Tesla’s ‘Hiccups’: Devil in the Details
EO Elon Musk has said Tesla faces six months of “production hell” as it ramps up production of its much-awaited Model 3, but the devil may have arrived early.
Musk introduced the Model 3 on July 28 amid much hoopla at its Fremont, CA, assembly operations. Dressed casually and smiling broadly, Musk unveiled 30 Model 3s and said production would begin in August with 100 cars rolling off the line, rising to 1,500 in September and steeply upward to 20,000 in December.
Tesla targeted building 1,630 Model 3s during the third quarter but acknowledged it badly missed that goal, turning out only 260 cars. Nevertheless, Musk remained bullish, saying production will reach 5,000 weekly by year’s end...
Based on numerous reports, Tesla has little chance of hitting its 5,000 weekly output during the fourth quarter and perhaps not for a long time after that...
The chief reason: Its current production line in Fremont, CA, can’t build vehicles at that rate unless it runs two 10-hour shifts seven days a week, which is not likely for an all-new vehicle, even if everything goes smoothly. The plant presently runs two 8-hour shifts five days a week.
A source in position to know says a second body shop mirroring Fremont’s would be required to support the high volume Musk has forecast. “I understand they’re talking about a second body shop,” he says, “but I can’t see them reaching 2,500 to 3,000 weekly until the end of next year” with current production facilities.
Knowledgeable sources say Tesla’s Model 3 launch has been hampered by all manner of problems, some self-inflicted because of Musk’s disdain for using development and production processes honed by traditional auto makers.
Most importantly, Tesla bypassed production prototyping typically used by auto makers to catch glitches before gearing up for high-volume output and instead sought to save time by using a “pilot line” to check out processes. “Using prototyping you can make changes and it doesn’t cost as much,” says one source. Business Insider reports that skipping prototyping “could spell trouble down the road.”
Another source, who has first-hand knowledge of the situation, says Tesla chose to use its own methods to prep for production rather than rely on traditional validation processes. “There have been a lot of hiccups,” the source says, “because everything they do is ass-backwards. They aren’t used to this kind of (high-volume) operation. There are no standards.”...
