Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

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SageBrush said:
OrientExpress said:
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year.
Set the 2018 LEAF to 100 miles range to account for expected battery degradation.

Eh? Where? Not for me. I'm probably down 10% at almost 4 years and almost 40,000 miles.
 
I plan to keep my 2015 for a long time just as I intended to keep my 2011. If something happens to force a change, I will purchase the best EV for my needs that is realistically available in AZ. I am not keen on the new dashboard and body style, but I suspect the new LEAF will still be the best available EV for my unique driving needs when it arrives at dealers in 2018. Therefore, I hope nothing bad happens to my 2015 SL.

I recently looked at Teslas at their local store and was told they do not recommend parking for extended time in hot weather without being plugged in. I suspect that is typical for any of the cars with active battery thermal management, but have not talked to anyone knowledgeable about the Bolt or the BMW (only other choices realistically available here). I wil be averaging between 17K and 18K miles per year on the 2015 by the time it is 3 years old and frequently park for 2 to 3 weeks at a time with no way to plug in while traveling so my needs are somewhat unique.
 
OrientExpress said:
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year. It's all about the best car for the price.

18leafpricingpositioning.png
I'm confused by that chart in respect to the BMW i3. 60kwh battery giving less than a 100 mile range :?
 
OrientExpress said:
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year. It's all about the best car for the price.

Obviously what Nissan is hoping for - but who knows what happens. My expectation is - it will sell as well as Bolt is doing now (3k per month).

We'll still have to wait for that 10k a month EV.
 
This entire argument of @orientExpress is a straw man
So what? It could have a jillion kWh battery, but if you can't sell it at a price that makes you a profit, then you have to sell it at a loss. That is the crux of GM's dilemma, they thought that the market for entry level EVs was range sensitive ("give them 200+ range and they will be standing in line for you to take their money"), when it is not, it is price sensitive, always has been.

But nevertheless, GM flooded the market with $42K+ 200+ mile cars that were simply too expensive for their target market. At one point this summer, GM had over 200 days worth of Bolt inventory gathering dust on dealers lots. So they were forced to do what any good marketeer does with distressed merchandise, you fire sale the hell out of it to move it off the lot and take the loss. Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

He defines the target market as price sensitive, then rhapsodizes how GM ignored price sensitivity.
As if that same market was not value sensitive, or range sensitive, or sensitive to practicality.

As if $30k is a wonderful price for this imagined price sensitive market slice. The Bolt died the day the Model 3 was announced. The LEAF is irrelevant to the Bolt story, just as is the Bolt price. This forum is an echo chamber that misses the rest of the world. For every person committed to buying a Bolt or a LEAF, there are 50 committed to buying a Model 3.

Nissan was able to sell damaged goods as an early mover and before the extent of their poor engineering became widely known. That situation does not exist today. It is not by chance that this forum mostly dwells on super cheap, used LEAFs for sale. If you want to identify the price sensitive EV market, it is nicely under $10k.
 
SageBrush said:
Nissan was able to sell damaged goods as an early mover and before the extent of their poor engineering became widely known. That situation does not exist today. It is not by chance that this forum mostly dwells on super cheap, used LEAFs for sale. If you want to identify the price sensitive EV market, it is nicely under $10k.
What a great summary! Been there, done that. I now wish that I waited back in 2011 and let others take the brunt of the bleeding edge. I paid full MSRP. In hindsight, I could have let someone do the heavy lifting, waited 3 years, and picked up a 3-bar loser for less than $10k. What I know now could get me a new battery at less than 1/2 the cost. Well, at least we are here and EVs are unstoppable. Still, not another Nissan for me unless they replace my defective 9-bar battery. I'm pretty sure that won't happen, so a Tesla M3 for me, probably in 2020 or so.
 
Reddy said:
Well, at least we are here and EVs are unstoppable..
And we have people like you to thank. THANK YOU

My Tesla Model 3 reservation is presently estimated for Q1 2018. We'll see, but I can wait for whenever it is ready. @OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

What Model 3 are you thinking of buying ? I keep vacillating between the $36k base and a $10k more expensive, optioned up version. I'll probably have to visit a show room to decide.
 
jjeff said:
OrientExpress said:
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year. It's all about the best car for the price.

18leafpricingpositioning.png
I'm confused by that chart in respect to the BMW i3. 60kwh battery giving less than a 100 mile range :?

It's 60Ah, not 60kWh. Huge difference. The battery is nominally 360V. 360V * 60Ah = 21.6kWh.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
It's 60Ah, not 60kWh. Huge difference. The battery is nominally 360V. 360V * 60Ah = 21.6kWh.
Ahhh yes, that makes sense :idea: Strange they should list it in Ah...really a worthless value without also knowing the voltage of the pack. None the less around 20kWh makes sense.
 
SageBrush said:
@OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

Nissan has a history of large discounts from MSRP. $30k MSRP means well under $30k actual selling price.

Nissan Leaf is a very reliable car, and I'm on track for over 100k miles on my battery.
 
SageBrush said:
@OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

Sagebrush does not seem to understand market dynamics, and that Nissan couldn't care less abut those that have churned out for a more expensive EV (and the magic differentiator number is actually $40K). They are just happy that they were able to give those aspirational EV'ers an entry point into the EV game.

It is best that these early LEAF adopters move on to another marque and become that marques problem.

But for the second wave of new EV intenders, especially the younger ones that may aspire to a trendy EV, the reality is that their options are limited to a used EV, a limited range compliance EV, or a new entry level LEAF, especially if they have the foresight to understand the total cost of ownership of a trendy EV. These intenders are the ones that Nissan is targeting, and there are more than enough of them to make those "abandoning" Nissan irrelevant.

I think it will be very interesting to actually see how many of the Model 3 intenders actually consummate that acquisition. If this board is any indication, the average Model 3 intender talks a big game, but does not have to wallet to back it up.
 
Actually, I got my email to configure this week so it is closer than I anticipated... I plan to pick it up at the factory and drive it back...

powersurge said:
It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...
 
OrientExpress said:
Sagebrush does not seem to understand market dynamics, and that Nissan couldn't care less abut those that have churned out for a more expensive EV (and the magic differentiator number is actually $40K). They are just happy that they were able to give those aspirational EV'ers an entry point into the EV game.

It is best that these early LEAF adopters move on to another marque and become that marques problem.
I hope that these statements are not reflective of Nissan's attitude toward their early LEAF adopters.

Many of us own multiple cars. Not every car in our "stable" has to be a Tesla! Our 2011 LEAF, though crippled by excessive battery capacity loss and overly limited regen, continues to be useful as a local runabout. One day, we may choose to replace it with a budget-priced EV, ideally with 150+ miles of EPA range, better battery longevity, and AWD.

Further, many of us influence others who buy cars, including our own children as they become young adults.
 
Realize if not for us, there would be no bargain used EV market and we would still have that many more gassers on the road.

We can talk all we want about how Tesla this and Chevy that but the reality is Nissan is not in either market space.
 
SageBrush said:
Reddy said:
Well, at least we are here and EVs are unstoppable..
And we have people like you to thank. THANK YOU

My Tesla Model 3 reservation is presently estimated for Q1 2018. We'll see, but I can wait for whenever it is ready. @OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

What Model 3 are you thinking of buying ? I keep vacillating between the $36k base and a $10k more expensive, optioned up version. I'll probably have to visit a show room to decide.
You're welcome. I was certainly able to afford it, having started saving for an EV in 1992 when I purchased my last and only ICE vehicle.

I've said before that I think a 200 mi EV is just about right in terms of battery size (1000-2000 cycles at 200 mi/cycle is about right for the current LiON battery technology). Since I have time, I'll probably go with the smaller battery Tesla, but with dual wheel drive. I like the concept of improved mileage with the two motors and the more even tire wear. Since Tesla has an extensive supercharger network with less than 150 mi spacing, the longer range battery isn't really needed for my driving pattern. All out-of-town trips are supported by stations at 90-120 mi. In-town, I haven't been able to exhaust the 2011 Leaf battery, so a new Tesla M3 would be like a rocket ship.

I'm not sure about the high end options. I currently like driving but age and health may force the need for autopilot or self-driving (if they ever perfect it and get approvals). If a "deal" comes up on a used M3, I might go with all options, but probably I'll get the stripper version. The one thing I absolutely like about the 2011 Leaf is the non-leather, tan interior. I greatly dislike black or leather, which is definitely problematic with the current M3. I, too, will wait until I can actually drive the vehicle and have a number of choices for options. In the end, I may cancel the reservation and get something else, but I doubt it. No other EV can match Tesla's charging network, and I expect it will be similar in the future.

OrientExpress is correct about price being a significant driver for many people. I think the 150 mi Leaf2 does fill a niche but they need to price it under $25K when all the tax credits are gone. Even so, most people cannot even afford a used $10K vehicle, which is why most keep their existing ICE, worth maybe $500, and continue paying the oil piper. I'm seeing a significant number of used Leafs in our area because of the $8K pricing. Once the used 150 mi Leaf2 hits the streets in 2020, then we really will see an impact (providing that Nissan produces more than 3000/mo).
 
powersurge said:
TomT said:
That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 said:
Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.

It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...
I will have mine in July of 2018. Others have already mentioned that they've already received configuration emails. By March 2018, they'll be sending out thousands of copies of the Model 3, despite your wish for them to fail. (And why?)
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
@OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

Nissan has a history of large discounts from MSRP. $30k MSRP means well under $30k actual selling price.

Nissan Leaf is a very reliable car, and I'm on track for over 100k miles on my battery.

Well you wouldn't be saying that if you had the crappy 30kwh battery!

Obviously Nissan took a huge step backwards with 2016 & 2017 Leaf 30kwh batteries. Reminds me of the crappy canary battery they used from 2011- March of 2013.

Nissan just doesn't know what they're doing when it comes to the battery portion of the Leaf.
 
rcm4453 said:
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
@OrientExpress cannot understand (or does not want to understand) that the lion's share of people able and willing to spend $30k+ on an EV have abandoned Nissan.

Nissan has a history of large discounts from MSRP. $30k MSRP means well under $30k actual selling price.

Nissan Leaf is a very reliable car, and I'm on track for over 100k miles on my battery.

Well you wouldn't be saying that if you had the crappy 30kwh battery!

Obviously Nissan took a huge step backwards with 2016 & 2017 Leaf 30kwh batteries. Reminds me of the crappy canary battery they used from 2011- March of 2013.

Nissan just doesn't know what they're doing when it comes to the battery portion of the Leaf.
He also lives in Seattle, WA.

It's the other 98% of the country that agrees that the Nissan battery is poor.
 
rcm4453 said:
Nissan just doesn't know what they're doing when it comes to the battery portion of the Leaf.

The battery in the 2014 is pretty good. Nissan doesn't have everything worked out, is true. Still, is one of the more reliable cars on the road.

Look at my electric alternatives when I bought my first Leaf, in 2012:

1) Ford Focus Electric. Yes, in some ways a cooler car than the Leaf. Better looking. But... Stop Safely Now bug, and worse battery life than the Leaf.
2) Tesla Roadster. I can't fit in one.
3) iMiev.
4) Conversion car. Lots of work, more money, and so on.


Nissan has done good. Not perfect, but good.
 
SageBrush said:
He also lives in Seattle, WA.

It's the other 98% of the country that agrees that the Nissan battery is poor.

Near Seattle, not in.

Nissan has made several different batteries. Some have been better, some have been worse.

I might buy a 2018 near the end of the year if a list of factors is true.

It is clear you are not interested in the slightest, so why clog up this topic with saying so?
 
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