TSLA corporate outlook

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Auto journalists and those who plunked down their deposits long ago can't get test drives, but those most important to TSLAs cash-burning business plans seem to have plenty of opportunities:

Tesla is taking big investors for a joy ride in the Model 3

Tesla is inviting institutional investors to take a joy ride in the Model 3 this weekend.

An invitation, which was viewed by CNBC, was sent to clients and prospective clients of UBS. It says drivers at the closed-door event will be accompanied by Tesla representatives and barred from taking photos or videos.

The event will take place at Tesla's Red Hook showroom and service center on Saturday. A Tesla spokesperson didn't respond to a request for comment.

Earlier this week, Tesla also hosted Wall Street analysts at various events. Teams from RBC Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs, for example, were permitted to drive the Model 3 (at least for a few blocks) accompanied by representatives from Tesla investor relations...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/tesla-is-inviting-institutional-investors-for-a-model-3-joy-ride.html

In "production" for over four months, and TSLA still couldn't find two screwed together right?

I shudder to think what the other ~400 model 3 prototypes must look like...

Bernstein analyst finds Tesla Model 3’s fit and finish ‘relatively poor’ after test drive

A real-life Model 3 demonstration did not alter one Wall Street analyst's skeptical view of Tesla.

"We had the opportunity to see and test drive the Model 3 at Tesla's showroom in Red Hook Brooklyn, NY … Fit and finish on the two demo cars we saw – perhaps not surprisingly – was relatively poor," Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Friday...

"Our inspection revealed widespread shortcomings in fit and finish ... Tesla representatives acknowledged some of the fit issues, but stated that they believed that Model 3 was much further ahead than where Model X and S had been at this point in production," he wrote.

"We do find the statements credible, we can't help noting that Tesla likely chose to share with us its highest quality/best assembled units, so issues on other cars may be even more pronounced."...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/bernstein-analyst-finds-tesla-model-3s-fit-and-finish-relatively-poor-after-test-drive.html
 
Tesla is going through a very predictable crisis, much as Tesla did to start production of the Roadster and the Models S.

It will make Tesla stronger, or kill Tesla. My opinion is a coin flip. Worth nothing, as I'm not willing to bet on the outcome.

Tesla has a market capitalization of $51 billion, which is a tiny fraction of the $25,000 billion total US market.
 
WetEV said:
Tesla has a market capitalization of $51 billion, which is a tiny fraction of the $25,000 billion total US market.
I wouldn't look at it as a tiny fraction of US market.... by that argument, TM (Toyota Motor), GM and F (Ford) are also tiny fractions.

What's nutty is the TSLA's market cap is insane vs. GM's over $60 billion and Ford's $47.7 billion. Look at their positive net incomes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/gm/financials?p=gm and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/financials?p=F) vs. TSLA's red ink (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tsla/financials?p=tsla). GM sells about 10 million vehicles a year and Ford over 6 million a year, both earning comfortable usually multi-billion $ profits each year. GM and Toyota each in a week far outproduce and outsell what TSLA does in an entire year.
 
cwerdna said:
...What's nutty is the TSLA's market cap is insane vs. GM's over $60 billion and Ford's $47.7 billion. Look at their positive net incomes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/gm/financials?p=gm and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/financials?p=F) vs. TSLA's red ink (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tsla/financials?p=tsla). GM sells about 10 million vehicles a year and Ford over 6 million a year, both earning comfortable usually multi-billion $ profits each year. GM and Toyota each in a week far outproduce and outsell what TSLA does in an entire year.
I agree that the TSLA price is crazy by any fundamental valuation measure. That is often the case with speculative "momentum" stocks. Things would have to go right for a long, long time for the company to grow into the stock valuation. It famously happened with AMZN, but that is something of a rare exception.
 
One of many Autopsy reports written about TSLA.

Expect them to really proliferate once TSLA is taken off life support, when additional cash infusions end:

Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline


Financial performance deteriorates - structural unprofitability likely.

Most cash raised recently is already burnt - next equity sale looms.

Institutional ownership declines - distribution continues.

Management churn accelerates - corporate culture looks damaged.

Only the story matters - the stock remains a trade vehicle.


...Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) financial performance deteriorates at an alarming rate...

The Tesla narrative is based on an illusion, a contradictio in adjecto - the promise that humankind can shop and consume itself into a sustainable future. However, even a million Teslas on the world’s roads will not impact the environment for better or worse. It is a systemic issue. The Financial Times agrees. Sustainability and promoting the purchase of raw-material consuming heavyweight products are mutually exclusive. There is no right life in the wrong, to paraphrase Theodor Adorno.

At the time of writing, the company’s precarious financial position shows that it remains a bottomless pit. Let’s go in.

1. Stock

2. Finances

3. Perspective

4. Management

5. Market

6. Sales

7. Model 3

8. Autopilot

9. Distractions...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122890-tesla-approaches-terminal-decline
 
The linked SA article & financial advice offered come from Andreas Hopf, ranked about 3700 out of 6800 stock pickers on TipRanks.
Hopf has a whopping 2 stocks to lend advice on: TSLA and BB. Both "Sell". Neither were especially good sell points although BB did go lower a few months after but is now higher than the Sell point. TSLA is no lower than it was when he recommended selling 7 months ago.
Didn't bother to read the article since it's just Tesla click-bait. Waste of time.
 
sparky said:
The linked SA article & financial advice offered come from Andreas Hopf, ranked about 3700 out of 6800 stock pickers on TipRanks.
Hopf has a whopping 2 stocks to lend advice on: TSLA and BB. Both "Sell". Neither were especially good sell points although BB did go lower a few months after but is now higher than the Sell point. TSLA is no lower than it was when he recommended selling 7 months ago.
Didn't bother to read the article since it's just Tesla click-bait. Waste of time.
That's all they ever post on here. Nothing but shorter written articles. We can rest easy knowing that Tesla has proven haters wrong time and time again. Not worth responding to their drivel.
 
hyperionmark said:
sparky said:
...
Didn't bother to read the article since it's just Tesla click-bait. Waste of time.
That's all they ever post on here. Nothing but shorter written articles...
Actually, the comment I linked was rather comprehensive and long, as it had to be to present that long laundry-list of major blunders by TSLA management.

Two shorter reports in wider-publication, making some of the same points are here:

Tesla risks being overtaken by the competition
https://www.ft.com/content/3d5a79c4-c468-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656

TESLA’S
DANGEROUS
SPRINT
INTO
THE
FUTURE
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/07/magazine/tech-design-future-autonomous-cars-factory-tesla-sustainability-gigafactory.html

Of course, you may not want to read any current reports on TSLA's corporate outlook.

I can well imagine why many TSLA investors, or just garden-variety fanboys, might want to shut out all reality-based reports, at this time.
 
So far, no indication of significant falloff of support among Model 3 res. holders. Via IEVS:
Tesla Model 3 Depositors Seem Willing To Wait Out Delays
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-depositors-willing-wait/

Even if a handful of Tesla Model 3 reservation holders cancel, the automaker still has hundreds of thousands of orders to fill, and it appears few are even considering canceling.

Bloomberg News asked 20 Model 3 reservation holders if they intend to cancel, and at this point, not a single one is doing so. Two of the 20 have considered it, but are still holding out. . . .

The recent announcement that House Republicans intend to immediately eliminate the federal EV tax credit may complicate the matter even further. However, even if the rebate isn’t repealed, Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles sold in the U.S. soon enough (which harkens the wind-down of the $7,500 crdit 91-180 days later). If delays continue, a majority of those tax credits will go to Model S and X buyers, rather than Model 3 buyers. Nonetheless, Baird analyst Ben Kallo insists:

  • “Even if 10 percent cancel because of delays and 10 percent cancel because of tax credits, Tesla has hundreds of thousands of reservations. And very few people have actually seen, much less ridden, in the car yet.”
Some of the Model 3 reservation holders interviewed by Bloomberg seem to be okay with not getting the credit. New York attorney, David Tayar, said:
  • “It’s not like I would be getting a tax credit if I bought an ICE.”
Nissan LEAF owner and Uber driver had really hoped for the credit. He made a point of getting in line overnight to assure an early reservation. He shared:

  • “I wanted to be early in line to get that tax credit.

    If it goes away, I’ll just have to adjust my budget and pay. I’m not happy about the delays, but I’m willing to wait. We know that Tesla has made a few hundred Model 3s, so we know that it is real, and we know that more are coming.”
It continues to appear that some people are so enamored with Tesla and CEO Elon Musk that it honestly doesn’t matter what the company does, they will continue their support. Tesla fans don’t see the automaker in the same way that they see legacy OEMs, and they don’t hold Tesla to the same standards. While this may not be fair in some people’s eyes, there’s an attitude that Tesla is a new automaker, a startup, something different, and its path is a difficult one, so Tesla should be cut some slack.
 
Tesla just pulled in $250 million in deposits ($250k) for signature roadsters, likely 10's of millions in other roadster deposits ($50k), and who knows how many millions in deposits for the semi truck. Genius!
 
palmermd said:
Tesla just pulled in $250 million in deposits ($250k) for signature roadsters, likely 10's of millions in other roadster deposits ($50k), and who knows how many millions in deposits for the semi truck. Genius!

True, that was pretty smart of them. It gives them access to cash without having to tap the financial markets.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
palmermd said:
Tesla just pulled in $250 million in deposits ($250k) for signature roadsters, likely 10's of millions in other roadster deposits ($50k), and who knows how many millions in deposits for the semi truck. Genius!

True, that was pretty smart of them. It gives them access to cash without having to tap the financial markets.
How confident are we they will be able to deliver these vehicles?
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
How confident are we they will be able to deliver these vehicles?
That was exactly my thought when I originally heard of the Roadster.
That was exactly my thought when I originally heard of the plans for the S ("I don't think they'll last that long").
That was exactly my thought when they announced the X and then the 3.

So far they've been delivering these vehicles, albeit behind schedule every single time.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
GetOffYourGas said:
palmermd said:
Tesla just pulled in $250 million in deposits ($250k) for signature roadsters, likely 10's of millions in other roadster deposits ($50k), and who knows how many millions in deposits for the semi truck. Genius!

True, that was pretty smart of them. It gives them access to cash without having to tap the financial markets.
How confident are we they will be able to deliver these vehicles?

It doesn't matter. All that matters is that there are people confident enough to risk $50k-$250k of their money in order to get a place in line.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
How confident are we they will be able to deliver these vehicles?
The 2020 Roadster appeared to be quite functional during the event! It's not production ready, of course, but it seems to me that it should be much easier for Tesla to produce a limited number of high-end Roadsters than to ramp up mass production of a more affordable car. That said, I am optimistic that Tesla will make it through "production hell" with the Model 3 and life will go on...
 
They need to start recognizing revenue on the M3 in substantial numbers delivered. I'm concerned the investment community patience will run out.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
palmermd said:
Tesla just pulled in $250 million in deposits ($250k) for signature roadsters, likely 10's of millions in other roadster deposits ($50k), and who knows how many millions in deposits for the semi truck. Genius!
True, that was pretty smart of them. It gives them access to cash without having to tap the financial markets.
Or, a sign of desperation, since indications are financial markets may be growing tired of TSLA's endless losses and broken promises.

With the model 3's failure to launch, it appears the semi and the (it's NOT a) roadster production announcements were fictional projections required by TSLA's dire financial weakness.

Tesla's unfettered ambition will drain finances: analysts

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) may have to ask creditors and shareholders for more capital to fund development of an electric semi truck, a new roadster and accelerated production of a high-volume electric sedan, analysts said on Friday.

Musk unveiled one flashy strategy for generating cash during the launch event Thursday for the Semi truck, surprising the audience with a prototype of a new generation of the Tesla Roadster. Musk promised the Roadster will be the fastest production car available. The first 1,000 cars will cost $250,000 each, paid in full upfront, with later models starting at $200,000...

Musk did not offer details about how Tesla would generate additional funds to deliver the semi truck and the roadster, and overcome production problems that have hobbled production of the company’s high-volume sedan, the Model 3.

Tesla spent $1.1 billion on its auto business in the third quarter, and expects expenses of $1 billion in the current one. It had about $3.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Sept. 30...

Tesla’s last debt sale in August was well-received in a hot bond market, allowing the company to increase the offering to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion. But the bond has underperformed in the secondary market, suggesting it could be more challenging for Tesla to tap the high-yield debt market again so soon.

“They are losing $1.5 billion a quarter and the bond is unsecured so it is not of interest to me,” said Jim Brilliant, chief investment officer at Century Management.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-will-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4

Opinion: Tesla dangles 2 shiny electric objects to distract from production reality

The new Roadster and Semi are undoubtedly cool. They're also just diversions


...CNN reports that in fixing the Model 3’s production woes, Tesla has burned through $1.3 billion in the most recent quarter and estimates it could take another $1 billion to get the entry-level sedan up to speed -- not to mention the cash needed to start Roadster production and that of another recently announced project, the Tesla Semi...

Clearly a cash infusion is needed -- lo and behold, $50,000 deposits are immediately being taken for the Roadster. I’ll bet they are. Meanwhile, Tesla executives claim the company has enough money to get Model 3 production up to 5,000 a week by March, adding that once that happens, the company will have the money needed to get the Roadster started.

Based on Musk’s track record, there’s little reason to believe ... well, any of it frankly. It all sounds like what Musk hopes is going to happen. The old saying, "hope is not a strategy," has fit Tesla perfectly so far. To say I’m skeptical is a massive understatement.
http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/tesla-dangles-shiny-objects-distract-reality

Tesla’s debut of road-rocket Roadster and electric semi-truck raise big questions

PALO ALTO — A day after Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled a $200,000 supercar and an electric semi-truck, questions were swirling about whether the infamously tardy company can meet its own delivery deadlines.

In a performance resembling theater Thursday night near Los Angeles, Musk revealed an electric semi-truck and — surprise — inside it was a new edition of the firm’s first vehicle, the Roadster. The car, he said, sets world speed records, and the truck outperforms diesel in every way.

But skepticism met Musk’s claims that the truck would be available in 2019 and the Roadster in 2020. In the company’s most recent earnings report, Musk admitted that production of Tesla’s entry-level sedan, the Model 3, had been delayed three months, and that the company had suffered a $619 million quarterly loss...

Deposits for Tesla vehicles have become key to the company’s finances, said CFRA analyst Efraim Levy. Hundreds of thousands of people have put down $1,000 to reserve the Model 3, bringing Tesla hundreds of millions of dollars. For the 1,000 “Founders Series” Roadsters, customers must deposit $5,000, then pay the additional $245,000 within 10 days. The standard Roadster requires $5,000 down, then $45,000 within 10 days, plus another $150,000 upon delivery.

“This is a funding strategy,” Levy said...
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/17/teslas-debut-of-road-rocket-roadster-and-electric-semi-truck-raise-big-questions/
 
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