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Via GCC;
Toyota looking for principal engineer for power electronics for heavy-duty fuel cell powertrains
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170713-toyota.html

. . . In April, Toyota revealed “Project Portal”—a hydrogen fuel cell system designed for heavy-duty trucks applied in a Class 8 truck for use at the Port of Los Angeles (POLA). (Earlier post.) . . .

Job functions will include:

  • Developing an optimized power management system based on the truck duty cycle power equipment;

    Optimizing battery in and out energy management;

    Enhancing fuel cell power draw;

    Managing the traction motor control strategy;

    Developing the regenerative energy recovery strategy and the execution system;

    Contributing to the overall strategy for system design and implementation; and

    Providing technical mentoring of the engineering team assigned to the program.
 
Via GCC:
AC Transit’s fuel cell bus breaks 25,000 hour operating record; demonstrating potential to meet diesel life cycle expectancy
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170714-act.html

. . . Just two years ago, the FCEB power plant set an international record for 20,000 hours of continuous operation. AC Transit says that with each accomplishment, it has advanced alternative fuel vehicles by both proving the durability of hydrogen fuel cell in daily revenue service and remaining at least one year ahead of federal recommendations.

The US Department of Energy and Federal Transit Administration established performance metrics and life expectancy for FCEBs. Traditionally, a public transit buses life expectancy is measured in terms of the number of miles on its diesel engine. A diesel engine’s life expectancy is 6 years or 250,000 miles before overhaul. The life expectancy of the fuel cell power plant is measured in terms of hours. Once AC Transit’s FCEB #7 recorded its 25,000-hour milestone, it demonstrated the potential for fuel cells to meet the equivalent life cycle expectancy similar to a diesel engine.

  • The fuel cell manufacturer expected the onboard power plant to operate just 4,000 hours. But we’ve created a team of maintenance professionals who have been industry leaders in FCEB and Zero Emission Bus (ZEB) technology; proving FCEBs are a dramatic leap forward in meeting the Advanced Clean Transit Regulations target of operating all zero-emission buses by the year 2040.

    —AC Transit Board Director Chris Peeples. . . .
To better demonstrate AC Transit’s work in the proactive use of zero-emission buses for daily revenue service, a FCEB traveled to Reno, Nevada in support of the APTA 2017 Bus & Paratransit Conference. While the Bay Area has a variety of microclimates and terrains, generally the weather is mild and hilly topography is gradual. So after 16 years of continuous operation in these conditions, Reno was an opportunity to test the FCEB’s durability in inclement weather and steeper terrain.

As a result, one of the 13 fuel cell buses drove 224 consecutive miles (360 km). The FCEB traveled, virtually nonstop, in rain and snow flurries. Perhaps the FCEB’s most impressive accomplishment was its ability to climb the 7057 foot Donner Pass. The FCEB averaged 10.91 miles per gallon and completed the Reno drive in just over five hours.
 
Via GCC:
Bus operators in Germany, Italy to procure 63 fuel cell buses; larger refueling stations
15 July 2017
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170715-jive.html

Bus operators from Germany and South Tyrol, Italy are partnering to procure 63 fuel cell buses for their public transport systems as part of the EU-funded JIVE project (€106 million total cost, with €32 million coming from the EU). (Earlier post.) The project is also testing new hydrogen refueling stations capable of serving fleets of more than 20 buses. This will both reduce the cost of hydrogen, as well as test the system’s capacity to offer reliability at the required commercialization level—greater than 99%.

JIVE (Joint Initiative for hydrogen Vehicles across Europe) is an EU-funded project aiming to deploy 139 new zero emission fuel cell buses across nine cities, the first deployment of this scale in Europe. Despite the project being only a few months old, the placing of 63 new buses means that the project’s aim of more than doubling the number of zero emissions buses operating in Europe is well underway. . . .
See earlier post: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&start=30#p495942
 
Via GCC:
Ballard to supply 5 fuel cell systems for buses to SunLine Transit Agency
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170718-ballard.html

Ballard Power Systems has received an order from SunLine Transit Agency for five FCveloCity fuel cell systems to power hydrogen fuel cell buses in Palm Desert, California. The 150 kW systems are expected to be shipped in 2017. . . .

SunLine Transit Agency received funding from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to purchase and deploy 5 hydrogen electric fuel cell buses. This will double SunLine‘s current fleet of fuel cell buses and allow it to offer expanded transit service in the Coachella Valley area of Southern California.

The buses will use the previously deployed American Fuel Cell Bus (AFCB) configuration, first introduced with SunLine Transit Agency in 2011. The AFCB configuration utilizes Ballard’s heavy duty fuel cell system to provide primary power, in combination with BAE Systems’ electric propulsion and power management systems deployed in an ENC 40-foot (12-meter) Axess model transit bus. There are currently 13 AFCBs deployed with various transit agencies across North America, with another 10 on order including these 5 for SunLine. . . .
 
Via GCC:
China Yuchai delivers 76 diesel-electric plug-in hybrid buses to Shenzhen
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170727-yuchai.html

. . . This is the second large order from Siweimei since its purchase of 110 units at the end of 2016.

The diesel-electric hybrid system used in the buses consists of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company’s (GYMCL’s) YC6A270-50 7.26-liter diesel engine compliant with China’s National V Emission Standards, and a plug-in charging battery.

Siweimei provides private group transport including for tourism operations and was designated as the preferred transporter for the XIX International Botanical Congress presently being held in Shenzhen City. The 76 buses powered by GYMCL’s YC6A270-50 engines are being utilized for the conference. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Daimler starts production of FUSO eCanter in Europe; first series all-electric light-duty truck
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170728-daimler.html

. . . Only the electric-powertrain specific components will be installed in specific boxes along the production line. The vehicles coming from Tramagal, Portugal will be handed over to customers within Europe and the US within the next month. In May, MFTBC already announced its first commercial customer in the Japanese market: Seven-Eleven Co., Ltd. will be operating 25 units of the new eCanter in their fleet within this year. Production of the eCanter in Japan started on 7 July. . . .

The eCanter has a range of 100 kilometers (62 miles) and a load capacity of two to three tons, depending on body and usage. The vehicle’s electric powertrain contains six high voltage lithium ion battery packs with 420 V and 13.8 kWh each.

The battery packs are being delivered from the 100% Daimler subsidiary Accumotive in Kamenz, Germany.

The Fuso eCanter benefits from extensive experience of customer trials conducted in Portugal and Germany with the pre-series between 2014 and 2017. In comparison with a conventional diesel truck, it offers savings up to €1,000 per 10,000 kilometers on operating costs. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Seven-Eleven Japan and Toyota introducing fuel cell trucks and fuel cell power generators for studies on CO2 reduction
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/08/20170809-toyota.html

Seven-Eleven Japan Co., Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corporation have concluded a basic agreement for studies on energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction in convenience store distribution and operation. The two companies aim to contribute to the realization of a low-carbon and hydrogen-based society in the future, by way of introducing vehicles and power generators to be newly developed by Toyota that use hydrogen.

Fuel cell trucks, in which the refrigeration/freezer unit, and the truck itself, are powered by fuel cells, will be introduced as refrigerator/freezer trucks for stores with the goal of reducing CO2 emissions.

For the stores, an energy management system, combining already-installed solar power generators [GRA: with] hydrogen systems will be introduced to enable greater energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction. . . .

Also GCC:
Hexagon Composites completes development and initial delivery of H2 storage tanks for Toyota heavy-duty fuel cell truck
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/08/20170809-hexagon.html
 
Via GCC:
Ballard-powered fuel cell electric bus achieves 25,000 hours of revenue operation
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/08/20170830-ballard.html

Ballard Power Systems announced that a fuel cell electric bus powered by Ballard’s FCveloCity-HD6 fuel cells has achieved a new durability record with more than 25,000 hours of revenue service. This is equivalent to operating a bus on a 14-hour daily schedule, 5-days per week for 6.9 years with no significant maintenance to the fuel cell stack, a core engine component.

The bus—and several others nearing the 25,000-hour operating threshold—are part of a Transport for London fleet of 8 fuel cell buses, all powered by Ballard FCveloCity engines. These buses, originally funded under the Clean Hydrogen in European Cities (CHIC) fuel cell bus program, have been carrying paying passengers on London’s Tower Gateway route since 2010. . . .

Fuel cell electric buses manufactured and integrated by Ballard’s partners and equipped with Ballard FCveloCity engines typically offer a host of important attributes, including:

  • 400 kilometer (250 mile) range between refuelings;

    Rapid refueling, typically about 7 minutes;

    Improved fuel economy compared to diesel buses (1.5x) and CNG buses (more than 2x);

    Route flexibility, with no need for en-route recharging, such as overhead catenary wiring; and

    Reduced noise and smoother ride for improved passenger riding experience. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Van Hool consortium to deploy first hydrogen bus route in France; green hydrogen for bus rapid transit
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170901-vanhool.html

. . . François Bayrou, President of the community of Pau Béarn Pyrénées, made the announcement about the creation of this “zero emission” bus rapid transit (BRT) route, which will be operated . . . starting in September 2019 between the hospital and the railway station in Pau.

Fueled by hydrogen from renewable sources (“green hydrogen”), eight 18-meter articulated buses from the Bus Rapid Transit service line (BHNS) will be operating on the streets of Pau within two years. The buses will form an artery of the new transportation network designed by the City within its urban redevelopment project aimed at improving the perception and use of public spaces in a sustainable way.

The hydrogen hybrid buses feature a passenger capacity of 125; long driving range (350 km / 217 miles); and rapid refueling (10 minutes). These attributes provide them, amid the various zero-emission bus technology options, with the highest level of operational flexibility and productivity for a bus operator. . . .

The bus will be designed and manufactured by Van Hool, the European manufacturer with the most expertise in hydrogen mobility with more than 50 fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) hydrogen buses already in operation. Van Hool is developing, from its electric platform, an articulated 18-meter fuel cell bus model for the needs of this BRT(BHNS) line. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Capstone completes track testing of Kenworth microturbine-powered hybrid electric Class 7 truck
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170907-capstone.html

Capstone Turbine Corporation successfully completed track testing of a Kenworth Class 7 hybrid electric work truck using its 65kW microturbine as an on-board range extender. (Earlier post.) The successful track testing confirmed both high-speed performance as well as operation on 20% grades.

The Kenworth Class 7 work truck features a Capstone C65 microturbine that is installed onboard and operates on compressed natural gas. The microturbine acts as a range extender to charge an onboard 47 kWh Li-Ion battery pack, which in turn provides power to the electric traction motors that propel the truck.

The joint development program with Kenworth Truck Company is funded in part by the South Coast Air Quality Management District and San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. . . .

Also GCC:
DOE to issue funding opportunity for medium/heavy-duty, on-road natural gas engine research and development
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170912-vto.html

. . . VTO is seeking to address barriers to adoption of natural gas vehicles through early-stage research on medium- and heavy-duty on-road engine technologies. The goal is to enable natural gas engines that can cost-effectively achieve diesel-like efficiency while meeting current and future emissions standards. Through this notice, VTO is making interested parties aware of plans to release a funding opportunity announcement in the near-term. . . .

Also GCC:
Ford Transit plug-in series hybrid van makes it debut in UK; 1.0L EcoBoost range extender
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170906-ford.html

Ford’s new plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) Transit Custom van (earlier post) made its debut at the Cenex Low Carbon Vehicle 2017 event in Millbrook, UK. The vehicle makes its first appearance as Ford prepares 20 PHEV Transits for the 12-month fleet customer trial in London that begins in late 2017.

Scheduled for volume production in 2019, the Transit Custom PHEV has an advanced series hybrid system that targets a zero-emission range exceeding 50 kilometers (31 miles), and features the multi-award winning Ford EcoBoost 1.0-liter gasoline engine as a range extender. . . .

Commercial vehicles in London make 280,000 journeys on a typical weekday, traveling a total distance of 8 million miles (13 million kilometers). Vans represent 75% of peak freight traffic, with more than 7,000 vehicles per hour driving at peak times in Central London alone.

The London fleet trial project is supported by Transport for London, and features a cross-section of city-based businesses, including Metropolitan Police, that will integrate the vans into their day-to-day operations. To help understand how the benefits of electrified vehicles could be maximised, the 20 PHEV Transits will use an advanced telematics system to collect real-time data on the vans’ performance.

In addition, the vehicles will feature geofencing technology, which is capable of automatically modifying vehicle settings based on each van’s current location. This could be used, for example, to ensure the hybrid system is switched to electric-only mode when a vehicle enters a low-emission zone within an inner-city area. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Lightning Systems and New Eagle unveil battery-electric upfit system for Ford Transit passenger wagon, van, cutaway, chassis cab models
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170913-lightning.html

. . . The new LightningElectric zero-emissions package is available for Ford Transit as part of Ford’s eQVM program. The product will be available first on heavy-duty Transits with a 10,360-pound gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) and will go on sale in early 2018. Conversions and service are performed by Ford QVM-certified upfitters and dealers around the world.

Depending on battery option and drive cycle, LightningElectric will have an electric range of up to 125 miles, and a payload capacity of up to 3,500 pounds. Ford Motor Company’s vehicle warranty covers vehicles with the LightningElectric upfit, and Ford Motor Credit financing is available.

Installation can be completed in just hours by certified installers. Featuring a volume-production ready high-voltage lithium battery pack, LightningElectric will accommodate full charging overnight with Level 1 and less than three hours for Level 2 charging. . . .
There's a spec sheet.
 
Via GCC:
Daimler begins deliveries of electric FUSO eCanter; UPS first commercial customer; NGO fleets
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170915-ecanter.html

]quote] . . .The FUSO eCanter has a range of 100 kilometers and a load capacity up to three and a half tons—depending on body and usage. The vehicle’s electric powertrain contains six high voltage lithium-ion battery packs with 420 V and 13.8 kWh each. . . .

In comparison with a conventional diesel truck, it offers savings up to €1,000 (US$1,181) per 10,000 kilometers (6,214 miles) on operating costs.[/quote]
Range seems a bit short given all the usual caveats, but it is intended for local P&D so maybe adequate.

Also GCC:
China Yuchai delivers 100 new energy buses equipped with Yuchai’s YC6J diesel-electric hybrid system
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170909-yuchai.html

China Yuchai International, a leading manufacturer and distributor of engines for on-and off-road applications in China through its main operating subsidiary, Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Limited, delivered 100 new energy buses equipped with Yuchai’s YC6J diesel-electric hybrid system have been delivered to Wuzhou Zhenbao Bus Co., Ltd. . . .
 
Via GCC:
USDOT awarding $55M to support purchase of Low-No buses; electric buses and infrastructure
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170917-dot.html

The US Department of Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration (FTA) announced $55 million in grant selections through the Low or No Emission (Low-No) Vehicle program, which funds the development of transit buses and infrastructure that use advanced fuel technologies. Fifty-one projects in 39 states will receive a share of the funding. The vast majority of the funded projects are for battery-electric buses and infrastructure; two projects are receiving a total of $3.2 million for hydrogen fuel cell buses.

Eligible projects included those that replace, rehabilitate, lease, and purchase buses and related equipment as well as projects to purchase, rehabilitate, construct or lease bus-related facilities, such as buildings for bus storage and maintenance. Projects can also include workforce development components to train the next generation of transit employees. . . .

Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit will receive funding [GRA: $1,450,000] to purchase New Flyer 60' zero-emission fuel cell electric buses with supporting hydrogen infrastructure. This project will be the first commercial deployment of articulated fuel cell buses in the US. CUMTD will produce hydrogen on-site partially from renewable sources. . . .

The Stark Area Regional Transit Authority will receive funding [GRA: $1,750,000] to purchase zero-emission hydrogen fuel cell transit buses sourced directly from ElDorado, supporting a significant leap toward cost-reducing economies of scale and commercialization of the American Fuel Cell Bus. . . .
 
Via GCC:
Wärtsilä introducing portfolio of hybrid tug designs
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170918-wartsila.html

. . . Since they typically operate in or close to harbors and populated areas, tugs are particularly affected by environmental considerations, and the need for regulatory compliance is an increasing concern for tug owners and operators worldwide.

Wärtsilä has already introduced tug designs featuring liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel technology as an efficient means for complying with environmental legislation. These latest designs have been developed utilizing Wärtsilä’s strong competences in hybrid propulsion technology, along with the company’s extensive experience with more than 1,000 tugs built based on Wärtsilä’s ship designs.

The recently introduced Wärtsilä HY hybrid propulsion solution forms the basis of the new designs, the benefits of which include the flexibility and efficiency provided by the technology. Notably, the enhanced efficiency enables the total installed main engine power to be less than with conventional designs.

Using less engine power also decreases exhaust emission levels and, therefore, the environmental impact. It also reduces the fuel bill and lessens the amount of engine maintenance needed, which again adds to the cost savings. . . .
 
Nikola and Bosch partner on hydrogen-electric Class-8 long-haul truck; dual-motor commercial-vehicle eAxle
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170919-nikola.html

By 2021, Nikola intends to bring to market the Nikola One and Two, a class 8 hydrogen-electric truck lineup that will deliver more than 1,000 horsepower and 2,000 lb-ft (2,712 N·m) of torque—nearly double the horsepower of any semi-truck on the road—all with zero tailpipe emissions, as previously announced by Nikola. . . .

At the heart of the Nikola truck lineup is a new commercial vehicle powertrain achieved thanks to a development partnership between Nikola and Bosch. . . .

The eAxle developed by Bosch is a scalable, modular platform with the motor, power electronics and transmission in one compact unit. This makes it suitable for vehicles of all kinds, from small passenger cars to light trucks. Nikola and Bosch will use this know-how to commercialize the world’s first true dual-motor commercial-vehicle eAxle for a long-haul truck. . . .

The eAxles will be paired with a custom-designed fuel cell system—also being developed jointly between Nikola and Bosch—designed to deliver benchmark vehicle range. The overall vehicle controls will also be jointly developed based upon Bosch’s vehicle control software and hardware.
. . .
Nikola's announced goals (see upthread) strike me as pie in the sky, but partnering with Bosch adds some credibility.
 
Via IEVS:
VW And Navistar Team Up For Medium-Duty Electric Truck – Launches 2019
https://insideevs.com/volkswagen-an...medium-duty-electric-truck-to-launch-in-2019/

. . . Navistar plans to introduce the truck in late 2019 or early 2020, with the target market for the vehicle to be the U.S. and Canada. The Class 6 or 7 etruck is aimed city delivery customers and will have a range of just over 110 miles (180 km) with a payload of about 18 tons.

Troy A. Clarke, chairman, president and chief executive officer, Navistar said:

“Our alliance with Volkswagen Truck & Bus is allowing us to move much more quickly into electric propulsion thanks to our ability to leverage their technology investments and components in segments of the market where we’re already a leader. We believe the Class 6/7 vehicle is ideal for electric powertrain solutions in the near term, given its abundance of packaging space, and that these vehicles typically run short distances and can depot to recharge at the end of the day. . . .”
 
Via GCC:
Final design of first autonomous and fully electric container vessel revealed; model testing at SINTEF Ocean
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170930-yara.html

A six-meter, 2.4-ton model of the final design of the autonomous and fully electric container vessel Yara Birkeland (earlier post) was revealed as testing commenced at SINTEF Ocean’s 80-meter test tank facility in Trondheim. . . .

As announced in May, Yara and Kongsberg have partnered to build the world’s first autonomous and fully electric container vessel. Yara Birkeland . . . will enable a reduction of 40,000 road journey’s from Yara’s Porsgrunn fertilizer plant in southern Norway to the ports of Brevik and Larvik, significantly reducing local NOx and CO2 emissions produced by haulage trucks. The vessel will be delivered and begin first tests and operations early 2019, and conduct fully autonomous operations in 2020.

The Yara Birkeland is a 120 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) open-top container ship. It will be a fully battery-powered solution, prepared for remote control and autonomous operation.

The final design is spec’d (although this may change slightly as work progresses) with a 7.5-9 MWh battery pack, with two Azimuth pods and two tunnel thrusters. Proximity sensors include radar, LiDAR, AIS, camera and IR camera.

Loading and unloading will be done automatically using electric cranes and equipment. The ship will not have ballast tanks, but will use the battery pack as permanent ballast.

The ship will also be equipped with an automatic mooring system—berthing and unberthing will be done without human intervention, and will not require special implementations dock-side.

The autonomous ship will sail within 12 nautical miles from the coast between 3 ports in southern Norway. The whole area is completely covered by the The Norwegian Coastal Administrations’ VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) system at Brevik.

For the first phase of the project a containerized bridge with crew facilities will be implemented. When the ship is ready for autonomous operation this module will be lifted off. . . .
 
McKinsey:
What’s sparking electric-vehicle adoption in the truck industry?
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...34&hdpid=fb1b0a28-a070-4013-b2b8-91d421cb3623

We believe the time for this technology is ripe and that three drivers will support the eTruck market through 2030. First, based on total cost of ownership (TCO), these trucks could be on par with diesels and alternative powertrains in the relative near term. Second, robust electric-vehicle (EV) technology and infrastructure is becoming increasingly cost competitive and available. Third, adoption is being enabled by the regulatory environment, including country-level emission regulations (for example, potential carbon dioxide fleet targets) and local access policies (for example, emission-free zones). At the same time, barriers to eTruck adoption exist: new vehicles must be proved to be reliable, consumers need to be educated, and employees, dealers, and customers will require training. Furthermore, there are challenges in managing the new supply chain and setting up the production of new vehicles.

Based on the analysis of many different scenarios—which are highly sensitive to a defined set of assumptions—our research shows that commercial-vehicle (CV) electrification will be driven at different rates across segments, depending on the specific characteristics of use cases.

Electrification is happening fast, and it’s happening now

McKinsey developed a granular assessment of battery-electric commercial vehicles (BECVs) for 27 CV segments across three different regions (China, Europe, and the United States), three weight classes, and three applications. The three weight classes are light-duty trucks (LDTs), medium-duty trucks (MDTs), and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), while the three applications are urban, regional, and long-haul cycles. While our modeling also includes other alternative fuels and technologies such as mild hybrids, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), natural gas, and fuel-cell electric CVs, this article focuses on full electrification.

Our model concentrates on two scenarios, “early adoption” and “late adoption,” to help place bookends for each weight class and geography (Exhibit 1). The two scenarios reflect different beliefs regarding core assumptions, such as the effectiveness of any regulatory push, the timing of infrastructure readiness, and the supply availability, which results in delay or advancement of uptake.

Our research reveals strong potential uptake of BECVs, especially in the light- and medium-duty segments. Unlike decision criteria to purchase passenger cars, CV purchasing decisions place greater emphasis on economic calculations and reflect a greater sensitivity to regulation. Light- and medium-duty BECV segment adoption will probably lag that of passenger-car EVs through 2025 due to a lack of eTruck model availability and fleets that are risk averse. However, our analysis indicates that in an “early adoption” scenario, BECV share in light and medium duty could surpass car EV sales mix in some markets by 2030 due to undeniable TCO advantages for BECVs over diesel trucks.

Comparing the weight classes, our scenarios suggest low uptake in the HDT segment mainly because of high battery costs, and, as such, later TCO parity. In the MDT and LDT segments, our “late adoption” scenario suggests that BECVs could reach 8 to 27 percent sales penetration by 2030, depending on region and application. In our “early-adoption” scenario, with more aggressive assumptions about the expansion of low-emission zones in major cities, BECVs could reach 15 to 34 percent sales penetration by 2030.

The inflection point appears to be shortly after 2025, when demand could be supported by a significant tailwind from the expected tightening of regulation (for example, free-emission zones), in combination with increasing customer confidence, established charging infrastructure, model availability, and improved economics for a variety of use cases and applications.

The importance of total cost of ownership

TCO plays a more important role in commercial-vehicle purchasing considerations and modeling TCO helps companies understand the timing of TCO parity across different powertrain types. We analyzed the sensitivity of TCO parity to see how much earlier a specific use case with a custom-made technology package tailored to a predefined driving and charging pattern can break even. The illustration of the “race of eTrucks” shows the interval of potential TCO breakeven points for various applications and weight classes (Exhibit 2). The light-colored shade behind each point indicates how early a specific use case can potentially break even. . . .
There's much more.
 
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