TSLA corporate outlook

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jlv said:
... (I wouldn't buy the stock *now*, though).
Nor would I. As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!
 
I actually keep hoping the Tesla deniers, naysayers, and bashers get their way so the stock drops back into my buy range, however.
 
dgpcolorado said:
As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!
That's understandable. Given the current heights of the market, I've been incrementally pivoting toward "value" investments.

That said, I continue to believe that, while there are major risks, TSLA continues to have significant, long term upside potential and am holding some shares. I'll likely buy more if there's a substantial drop. (My last significant buy was at closer to $150/share.) Tesla's high level of vertical integration, Gigafactory, and Supercharger network are key differentiators, and we may yet see Tesla disrupt multiple industries. Funding this business is a worthwhile use of capital, in my opinion, even if the outcome turns out to be nothing more than accelerating the shifts toward sustainable energy and transportation.
 
abasile said:
dgpcolorado said:
As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!
That's understandable. Given the current heights of the market, I've been incrementally pivoting toward "value" investments.

That said, I continue to believe that, while there are major risks, TSLA continues to have significant, long term upside potential and am holding some shares. I'll likely buy more if there's a substantial drop. (My last significant buy was at closer to $150/share.) Tesla's high level of vertical integration, Gigafactory, and Supercharger network are key differentiators, and we may yet see Tesla disrupt multiple industries. Funding this business is a worthwhile use of capital, in my opinion, even if the outcome turns out to be nothing more than accelerating the shifts toward sustainable energy and transportation.
I agree wholeheartedly. They are doing things to change the world that no other company is. And many Tesla bears only look at their car segment and forget this is now a wide base energy company. And even though their car segment is largest it is comforting to know as a shareholder how diversified they are.
 
The semi reveal is pushed off until November, presumably on account of the optics surrounding model 3 production challenges. PR solar initiatives won't face similar scrutiny.
 
hyperionmark said:
They are doing things to change the world that no other company is.

Really? Given your business acumen, can you please fully explain this.

hyperionmark said:
And many Tesla bears only look at their car segment and forget this is now a wide base energy company.

And then explain how you can conclude this; "a wide base energy company".

hyperionmark said:
And even though their car segment is largest it is comforting to know as a shareholder how diversified they are.

So they are "diversified", right? More insight, please.

Based on all the insightful stock analysis, you are either a management consultant, e.g. BAH - Boos Allen Hamilton,
or a stockbroker (Morgan Stanley), right? It's interesting that many on this forum have not expressed these views.
It seems you have an unique ability. Looking forward to more of your in-depth 'knowledge' on Tesla.

Hopefully, most of the TSLA short sellers will immediately cover their 'shorts' after reading your insightful post, right?
 
It's becoming quite a pissing contest, between Musk and the WSJ.

That's all you can read, without sending your buck to the Murdochs...

MARKETS HEARD ON THE STREET

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

CEO Elon Musk is a visionary, but there is a fine line between setting aggressive goals and misleading shareholders


By Charley Grant
Oct. 7, 2017 2:02 p.m. ET

New revelations about Tesla Inc.’s production of the highly anticipated Model 3 sedan should shock, but not surprise, investors.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla has recently been building major portions of the Model 3 by hand. This comes less than a week after Tesla announced it fell short of its third-quarter production guidance of 1,500 cars by more than 80%...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-truth-is-catching-up-with-tesla-1507399374
 
Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.
 
abasile said:
Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.
I wish we could "like" posts on this forum. Consider this one "liked."
 
hyperionmark said:
abasile said:
Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.
I wish we could "like" posts on this forum. Consider this one "liked."

Ditto!
 
Zythryn said:
hyperionmark said:
abasile said:
...There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition...
I wish we could "like" posts on this forum. Consider this one "liked."
Ditto!
It is quite amusing to see such collective praise for a vehicle with no actual production examples built.

And also a vehicle for which even a sycophant site is now posting reports suggesting the launch may not only be delayed, but be in serious trouble.

Shouldn't the report that the battery pack design was not even completed by July give any rational investor in TSLA, or any depositor on a model 3, some reason to be concerned?


edatoakrun said:
Official Tesla Model 3 thread
edatoakrun said:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:53 pm

Yes, model three production began in July, and the ~30 cars delivered that month were production models.

Except for their battery packs, seats, headlights, taillights, and "several other smaller components"...

Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’

...employees and company insiders are the ones taking delivery of early production vehicles. Those vehicles are subject to components changes as Tesla tunes its manufacturing processes for Model 3 and add more production parts.

Sources familiar with those changes confirmed to Electrek that they had to make over a half dozen of them. In most cases, the vehicles are still performing normally, but Tesla wants to replace a now “prototype” part with a production one or it has improved on a production part through the deployment of the Model 3 manufacturing lines.

For example, Tesla has already replaced the Model 3 front and passenger seats as well as the battery packs from the vehicles made in July.

More recently, Tesla changed the Model 3’s headlight and tail lights for vehicles made in August. The headlights were replaced with an “upgraded version”, while the first version of the tail lights were susceptible to condensation – something that was visible in some Model 3 production candidates spotted in the wild earlier this year.

Tesla also had to replace several other smaller components...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-model-3-headlights-battery-seats/
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=1180
 
edatoakrun said:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=1180
BTW, if you click on the date of a post, you'll be navigated to a URL to w/a bookmark of the post itself. I'm guessing http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=507475#p507475 is what you intended to point to.
 
hyperionmark said:
And many Tesla bears only look at their car segment and forget this is now a wide base energy company. And even though their car segment is largest it is comforting to know as a shareholder how diversified they are.
As you well know, Tesla sells two expensive vehicles in the luxury price segment and another that's currently barely being produced in the lower end of the luxury segment.

Here's one of the largest automakers in comparison w/a full line of cars from econoboxes to luxury cars to vans and trucks.
http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/data/conditions/product_lineup/vehicles.html

They produce about and sell about 10 million cars/year in more than 170 regions/countries (http://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/corporate/companyinformation/worldwide). In a single week, they produce and sell more cars than Tesla does in a year.

http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/data/business/index.html has their non-automotive businesses.
 
edatoakrun said:
It is quite amusing to see such collective praise for a vehicle with no actual production examples built.
This does not look like it's being hand-built, so maybe a production line?
 
edatoakrun said:
...Shouldn't the report that the battery pack design was not even completed by July give any rational investor in TSLA, or any depositor on a model 3, some reason to be concerned?

Not in particular. It only makes sense that they'd try to use the very latest and best arrangement they could produce. Considering the GigaFactory is also engaged in their ramp-up it's not surprising to me that they'd leave non-dimensional aspects of the battery pack open for as long as possible.

My main worries remain Tesla's track record of missing production targets, and the risk of disappointing mainstream buyers in terms of quality.
 
For all the derision of mainstream automakers from the Tesla Fanbois, it's becoming apparent that mass producing automobiles isn't quite as easy as it looks. You don't hear Mary Barra or Carlos Ghosn whining about "production hell".
Innovation and the ability to tenaciously slog through day to day execution are skills not always possessed by the same sorts of individuals. Tesla better figure out how to start stamping out cars in a hurry or things are going to get ugly.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
For all the derision of mainstream automakers from the Tesla Fanbois, it's becoming apparent that mass producing automobiles isn't quite as easy as it looks. You don't hear Mary Barra or Carlos Ghosn whining about "production hell".
Innovation and the ability to tenaciously slog through day to day execution are skills not always possessed by the same sorts of individuals. Tesla better figure out how to start stamping out cars in a hurry or things are going to get ugly.
Indeed, and as edatoakrun pointed out at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=496910#p496910, Tesla's output at their Fremont plant is very low vs. the # of employees they have on-site. And to re-quote
"The number of people Musk's got in there has a great deal to do with why he doesn't make money building vehicles," said automotive manufacturing consultant Michael Tracy of Agile Group in Howell, Mich. "Toyota's numbers reflect the number of people you expect to have if you were going to efficiently build vehicles for a profit."
 
Here's an interesting story about people actually putting their money on the line. I know a few of you are real shorters, which I have said I respect much more than the rest of the people that have no skin in the game.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/08/epic-battle-happening-musk-tesla-haters/
 
Nubo said:
My main worries remain Tesla's track record of missing production targets, and the risk of disappointing mainstream buyers in terms of quality.

Actually, whether it's the typical TSLA shareholder or a reservation holder, at this early phase of M3 production,
most will be indifferent. It won't be until mid 2018 that the 'reality' sets in and rationalization begins to wane.
 
lorenfb said:
Nubo said:
My main worries remain Tesla's track record of missing production targets, and the risk of disappointing mainstream buyers in terms of quality.

Actually, whether it's the typical TSLA shareholder or a reservation holder, at this early phase of M3 production,
most will be indifferent. It won't be until mid 2018 that the 'reality' sets in and rationalization begins to wane.
If you don't actually have skin in the game your comments are worthless.
 
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