Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

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GRA said:
September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.

interesting how Tesla sales spike every 3 months...
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.
Sure are, but then cars that start at $75k or so are well above 'semi-affordable' or 'affordable' as defined, and anyone who can buy a new car costing that much doesn't have to be concerned with getting the most transportation value from their dollar. BTW, if my purpose had been to pad PHEV % I'd have set the definition of 'semi-affordable' at $45k, as that would have included the i3/i3REx, and the REx has been outselling the BEV by 2.5 or 3:1 in the U.S.

As it is, the ratio of semi-affordable and affordable BEVs to PHEVs has been creeping up for the past several months (except for this past one in the 'affordable' category, due primarily to the removal of the e-Golf, but also the Prime's decent sales), and once the Model 3 and 2018 LEAF arrive in numbers I expect that BEVs will move into the majority in at least the 'semi-affordable' category, and maybe both. Whether they can hold the lead once the fed. credits start running out remains to be seen, and that's going to impact Tesla, GM and Nissan at some point in the next 12-18 months. Barring a sustained increase in the price of gas, I suspect most people who have to worry about value for money will opt for PHEVs for some time after that, until BEV prices reach (unsubsidized) parity with ICEs and the charging infrastructure for road trips is in place.

Several years back I wrote that I thought the point at which mainstream car buyers would start to consider BEVs would be 150 miles AER & $30k MSRP, but that was predicated on gas remaining at $3.50/gal. or higher as it was at that time, while the national average is currently $2.485, and fifteen or twenty cents of that is due to hurricane disruptions. I have my doubts that $30k/150 miles will be enough under current conditions, but we'll find out next year. California's $0.12/gal. gas tax hike will kick in Nov. 1st so that should help BEVs a bit, as our current avg. price/gal. is about $3.06. At least this year we'll finally cross the 1% PEV annual sales threshold.
 
October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781, but it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued to decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...rdable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.
 
GRA said:
October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781 it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216* or 434, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

*NOTE: the Clarity Electric is only available for lease, at $269/month. This would probably put it in with the sub-$40k but not the sub-$30k group.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...rdable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.

None of this surprises me

What continues to surprise me is Nissan waiting till 2018 before launching in US. Every day they are losing sales to the Bolt...
 
November's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,551, 46.3% (10 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED, Spark EV).
PHEV, 5,277, 53.7% (9 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV)
Total 9,828.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were up by 1,027 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 1.2%. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,987, but 1st gen. LEAF sales continued to fall towards nothing with 175 (down from 213). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,834 (up from 1,626), Volt 1,702 (up from 1,362). 500e sales continued their decrease to 275 (from 310), but the e-Golf bounced back a bit to 289 (from 203), the FFE does its usual 100+ (121 vice 115) and the Soul EV dropped a slight bit more to 207 (from 210). Ionic BEV sales slid yet more to 23 (from 28), but the Clarity BEV showed a huge jump to 459 (from 34), for reasons unknown, the Smart ED moved 68, and someone found 7 Spark EVs to sell.

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 523 (569) to 731 (741), The A-3 e-tron rebounded slightly perhaps due to 2018s beginning to arrive, to 38 (from 17), the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both down at 135 (210) and 213 (235) respectively, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 96 (from 56), and the just barely arrived Clarity PHEV managed to get 5 out the door.

November's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 219, 8.5% (4 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED, Spark EV)
PHEV, 2,357, 91.5% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,576. Decrease/increase of 0.5% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.
 
December's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 5,111, 41.1% (10 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED, Spark EV).
PHEV, 7,336, 58.9% (10 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV)
Total 12,447.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were up by 2,819 M-o-M, representing the usual end of year spike plus maybe worries about the tax credits being gone, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 5.2%. The Bolt exceeded 3k for the first time, setting a new high of 3,227, but 1st gen. LEAF sales continued to fall towards nothing with 102 (down from 175). The Bolt was followed by the Prime which exceeded 2k for the first time at 2,420 (up from 1,834), Volt 1,937 (up from 1,702). 500e sales saw an uptick to 385 (from 275), the e-Golf saw a modest increase to 343 (from 289), the FFE does its usual 100+ (113 vice 121) and the Soul EV was almost unchanged at 204 (from 207). Ionic BEV sales more than tripled to 79 (from 23), the Clarity BEV increased a bit to 527 (from 459), the Smart ED almost doubled sales to 129 (from 68), and someone found 2 Spark EVs to sell.

The out of production C-Max Energi continued to sell remaining inventory and moved 463 (from 523), while the Fusion Energi was up to 875 (from 731), The 2018 A-3 e-tron is now here an sales were up sharply at 270 (from 38), the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins split, with the Sonata up at 195 (135) while the Optima was down about 1/3rd to 134 (213), the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV was down a bit to 72 (from 96), the Clarity PHEV in its first full month sold 898 (5), and the Outlander PHEV sold 99 in its first month.

December's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 323, 10.1% (4 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED, Spark EV)
PHEV, 2,856, 89.9% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 3,179 (2,576). Increase/decrease of 1.7% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Bolt is outselling the Volt.

BEV is better than a PHEV.
With deep analysis like that, shouldn't you be working for the current presidential administration? :lol:

If you got nothing to say but an insult, you got nothing to say.
I said quite a lot more before that, and you came back with a meaningless throwaway line, so I figured I'd have some fun.
 
I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why.

The VOLT (serial plug-in hybrid) is actually like the Prius (parallel plug-in hybrid)... has clear advantage over the LEAF, i.e., RANGE... However they are complex and still have the care and feeding of a regular car.

Market rules. For me I can't afford (practically and fiscally responsibly) a new Tesla. To me the LEAF is the poor man's Tesla. Do I need more range. 2 or 3 times a year I need to do +80 miles round trip to a neighboring town (a few towns over).... The LEAF at least mine is pushed to do that on single charge. There is free charging (if the spot is open???) at a hotel in that small town. Assuming I can plug in, I can have lunch while I give it a hour charge, to give me the buffer I get home easily. So even if I had 150 or 200 mile range I wound not use it that much. I still have my Diesel VW TDI JSW.... I keep it for that reason, to go cross country (I mean 700 miles on one tank at 50 mpg).

Sadly figuring out how fast my battery is going, cost to replace the battery, my EV is going to cost me twice what the fuel bill would be for my VW TDI (not including the oil changes, but I do that myself). I have dipped my toes in the EV pool. I see it and like it, but I am not giving up on my ICE Diesel. If I had to pick ONE for the rest of my life... IT WOULD NOT BE A PURE EV.... It does not work 100%. However I often thought IF I DID GO 100% EV... for the times I need to go further I have my BMW motorcycle or I can RENT A CAR...
 
gmcjetpilot said:
I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why <snip rest>.
As it happens, it's not true (it was at the time the thread was started), rather the reverse, although the thread has long since shifted to a comparison of 'semi-affordable' (defined as sub-$40k MSRP) BEVs and PHEVs. The ratio will likely shift back in favor of BEVs with the introduction of the short-range Model 3 and (maybe) the LEAF 2, unless and until someone introduces an affordable, desirable AWD PHEV CUV - many of us think the Outlander PHEV isn't it, but we'll see.
 
GRA said:
gmcjetpilot said:
I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why <snip rest>.
As it happens, it's not true (it was at the time the thread was started), rather the reverse, although the thread has long since shifted to a comparison of 'semi-affordable' (defined as sub-$40k MSRP) BEVs and PHEVs. The ratio will likely shift back in favor of BEVs with the introduction of the short-range Model 3 and (maybe) the LEAF 2, unless and until someone introduces an affordable, desirable AWD PHEV CUV - many of us think the Outlander PHEV isn't it, but we'll see.
It's not true in the U.S. for the Nissan LEAF (which hasn't yet had a refresh) versus the Chevy Volt (which was refreshed 2 years ago) in 2017. Full stop. (And, yes, that was the original premise of this thread. I will update the plot in the OP when I have a chance.)

But the simple fact is that in the U.S. BEV sales edged out PHEV sales by 102,000 versus 98,000 in 2017. Worldwide, the dominance of BEVs over PHEVs is clear: for every PHEV sold in 2017, nearly 2 BEVs were sold.

There are some interesting facts found in the 2017 worldwide PEV sales numbers:

- Global PEV sales grew by 58% in 2017 over 2016! That is a MUCH higher growth rate than we experienced in the U.S.
- 2017 PEV sales were over 1.2 million units.
- Global PEV sales in 2017 topped 1% of the overall market.
- The Chinese BAIC EC-Series BEV sedan was the global PEV sales leader, beating the Tesla Model-S by over 23,000 units.
- Globally, the Nissan LEAF outsold the Chevy Volt/Ampera in 2017 47,195 to 26,291.
- While the Toyota Prius Prime PHEV only took the third spot globally in 2017, it is well-positioned to win the top spot in PEV sales in 2018.

Another interesting picture arises when you look at global sales by PEV sales groups:

- The Nissan/Renault alliance is the global PEV sales leader by a small margin.
- Three Chinese groups take the next three positions globally: BYD Group, BAIC Group, and Geely Group.
- Tesla takes fifth place in PEV sales when compared with these global alliances (perhaps not a fair comparison).
- GM is seventh globally in PEV sales.
- Toyota is a one-trick pony taking tenth place globally in PEV sales. From the article:
EV-Sales said:
Caught on the Fuel Cell delusion, Toyota efectivelly lost the upper-hand it had for years with the hybrid game, and only now is trying to get in the next generation (PEV) game.
2018 will proved to be a massive growth year for BEVs, but I'm not yet willing to count out PHEVs. What BEVs achieve in terms of successful single-model sales, PHEVs make up in terms of add-on sales of PHEVs to popular models. Plus the Toyota Prius Prime will sell very well this year.

Overall, it is very encouraging to see the rapid growth in both BEVs and PHEVs!
 
I have updated the image in the OP with a new version that goes through January 2018, reproduced here:

Nissan_LEAFSales_As_Percentage_Of_Chevy_Volt_Sales_Through1801.png


I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that December 2017 will be the all-time-low point for this ratio. That month, the Chevy Volt outsold the Nissan LEAF in the US by a factor of 19:1!!

I will also predict that in 2018 we will again see sales of the Nissan LEAF pulling away from the Volt in the US. This time I expect it will be for good!
 
I've got a feeling the Volt will be gone by 2020, but GM may have to use the Voltec hybrid technology in its mainstream vehicles to meet CAFE requirements. My suggestion, drop this Leaf vs Volt discussion, it's time to move on.
 
jlv said:
Of course it might be more interesting at this point to compare sales of the LEAF to the Bolt.
It's a good idea, but after years of this one going south and having GRA try to explain that all of the high sales of Tesla BEVs don't count because they are actually "unaffordable" and that BEVs aren't REALLY outselling PHEVs, I'm going to ride this one out 'til the bitter end (of the Volt, if not longer).

That might be a good topic for a new thread.
 
RegGuheert said:
jlv said:
Of course it might be more interesting at this point to compare sales of the LEAF to the Bolt.
It's a good idea, but after years of this one going south and having GRA try to explain that all of the high sales of Tesla BEVs don't count because they are actually "unaffordable" and that BEVs aren't REALLY outselling PHEVs, I'm going to ride this one out 'til the bitter end (of the Volt, if not longer).

That might be a good topic for a new thread.
No, Tesla sales proved that BEVs needed to be expensive to be desirable by people other than the usual suspects, as they were the only BEVs that could sell in reasonable numbers without subsidies. The important thing will be when semi-affordable BEVs can do so - we await the chance for the (sub-$40k) Model 3 or LEAF 2 to prove that they can.
 
RegGuheert said:
- While the Toyota Prius Prime PHEV only took the third spot globally in 2017, it is well-positioned to win the top spot in PEV sales in 2018.

There is 0% chance Prius Prime outsells Model 3 in 2018. Yes, even Globally.
 
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