When will Nissan reach 100k a year (200k?, 300k?) Gen two LEAF sales target?

[edatoakrun]

If Nissan is as serious about making money on the Gen two as it says it is, and refusing to cut prices below cost, then the sales rate will depend largely on conditions outside Nissan's control, economic conditions, gas prices, and incentive levels in major markets.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it reached an annual sales rate of ~100k worldwide in the first year after production reaches full speed in all three factories.

So, I'll guess ~50k produced for the 2018 MY, and the first ~100k Gen two LEAFs sold by 4/1/19.

Nissan's new Leaf puts reality before romanticism

TOKYO -- Nissan Motor's revamped Leaf, its signature fully-electric car, is slated to go on sale in Japan on Monday.

The new model from an automaker that calls itself an electric-car leader has a sales target of 100,000 or so units a year. The number does not sound particularly ambitious, considering that rival Tesla's latest Model 3 attracted 500,000 or so orders.

Behind Nissan's moderate attitude is a bitter lesson of struggling to balance the dream and the reality of pushing the next-generation vehicles.

"Sustainability is the most essential thing for a business," said Hideyuki Sakamoto, executive vice president of the automaker. "Nissan isn't a gambler." The comment was an indication that the automaker would not try to sell as many Leafs as possible by offering low prices...

While adequately featuring state-of-the-art technology, Nissan made the most of parts from the previous Leaf to achieve the desired cost-profitability balance for the revamped version.

"The new Leaf is not a loss-making model," said a Nissan executive...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... ism?page=1

In comparison, it took Nissan over three years to sell 100k Gen one LEAFs:

When will LEAF sales reach 100,000?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13514&start=10

11/7 edit title to add: (200k?, 300k?)

[Jedlacks]

I'm not convinced that they need to sell 100k a year. They do make other cars that they are also trying to make money on. It is also obvious to all of us that they are not trying to compete with Tesla in range or luxury.

[webb14leafs]

Global or US?

I'll guess 20 months, with sales of the 2019 model really taking off. If the charging infrastructure makes huge leaps in the US, then this could change quickly.

The Gen 1 has been selling at a clip of around 50,000 units per year for the last 3 years. I would expect the Gen 2 to exceed that, with European sales leading the charge. European and Japanese drivers generally have shorter commutes, better access to charging and a love of hatchbacks.

[edatoakrun]

If Nissan is as serious about making money on the Gen two as it says it is, and refusing to cut prices below cost, then the sales rate will depend largely on conditions outside Nissan's control, economic conditions, gas prices, and incentive levels in major markets.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it reached an annual sales rate of ~100k worldwide in the first year after production reaches full speed in all three factories.

So, I'll guess ~50k produced for the 2018 MY, and the first ~100k Gen two LEAFs sold by 4/1/19...

Starting to look like I may have underestimated both Nissan's production capabilities and demand for the 2018:

New Nissan LEAF Sales Booming, 9,000 In Less Than 2 Months

Sales/orders of the new Nissan LEAF in under 2 months and in limited markets have already exceeded the amount of sales in 12 months of the first-gen LEAF when it went on sale back in 2010.

Nissan Europe EV Director Gareth Dunsmore says he’s thrilled by the level of interest in the new 2018 LEAF. According to Dunsmore, some 3,500 new LEAFs have been sold in Europe, despite only being available there since early September.

Even more impressive perhaps is the total figure, which Dunsmore says stands at 9,000 strong in terms of new LEAF orders (not all delivered yet) in Europe and Japan combined.

Dunsmore says that new LEAF orders have far exceed the automaker’s expectations, though he didn’t provide a figure for comparison between actual versus expectations...

Asako Hoshino, Nissan’s senior vice president and head of Japan operations, confirmed these higher-than-expected order figures for the new LEAF at the Tokyo Motor Show just yesterday...

Source: Automotive News Europe

https://insideevs.com/new-nissan-leaf-s ... -counting/

[webb14leafs]

I saw that article as well. My prediction of 20 months was clearly off base. The demand in Europe is huge, and 150 miles of range is plenty in countries like Norway, Sweden, etc... They have a massive charging infrastructure and crazy incentives.

Can't forget that Europeans LOVE LOVE LOVE Hatchbacks!!! Will be interesting how the Model 3 will perform over there. Of course, if they develop a Model 3 hatchback that looks anything like fan renderings it will do great!!

[Reddy]

I saw the article too, but read "sales/orders" to mean "orders". I can easily see that they have collected a few thousand pre-orders, but probably haven't actually sold that many yet. Obviously, they will deliver in Japan first and probably Europe/US concurrently. Maybe I'm wrong and they've already delivered some in Europe (remember the Bolt is in high demand, but not being allowed to be sold). In any case, eventually, just like Leaf 1, the Leaf 2 will sell only as many cars as Nissan actually produces. Yes, I'm sure that Gen two sales will exceed 100,000/yr world-wide, but probably not until 2019.

[edatoakrun]

After the never-ending TSLA model 3 soap opera, the commentator seems almost shocked that a BEV manufacturer can actually deliver...

Nissan Shows How To Launch An EV Right, Almost 4,000 LEAF Sales In Debut Month For Japan

The new 2018 Nissan LEAF arrived last month in Japan. The refreshed 150 mile/241 km EV (locally rated at an impossible 400 km/249 miles) first when on sale domestically on October 1st, and demand was strong to say the least. Better still, Nissan knows what to do with demand – fill it!

For October, the LEAF set a new all-time sales record with 3,629 deliveries! Making the LEAF the 19th best selling car in Japan for the month.

In other words, Nissan may not have the very best EV out there (we’d really like to see that ~200 mile, affordable CUV already), but Nissan knows how to build EVs right…there was no showing off the vehicle and then teasing it for the next 2 years, no limited production at launch and a gradual roll-out over a year, no production “bottlenecks” because it had not put in the work yet, no building capacity for only a token amount.

…but rather Nissan announced the vehicle to the world only once volume production was already coming off the line (in this case from Nissan’s Oppama, Japan assembly facility), and took just 26 days from the model’s global debut (September 5th) to hit the first customer’s driveway.

Refreshing.

For the month, LEAF sales in Japan increased by 607% over the year prior, and shot the YTD number to 12,707 deliveries; so we expect that 2017 will be the best year of LEAF sales ever. Since December 2010, Nissan has delivered more than 85,000 LEAFs in Japan.

Nissan has said it expects to sell (“conservatively”) upwards of 150,000 copies of the new LEAF per year (3x historical norms for the 1st generation). It would appear the assembly of that many vehicles won’t be a problem – now to see if demand will be as strong.

Production of the new LEAF has now begun in Nissan’s Smyrna, TN plant, and also in the company’s Sunderland, UK plant (with China to follow). First deliveries are expected in the US and Europe in about 8 weeks...

https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales ... ober-2017/

[LeftieBiker]

Nissan is going to have a lot of trouble selling Leafs in the US if the tax credit is killed. They need to make the cars available here to buy and lease before 12/31/17.

[edatoakrun]

Nissan is going to have a lot of trouble selling Leafs in the US if the tax credit is killed. They need to make the cars available here to buy and lease before 12/31/17.

With the republiscum collapse in the elections yesterday, the tax credit seems much more secure today.

Nissan has probably already begun a slow ramp-up of production, but may want to hit a big number in the first sales month.

Nissan is building several other models at Smyrna, and operating near full production, so it's not like its in TSLAs predicament of having thousands of employees sitting on their gigabuts as the model # parts stack up in warehouses, and its last financial resources continue to burn.

Further explanation of 2018 LEAF sales/delivery numbers to date in the article below.

Now that the Japanese plants have reopened, we may find out about what total LEAF production capacity in Japan is with December or January delivery numbers, probably between 5 k and 10 k per month.

Nissan sells some 14,000 of the new electric LEAF in its first month

Including pre-orders, the LEAF actually sold 9,600 units in Japan in October. Together with a little over 4,000 LEAFs sold in Europe, Nissan’s 2nd generation EV found around 14,000 happy buyers globally by end of October, and wait until it comes to the U.S., where it should be available in January.

But what about the 3,629 reported for October? These are actual October registrations, reported by the Japanese government via Japan’s Automobile Dealer Association. In Japan, when a car is sold, the order goes to the factory, where the car is produced to spec, and when that is done, it is registered by the dealer, and the customer takes possession. These are firm orders, no $1,000 refundable deposits. A total of 9,600 LEAF were sold in Japan, Nissan’s domestic sales chief Asako Hoshino said today at Nissan’s quarterly results conference in Yokohama. All but 3,629 could not be delivered, because Nissan is in the throes of an inspection scandal that continues to make headlines in the island nation, and which is largely not understood elsewhere.

On October 19, Nissan stopped all deliveries to the Japanese market. As a result, Nissan’s total October registrations were nearly cut in half in Japan, while its actual sales continued unimpeded...

https://dailykanban.com/2017/11/nissan- ... rst-month/

[LeftieBiker]

With the republiscum collapse in the elections yesterday, the tax credit seems much more secure today.

Really? How many Senate seats did they lose? Did the House flip? Or do you believe that state Governors control US tax policy?