago for a LEAF with only a ~21 kWh available pack, after incentives.

The depreciation resulting from new BEV price reductions doesn't bother me very much, as I've saved more $ on gas than I paid in excess BEV depreciation, and I don't see my next BEV costing too little, as being a problem for me...

I think you should expect rapid price cuts on new Ss and Xs by the time TSLA is engaged by its first competition in the luxury BEV market next year, if not before, resulting in accelerated depreciation rates on used Teslas, similar to what we have already seen in all lower-priced BEVs.

High TSLA initial purchase prices and other costs will mean TCO per mile for these BEVs will be even higher than the astronomical costs (compared with other BEVs) to date.
 
drees said:
dgpcolorado said:
With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market.
Yeah, but you have to knock $10k off the price of the 3 in California ($12.5k in Colorado?) to get closer to apples-to-apples. And I personally would not consider a used Model S/X without the 4-year CPO warranty given the cost of certain out-of-warranty repairs.
For me that 4 year CPO warranty is actually a little over two years, given my mileage. The Model S is my only car and is so much fun to drive — plus free Supercharging — that the miles add up quickly. Very different from my LEAF, with only 32k miles over more than four years, despite 70+ mile grocery shopping trips here. One advantage of the S — even a used one, if not too old — is the eight year drive train warranty. The 3 has only an eight year 100k/125k mile battery warranty. The drive train would be part of the general 4 year 50k mile warranty on the 3.
Next of 2018 will be difference with tax credits running out for Tesla, but I highly suspect that with Tesla and GM running out next year, there will be a decent push to change the EV tax credit rules.
In the current political climate I would be flabbergasted if the EV tax credit was extended in any way!

It seems time to let EVs stand on their own anyway. (Of course, that's easy for me to say since I don't qualify for the federal tax credit and the $5000 Colorado tax credit still has several years to run before it begins to phase out.)
 
dgpcolorado said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
dgpcolorado said:
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.

hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
CPO S60s are already in the $35k to $39k range, although they don't last long and are hard to find (those are the ones with the new 2 year, up to 100k total miles, full warranty, versus the usual 4 year 50k miles CPO warranty; all of them have the balance of the 8 year drive train warranty, of course). [BTW, a recent CPO $39k S60 had 58k miles on it and was a late 2014 model.]

With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market. We shall see.

I like pretty much everything about the S better than the 3 but a new car for about the same price is tempting. If the 3 is designed to be so much simpler to build it also might be more reliable, although that remains to be seen. I'll be interested to see how things shake out with the 3, both in production and service. I don't need to worry about making a decision until 2019 since I can't use the federal tax credit anyway.

I remember when Tesla tweaked the program and there were some GREAT deals as low as $32K but they disappeared immediately and have not been replaced despite several cars with nearly identical specs showing up later.
 
dgpcolorado said:
It seems time to let EVs stand on their own anyway.
Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
 
drees said:
Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".
 
dgpcolorado said:
drees said:
Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".

nope, gassers will continue to smoke unimpeded. The Oil industry is basically creating debt wherever its spawn is allowed to operate and we are paying for it and the bad part of it is we have been brainwashed into thinking that the only thing that matters is gas prices.

But reality is starting to sink in. Parts of Western WA has been hit with fees and surcharges to finance a light rail expansion that is desperately needed but is still years away from making an impact.

part of it the enormous cost of the project but a lot it is simply the realization that we are woefully underpaying for the privilege to drive on the roads. So we are paying for both future expansion and the hidden debt that has accumulated over the years.

Be prepared, the issue is coming to your neighborhood too!
 
dgpcolorado said:
drees said:
Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".
To continue to accelerate EV adoption, I'd like to see the incentives remain in place, regardless of what "dino fans" might say. When it comes to vehicle purchase decisions, money talks.

It does appear, though, that in the US the only politically sustainable way to replace ICE vehicles with EVs (short of exhausting all economically extractable fossil fuels) is to make EVs more compelling. This is why I so appreciate that Teslas are not just EVs, they are cool cars!
 
Some publicity, IS bad publicity...

Why this Tesla fan thinks the company is losing its way

AN EARLY ADOPTER OPINES ON ELON MUSK'S FUTURE


AUGUST 16, 2017

Call me an early adopter. I bought the 892nd Tesla roadster to come off the assembly line in 2010. There were problems. The motor had to be replaced three times.

So, what did I do? I bought a second Tesla, and then a third, both top-of-the-line Model S sedans.

We’re talking almost $400,000 worth of the sleek, futuristic automobiles. At first blush, given my experiences with the first model, you might think it odd I would come back for two more. I even encouraged my brother to buy two Tesla sedans.

It is also not out of the question I would buy a fourth Tesla, though under improved circumstances. I love the idea of the car -- but I’ve stopped loving the company.

The fact is this: Through hubris, loss of focus, or simply ignorance of its consumer mission, Tesla has lost its way...

I simply want Tesla to get it right and not to all but abandon early and loyal consumers. If they do, -- and in my experience they have -- this does not bode well for future purchasers, including those who order the lower-priced Model 3 sedans....
http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/tesla-losing-its-way
 
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