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hyperionmark said:
cwerdna said:
Those are really impressive MPGe figures for the Model 3. For awhile, the two most efficient in terms of MPGe were the Chevy Spark EV and the BMW i3 BEV (http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33640&id=35207&id=38557&id=38523).

I do wonder about the Ioniq EV figure and whether the EPA has done their own verification (own testing) of Hyundai's numbers. Or, if they screwed up and will need to downgrade it (ala https://hyundaimpginfo.com/aboutsettlement in the past).
And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?

In real world it is not significant but the S had a smaller motor in the front on the non-P and I doubt that will be the case with the PM motors, likely the same motor front and back with software for separating performance versions.
 
edatoakrun said:
First report of parts order cutbacks.

IMO, a few weeks will eventually be probably extended just a bit forward...to forever.

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Luxury electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) plans to slash by 40 percent its orders for parts for the new Model 3 mass-market sedan from Taiwanese auto component maker Hota Industrial Mfg. Co (1536.TW) from December, according to a media report.

Shares of the parts maker dropped nearly 9 percent after the Economic Daily News reported, citing Hota Chairman Shen Kuo-jung, that Tesla had told the firm orders would be cut to 3,000 sets per week from 5,000 sets starting December, due to a “bottleneck” in the production of Model 3.

Tesla may delay scheduled weekly shipments of 10,000 parts in March by a few weeks until May or June, the report added...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-taiwan-hota/tesla-cuts-model-3-part-orders-to-taiwan-supplier-hota-report-idUSKBN1CW0H4

In the world of "Just In Time" Manufacturing this isn't such a big deal. Simply confirms what we already know. Tesla is behind on production. Which is what everyone assumed and predicted. Not sure why everyone is freaking out. Of bigger concern is that Tesla hasn't figured out how to go from concept to production as quickly as other automakers. Maybe once they start making some money off of the Model 3 and start producing other models on the same platform they'll be a little quicker to respond to customer desires.

This negative news pales in comparison to the positive China news earlier this week. That has the potential to be a gamechanger. It all hinges on the Model 3 though. If they don't sell 500,000 cars a year for a few years they are screwed.
 
webb14leafs said:
Of bigger concern is that Tesla hasn't figured out how to go from concept to production as quickly as other automakers.

I'm not sure we can even say this. Other automakers would have had a longer R&D, prototype, beta, and pre-build and prime the supply chains period. Tesla definitely skipped some of those steps so they could meet a date tweeted by Elon Musk.

For sure it's fair to say that this period of releasing cars only to Tesla & SpaceX employees constitutes a pre-production time. That, however, should take nothing away from the fact that within a few months Tesla is likely to make more Model 3's than the rest of the industry makes EVs combined.
 
edatoakrun said:
First In-Depth look at the Tesla Model 3 | Model 3 Owners Club

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DT0vDMWsq4
Nice prototype, but the many unfinished features and fact that TSLA doesn't even trust its own employees with autopilot (~51 minutes in) yet says a lot about how much development is probably left to do before production begins.
 
edatoakrun said:
edatoakrun said:
First In-Depth look at the Tesla Model 3 | Model 3 Owners Club

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DT0vDMWsq4
Nice prototype, but the many unfinished features and fact that TSLA doesn't even trust its own employees with autopilot (~51 minutes in) yet says a lot about how much development is probably left to do before production begins.


The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.
 
Thanks for posting. This was a very detailed vid.
I only skipped through but my general impression is the 3 is very solid. I had a similar impression of the Bolt when I drove it but my main takeaway was it was not enough car for the $. I think the 3 overcomes that issue. I'm not so hot on the user interface based on what I've seen. It seems to cry out for some level of voice recognition (mirror adjustment for example).
Looking forward to configuring. Still hoping it's this year. My only reference point is an employee who configured his Model 3 back in early August and still no VIN or precise delivery date. So, that's a 6 week slip right there. Our LEAF turns 7 next month and it's about used up.
The wait for that car also took forever and far fewer were in line. First world problems.
 
hyperionmark said:
And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?

Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.
 
EVDRIVER said:
The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.

Totally "a ground up design", absolutely no resources, e.g. the basic AP AI algorithms, pulled from the Mobileye design, right? You know this
as fact, as you're a Tesla AP system consultant or Tesla AP team member, or maybe you just know some of the production line installers?
 
lorenfb said:
EVDRIVER said:
The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.

Totally "a ground up design", absolutely no resources, e.g. the basic AP AI algorithms, pulled from the Mobileye design, right? You know this
as fact, as you're a Tesla AP system consultant or Tesla AP team member, or maybe you just know some of the production line installers?


It is very public that they are doing it in house now. They need to do all new software for the new hardware platform and there is a new team hired in charge which is irrelevant to the point. Anytime a company can leverage resources they do of course, Do you think they just leveraged the old software and were incompetent in uploading it or tweaking it even though they are competent in everything they have done in shorter time periods then any other car company . Then there is Nissan that has been in the business for years and has had the LEAF out longer than any other EV and they have the worst half-baked tech on the market, they are crippled by their culture and management. Oh, and yes I know the person that was hired to do this, and it's a secret conspiracy to defraud the public...... The first part is true. What does a line installer have to do with software development exactly?
 
EVDRIVER said:
lorenfb said:
EVDRIVER said:
The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.

Totally "a ground up design", absolutely no resources, e.g. the basic AP AI algorithms, pulled from the Mobileye design, right? You know this
as fact, as you're a Tesla AP system consultant or Tesla AP team member, or maybe you just know some of the production line installers?


EVDRIVER said:
They need to do all new software for the new hardware platform and there is a new team hired in charge which is irrelevant to the point.

Right, that's basically a re-compile of the original source code to run on the Nvidia processor, and NOT a total redesign.

EVDRIVER said:
Anytime a company can leverage resources they do of course,

Good, so you now agree it's not "a ground up design".

EVDRIVER said:
Do you think they just leveraged the old software and were incompetent in uploading it or tweaking it even though they are competent in everything they have done in shorter time periods then any other car company .

Sounds like you don't understand much about software development.

EVDRIVER said:
Then there is Nissan that has been in the business for years and has had the LEAF out longer than any other EV and they have the worst half-baked tech on the market, they are crippled by their culture and management.

At least the Nissan Leaf achieved its design goals, notwithstanding the battery, which can't said for Tesla with AP1 or AP2.

EVDRIVER said:
Oh, and yes I know the person that was hired to do this, and it's a secret conspiracy to defraud the public...... The first part is true.

Yes, we can all make claims!

EVDRIVER said:
What does a line installer have to do with software development exactly?

Thought that was your source of info, given your comments.
 
Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.
 
EVDRIVER said:
edatoakrun said:
edatoakrun said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DT0vDMWsq4
Nice prototype, but the many unfinished features and fact that TSLA doesn't even trust its own employees with autopilot (~51 minutes in) yet says a lot about how much development is probably left to do before production begins.
The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.
If autopilot and the other features shown in video to still be non-functional ~four months after beginning "production" of model 3s are not major concerns to TSLA management, then both model 3 depositors and TSLA investors should have their own major concerns.
 
EVDRIVER said:
Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.

OK, then say they've augmented the system after switching to the Nvidia processor, that's hardly "a ground up design".
 
lorenfb said:
hyperionmark said:
And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?

Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.
Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094911_tesla-model-s-dual-motor-is-quicker-has-higher-range-too-how-do-they-do-that
 
lorenfb said:
EVDRIVER said:
Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.

OK, then say they've augmented the system after switching to the Nvidia processor, that's hardly "a ground up design".


New brain , new hardware, new software. Augmented? It's not as though they added a few sensors they changed the system dramatically. The 3 is not an augmented version of the S either. New body, new motor design, etc. Yes they use much of the S software but much of it is new on the AP side. The other stuff is very similar and augmented.
 
hyperionmark said:
lorenfb said:
hyperionmark said:
And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?

Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.
Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094911_tesla-model-s-dual-motor-is-quicker-has-higher-range-too-how-do-they-do-that


Unless a P version of the 3 comes with a larger motor then I expect the D version of the 3 to have the same existing motors front and back. The existing Tesla 3 motor is pushed pretty hard and they blew many in testing to get the performance they wanted. A "P" version may be only available in a D package because of this and the PM motor design. So a P version of the 3 may have 0-6 times of the older D model S in the low 4 sec range. This keeps it away from the Model S P versions. Etc...
 
I do not expect performance small motor (one that will fit to 3 and Y) will actually be something really new.
This requires extra investment and not a lot of return. And possible warranty problems later on.
I do expect RWD M3 SR, RWD M3 LR (both available now) and AWD M3 SR plus AWD M3 LR later.
All models likely will have same motor/inverter front and back (different reduction gear and likely different exterior look).
Though maybe, MAYBE, there will be more cooling power or more expensive inverter components.


These four will all give different accelerations. So 4 performance levels, AWD Long Range will be the fastest.
AWD M3 LR is already expensive and extremely fast for this class. Minimum price for that one will be 50 000 $,
far from optimal. And add some expected Premium package, color, and Enhanced AP, this goes up to 61 000 $.
There is not a lot of more juice to suck from 80kWh of cells. Which are thicker (less capable in terms of thermal load).
AWD M3 LR could already use at least 384kW of power with today's small motors.
Compared to Model S battery packs, old 70kWh pack could output 245kW, new 90 pack (with ludicrous fuse) 397kW.
So no. Model 3 will not have 500kW of power. Battery is the limit with AWD M3 LR (~80kWh).
Also, in addition to battery, Model 3 has much smaller cooling capacity. Only one modest aperture between fog lights.

I trademark two additional Model 3 variant names, M3D and M3P - as in Dual motor and Performance :lol:
 
hyperionmark said:
lorenfb said:
hyperionmark said:
And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?

Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.
Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094911_tesla-model-s-dual-motor-is-quicker-has-higher-range-too-how-do-they-do-that

From the reference:
In the standard 85-kWh Model S that most buyers will likely choose, Tesla's new AWD system boosts the range by anywhere from 4 to 19 percent--depending on which of Tesla's contradictory numbers you believe.

Yes, there is an optimum induction motor RPM, and related vehicle speed, which can be somewhat tweaked using two motors,
but it's not all that significant ("contradictory numbers") at all vehicle speeds.
 
arnis said:
I do not expect performance small motor (one that will fit to 3 and Y) will actually be something really new.
This requires extra investment and not a lot of return. And possible warranty problems later on.
I do expect RWD M3 SR, RWD M3 LR (both available now) and AWD M3 SR plus AWD M3 LR later.
All models likely will have same motor/inverter front and back (different reduction gear and likely different exterior look).
Though maybe, MAYBE, there will be more cooling power or more expensive inverter components.


These four will all give different accelerations. So 4 performance levels, AWD Long Range will be the fastest.
AWD M3 LR is already expensive and extremely fast for this class. Minimum price for that one will be 50 000 $,
far from optimal. And add some expected Premium package, color, and Enhanced AP, this goes up to 61 000 $.
There is not a lot of more juice to suck from 80kWh of cells. Which are thicker (less capable in terms of thermal load).
AWD M3 LR could already use at least 384kW of power with today's small motors.
Compared to Model S battery packs, old 70kWh pack could output 245kW, new 90 pack (with ludicrous fuse) 397kW.
So no. Model 3 will not have 500kW of power. Battery is the limit with AWD M3 LR (~80kWh).
Also, in addition to battery, Model 3 has much smaller cooling capacity. Only one modest aperture between fog lights.

I trademark two additional Model 3 variant names, M3D and M3P - as in Dual motor and Performance :lol:


The existing motor may have some room but they had pushed them pretty far because of the weigh of the car. They may be some wiggle room but don't expect any to best an S because of market segmentation until the new S is released.
 
edatoakrun said:
If autopilot and the other features shown in video to still be non-functional ~four months after beginning "production" of model 3s are not major concerns to TSLA management, then both model 3 depositors and TSLA investors should have their own major concerns.

Lack of autopilot might be a concern to some. It's not to me. As much as I would eventually like to get it, I'm not planning on buying it until it has more autonomous capability anyway (yes, I realize it will cost me more at that point in time).

As for the "other" features, can you be more specific? All I really saw were things like Bluetooth streaming (which is available now), FM/XM/AM radio, and maybe something to do with the windshield wipers.

Do these rise to the level of MAJOR concerns for shareholders and depositors? Sounds like a bit of hyperbole for me, given that we know these features have been rolling out since that video was filmed (not sure exactly when it was filmed, but they did hold it for some reason--they said they were going to hold it all the way until non-Tesla configurator opened it up, but I think they realized it was a YouTube gold mine). Like I said, you may have a point with autopilot (which has also been enabled on the Model 3 at this time), but it should come as no surprise to anyone what the current state of Tesla AP is.

I sure do hope that a fair comparison is drawn between this and the whole Nissan 2G TCU debacle, which by the way almost a full year after they (at the last minute) rushed out a 3G solution to the 2G sunset at the end of 2016 that to this day still runs down owners' 12V batteries? Should Nissan shareholders consider this a major concern?
 
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