TSLA corporate outlook

finman100 said:

yay! more lies! it's called re-investment for the future. something other auto makers could look into. or not.

..(Disclosure: We own shares in Tesla.)...

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin...otors-has-already-lost-to-tesla/#186c63dd3ccb

oh. and good luck on the shorts...

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Tesla Is 'Structurally Unprofitable,' Chanos Says

Tesla Inc., a perennial target of short sellers, is “structurally unprofitable” with a “way too leveraged” capital structure, said famed investor Jim Chanos.

“Three years ago, this company was supposed to be making money now,” Chanos, who’s betting against Tesla shares, said in an interview Thursday on Bloomberg Television. “Now it’s supposed to be making money by 2020. And I’m guessing by 2019, we’ll hear about 2025.”

Chanos, who bet early on energy company Enron Corp.’s failure, said the electric-car maker run by Elon Musk is behind on autonomous driving technology and rushed the Model 3 to market to appease investors. SolarCity Corp., the solar installer Tesla acquired in a controversial deal last year, is about a $1 billion drain to shareholders annually, he said...

“This stock, probably more than almost any other, is a poster child for the hopes and dreams of this bull market,” Chanos said.

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Chanos, who bet early on energy company Enron Corp.’s failure, said the electric-car maker run by Elon Musk is behind on autonomous driving technology

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Tesla deliveries hit by 'production bottleneck' for Model 3

Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.62% lived up to expectations for car deliveries in the third quarter, but the company's new Model 3 sedan got off to a slow start due to production issues. The electric-car company said Monday afternoon that it delivered 26,150 vehicles in the quarter, slightly beating estimates. However, the company delivered only 220 of its newest car, the Model 3, after Chief Executive Elon Musk's big launch event for the highly anticipated new vehicle in July. "Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks," the company said...

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In the end, Tesla reported they built 260 Model 3s during Q3, about 1,400 light.

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sparky said:

26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.

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lorenfb said:

sparky said:

26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.

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That results in a 2017 YTD number of 73K. The 2017 guidance is 110K which requires at least 37K in Q4. Maybe you should start
calling your friends for a X demo ride with a sales pitch. Elon could use your help in Q4!

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mtndrew1 said:

lorenfb said:

sparky said:

26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.

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That results in a 2017 YTD number of 73K. The 2017 guidance is 110K which requires at least 37K in Q4. Maybe you should start
calling your friends for a X demo ride with a sales pitch. Elon could use your help in Q4!

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Not sure where you got 110k from but from, you know, their actual guidance available at their investors website:

“In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.”

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mtndrew1 said:

Also anxiously awaiting your calculations on deliveries going forward given that Tesla delivered 4,860 Model S and 3,120 Model X in the US in September and you’re so very adamant that it couldn’t be due to a cyclical nature of deliveries wherein most US deliveries happen in the last month of a given quarter.

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lpickup said:

edatoakrun said:

LTLFTcomposite said:

I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

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Poor management?

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While management is certainly to blame for unnecessarily creating twitter hype and outlining a best case scenario for ramp up, I see no evidence that management itself is responsible for actual production bottlenecks. It's par for the course when launching a new production line. The only mistake is that Elon should probably have kept his production targets between him and his production team and confined his tweets to actual confirmed progress.

edatoakrun said:

Model 3 production execution would seem to be slightly less-than-perfect, as model 3 production has only reached about 1% of the ~24,000 one prominent tesliac was projecting by October, about seven months ago.

See the chart at:

Tesla Model 3: perfect production execution means around 80,000 vehicles in 2017

Fred Lambert - Feb. 27th 2017 4:36 pm ET

.... we track a perfect execution of a Model 3 production ramp at about 80,000 units in 2017...

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https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/tesla-model-3-perfect-execution-production-2017/

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Again, it seems as if you don't even read the stuff you post. Funny you didn't include the very next sentence after the one you quoted:

That would barely make a dent in Tesla’s backlog of over 400,000 reservations and again, that’s assuming a perfect execution, which is near impossible.

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But please continue to cherry pick 7 month old sound bites out of context to back up your thesis that Tesla is only a quarter away from going bankrupt, and continue to do so quarter after quarter after quarter...

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Putting the 'S' In Tesla

By Liam Denning

Tesla's third-quarter deliveries were up slightly, year over year, and came in higher than production for the first time since late 2015

Given a somewhat patchy history when it comes to hitting targets or earnings forecasts, this will no doubt come as good news to many Tesla investors -- although, to be fair, they rarely display noticeable concern about such things.

Yet the bad news overshadows all this.The bad news concerns the Model 3, Tesla's cheaper vehicle launched in July. Only 260 of these were made in the third quarter, of which 220 were actually delivered.Only in August, the company expressed confidence it could produce more than 1,500 in the quarter (already a big downgrade to earlier targets)...

An extra five-or-six-thousand Model S and X deliveries is nice, but unlikely to make much difference to Tesla's ferocious rate of cash burn, forecast to be $1.6 billion for the second half, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg...

In August, Tesla expected to be producing 5,000 a week by the end of December. That implied an increase of 44 times the average weekly production rate of the third-quarter -- based on the old guidance, that is.

Using the actual numbers for the quarter just gone, the required ramp-up is now on the order of 250 times -- soaring, steep, sheer.

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edatoakrun said:

...Can TSLA begin to get the cash flow from tens of thousands of model 3 sales soon enough, in order to make a plausible pitch to sell more debt or equity before it burns through all the cash it has on hand?

On that point, the quarterly report will tell us much more than these sales figures have.

It should reveal what sort of discounts TSLA had to make on Ss and Xs, to move those extra few thousand vehicles...

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Tesla's Core Business Is Bleeding Cash And The Model 3 Is Not Speeding To The Rescue

...The agonizingly slow ramp-up of the Model 3 is not the biggest issue at Tesla. Cash burn is, and always will be. Automakers generate bushels of cash during periods of economic expansion by quickly ramping up production and then maintaining those levels while the economy allows. That's not happening at Tesla. After $1.4 billion in cash burn in the second quarter and $2.4 billion in the first half of 2017, the disappointing 3Q production/delivery numbers have convinced me that Tesla's cash burn will be at least $1.5 billion in the third quarter. But, will it be as high as $2 billion? Would that finally get the stock market's attention?

Tesla produced 25,076 units of its Model S and X in the third quarter versus 25,708 units produced in the second quarter. Tesla's production is not growing...

So, the facts were negative for Tesla today, but the stock price action was positive. It is not the first time this has happened. Regardless of one's belief in the future of autonomous mobility and Tesla's role therein, however, it's clear that this company is not growing quickly enough to generate positive cash flow at any time in the foreseeable future.

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Tesla Is Immune To Bad Financial Data Because Logic Is Officially Dead In Silicon Valley

Who needs financial metrics when tech companies can offer you faith?

Late yesterday, Tesla Motors reported that it did not produce even close to the number of Model 3 cars that it predicted it would in the third fiscal quarter of 2017.

That is objectively not good news for Tesla. The company has put a staggeringly high amount of pressure on itself to increase production on the Model 3 with a speed that is literally unprecedented in the history of manufacturing. Essentially, Elon Musk has staked the future of his car company on the notion that he can make one million cars a year by 2020. Tesla made 83,922 in 2016… total...

This era of counterfactual thinking has now spread into almost every nook and cranny of our shared American brain, but if we’re going to start putting our money into it, Tesla can stop worrying about making more cars because there will be no one left who can afford them.

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hyperionmark said:

Still curious if any of you that are not a fan of Tesla are shorting the stock. That would be a true test of what you really think about the company. If you are, please let us know, as that gives much more weight to your posts IMO.

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lorenfb said:

hyperionmark said:

Still curious if any of you that are not a fan of Tesla are shorting the stock. That would be a true test of what you really think about the company. If you are, please let us know, as that gives much more weight to your posts IMO.

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Not really! As has been posted before, wise traders, e.g. PUT buyers, CALL sellers, stock shorters, don't become
involved with stocks, e.g. Tesla, where the typical shareholders are irrational and the key shareholder lives in a dream world.

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jlv said:

I bought TSLA stock... and then later sold it at a nice profit. I'll drink to those irrational shareholders that made it possible and helped subsidize my S. (I wouldn't buy the stock *now*, though).

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