Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

SageBrush said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

The Leaf is a decent hatchback that would fit in well with other hatch backs like a Golf or a subaru imprezza. But, the Model 3 doesn't look out of place parked next to a BMW or a Lexus IS. Different class of car, really. The model 3 will clearly be more expensive, because it's a ton more car.

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The Model 3 starts at $36k delivered. Other than the glass roof which I am going to buy as an extravagance, in my opinion the only option I would really miss in the base package is DRCC. The 40 kWh LEAF is ball-park the same price as a model 3 with DRCC, so to me one choice could be between a markedly inferior EV with DRCC Vs a much better EV without DRCC.

The bottom line: I cannot imagine buying a new LEAF. The silver lining is that their inferior battery tech leads to depreciation that outpaces the actual loss of performance so a used LEAF can be a good deal for an informed consumer.

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I think the high depreciation rates of BEVs is not only tied to the battery capacity utilization but also to limited driving range for earlier models (with newer ones coming out with longer ranges) as well as the eight-year warranty on the battery where it's the great unknown on the ninth year.

How long do you keep your cars, what about the Model S you have and the 3 you are getting? If I were to lease a BEV and leasing and financing rates were similar, I would hands down lease a Model 3 (nothing to worry about post-warranty issues) but then I'm the type who holds on to cars as if they were dear life and don't dispose of them unless it will cost me an arm and leg to keep them running.

I think think the perceived higher reliability of the Leaf (besides the battery) and that the battery degradation on this 40 kWh Leaf that has yet to be proven is keeping some long-term buyers on Nissan's court.

edatoakrun said:

sparky said:

Anecdotal: I'll update the plot.
After 1635 days, my 2013 Model S85 stood at 95.3% of original capacity. And I'm no hypermiler.
After roughly the same period of time, my 2011 LEAF was at 77% of capacity (which is pretty good for SoCal)...

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By hoarding kWh in an over-sized pack, you can easily reduce its percentage of capacity loss, but the kWh loss benefits gained by lower kWh throughput and gentler cycling will tend to be overcome by calendar losses suffered by the entire pack.

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Can you explain this in simpler terms?

For the first statement, are you saying that Tesla put in a huge battery with significant buffer so that the percentage of capacity loss is going to show lower? Does this battery buffer (unused portion) slowly shrink in size to allow for a Tesla vehicle to travel the same distance between charging?

For the second statement, are you saying that lower charging on the Leaf will be beneficial to the battery pack but over time, battery capacity degrades nonetheless when keeping everything else constant?

"It's interesting that I wrote that hypothetical scenario about pulling up to the lights in a model 3 next to a leaf some weeks ago and you're still going back to it. I wonder if it hurts because it's so true."

I felt the same way about cars until I was about 25 at which point getting a car with enough efficiency to allow me to pay for baby food became more important. There's nothing wrong with obtaining self worth from perceived relative social rank differentiation as determined by visible vehicular drag racing times (on public streets). However those of us who don't obtain such satisfaction are not all secretly jealous; we just have different priorities.

"The Leaf is a decent hatchback that would fit in well with other hatch backs like a Golf or a subaru imprezza."

The e-golf perhaps, but the Impreza is a guzzler.

"But, the Model 3 doesn't look out of place parked next to a BMW or a Lexus IS."

I would beg to differ on this point. I have seldom been as disappointed in a car as when I first test drove a Model X a few months back. First off it was small, felt smaller than the Leaf even on the inside, very cramped. The autopilot is a joke, at least on Houston freeways, constantly missing lines and disengaging. The 3rd row rear seats were hardly seats at all - far inferior to the old Mazda MPV I used to ride in the back of. But worst was the fit, finish and feel of the interior and drivetrain. Worse than my Volt even. It doesn't approach the quality of the Leaf let alone Lexus interior, and is light years away from when I've driven a top end German car like BMW or Porsche. One of my German friends test drove a Model S recently and was astounded at the poor finish. So astounded he (in German fashion) took a picture of every flaw and emailed me the photos.

"Different class of car, really. The model 3 will clearly be more expensive, because it's a ton more car."

I'm not sure what you mean here. More subjective styling points? More battery capacity?

'If we're honest with ourselves, and by God we should be, this thread is a bit like "What should I get a BMW X3 or a Nissan Rogue?"'

I'd prefer the Nissan: cheaper with cheaper parts. And it doesn't have the douchebag connotation which *does* bother me because luxury items make me uncomfortable, particularly as I live adjacent to low income apartments and a very low income neighborhood.

"Certainly nobody thinks the Leaf is as much car as the Model 3."

Even one somebody negates a nobody. I waited in line three hours to get the Model 3 reservation before the first showing. I cancelled it afterwords. I had thought it would be something "revolutionary" in the way the iPhone was when I first used it. But it wasn't that at all, just another overpriced small car with poor finish. The Leaf has a size, finish and price I'm more comfortable with. And it has parts, very important to me as I do my own repair work where possible. I find Teslas refusal to sell parts and their lock on outrageous repair costs to be highly offensive.

"Surely. But, the Tesla does clearly charge more for being more."

To each his own. I fully respect your Tesla love and somewhat understand your need to raise yourself by belittling those who possess "inferior" products. But at least try to understand some people simply like the Leaf better than the Model 3 or any Tesla for that matter.

Pertaining to degradation, why is it that the articles that are published about the depreciation of cars do not include EVs? I did a search for a 2014 BMW M3 for sale now, and they are about the same in percentage loss when compare to a 2014 Leaf SL. And the BMW is not even a major value loser, but it does come with a heavy maintenance and repair bill.

Also, the Tesla appears to hold it's value because we are sold on its exclusivity. A Leaf is a dime a dozen, but the Tesla is not. Even if we buya used one, we cannot be sure if we can get it fix, or even afford to fix it. Secondly, they are starting from a higher price and Tesla holds the market because the overwhelming majority were lease returns.

So when the Tesla M3 finally comes out, the hype will attach a certain value to the car, and that will take years to shed.

internalaudit said:

edatoakrun said:

sparky said:

Anecdotal: I'll update the plot.
After 1635 days, my 2013 Model S85 stood at 95.3% of original capacity. And I'm no hypermiler.
After roughly the same period of time, my 2011 LEAF was at 77% of capacity (which is pretty good for SoCal)...

Click to expand...

By hoarding kWh in an over-sized pack, you can easily reduce its percentage of capacity loss, but the kWh loss benefits gained by lower kWh throughput and gentler cycling will tend to be overcome by calendar losses suffered by the entire pack.

Click to expand...

Can you explain this in simpler terms?...

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The likely result from using a larger battery pack for the same kWh throughput in a BEV is lower capacity loss as a percentage of total capacity, but not necessarily lower capacity loss in kWh for the larger pack.

A BEV with a ~80 kWh pack when new might well lose only ~5% of initial capacity over 5 years and 50k miles, or ~4 kWh, with ~76 kWh remaining.

A BEV with a ~20 kWh pack which lost ~20% of initial capacity over the same time and miles, has also consumed the same ~4 kWh, with ~16 kWh remaining.

This analysis of course ignores other factors, such as the lower efficiency of the BEV with the ~80 kWh pack, due to the much greater pack weight and volume, and its much higher cost as disadvantages, and the much greater range between charges, as the upside of the larger pack.

Now at only 80% of initial capacity, you now might want to replace the pack on the ~20 kWh BEV, especially if the second life value for its pack in a stationary application was significant and, the price of new batteries had dropped, or if battery energy density had improved over the years.

The 80 kWh pack may last the life of the BEV, but its energy density will decline over time, so the efficiency penalty from the weight and size of the entire ~80 kWh pack will remain constant, even as the battery capacity continues to drop over time.

^ Thank you once again for explaining it more comprehensively.

No wonder Tesla is now reintroducing the notion of battery swapping -- to allay this fear.

edatoakrun said:

I was quite impressed with my 2011 LEAF's performance in the 864 mile trip it made last week to the LEAF events in the bay area, other than my slight disappointment in not losing the ninth capacity bar. <snip>

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As I know you record data, I'm curious as to just what your average speed and driving time as well as total time enroute was for this trip. You seem to be content to travel far more slowly by car than most people would consider acceptable. How much of your driving was at freeway speeds, or even on freeways? Or did you come all the way down the Sacramento valley on S.R. 99W or the equivalent side roads? Did you need/want to use HVAC at all? Drive at night?

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

lorenfb said:

But why, if you truly believe you can purchase a Model 3 for the same price and; greater range, better battery life,
more features, and "prestige"? Why even minimize one's self like those of us 'having to hide' when at a light next to
a Tesla and having to endure a "marginal BEV" - the Leaf?

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It's interesting that I wrote that hypothetical scenario about pulling up to the lights in a model 3 next to a leaf some weeks ago and you're still going back to it. I wonder if it hurts because it's so true.

The Leaf is a decent hatchback that would fit in well with other hatch backs like a Golf or a subaru imprezza. But, the Model 3 doesn't look out of place parked next to a BMW or a Lexus IS. Different class of car, really. The model 3 will clearly be more expensive, because it's a ton more car.

If we're honest with ourselves, and by God we should be, this thread is a bit like "What should I get a BMW X3 or a Nissan Rogue?" Certainly nobody thinks the Leaf is as much car as the Model 3. Surely. But, the Tesla does clearly charge more for being more.

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You don't appreciate my being facetious? At 54K, 51Ahrs, 12 bars, almost 4 years, no reliability issues,
and now own the Leaf, I have no second thoughts about driving a Leaf - even at a light next to a MS
when I switch off ECON and B Mode waiting for the green light.

internalaudit said:

[
Can you explain this in simpler terms?

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Sure. Hogwash

It completely ignores the reality that people buy battery capacity to meet their driving needs and to allow for some degradation over the life they will keep the car. It also completely ignores depreciation.

Ed's attempt to combine Model S miles per kWh consumption rates with the LEAFs battery capacity are the funniest thing I read all day.

First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Also, I would rather own a leaf, and replace the battery after 6-8-10 years, and NOT be raped with low-volume specialty toy with a big battery. With the Tesla, the battery is not the weak point in the system. The problem with Tesla is that you will not be able to afford repairs and maintenance, and replacement parts long term.

I see the Leaf as a flashlight that I can change the batteries with new ones when the batteries die. I would rather do that than pay ridiculous money to have "lifetime" rechargeable batteries, up front when I buy it....

powersurge said:

First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Also, I would rather own a leaf, and replace the battery after 6-8-10 years, and NOT be raped with low-volume specialty toy with a big battery. With the Tesla, the battery is not the weak point in the system. The problem with Tesla is that you will not be able to afford repairs and maintenance, and replacement parts long term.

I see the Leaf as a flashlight that I can change the batteries with new ones when the batteries die. I would rather do that than pay ridiculous money to have "lifetime" rechargeable batteries, up front when I buy it....

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I just have to laugh at your sarcasm here. :lol:

Evoforce said:

powersurge said:

First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Also, I would rather own a leaf, and replace the battery after 6-8-10 years, and NOT be raped with low-volume specialty toy with a big battery. With the Tesla, the battery is not the weak point in the system. The problem with Tesla is that you will not be able to afford repairs and maintenance, and replacement parts long term.

I see the Leaf as a flashlight that I can change the batteries with new ones when the batteries die. I would rather do that than pay ridiculous money to have "lifetime" rechargeable batteries, up front when I buy it....

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I just have to laugh at your sarcasm here. :lol:

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This back and forth is getting kind of ridiculous. Why does it have to be all or nothing with both cars?? Love the Tesla/Hate the Leaf and vice versa.

They are both great cars with unique advantages and disadvantages. The consumer can decide which one meets their needs. Decisions might be based on range, or utility, or simply "cool factor". No reason to bash one car while hyping the other.

powersurge said:

First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Also, I would rather own a leaf, and replace the battery after 6-8-10 years, and NOT be raped with low-volume specialty toy with a big battery. With the Tesla, the battery is not the weak point in the system. The problem with Tesla is that you will not be able to afford repairs and maintenance, and replacement parts long term.

I see the Leaf as a flashlight that I can change the batteries with new ones when the batteries die. I would rather do that than pay ridiculous money to have "lifetime" rechargeable batteries, up front when I buy it....

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lmao. I bolded the part that was the funniest.

webb14leafs said:

This back and forth is getting kind of ridiculous. Why does it have to be all or nothing with both cars?? Love the Tesla/Hate the Leaf and vice versa.

They are both great cars with unique advantages and disadvantages. The consumer can decide which one meets their needs. Decisions might be based on range, or utility, or simply "cool factor". No reason to bash one car while hyping the other.

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My thoughts exactly. The title of this thread implies that the OP was looking for advantages the 2018 Leaf has over the Model 3. So I tried to stick to those. But that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of advantages of the Model 3.

If I had to chose between the two (ignoring the Bolt - another great option IMHO), I would probably pick the Model 3. But on the other hand, I would probably take a 225-mile 2019 Leaf over a Model 3 (and no, the 5 mile difference does not have anything to do with the choice). So clearly I don't think either is a bad car. Both are great EVs.

My final bit of advice is that IF the Tesla is truly available for only $5K more than the Leaf, BUY IT under any circumstances and run victory laps around your lawn.

If it ends up costing $10K or more than the Leaf and 150 miles of range meets your needs. Buy the Leaf. If you need more than 150 miles, wait until 2019 and restart the decision making process.

Of course, if Toyota actually releases a solid state battery powered car in 2020 or 2021 with a reasonable price tag then everything goes out the window.

webb14leafs said:

... IF the Tesla is truly available for only $5K more than the Leaf...

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Tesla will be at least double from a lease perspective in California. Leafs are almost free here if you consider the gas savings.

DanCar said:

webb14leafs said:

... IF the Tesla is truly available for only $5K more than the Leaf...

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Tesla will be at least double from a lease perspective in California. Leafs are almost free here if you consider the gas savings.

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The good news is Nissan will still have to subsidize their cars with deep discounts and they will see to a certain audience. Meanwhile those that want a Model 3 also have a choice. I see the ration of sales of the Model 3 to all other EVs to be very significant, that's clear. What is not clear is how the LEAF sales will look now and later once there are more supplies of the Model 3 and used vehicles of both. I expect that to push the curve wider. There are price, styling , performance, and cache differences yet the key drivers on utility and function that Nissan lacks for many buyers are

Supercharging
Technology and included telematics hardware and functional differences
Service and support
Battery life

Many LEAF owners will need a second car or rental for many situations regardless of the long range LEAF pack.

Many LEAF owners will need a second car or rental for many situations regardless of the long range LEAF pack.

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The same can be said for the Tesla. The Tesla supercharger network is leaps and bounds better than any other, but it is still not ubiquidous. And for really long drives an hour of charging for every 2.5 of driving is enough to warrant a rental or second car for most people.

webb14leafs said:

My final bit of advice is that IF the Tesla is truly available for only $5K more than the Leaf, BUY IT under any circumstances and run victory laps around your lawn.

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I don't know how much the LEAF2 will sell for, but msrp seems likely for now.

The $36k Model 3 is not an if. Reserve today to get in line for delivery in 12-18 months by current projections.

powersurge said:

First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

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Not many profitably at less than $50K, and profitability even at that price is questionable! The company already
continually loses money selling both the MS & MX at over $90K. The M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS and
increase Tesla losses. Tesla's cost structure is much greater than GM's with the Bolt, with battery costs not that
different. So with the Bolt selling near break-even at around $35K, the M3 will be a loss-leader for Tesla.