Official Tesla Model 3 thread

I find it pretty odd that anyone is forced to sign a non-disclosure agreement just to purchase a car: Tesla Muzzling Model 3 Buyers:

Seeking Alpha said:

Since the first Model 3’s were handed over to employee buyers in late July, rumors have been rampant of restrictions being demanded by Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) It would be perfectly understandable if Tesla was giving these cars to employees to test drive and evaluate. But they aren’t. Tesla continues to insist current buyers are paying full retail just like any other outsider. That being the case, what gives Tesla any authority to dictate terms to these buyers?

[…]

1) Buyers are restricted from posting anything negative on social media.

[…]

2) Buyers must retain ownership of their Model 3 for at least one year.

[…]

3) Buyers are prohibited from selling their Model 3 for more than the original purchase price.

[…]

This gets really crazy when it comes to enforcement. Not only does Tesla threaten employees with disciplinary action up to and including termination, they threaten the future buyer!

[...]

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Finally spotted my first Model 3 on the road yesterday, a white one. Noticeably smaller than the Model S, and without the exaggerated shelves on the rear fenders that are my least favorite part of the Model S design. Well, that and the new nose, which looks just as bad on the Model 3 as it does on the Model S and X - to me it gives the front of the cars a blank look, which reminds me of someone with a serious developmental disability (apologies to anyone who is offended - I don't mean to belittle such problems, but that's what comes to mind).

Tesla Model 3 production 'bottlenecks' probed by Financial Times
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/06/tesla-model-3-production-delays-financial-times/

TTAC: Tesla’s Feverish Production Drive Sometimes Means Partial Assembly at Stores: Report
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/11/teslas-feverish-production-drive-sometimes-means-car-assembly-stores-report/

On the positive side, sightings of VINs 869 and 1088 are indications progress continues to be made.

(Now back to your regular naysayers and shorts )

jlv said:

On the positive side, sightings of VINs 869 and 1088 are indications progress continues to be made.

(Now back to your regular naysayers and shorts )

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But first...
A Model 3 review. Guy seems pretty impressed while unflinching about things he doesn't like:

However, I think the interior quality is the 3's biggest drawback, and possibly its only major drawback.
...
I didn't get to drive the Model 3 on too many curvy roads, but I was surprised with its performance in the few quirks where I did drive it. It stayed mostly flat in cornering and delivered no drama, even going fairly fast through some sharp turns. Body roll is minimal and steering is oddly responsive:

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He talks about handling and is not blown away, basically giving it under BMW 340 performance. I would really like to drive a 3 with the 19's on one of my favorite routes for test driving, to see if I want the richer handling, vs. poorer tire life.
Time to take a test drive in a BMW 340 and Audi S3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te6VqldjTT8&feature=youtu.be

Fan-site electrek reports on the trickle of model 3s produced last month.

if TSLA can ever manage to produce 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in December, it won't be in December 2017...

Tesla Model 3 production reached ~440 units to date last month, sources say

As Tesla CEO Elon Musk made clear during the company’s conference call with financial analysts last week, Model 3 production is still very much in “production hell” – so much so that Musk refused to confirm how many Model 3 vehicles they produced in October.

He said that “people would just read too much into it.”

Now we have looked into it and at the end of last month, Tesla had built just over 440 Model 3 vehicles since the start of production in July, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Tesla had already confirmed having produced 260 Model 3 vehicles between July and September and it delivered 220 of those vehicles.

It means that Tesla built roughly 180 Model 3 vehicles last month.

That’s clearly not where Tesla wanted to be at that point.

Musk made it clear that the production ramp would be difficult to predict and therefore, he emphasized to take the company’s guidance lightly – though they disclosed their main goal to produce 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in December...

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https://electrek.co/2017/11/09/tesla-model-3-production-numbers/

Going to change my speculation on the AWD3. The AWD model will actually have an induction motor in the front and a PM motor in the rear. Different inverters will be used depending on the configuration with the AWD having lower power on each of the front and rear but only slightly higher total power than the standard RWD PM version. Any "P" version will likely have a higher power front inverter. It is most likely that the initial D version will have the same or slightly higher 0-6 with the P version more likely only in an AWD version with a larger inverter up front. Presently the max current on a M3 is 800A and likely will remain close to that on the PM motors.

I still have a reservation on a model 3 but I'm not positive I'll get one. They are clearly delayed in manufacturing (and will be more so I think) such that federal tax credit will disappear on this thing. Then I'm looking at a ton of money with little in the way of credits. Hard to justify given what it is.

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EVDRIVER said:

lorenfb said:

EVDRIVER said:

The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.

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Totally "a ground up design", absolutely no resources, e.g. the basic AP AI algorithms, pulled from the Mobileye design, right? You know this
as fact, as you're a Tesla AP system consultant or Tesla AP team member, or maybe you just know some of the production line installers?

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It is very public that they are doing it in house now. They need to do all new software for the new hardware platform and there is a new team hired in charge which is irrelevant to the point. Anytime a company can leverage resources they do of course, Do you think they just leveraged the old software and were incompetent in uploading it or tweaking it even though they are competent in everything they have done in shorter time periods then any other car company . Then there is Nissan that has been in the business for years and has had the LEAF out longer than any other EV and they have the worst half-baked tech on the market, they are crippled by their culture and management. Oh, and yes I know the person that was hired to do this, and it's a secret conspiracy to defraud the public...... The first part is true. What does a line installer have to do with software development exactly?

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Tesla got away from mobileye a while ago. They've been working on their own system for a couple of yeasr (?). The model 3 has substantially the same hardware as the model s. Surely it working on the same overall inputs and outputs. It is strange they have yet to allow this on the model 3.

I't obvious that the model they showed us in july was still a beta. It wasn't production because it has some major components not implemented yet. I also understand they have still been modifying the design even after the july 28 date, swapping some parts in and out here and there. The Jul 28 was not a final production vehicle despite intimations to the contrary.

It's probably convenient for the software team that the manufacturing line is having such trouble because they can hold off on features by saying they'll be ready by the time the general public takes receipt of the car.

^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I still have a reservation on a model 3 but I'm not positive I'll get one. They are clearly delayed in manufacturing (and will be more so I think) such that federal tax credit will disappear on this thing. Then I'm looking at a ton of money with little in the way of credits. Hard to justify given what it is.

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The federal tax credit was going to disappear on it whether the delay happened or not. Tesla is getting very close to their allotment. If you were pretty early in line you would likely still get the tax credit. Also, the Senate plan has the tax credit still in place.

Actually there was a run of 40K model S cars ( gen2 autopilot) that are different than the newest S and 3 platform, there is the old Mobile eye and a new gen system. the first run of the new gen system may require a hardware recall on those 40K cars to get full autonomous driving. The new hardware platform needs all new software as they are not compatible in any way and even if they had been they could not use the mobile eye software. The new software was mandatory and anyone that looks at the details of the design will understand why none of the old code could be leveraged.

hyperionmark said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I still have a reservation on a model 3 but I'm not positive I'll get one. They are clearly delayed in manufacturing (and will be more so I think) such that federal tax credit will disappear on this thing. Then I'm looking at a ton of money with little in the way of credits. Hard to justify given what it is.

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The federal tax credit was going to disappear on it whether the delay happened or not. Tesla is getting very close to their allotment. If you were pretty early in line you would likely still get the tax credit. Also, the Senate plan has the tax credit still in place.

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Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.

cwerdna said:

^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).

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This explains a lot. I have recently rode in two newer Teslas and AP had issues both times and the conditions were ideal. Daylight, sunny, well marked lanes, etc.

From my experience, Tesla's AP is far far far from something I would trust completely.

^^^
I'm not saying these are the best posts on this, but here are a few I quickly found by Googling:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ap2-8-1-test-drive-perspective-from-ap1-owner.88597/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ap1-vs-ap2-from-someone-who-owns-both.98582/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-ap1-is-more-stable-than-ap2.97157/

I'm sure you can find more by Googling for stuff like site:teslamotorsclub.com ap1 ap2 parity and limiting results to some recent period of time like the past 6 months or year.

DaveinOlyWA said:

cwerdna said:

^^^
Indeed. AP1 was based on Mobileye whereas AP2 (current) is not. AP2 was a result of the divorce from Mobileye.

If one hangs around long enough on "TMC", there are tons of folks who've had extensive experience with both (e.g. had a Model S w/AP1 (or still have) and have another vehicle (S or X) with AP2) who will tell you that AP2 is still now generally worse in functionality and not at reliability parity with AP1 (e.g. car will keep wanting to take exits, wants to veer out of lane or into a wall).

Click to expand...

This explains a lot. I have recently rode in two newer Teslas and AP had issues both times and the conditions were ideal. Daylight, sunny, well marked lanes, etc.

From my experience, Tesla's AP is far far far from something I would trust completely.

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The obvious reason it is not up to snuff with the old one is it is essentially still being improved and still a bit behind the G1 but not significantly. The capabilities in the new hardware are significantly greater than the older platform but it requires massive software development to get it on par and to full auto of course. If Tesla can't deliver on the software side through any means then Tesla is going to get slaughtered, one would expect they can and it's not just an educated guess on their part. Besides, at this point all versions of all AP on all cars today require driver hands on the wheel at all times. I guess many people choose to ignore that detail or drive on twisty mountain roads at night. AP works very well as it is intended, In stop and go traffic it is great and makes those situations tolerable. I have seen the actual in-car video of many Tesla cars avoid major accidents including one of a friend that was "paying attention". The car braked and avoided the car veering into another lane, quite impressive.

EVDRIVER said:

Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.

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Well yes, and no. All else being equal, what you say is true. It avoids the headwind that Tesla would face as its competitors had yet to reach the phase out. This would likely mean one quarter for GM, 3-4 quarters for Nissan & BMW, and more than a year for everyone else.

But unfortunately all is not equal.

The effect of losing the tax credit will not permanently harm the industry--the momentum towards electrification and the direction the rest of the world is going in is enough so that it's only a question of when, not if, the industry becomes electric. But the loss of the tax credit will delay the timing of what I call the tipping point, where EVs become cheaper to purchase than ICE and it's game over for ICE.

Now other automakers can afford to wait that out. Tesla cannot. They have spent a ton of money on the Gigafactory and equipment for Model 3. They cannot afford to sell Model 3's at a loss for a year until economies of scale put them in the black.

So the big winner would be GM. Then Nissan and then Tesla.

Now if in fact removal of the credit doesn't happen in 2018 but 2019, then yes, I think Tesla will certainly be the big winner.

lpickup said:

EVDRIVER said:

Loss of the credit would likely benefit Tesla, since they are almost done with the credit pulling it makes new entires to the market less competitive in price as they are just starting. To Tesla it's actually more of a win to have it pulled at this point unless they extended the production caps which will never happen.

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...

Now other automakers can afford to wait that out. Tesla cannot. They have spent a ton of money on the Gigafactory and equipment for Model 3. They cannot afford to sell Model 3's at a loss for a year until economies of scale put them in the black.
...

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The tax credit has nothing to do with corporate profits. The manufacturer sells the car at a price that hopefully includes some profit, and if the government wants to give some of that money back to the consumer in the form of a tax credit, it should have no bearing on corporate profits.

A company could conceivably price a car $7500 more than they would otherwise knowing that the consumer would get that back, but that is another subject.

Either way, Tesla's ability to get into the black on Model 3 is in their own hands. They need to solve their manufacturing and logistics issues and get sales numbers up and costs down.

Tax credit going away completely will be a non issue for Tesla. Having it go away only for Tesla due to their sales numbers is a bigger problem. I've always felt the setup was unfair to GM, Nissan and Tesla for being the first movers. They will have theirs eliminated and then newcomers/latecomers will have an advantage. It should have been a total vehicle production across all MFG's to sunset the program, not individual numbers.

palmermd said:

I've always felt the setup was unfair to GM, Nissan and Tesla for being the first movers. They will have theirs eliminated and then newcomers/latecomers will have an advantage. It should have been a total vehicle production across all MFG's to sunset the program, not individual numbers.

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I agree, and if the government rescinds the tax credit, I'll chose to look at it that way.