Tesla Semi Truck

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I happen to think that for UK conditions he's right about the performance being irrelevant. 20 years strikes me as too high, though, and the other advantages of BEV trucks, assuming TCO will be competitive and the infrastructure will be built, will be quite useful. Still not competitive for long-haul at this time, but excellent for distribution and delivery in urban areas.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
It seems to me that he's right and wrong at the same time. They probably are about 20 years away from total electrification (including heavy-duty long-haul trucking). But he's wrong if he's saying they're 20 years away from having something very useful. The Tesla Semi has a whole host of applications for which it is well suited today. Tesla will have no problem selling as many as they can build. Once they get through "production hell" for the Model 3, and if they can do the same with the Semi...
Exactly. Just like BEV cars there are lots of applications for the current generation of these vehicles TODAY.

The difference with the Tesla Truck is that BEV cars offer very little in terms of a FINANCIAL incentive to purchase them today. With the semi trucks, there are multiple avenues for the trucking companies to benefit: reduced fuel costs, bringing fuel production in-house (via solar) which can further reduce and stabilize fuel costs, reduced maintenance costs including personnel, and eventually the elimination of the driver and an increase in the number of hours the vehicle can stay on the road. Really, if Tesla can make these trucks work AND if the trucking industry can figure out how to produce enough electricity and build out the fueling infrastructure, these will take off. It will take time, but the writing is now on the wall.

But there are nearly a million jobs on the line, so expect the teamsters union to fight this transition tooth-and-nail as BEV trucking grows. Lots of people's livelihoods are on the line. It will be interesting to see how people adapt as more-and-more jobs are lost to automation.
 
RegGuheert said:
Just like BEV cars there are lots of applications for the current generation of these vehicles TODAY.

Yes, but the applications must be cost-effective overall. Additionally, it's naive to assume that no truck manufacturer has considered
what Tesla has recently proposed for its semi.

RegGuheert said:
The difference with the Tesla Truck is that BEV cars offer very little in terms of a FINANCIAL incentive to purchase them today. With the semi trucks, there are multiple avenues for the trucking companies to benefit: reduced fuel costs, bringing fuel production in-house (via solar) which can further reduce and stabilize fuel costs, reduced maintenance costs including personnel, and eventually the elimination of the driver and an increase in the number of hours the vehicle can stay on the road.

There's nothing strategic about the potential of Tesla producing a semi, i.e. the technology is widely known and available to all, there's
no key barrier to entry, there's no key eco-system that Tesla can leverage like the SC infrastructure for consumer vehicles, etc.
Furthermore, Tesla still must rely on Panasonic for battery technology and for production know-how after all the years having produced
the MS & MX. Again, the same problems today that exist with BEVs and limit their adoption, i.e. charging times & infrastructure,
also are major obstacles for a battery powered semi.

RegGuheert said:
Really, if Tesla can make these trucks work AND if the trucking industry can figure out how to produce enough
electricity and build out the fueling infrastructure, these will take off. It will take time, but the writing is now on the wall.

Really? Tesla is not even profitable now producing a relatively low volume high-end luxury vehicles where the annual volume is even
greater than for a semi.
 
lorenfb said:
Yes, but the applications must be cost-effective overall.
Of course, but this application provides significant margin to allow for profitable entry into the space.
lorenfb said:
Additionally, it's naive to assume that no truck manufacturer has considered what Tesla has recently proposed for its semi.
Considered? And dismissed because they are making too much money selling diesel trucks?
lorenfb said:
There's nothing strategic about the potential of Tesla producing a semi,...
Right...
lorenfb said:
...i.e. the technology is widely known and available to all,...
Oh, yeah, I see BEV semi trucks EVERYWHERE. :roll: And I saw some 600-kWh batteries down at Lowe's the other day.
lorenfb said:
...there's no key barrier to entry,...
Tell me, if "the technology is widely known and available to all" and "there's no key barrier to entry", then why aren't these things everywhere? The answer is simple: This is new technology AND there are massive barriers to entry. Speaking of massive barriers to entry, your next sentence reads:
lorenfb said:
...there's no key eco-system that Tesla can leverage like the SC infrastructure for consumer vehicles, etc.
Within the same sentence you claim there is "no key barrier to entry" and then you name a massive key barrier to entry: lack of charging infrastructure. And guess what: Tesla didn't "leverage" the SuperCharger infrastructure - they BUILT it. They did that to knock down a massive barrier to entry for their products. Because of that, Tesla is UNIQUELY positioned to build the MegaCharger network that is needed to refuel electric trucks. Feel free to post information about any other semi-truck manufacturer who is designing Li-ion battery chargers at rates above 1 MW. That would require very specialized expertise that those companies do not possess.
lorenfb said:
Furthermore, Tesla still must rely on Panasonic for battery technology and for production know-how after all the years having produced the MS & MX.
In other words, Tesla is light-years ahead of all other semi-truck manufacturers because they are working out the manufacturing processes needed to build batteries in high volumes for their semi trucks. In addition, Tesla has retained the inventor of the NMC Li-battery chemistry, Dr. Jeff Dahn, to work to improve the durability of the batteries they build. In the first year of his five-year contract, he DOUBLED the life of their batteries.
lorenfb said:
Again, the same problems today that exist with BEVs and limit their adoption, i.e. charging times & infrastructure, also are major obstacles for a battery powered semi.
Oh, look! More barriers to entry. In fact, charging infrastructure was the EXACT subject of a post I made just a couple posts above the one to which you are responding. Again, Tesla has a history of identifying barriers to entry and knocking them down. They are already focused on both of the ones you just mentioned and are discussing what they are doing in public. Frankly, their approach of using the same modular charging building block in both their cars and their SuperCharger infrastructure is a stroke of genius.
lorenfb said:
Really? Tesla is not even profitable now producing a relatively low volume high-end luxury vehicles where the annual volume is even greater than for a semi.
No they are not profitable. And Elon Musk ALWAYS operates on the ragged edge. Tesla may go bankrupt before this truck can get manufactured. I don't know.

What I do know is that Elon Musk is working to disrupt an industry which has not changed in many decades. He has just shown the world the way forward in heavy trucking. His proposal threatens the livelihoods of the members of the biggest labor union in the country. They WILL fight back against any attempt to automate the trucking industry. So there are political as well as technological barriers to entry of automated trucks.

Since you brought up the issue of addressable market for semi trucks, lets have a look. There are approximately two million tractor-trailers operating in the U.S. today. Nearly 10% of these trucks are replaced each year. The global market is likely 10X the size of the U.S. market, if not more. So the addressable market is perhaps 2 million semi trucks each year. I'm sure Tesla would be happy to claim less than 5% of this market.

And my numbers are only for semi trucks. There are many more commercial trucks which can be electrified and the driver eliminated. Who will do it? Tesla? I don't know, but it will happen.
 
RegGuheert said:
Of course, but this application provides significant margin to allow for profitable entry into the space.

Not really or it would be viable now when considering all factors.

RegGuheert said:
Considered? And dismissed because they are making too much money selling diesel trucks?

You can do better than that as reason for not utilizing an EV semi now.

RegGuheert said:
..i.e. the technology is widely known and available to all,... [

Yes, the technology to design & built a semi EV is available, e.g. motors, controllers etc. It’s just not practical now when
considering the same issues that confront the adoption of BEVs, i.e. range, infrastructure & overall cost effectiveness.

RegGuheert said:
Tell me, if "the technology is widely known and available to all" and "there's no key barrier to entry", then why aren't these things everywhere? The answer is simple: This is new technology AND there are massive barriers to entry.

The logic of this statement refutes your initial statement. The discussion is becoming circular.
 
We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.
 
NeilBlanchard said:
We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.
Yes, although at least in Tesla cars the battery is not part of the drive-train warranty.
 
NeilBlanchard said:
We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.
No, we know what Tesla is claiming will be the cost of operation given certain conditions, and with absolutely no operational experience to back it up.
 
NeilBlanchard said:
We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.

So, the market for an EV semi is a "natural" today for Tesla, why even consider production of the M3? There's no potential
competition, i.e. no potential competitor is aware of the cost savings yet, right? Tesla needs to just educate the trucking industry now,
and the profits will start "rolling-in" for Tesla. Tesla is so technically astute that no other truck manufacturer even thought to do a
comparative economic analysis of an EV semi vs a diesel semi. The issues of a charging infrastructure, range, charging times, etc.,
are all incidental to the cost saving per 100K miles, and really of secondary importance, right? If only the diesel truck manufacturers
had done a Google search and found this thread, they would not be under a threat of extinction now from the Tesla semi.
 
Not really.
It is more a case of diesel truck manufacturers being intellectually incapable of thinking the way Tesla does. I'm not saying they are stupid, but they are handicapped by their own spheres of expertise.
 
NeilBlanchard said:
We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel...
Two comically implausible assertions.

Does anyone actually believe that TSLA Class 8 BEV trucks requiring ~1 MWh battery packs, will be profitable when sold for only ~twice the price of the ~100 kWh (already money-losing) TSLA passenger vehicles?

Operating cost claims are even sillier, based as they are on TSLA delivering a charging network and electricity for ~seven-cents-per kWh, that will likely cost it close to $1 a kWh to deliver.

Is Tesla's Mega Charging Network Economically Viable?

...Construction of a network of mega-chargers will require a huge outlay of capital, and at 7 cents per kWh there is no chance of any return on that capital, except by inflating the initial cost of the trucks. Allowing for the time value of money, and for the fact that charging stations cannot be precisely located to serve the optimum number of trucks, it is likely that Tesla would have to include at least $100,000 in the cost of a truck just to cover the capital cost of the mega-chargers...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129286-teslas-mega-charging-network-economically-viable
 
Via GCR:
Tesla Semi, Roadster battery claims prove puzzling: beyond current knowledge?
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...laims-prove-puzzling-beyond-current-knowledge

Since Tesla’s reveal of its new Semi and Roadster models, many technical analysts have been left scratching their collective heads. How can Tesla promise performance metrics far exceeding what’s currently physically and economically possible? According to one analyst, it may not be a matter of what batteries can do now, but what they can do tomorrow.

Bloomberg compiled a list of four seemingly impossible claims made by Musk during the reveal of the Semi and Roadster. Those claims include the Semi’s 500-mile range when hauling 80,000 pounds, the Semi’s purported 30-minute charge time for 400 miles of range, Tesla’s guaranteed charging rate of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for Semi customers, and the Roadster’s 620-mile range. Bloomberg then attempted to reconcile each claim with reality.

For the Semi’s claimed 500-mile range, Bloomberg estimates the necessary 800 kilowatt-hour battery pack would weigh over 10,000 pounds and cost more than $100,000. That last figure is important as Tesla has priced the truck at $180,000. The cost of the battery leaves Tesla with $80,000 for building the rest of the truck. To put that in perspective, a typical Class 8 truck costs between $100,000 and $125,000.

However, Bloomberg believes Musk is banking on a significant reduction in the price of batteries before the Semi begins duty for customers in early 2020. “By the time Tesla gets large orders, batteries should cost considerably less,” says the Bloomberg article. . . .
Via IEVS:
Tesla Semi To Deliver Budweiser As Anheuser-Busch Places 40-Unit Order
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-budweiser-anheuser-busch-places-40-unit-order/
 
GRA said:
Via GCR:
Tesla Semi, Roadster battery claims prove puzzling: beyond current knowledge?
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...laims-prove-puzzling-beyond-current-knowledge

Since Tesla’s reveal of its new Semi and Roadster models, many technical analysts have been left scratching their collective heads. How can Tesla promise performance metrics far exceeding what’s currently physically and economically possible? According to one analyst, it may not be a matter of what batteries can do now, but what they can do tomorrow.

Bloomberg compiled a list of four seemingly impossible claims made by Musk during the reveal of the Semi and Roadster. Those claims include the Semi’s 500-mile range when hauling 80,000 pounds, the Semi’s purported 30-minute charge time for 400 miles of range, Tesla’s guaranteed charging rate of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for Semi customers, and the Roadster’s 620-mile range. Bloomberg then attempted to reconcile each claim with reality.

For the Semi’s claimed 500-mile range, Bloomberg estimates the necessary 800 kilowatt-hour battery pack would weigh over 10,000 pounds and cost more than $100,000. That last figure is important as Tesla has priced the truck at $180,000. The cost of the battery leaves Tesla with $80,000 for building the rest of the truck. To put that in perspective, a typical Class 8 truck costs between $100,000 and $125,000.

However, Bloomberg believes Musk is banking on a significant reduction in the price of batteries before the Semi begins duty for customers in early 2020. “By the time Tesla gets large orders, batteries should cost considerably less,” says the Bloomberg article. . . .
Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.

But there are two big differences with the Tesla Semi:
1) The rate at which the technology is improving is much more rapid with the Tesla Semi,
and 2) Telsa is NOT a huge multi-national company sitting on lots of cash to spend on huge development projects.

Boeing and Airbus were badly hurt with their 787 and A380 products, respectively. It seems extremely unlikely that Boeing can every recover the $32B development cost of the 787 no matter how many they build and Airbus will, at best, achieve break-even on the Airbus A380 program. (To Airbus' credit, they seem to have greatly improved their results on the A350. The jury is still out with Boeing on the 779 development program.) But these companies appear to be capable to weather such costly overruns.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla manages to fund such a massive project. No doubt they will experience significant technical and manufacturing challenges in the Tesla Semi development, just like Boeing and Airbus did.
GRA said:
Via IEVS:
Tesla Semi To Deliver Budweiser As Anheuser-Busch Places 40-Unit Order
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-budweiser-anheuser-busch-places-40-unit-order/
And Sysco ordered another 50 the same day. That brings the number of trucks ordered so far to around 300.
 
RegGuheert said:
Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.
The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?
 
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.
The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?

Since Tesla is guaranteeing 7 cents per kWh, and a million miles against breakdown, some of those performance guarantees are already there.

Engery consumption under load might be another key metric.
 
TonyWilliams said:
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.
The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?

Since Tesla is guaranteeing 7 cents per kWh, and a million miles against breakdown, some of those performance guarantees are already there.

Engery consumption under load might be another key metric.
Has there been any evidence that Tesla is in fact guaranteeing (legally enforceable) anything at this point, as opposed to just making claims? None of the reservations are hard at this time, so it would seem unlikely that they would (or would need to) provide guarantees now, especially when AFAWK they haven't actually built any trucks. Once it's time for companies to put real money down it will be a different matter.
 
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