I agree that the window of opportunity is closing in the U.S. for H2/FCEV passenger cars, and sent CAFCP an email saying as much when the Long-range Model 3's specs were released - they have to step up the pace of station openings as well as provide access to more destinations, and get the price of H2 and FCEVs down, and the performance of the latter up. I expect there's another two or three years before the window shuts completely.DarthPuppy said:
It'as about an 18.5% increase YoY, which is pretty similar to the numbers that IEVS trumpets for BEVs. To that number you'd need to add the 432 YTD for the Clarity FCEV to get a more accurate figure for how the FCEV market in California has grown. There were only 8 Claritys delivered in December of last year, so the numbers look like 1,192/649 = 83.7% increase YoY, although there are a few Hyundai Tucsons in addition last year that would decrease that.smkettner said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
GRA said:
I think they need to do both. To expand sales they need to build more stations for routine use where people live, but it's also critical they expand coverage to many more destinations throughout the state so people don't find themselves limited to a $60k commuter car. I've told them so, but the next round of funding is almost entirely local stations - only the additional I-5 connector station in Santa Nella (to provide backup/extra capacity for Harris Ranch) has much to do with improving long distance travel, although the two extra stations in the Sacramento area will improve capacity on I-80 and U.S. 50 between the Bay Area and Tahoe.Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Right.Zythryn said:
Yet. Whether it will ever be cost-effective to do so is the question, not whether it's technically feasible - the Japanese are already running some dem/val level experiments, and those and others have been linked to in the H2 and Fuel Cells thread in the past..Zythryn said:
Equipment for H2 FCV refueling installed: US$250,000.00GRA said:
Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park said:
It is very ugly, but for a lease I would do it just because I'd be the only person I've ever met with one.GlennD said:
In California there are so many 4th Gen PriusGlennD said:
running around that we've been desensitized to the Mirai's ugliness :lol: . As noted elsewhere, in ascending order of ugliness I rate them Prime, Mirai and then regular Prius, although there's not a lot to choose between the last two. But the Clarity's better looking than the Mirai (not by much, IMO), as well as being a better car and offering better value for the money in almost every way.As no one was suggesting that this was going to be a cost-effective option anytime soon (if ever), Zythryn and I have no disagreement. After all, sustainable H2 first has to be cost-competitive with fossil fuels when it's produced on an industrial scale at central facilities - if they can't do that, then there's no hope of it ever moving beyond that to production at individual home sites. They're still a long way away from achieving the former in the U.S., although in Europe where fossil fuels are taxed at much higher levels they're getting pretty close - they may even be there in one or two countries with lots of excess renewables. But as usual, discussion of such is OT here, and belongs in the H2 and FCEV thread where it's already been done to death.RegGuheert said:
You could have said the same thing about Toyota 20 years ago with HEVs. They play a longer game than most American companies, and unlike the claims of many have always pursued battery development in parallel with FCEVs. They do seem to be just a few years away from introducing solid-state batteries, which is the sort of breakthrough they think it will take to make BEVs mainstream.EatsShootsandLeafs said:
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/toyota/mirai/2016/2016-toyota-mirai-review-long-term-verdict/
As has been noted many, many times, PEV energy costs are as many pennies per mile as the cost of electricity divided by the miles/kWh (including charge/discharge efficiency). If you've got charging at home at low utility rates, great. If you don't and have to charge at for-profit public chargers, boo, it costs more than fossil fuel. H2, of course, remains far too expensive for now without subsidies compared to either gas/diesel or electricity, in the U.S. and most other countries. Unlike MT, people who buy or lease FCEVs do get subsidized H2 for three years, and most of them (85% of Mirais) are smart enough to realize that only leasing makes sense now, when the future price of H2 beyond three years is unknown. OTOH, the average household income of Mirai owners is $175k, so maybe the people who bought them don't much care about the future price of H2.TonyWilliams said:
Oddly enough, lots of governments and companies around the world disagree that we've gone as far as we can on cost reductions, which is why so much money is being spent on research intended to reduce costs in all three areas. I do agree that there seems to be little room for cost reductions as far as PEV charging, and the only likely way to make for-profit charging equal or less expensive than fossil fuels is to let the utilities do it directly.TonyWilliams said:
A minimal additional increment, compared to the balance.TonyWilliams said:
I agree that the masses do care, which is why almost seven years after the introduction of mass-produced PEVs they still need to be bribed to buy or lease them. Other than the Tesla Model S/X, which definitely fall into the 'don't care how much it costs' camp, and have compelling performance in their own right. As it is, most forecasts are predicting TCO and initial cost comparability for BEVs with ICEs won't occur until about 2025, so there's still a ways to go there. What remains to be seen is how much and how quickly H2/FCEVs may also reduce their prices in this period - at the moment most estimates are that they won't reach cost comparability with ICEs until 2030 or so. But as always, "It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future." (I won't attempt to attribute this to anyone in particular, although current research finds the earliest written mention so far in a Danish book from 1948).TonyWilliams said:
GRA said:
