Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

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I think we will see a new bump in adoption in the next 1-3 years. Soon the range increases will stop in favor of lower pricing combined with several package upgrades.

What I see is the upcoming LEAF becoming the base standard for range with models offering extended range packages. Expect entry level pricing to drop to the mid 20's before incentives topping to the upper 30's fully loaded.

An example; 40 kwh LEAF S comes standard with QC on the low end verses a 75+ kwh LEAF with Pro Pilot, etc. coming in just under $40,000.

What I expect is Chevy either bring the Sonic back with double its original range to compete or simply developing a whole new platform.


The reality is MOST OF US don't need or want to pay for 300 miles of range.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
What I expect is Chevy either bring the Sonic back with double its original range to compete or simply developing a whole new platform.

I assume you mean the Spark EV.

On what do you base this expectation? The fact that you don't want to pay for more range, or do you see a legitimate business case for Chevy to offer a lower range EV than the Bolt?

What I expect is the Chevy puts the Bolt powertrain into a larger car, and that 238-mile range becomes much closer to a 200-mile range. I don't see Chevy ever offering a battery smaller than the Bolt's again. FWIW, I base my expectation on what I know about Chevy's study groups' findings. People care about range. A lot. Below 200 miles, anyway. Above 200 miles, infrastructure becomes far more important.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
I think we will see a new bump in adoption in the next 1-3 years.
That's exactly my view, as well. I expect the "bump" to last at least three years, perhaps as long as five. During that time I expect sales growth to greatly exceed the 20%/year exponential growth that has been achieved over the past seven years. That growth will be driven by the Tesla Model 3, the Chevy Bolt and the Nissan LEAF. An updated Kia Soul might also participate. Manufacturers will have difficulty selling lower-range BEVs.

Interestingly. it appears that Toyota and Honda will NOT be participating in this second round of BEV growth. They've been wasting both their own and taxpayers' resources chasing H2 FCVs. Frankly, they deserve to loose market share for their failure to understand the realities behind what is driving the transportation revolution.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Soon the range increases will stop in favor of lower pricing combined with several package upgrades.
Exactly. There likely will be a median range which suits the bulk of users. Then I expect that median range to enjoy very gradual growth over the next several decades, much in the same way the range of gasoline cars has increased as that technology improved. Median range for ICEVs was probably around 250 miles fifty years ago, but now is likely around 400 miles or so.

One interesting difference is that typically the ICEVs with the lowest range were the vehicles with the highest performance whereas BEVs with the highest range are the same ones that have the highest performance. I suppose that might eventually change, but it is certainly true today.
GetOffYourGas said:
<span>What I expect is the Chevy puts the<a href="http://www.mychevybolt.com/forum" class="interlinkr" target="_blank"> Bolt <span class="tip">Visit the Chevy Bolt EV</span></a>powertrain into a larger car, and that 238-mile range becomes much closer to a 200-mile range. I don't see Chevy ever offering a battery smaller than the Bolt's again. FWIW, I base my expectation on what I know about Chevy's study groups' findings. People care about range. A lot. Below 200 miles, anyway. Above 200 miles, infrastructure becomes far more important.</span>
Agreed. Future base models will probably have 200 miles of EPA range, 150 miles at the lowest. Options will take range up from there. Since we're already over 600 miles in the 200-kWh Tesla Roadster 2.0, I expect top-end BEVs to eventually offer range options above 1000 miles. In fact, we might even see that in some large autonomous trucks.
 
My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)

Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)
O.K. Then we are in total agreement here! There is no "putting the genie back in the bottle" when it comes to restraining the growth of BEVs. It will be interesting to watch the sustained growth during this transition.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
I agree with this assessment. I have a mixed bag with my children. The oldest three are all "reluctant" drivers with the third oldest refusing to learn how to drive (he turns 20 this month), instead wanting to simply depend on autonomous cars. So far that autonomy comes from Mom & Dad and his friends.

The next three all are eager drivers. Perhaps not as eager as our generation, but they all want to drive.

I do think that autonomous BEVs are going to enable a transition by making vehicle ownership much less of a necessity than it has been in the past. Even if the vehicles are more expensive, they will offer additional value which will more than compensate for the added cost. Except I don't really see the added value being realized for individual owners (unless they cannot drive)--it is realized more fully when the vehicles are shared.
 
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)
O.K. Then we are in total agreement here! There is no "putting the genie back in the bottle" when it comes to restraining the growth of BEVs. It will be interesting to watch the sustained growth during this transition.
DaveinOlyWA said:
Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
I agree with this assessment. I have a mixed bag with my children. The oldest three are all "reluctant" drivers with the third oldest refusing to learn how to drive (he turns 20 this month), instead wanting to simply depend on autonomous cars. So far that autonomy comes from Mom & Dad and his friends.

The next three all are eager drivers. Perhaps not as eager as our generation, but they all want to drive.

I do think that autonomous BEVs are going to enable a transition by making vehicle ownership much less of a necessity than it has been in the past. Even if the vehicles are more expensive, they will offer additional value which will more than compensate for the added cost. Except I don't really see the added value being realized for individual owners (unless they cannot drive)--it is realized more fully when the vehicles are shared.

Same here, my oldest didn't get a drivers license until he turned 19 and only because he is sure he lost a promotion because he said his primary transportation was his feet and the bus. When I asked him why he didn't want to get a car; He felt that paying insurance was a waste of money since he wasn't planning on getting into an accident... :)
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
paying insurance was a waste of money since he wasn't planning on getting into an accident... :)

So much wrong with this mentality. And it's part of the reason that our healthcare system is so horribly broken. But I digress.

Interesting anecdotes. Yet anecdotally, everyone I know above the age to 18 or 19 has a driver's license and a car. Maybe upstate NY (certainly not NYC) has more of a car culture than VA or WA.
 
During that time I expect sales growth to greatly exceed the 20%/year exponential growth that has been achieved over the past seven years.

20% a year is "steady" or "healthy" growth. (Unless it's an average of years including negative growth, in which case it's "uneven" or "irregular" growth.) Until it starts to grow at a higher rate every year I suggest you give the misnomer "exponential" a rest. It's not just unnecessary hyperbole, it's silly hyperbole given the uneven history of EV sales.
 
LeftieBiker said:
20% a year is "steady" or "healthy" growth. (Unless it's an average of years including negative growth, in which case it's "uneven" or "irregular" growth.) Until it starts to grow at a higher rate every year I suggest you give the misnomer "exponential" a rest. It's not just unnecessary hyperbole, it's silly hyperbole given the uneven history of EV sales.
It's neither a misnomer or hyperbole. Rather, it is the type of growth that is occurring with BEV sales. The term exponential simply means that the growth compounds on top of previous growth.

FWIW, sustained 20% exponential growth is VERY rapid growth, resulting in a repeated doubling of the market size in less time than every four years.

We'll see how long BEV sales can continue to sustain or exceed this level of exponential growth.
 
What is exponential growth? definition and meaning ...
http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/exponential-growth.html

Definition of exponential growth: Increase in number or size, at a constantly growing rate. It is one possible result of a reinforcing feedback loop that makes a population or system grow (escalate) by increasingly higher amounts. ...
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Exactly. A 20% compounding growth rate is, by definition, exponential

Except that that 20% is an average of years that include both very weak growth and negative "growth." But hey, if you folks want to misuse a term widely understood in economics to mean "accelerating growth" to describe growth that is all over the map (including shrinkage) because mathematical definitions allow it, go ahead. It isn't as if the language isn't already ruined. I suggest that you next eliminate that awful past tense, as the news media have done, giving us gems like "Hawaiian issues a false missile launch alert yesterday!" I give up.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
LeftieBiker said:
Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.

Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).
Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
 
GRA said:
Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
 
GRA said:
GetOffYourGas said:
LeftieBiker said:
Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.

Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).
Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
I am not sure how true this is given how hard it is getting to find used EVs now because people buy them up pretty much as soon as they go on sale.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
How much was the credit for each? I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better. To take one recent non-US example, via GCC:
Beijing to cut annual new car registration quota by one-third to 100,000; 60% for new energy vehicles
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171219-beijing.html
 
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better.
:?: :?: :?: You brought up quotas, not me. I'm not arguing anything. I'm asking YOU to justify YOUR claim about government quotas.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better.
:?: :?: :?: You brought up quotas, not me. I'm not arguing anything. I'm asking YOU to justify YOUR claim about government quotas.
Oh, come on, Reg. You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified? And then there are all the countries (and maybe a few states, like CA) who either have or are considering passing total bans on ICEs at some future date.
 
GRA said:
You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified?
I never denied that. Let's remind everyone of the comment that you made to which I responded:
GRA said:
...I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales.
Frankly, that statement, while *perhaps* true, is incredibly disingenuous. While CA may have only ever had "ZEV" quotas, those quotes were an overreach and they pulled back on them at the end of the 1990s and early 2000s. What that meant is that CA allowed manufacturers to meet their ZEV quotas by delivering HEVs instead. In other words, during that period, CARB's ZEV quotas were not actually ZEV quotas, but rather they were de facto HEV quotas.

So it is a real stretch to try to imply that the Prius and the LEAF somehow grew under a different regulatory environment. In fact it was nearly identical.

But of course you already knew that to be the case. And you've never purchased either an HEV or a BEV. Instead you come here every day to tell us why you have eschewed these technologies and try to tell us how poorly BEV sales are doing.
 
GRA said:
You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified?

Because it is not clear that is the case. Sure, the world would have been different with no CARB ZEV quotas. Battery technology was being driven by laptops and other uses to get cheaper and better, and this would have happened without electric cars. Electric car conversions would get better, cheaper and more available. Eventually, you would have a company like Tesla ramping up from one or two conversions a year, to hundreds of conversions, then thousands, then a production car. Or an automaker deciding they wanted to be first, and probably at the high end. Sure, the breakout would have been later, but how much later? I don't know, and I doubt if you do.

Fiat loses money on a 500 electric, basically a low end car converted to electric power. It is clearly the nicest 500, but a 500 is a low end car. Fiat might be making money with a Spider Electric. Or maybe a Alfa Romeo.
 
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