Recent Rise in Prices

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eyemgh

Active member
Joined
Oct 26, 2017
Messages
33
Location
Ashland, OR
I read several articles about how cheap EVs were. Jalopnik was saying the Fiat 500e was going for low $4k at auction. It got me thinking now is the time to return to the EV market (embarrassingly, I owned a Zap!...less so, I also owned a Brammo MC). Well those days are gone! Auction prices on the 2014 500e are now averaging over $8k! The same holds true for price rebounds in all other EVs. It got me wondering why. I think I have the answer.

Every year, when the CAFE sales metrics reset, manufactures have to pump EVs into the market to meet fleet standards. When attractive lease options are available, that places downward pressure on the used market. Why buy and own the risk when you can lease and simply give it back. Once they've placed enough to meet the yearly goal, through lease or sales, the screamin' deal leases evaporate and used prices climb.

To add insult to injury, fuel prices typically rise in the winter. EV prices follow gas prices in lockstep.

That all leads me to conclude that right now is actually a terrible time to buy a used EV unless you fall into an extraordinary deal and that better deals should come back in late winter/spring when leases return and fuel prices begin to drop back down.

Thoughts?
 
Nissan went to some lengths (2 free months for a 6-month extension, AIUI) to encourage lessees whose leases would have expired in late 2017 to extend their leases into 2018, undoubtedly to ensure that the 2018 Leaf would be available to those lessees. This has made the number of off-lease Leafs available in late 2017 unusually low, and should make the number of off-lease Leafs available in early 2018 usually high.

I don't know what caused the dip in used Leaf prices in January-February 2017. If the dip reoccurs this year, I'm going to take advantage of it. However, crude oil prices are trending up, which may, as you point out, raise used Leaf prices.
 
The sales guy (knows his EVs and is the best shifter of new EV in the west outside of CA, WA and OR) in our nearest dealership tells me that lots of Nissan leafs are being exported to Norway. They are taking advantage of our used low prices and draining the supplies.
 
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