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lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
So now you need to pick other variables to find some correlation, right?

No, I think I've been fairly consistent in pointing out that even though the assignment of VINs does not appear to be sequential (some would say random, I suspect there is at least some method to the assignment order), that at least the number of sightings does tell us something. That's exactly what this is saying without changing variables at all.

So what, who cares! The bottom line is that all M3 deliveries (<< 2K) to date have been for vehicles with options that result
in a sale which yields $50K+. Thus, as yet and most likely for all of 2018, no M3 delivery will be considered as the arrival of
a "mass market BEV", i.e. just a basically lower cost MS with about the same gross profit percentage which yields an increase
in non-GAAP loss per vehicle (Tesla continues to lose money thru 2018). Subsequently, when Tesla no longer receives
significant M3 orders which yield a $50K+ sale or MS sales decline (switch to M3 - Osborne Effect), the net effect is that Tesla
will lose even more money. It's highly questionable whether Tesla can achieve the necessary gross profit per vehicle times
the number of M3's sold before 2020 at $35K to be a viable entity, i.e. given the near term production cost reduction of EV batteries.
 
lorenfb said:
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
So now you need to pick other variables to find some correlation, right?

No, I think I've been fairly consistent in pointing out that even though the assignment of VINs does not appear to be sequential (some would say random, I suspect there is at least some method to the assignment order), that at least the number of sightings does tell us something. That's exactly what this is saying without changing variables at all.

So what, who cares! The bottom line is that all M3 deliveries (<< 2K) to date have been for vehicles with options that result
in a sale which yields $50K+. ...

Ladies & gentlemen, THIS is the very definition of picking some other variables to support your case. :lol:
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
lpickup said:
No, I think I've been fairly consistent in pointing out that even though the assignment of VINs does not appear to be sequential (some would say random, I suspect there is at least some method to the assignment order), that at least the number of sightings does tell us something. That's exactly what this is saying without changing variables at all.

So what, who cares! The bottom line is that all M3 deliveries (<< 2K) to date have been for vehicles with options that result
in a sale which yields $50K+. ...

Ladies & gentlemen, THIS is the very definition of picking some other variables to support your case. :lol:

+1
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
So based on that VIN and your actual receipt of a M3 before year-end, Tesla will
have delivered in excess of 2292 M3s for 2017, right? Then this should be reported
by Tesla in a few weeks during their year-end report.
I would not necessarily assume that. They don't appear to be delivering them in sequential order (for reasons only known to Tesla, but I suspect it's as simple as a customer specialist scanning down a spreadsheet looking for a vehicle that matches the color/wheels of the one they are looking for and arbitrarily picking one), but I am expecting something in the neighborhood of 2000 anyway.

Again, your guessing wasn't very accurate.

lpickup said:
Ladies & gentlemen, THIS is the very definition of picking some other variables to support your case.

Yes, your scientific methodology; If one theory of an outcome fails, define a new outcome to fit your new data.
 
Anyone have an order ready for delivery holding out for AWD? I expect the AWD version to be less efficient with about 5 fewer miles in range and the same rear motor but an induction motor up front. The net difference should be slightly more total power (10-15kw) and the inverter power level on the rear used to segment a P version. The AWD will have a lower inverter power to the rear than the RWD and the P version likely having the same rear power as the RWD and the induction up front with the same or slightly more power as the standard AWD version front motor. Stated 0-60 maybe the same or slightly higher on the AWD version but the real world number to be better.

Since the PM gives the added efficiency the induction motor up front is for the traction/performance spec and results in close or reduced range. This may change a bit but I think the induction front motor is the path.
 
lorenfb said:
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
So based on that VIN and your actual receipt of a M3 before year-end, Tesla will
have delivered in excess of 2292 M3s for 2017, right? Then this should be reported
by Tesla in a few weeks during their year-end report.
I would not necessarily assume that. They don't appear to be delivering them in sequential order (for reasons only known to Tesla, but I suspect it's as simple as a customer specialist scanning down a spreadsheet looking for a vehicle that matches the color/wheels of the one they are looking for and arbitrarily picking one), but I am expecting something in the neighborhood of 2000 anyway.

Again, your guessing wasn't very accurate.

Yeah, I was WAY off. I said around 2000 when in actuality it was 1772.
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
lpickup said:
I would not necessarily assume that. They don't appear to be delivering them in sequential order (for reasons only known to Tesla, but I suspect it's as simple as a customer specialist scanning down a spreadsheet looking for a vehicle that matches the color/wheels of the one they are looking for and arbitrarily picking one), but I am expecting something in the neighborhood of 2000 anyway.

Again, your guessing wasn't very accurate.

Yeah, I was WAY off. I said around 2000 when in actuality it was 1772.

Epic discrepancy.
 
This is the same guy who spent all of 2017 picking and choosing numbers to support why Tesla couldn’t possibly sell 100,000 cars in the calendar year as they forecasted.

Spoiler alert, they sold like 103,000.

He’s best ignored in my opinion. Model 3s are all over LA at this point and I’m looking forward to receiving mine, even if it’s a little late.

Now for the real question: The Model 3 already outsold the Leaf in the US in November and December of 2017, so will the Leaf ever outsell the Model 3 in a given month from this point forward? Bolt?
 
mtndrew1 said:
This is the same guy who spent all of 2017 picking and choosing numbers to support why Tesla couldn’t possibly sell 100,000 cars in the calendar year as they forecasted.

Spoiler alert, they sold like 103,000.

He’s best ignored in my opinion. Model 3s are all over LA at this point and I’m looking forward to receiving mine, even if it’s a little late.

Now for the real question: The Model 3 already outsold the Leaf in the US in November and December of 2017, so will the Leaf ever outsell the Model 3 in a given month from this point forward? Bolt?


Yes, as soon as Nissan sells them off at huge discounts as they have in the past. Of course we know Nissan has such HUGE margins that they can do that and make a healthy profit unlike Tesla ever will even though they are selling holograms at a low production cost :roll:
 
Oh crap those were holograms on the freeway this morning?! It looked like real people driving real cars they paid real money for!
 
Maybe it is just me but if I were in the marked for a $60k car I'd rather get a relatively low-miles CPO MS for about the same price than a loaded M3.
 
Based on the stout resale value of the Model S it seems you’re not the only one with that opinion.

If I remember reading an investor conference call transcript correctly (I am not an investor) the company anticipates the average model 3 transaction price to be about $43,000 once all options are available.
 
mtndrew1 said:
Oh crap those were holograms on the freeway this morning?! It looked like real people driving real cars they paid real money for!

Yes, don't drink the Kool aid.
 
mtndrew1 said:
...The Model 3 already outsold the Leaf in the US in November and December of 2017, so will the Leaf ever outsell the Model 3 in a given month...
You do realize that the gen 2 LEAF in each of its first two months of production sold in higher numbers than the model 3 did in all of its first six months of "production" combined, don't you?

mtndrew1 said:
Based on the stout resale value of the Model S...
You haven't looked at plummeting used Tesla model S prices lately, have you?
 
edatoakrun said:
mtndrew1 said:
...The Model 3 already outsold the Leaf in the US in November and December of 2017, so will the Leaf ever outsell the Model 3 in a given month...
You do realize that the gen 2 LEAF in each of its first two months of production sold in higher numbers than the model 3 did in all of its first six months of "production" combined, don't you?

mtndrew1 said:
Based on the stout resale value of the Model S...
You haven't looked at plummeting used Tesla model S prices lately, have you?


That’s weird. My Nissan dealer tells me that none have been delivered to customers in the US up to this point and Nissan U.S.A. is bringing me a preproduction prototype to drive for an hour this coming Monday because no cars are on dealer lots.

Odd that Nissan showed a new car, ran out of the old ones, and has effectively had none to choose from for over four months! ZOMG! Ghosn hype machine! The new Leaf must be crap and full of production problems if the largest car factory in the whole country can’t pump out a refresh of an old car as fast as it can spit out a refreshed Rogue!!! WHAT IS GHOSN HIDING FROM US!!?!?!?

Edit: As for resale, the cheapest S I’m seeing on autotrader is damn near $40k with almost 100,000 miles on it and it’s five years old. Prices pop up quickly as mileage and age drop. Seems pretty dang stout to me.
 
mtndrew1 said:
Odd that Nissan showed a new car, ran out of the old ones, and has effectively had none to choose from for over four months! ZOMG! Ghosn hype machine! The new Leaf must be crap and full of production problems if the largest car factory in the whole country can’t pump out a refresh of an old car as fast as it can spit out a refreshed Rogue!!! WHAT IS GHOSN HIDING FROM US!!?!?!?
:?: :?: :?:

Sorry for the OT, but one thing I learned about Nissan is that they do not ramp up manufacturing of a new (or redesigned) product in all their factories simultaneously. The prudent reason for this is that they do not want to duplicate mistakes in multiple locations. Even though there will be unique challenges at each factory due to the differences in the supply chains, there are many areas where the manufacturing lines are the same, and it makes sense to iron those out in Japan first before copying the lines elsewhere.
 
RegGuheert said:
mtndrew1 said:
Odd that Nissan showed a new car, ran out of the old ones, and has effectively had none to choose from for over four months! ZOMG! Ghosn hype machine! The new Leaf must be crap and full of production problems if the largest car factory in the whole country can’t pump out a refresh of an old car as fast as it can spit out a refreshed Rogue!!! WHAT IS GHOSN HIDING FROM US!!?!?!?
:?: :?: :?:

Sorry for the OT, but one thing I learned about Nissan is that they do not ramp up manufacturing of a new (or redesigned) product in all their factories simultaneously. The prudent reason for this is that they do not want to duplicate mistakes in multiple locations. Even though there will be unique challenges at each factory due to the differences in the supply chains, there are many areas where the manufacturing lines are the same, and it makes sense to iron those out in Japan first before copying the lines elsewhere.

I was being facetious. You’re right and Nissan is of course taking a measured approach to build a quality product as they’re known for.

Put a Tesla badge on it though and you’d see the hysteria I sarcastically wrote above.
 
mtndrew1 said:
RegGuheert said:
mtndrew1 said:
Odd that Nissan showed a new car, ran out of the old ones, and has effectively had none to choose from for over four months! ZOMG! Ghosn hype machine! The new Leaf must be crap and full of production problems if the largest car factory in the whole country can’t pump out a refresh of an old car as fast as it can spit out a refreshed Rogue!!! WHAT IS GHOSN HIDING FROM US!!?!?!?
:?: :?: :?:

Sorry for the OT, but one thing I learned about Nissan is that they do not ramp up manufacturing of a new (or redesigned) product in all their factories simultaneously. The prudent reason for this is that they do not want to duplicate mistakes in multiple locations. Even though there will be unique challenges at each factory due to the differences in the supply chains, there are many areas where the manufacturing lines are the same, and it makes sense to iron those out in Japan first before copying the lines elsewhere.

I was being facetious. You’re right and Nissan is of course taking a measured approach to build a quality product as they’re known for.

Put a Tesla badge on it though and you’d see the hysteria I sarcastically wrote above.

I would not say Nissan is know for quality. LEAF- paint that almost blows off, spray on carpet, lots of parts not properly attached and thats on Japanese made cars...
 
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