TSLA corporate outlook

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Via IEVS:
Tesla Reduces Price Of Model S, X 100D, P100D
http://insideevs.com/tesla-slashes-price-model-s-x-100d-p100d/

The automaker says it was able to achieve efficiencies on these high-line versions and is now passing on some modest discounts to buyers.

The price drop breakdown is detailed below:

  • Model S 100D price drops $3,500 from $97,500 to $94,000
    Model S P100D with Ludicrous sees $5,000 price reduction. Now starts at $135,000
    Tesla Model X 100D price cut of $3,500. Starts at $96,000
    Model X P100D with Ludicrous price slashed by $5,000. Starts at $140,000. . . .
 
GRA said:
Via IEVS:
Tesla Reduces Price Of Model S, X 100D, P100D
http://insideevs.com/tesla-slashes-price-model-s-x-100d-p100d/

The automaker says it was able to achieve efficiencies on these high-line versions and is now passing on some modest discounts to buyers.

The benevolence that emanates from Elon is overwhelming, isn't it? Couldn't be that sales are declining and the 2017
guidance (110K units) might not be achieved. Also, who cares if losses increase more, the shareholders are typically
indifferent to losses anyway.
 
Another month of mis-reporting by InsideEVs http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ on Tesla:

1. Tesla reported 1st half of 2017 sales at 47K. Using InsideEVs numbers and about 60% U.S., the InsideEVs data
indicated 1st half of 2017 at about 35K.
2. Using the latest InsideEVs data YTD U.S. numbers for both S & X and a 60% U.S. distribution, InsideEVs' estimate
for total WW YTD thru 8/2017 as about 45K. Using Tesla's data which indicates about an average run rate of about
8K per month for both S & X, the actual YTD total should be about 60K.

Bottom line: InsideEVs' data for tracking Tesla is unreliable!
 
Via ABG:
U.S. labor board files complaint against Tesla over worker rights
Workers have to sign an agreement not to publicly discuss their working conditions
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/01/nlrb-us-labor-board-files-complaint-tesla-worker-rights/

The U.S. agency in charge of enforcing labor law on Thursday filed a complaint against electric carmaker Tesla, saying it found merit to workers' complaints about unfair labor practices.

According to the National Labor Relations Board complaint, Tesla violated workers' rights by requiring them to sign a confidentiality agreement that could bar them from talking about their working conditions and safety issues at the company's facility in Fremont, Calif.

The agency also investigated charges by the workers that Tesla intimidated and harassed them and violated workers' rights under federal labor law.

Tesla has denied the allegations. It hired a new head of human resources in May to deal with its working-conditions controversy. Founder Elon Musk has said that he views unions as bad for Tesla and has accused the UAW and traditional automakers of conspiring against him. He has disputed allegations of poor working conditions. But he has also warned of "at least six months of manufacturing hell" as production of the Model 3 ramps up.

The company must respond to the charges by Sept. 14. The NLRB has scheduled a hearing for Nov. 14 before an administrative law judge in Oakland. . . .

The workers said Tesla made them sign a document that they may face termination or criminal prosecution for speaking publicly, or to the media, about anything they observed at work or their working conditions, NLRB said.
If such a document exists, Tesla's going to lose this one (and deserves to).
 
GRA said:
Via ABG:
U.S. labor board files complaint against Tesla over worker rights
Workers have to sign an agreement not to publicly discuss their working conditions
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/01/nlrb-us-labor-board-files-complaint-tesla-worker-rights/

The U.S. agency in charge of enforcing labor law on Thursday filed a complaint against electric carmaker Tesla, saying it found merit to workers' complaints about unfair labor practices.

According to the National Labor Relations Board complaint, Tesla violated workers' rights by requiring them to sign a confidentiality agreement that could bar them from talking about their working conditions and safety issues at the company's facility in Fremont, Calif.

The agency also investigated charges by the workers that Tesla intimidated and harassed them and violated workers' rights under federal labor law.

Tesla has denied the allegations. It hired a new head of human resources in May to deal with its working-conditions controversy. Founder Elon Musk has said that he views unions as bad for Tesla and has accused the UAW and traditional automakers of conspiring against him. He has disputed allegations of poor working conditions. But he has also warned of "at least six months of manufacturing hell" as production of the Model 3 ramps up.

The company must respond to the charges by Sept. 14. The NLRB has scheduled a hearing for Nov. 14 before an administrative law judge in Oakland. . . .

The workers said Tesla made them sign a document that they may face termination or criminal prosecution for speaking publicly, or to the media, about anything they observed at work or their working conditions, NLRB said.
If such a document exists, Tesla's going to lose this one (and deserves to).

Agreed.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Is it any wonder just about everyone has moved manufacturing to China.
Yes, saves them the cost of paper they don't need to have their employees sign - they just fire them and/or have them arrested/beaten up without all the hassle, and no need to worry about safety, 8 hour days/forty hour weeks with overtime pay for anything beyond that, limited mandatory overtime, having to allow for and pay vacations, holidays, sick leave, health care, disability insurance or any other of those pesky quality-of-life issues. Why, the west simply hasn't been able to compete ever since mine owners could no longer employ children as young as five, 10 or more hours a day. Oh, the decadence . . .

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/10/kids-coal-mines-lewis-hines-photos/
Note, the above was in the U.S. in the 20th century, not the U.K. 100 years previously, when even younger children worked longer hours in worse conditions: https://museum.wales/2191/

Then there was the 1911 Triangle shirtwaist factory fire, which killed 146: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_Shirtwaist_Factory_fire

In addition to China, among others Bangladesh has managed to keep garment factory safety standards at a more reasonable, century-old level, and it's no wonder that Walmart has moved much of their production to such countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Dhaka_fire

even if the confirmed death toll was only 117 - I'm sure they can manage to beat our record if they try a little harder.
 
Via IEVS:
In Attempt To Boost Sales, Tesla Offers Up To $30,000 Discount On Inventory S/X, 0.99% APR
http://insideevs.com/in-attempt-to-boost-sales-tesla-offers-30000-discount-0-99-apr/

Tesla is attempting to boost end-of-quarter sales with such deals as $30,000 off select inventory vehicles and 0.99% APR.
In typical Tesla fashion, the automaker is attempting a last-minute push to get sales on target for Q3 2017.

This time around, Tesla is offering some very enticing deals, which leads us to believe one of two things:

that the Model 3 is indeed maybe cutting into Model S/X sales in the United States, or, at the very least that production of the 3 has made it more difficult for Tesla to deliver custom order Model S/X cars in this quarter before September 30th.

Since most Model 3 orders won’t be delivered anytime soon and especially not by the end of the quarter, Tesla is likely feeling the heat of expectations as the quarter comes to a close (end of September).

The automaker is stepping up its incentives to buy certain models with deals we’ve never seen before. AmpedRealtor posted this email outlining the deals from a Tesla sales associate over on the Tesla Motors Club Forum:

"Hi [AmpedRealtor],

I hope this email finds you well.

I’m reaching out because we just announced an incentive on Model S and Model X P100D that I thought you may be interested in.

We are offering showroom incentives up to $30,000 off the original configuration price. This means you can lease Model S P100D for $1,500/month and Model X P100D for $1,600/month with 10,000 miles per year. Alternatively we are offering .99% APR financing or a cash purchase with the discount. These incentives are available for deliveries by September 30th 2017.

Lastly, we’ve reintroduced the Tesla Referral Program. You will receive a $1,000 credit towards the purchase of either a new Model S or Model X and Free Unlimited Supercharging. <snip>"

The up to $30,000 deal applies only to inventory Teslas (maybe only demo cars) and only the highest end versions, those being the Model S P100D and Model X P100D. We should point out that the wording specifically says “up to” $30,000 off. We assume the max discount would only apply to demo cars with higher mileage (a few thousand miles or so). . . .
 
Via ABG:
Tesla extends the range of cars to help owners escape Irma
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/09/tesla-extends-range-hurricane-irma/

Free OTA update applies to "60 kWh" Model S/X that are really "75s". Temporary only and the SC network in Florida is still functioning, but a terrific move from the PR standpoint. Now that's how you build customer loyalty and get lots of positive word of mouth advertising, even if relatively few need it.
 
GRA said:
Via ABG:
Tesla extends the range of cars to help owners escape Irma
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/09/tesla-extends-range-hurricane-irma/

Free OTA update applies to "60 kWh" Model S/X that are really "75s". Temporary only and the SC network in Florida is still functioning, but a terrific move from the PR standpoint. Now that's how you build customer loyalty and get lots of positive word of mouth advertising, even if relatively few need it.

this is awesome!
 
Via Bloomberg:
NTSB Staff to Say Tesla Autopilot Should Share Blame for 2016 Crash
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/tesla-autopilot-said-by-ntsb-staff-to-share-blame-for-2016-crash

The investigative staff of U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, in its first probe of the wave of autonomous driving systems being introduced by carmakers, has recommended that Tesla’s Autopilot system be declared a contributing factor in the crash because it allowed the driver to go for long periods without steering or apparently even looking at the road, according to a person briefed on the findings. . . .

The NTSB is meeting Tuesday to issue its final findings on the crash and the conclusions are subject to revision by its board members. The staff has recommended a finding that Tesla’s automation allowed Joshua Brown to effectively let the car drive itself even though the manufacturer had warned customers they weren’t allowed to do so, the person said. . . .

A class-action suit was filed against Tesla in April alleging that the Autopilot software is “dangerously defective” when engaged. The cars sometimes veer out of lanes, jam on the brakes for no reason or fail to stop when approaching other vehicles, the suit filed in California claimed.

Tesla responded that it never claimed its vehicles are equipped with “full self-driving capability," said the suit misrepresented facts and called the action “a disingenuous attempt to secure attorney’s fees.”
I will provide a link to the NTSB findings tomorrow if no one else does first.

In related news. via ABG:
Family of Tesla driver killed in 'Autopilot' crash does not blame car
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/09/11/tesla-autopilot-crash-family-driver-killed-does-not-blame-car/

WASHINGTON —The family of the driver of a Tesla Model S who was killed in a May 2016 crash while using the car's semi-autonomous driving system said on Monday the car was not to blame for the crash.

The statement from the family of Joshua Brown, released by a law firm, comes a day before the National Transportation Safety Board is set to hold a hearing in Washington and vote on the probable cause of the crash.

"We heard numerous times that the car killed our son. That is simply not the case," said the statement from the family, breaking its silence on the crash. "There was a small window of time when neither Joshua nor the Tesla features noticed the truck making the left-hand turn in front of the car."

"People die every day in car accidents," the statement said. "Change always comes with risks, and zero tolerance for deaths would totally stop innovation and improvements."

A spokeswoman for Tesla and a lawyer for the family, Jack Landskroner, have declined to say if the automaker has reached a legal settlement with the Brown family. . . .
I think we can guess the answer to that question.
 
NTSB press release can be found here:https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/PR20170912.aspx

The National Transportation Safety Board determined Tuesday that a truck driver’s failure to yield the right of way and a car driver’s inattention due to overreliance on vehicle automation are the probable cause of the fatal May 7, 2016, crash near Williston, Florida.

The NTSB also determined the operational design of the Tesla’s vehicle automation permitted the car driver’s overreliance on the automation, noting its design allowed prolonged disengagement from the driving task and enabled the driver to use it in ways inconsistent with manufacturer guidance and warnings.

As a result of its investigation the NTSB issued seven new safety recommendations and reiterated two previously issued safety recommendations. . . .
Pretty much as expected. I've posted more extended excerpts in the "Tesla's Autopilot, on the Road" topic: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=22213&p=505044#p505044

Reuters article, quoting the closing statement of the head of the NTSB:
“System safeguards were lacking,” NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt said. “Tesla allowed the driver to use the system outside of the environment for which it was designed and the system gave far too much leeway to the driver to divert his attention. The result was a collision that should not have happened. System safeguards were lacking.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autopilot/system-safeguards-lacking-in-tesla-crash-on-autopilot-ntsb-idUSKCN1BN1QP
 
RegGuheert said:
Tesla has stated that they will source all of their cobalt from North America, but that seems extremely unlikely if they come anywhere close to their Model 3 production goals:
TechCrunch said:
So where does that leave us with Tesla? Elon Musk ambitiously aims at producing 500,000 electric vehicles a year by 2018, and Tesla has repeatedly stated that the cobalt will be sourced exclusively in North America. Whether this is a realistic assumption is a different story.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) states that cobalt production in 2015 was 124,000 metric tons. Canada and the U.S. together produce roughly 4 percent of the world’s supply, nowhere near Tesla’s needs for just one of its models. Indeed, estimations from InvestorIntel show that half a million units of Tesla’s Model 3 would be equivalent to 7,800 tons of new cobalt demand, or roughly 6 percent of the annual cobalt production worldwide. The math does not seem to add up. Tesla reportedly has difficulties securing off-take agreements from traditional cathode material suppliers and is reaching down to junior miners.

Precisely regarding the juniors’ landscape, eCobalt Solutions Inc. (formerly Formation Metals) (TSX:ECS) is a Canadian mineral exploration and mine development company primarily owning the Idaho cobalt project, a high-grade and primary cobalt deposit in the U.S.. The highly anticipated project is by far the most advanced one in the region and should go online in a year’s time. Two more years will be needed to run at full capacity. Production is estimated to reach roughly 1,500 tons annually over the course of a 12.5-year lifetime, i.e. about 1 percent of the global market. Compare this to Tesla’s needs for the Model 3 and the new supply of cobalt in North America looks muted at best.

M3s at final test without batteries? What's the latest 2018 production schedule?
 
While it is foolish, IMO, to try to predict when and how any investment bubble will end, the analysis below points out just how exceptionally bizzare TSLA's short life as a public company has been, and the perilous path to profitability presented by the model 3 roll-out..

Bernstein predicts Tesla shares will plunge as it nears an unprecedented $10 billion cash burn

"Tesla's persistent cash burn has been a major investor controversy … In fact, Tesla may be the largest public company in history to have never generated either positive annual cash flow or positive annual profit," analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. "Even if we can disregard Tesla's cash burn, we continue to worry about the company's ability to deliver upon its long-term vision of profitability. Specifically, we worry about whether Tesla can successfully build the mass-market Model 3: (1) with good gross margins, (2) with good quality, and (3) on time."...

He estimates Tesla will burn through $4.7 billion of cash this year reaching a total $10.6 billion of cash burn as a public company by the end of 2017, which is unprecedented for a nearly $60 billion market cap company.

In comparison, he cited how Amazon burned $1.1 billion of cash over three years and was generating billions of dollars of cash when it reached a $60 billion valuation. Costco burned through $1.9 billion of cash over eight years, but its value topped out at roughly $15 billion during the time period, according to the analyst.

"We believe the essential issue with Tesla's stock is not how much cash the company burns right now, but rather how well the company can execute upon its Model 3 launch – specifically around gross margins - and demonstrate that it has a clear path to long-term profitability,"...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/bernstein-predicts-tesla-plunge-as-it-nears-unprecedented-cash-burn.html
 
^ If GM had been building a DCFC network instead of buying back stock I'd probably be buying a Bolt now, in spite of the crappy seats. Instead I'll wait for Tesla.
 
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