webb14leafs wrote: lorenfb wrote:
I think I found the first statement of yours I agree with.
The S and X will need a comprehensive refresh soon to bring them up to par with (or exceed) the baked-in newness of the 3. The touchscreen hardware, door cards, navigation software, etc all need to be refreshed sooner than later.
If they do it this quarter then the freshened cars already likely started production and are being loaded for the slow trip overseas like they did when the S got a refresh in ‘16. As Tesla delivers cars in the US at the end of a given quarter it gives them time to unload inventory and finalize transactions for cars built to the previous spec. It’s one of the few logistical things Tesla does well.
The issue then becomes how to effectively differentiate the two, i.e. a facelift of the MS won't do it alone.
Given how well they kept the new roadster under wraps, I wouldn't be surprised if a newly design MS is presented in the next six months.
The more effective overall initial Tesla M3 marketing strategy prior to last year's introduction would not have marketed the present
featured M3 but a stripped-down version where a gross profit of 20-25% could easily be achieved at $35K. This approach would not have
cannibalized MS sales and helped Tesla achieve a breakeven profitability in 2018, assuring a higher probability of long term viability.
Obviously the number of reservations would have been much less than the 400K, but so what even if the final and fairly realistic number
of only 100K resulted. Tesla could easily have delivered this many in 2018 and still sold more than any other U.S. BEV OEM with an entry
level BEV at 200+ miles, and without potentially causing reservation holders and shareholders angst. For later 2018 or early 2019,
Tesla could then have readied a new MS with more up-scaled features and a facelift, and with a new more featured M3 at around
$45-$55K while not impacting the MS product line. As it stands now, Tesla really can't deliver the present featured M3 at a profitable
$35K and risks losing sales of the present MS to the M3, and even more importantly possibly entering into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2019.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 70K miles, 49 Ahrs, 5.1 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs