Tesla Semi Truck
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edatoakrun
Well-known member
Calculator at the link that allows you to input variable to find total cost, pack size and weight for a given range BESemi.
Default values he uses (50 mph, 20 C) are unrealistic in terms of USA temperature and speed, IMO.
Put in the 60 mph speed Musk used at the intro (or realistically higher...) and a low temperature, and the numbers begin to look bleak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ8Cf0vWmxE
https://battery.real.engineering/
Remember that some other energy losses not modeled (headwinds, precipitation, speed variations, etc) will reduce a Semi's range, just as for passenger vehicles.
Default values he uses (50 mph, 20 C) are unrealistic in terms of USA temperature and speed, IMO.
Put in the 60 mph speed Musk used at the intro (or realistically higher...) and a low temperature, and the numbers begin to look bleak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ8Cf0vWmxE
https://battery.real.engineering/
Remember that some other energy losses not modeled (headwinds, precipitation, speed variations, etc) will reduce a Semi's range, just as for passenger vehicles.
RegGuheert
Well-known member
Interesting video and link. Thanks!edatoakrun said:
Remember that when the Boeing 737 was introduced into the market, its range was limited in all the same ways. The 737 offered jet transportation of fewer passengers over a MUCH shorter range than other jet aircraft on the market, meaning it had very limited application at the time. In return, the 737 offered much lower per-trip and per-mile costs. It also offered a lower purchase price.edatoakrun said:
Fifty years later the 737 family and its main competitor, the Airbus A320 family, continue to replace those larger jets which continue to offer longer range and more payload. The useable range of the the latest Boeing 737 is more than 3X that of the original and the payload is also much higher.
The main difference between the Boeing 737 in 1967 and the Tesla Semi Truck in 2019 is that the initial cost of the Tesla vehicle is higher than that of the competition. But Tesla Semi has an ace in the hole which all the trucking companies (except the small independent ones) want: the potential to eliminate the driver. When (not if) that happens, the economics will be so far in Tesla's favor that diesel trucks' days will be numbered by how quickly quality autonomous electric trucks can be produced and how quickly infrastructure can be developed.
As I mentioned in the 737 thread, I see no reason why BEVs will not take a similar path as the Boeing 737. Note that the 737 nearly didn't make it into the market, but Boeing managed to make it happen. Boeing literally bet the farm a couple times back in the 1950s and 60s, most notably with the 707 and the 747 programs. They won big on both of those bets. Can Tesla manage to do the same? Only time will tell.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
If the trucks have issues which you know they will it's no big deal for a Walmart or PepsiCo. Betting big on unproven technology could be death for an independent operator or small firm.
GRA
Well-known member
AndyH
Well-known member
Reality from Seeking Alpha? Not likely.lorenfb said:
Ed - 60 MPH isn't a realistic average speed for this sort of guestimating. Starts/stops etc. do dramatic things to speed averages. Taking 2 hour drive on the interstate at 70 mph becomes a 40 or so MPH average once getting to and from the interstate are taken into account.
AndyH
Well-known member
You know your comment made no sense, right? One doesn't crank up their PC clock speed to mine blocks on any blockchain - it's more about the random number generator. One also doesn't find any useful information about EVs from Seeking Alpha. One doesn't waste time refuting cargo on a garbage truck. Batteries are just fine for long trips as long as one can charge them - that's how my smart can travel beyond it's max range and how Teslas can travel coast to coast. We've had EVs since the 1800s - this isn't new. The article's crap and you're still a troll best left on ignore.lorenfb said:
hyperionmark
Well-known member
I agree. However, he is exercising futility by trying to short the company. Hence the constant disparaging comments and articles about Tesla.GRA
Well-known member
Andy, Edmund's experiences described in the Seeking Alpha article using a Model X for long-distance towing aren't crap, they are a real-world demonstration of the lack of practicality of that (or really any current BEV) and the available infrastructure for towing. The limited range, long charging times, spacing of SCs and especially the lack of pull-through charging spots are all significant handicaps that make the car extremely poorly suited for the job for anyone for whom time and hassle are constraints, and that's most people. Some of these are fixable, but some (currently) aren't.AndyH said:
AndyH
Well-known member
Maybe the info's accurate for a Model X, but when it's misapplied in a thread about the Tesla Semi, which is actually designed to pull a lot of weight, it's little more than FUD.GRA said:
ETA...It seems Tesla knows how to place superchargers for folks towing. Does anyone (at least anyone that's ever left their county and stopped at a truck stop) think that charging infrastructure placed for the semi will require backing in?
https://youtu.be/TYtJqM8D3aQ?t=6m28s
GRA
Well-known member
Andy, I and others who have experience in trucking are wondering about the vehicle's weight with batteries, costs etc. If you go upthread I posted some back of the envelope calcs here, and there is also an article from IEVS by an engineer who came up with similar values, and several others have chimed in. Start here with the George Bowers' article, then calcs and some other's concerns follow: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=24551&p=511899&hilit=Tesla+Semi+Truck#p511899AndyH said:
I'll just add to one of my previous posts, where I wrote that using the 500-mile Semi to haul battery packs from the gigafactory to Fremont seemed like a good use of it. It may still be, but on further consideration trailer loading could well be problematic, as batteries are a very dense commodity which may make loading the nose of a trailer difficult, given that it there will already be a lot of extra weight on the tractor's rear axles from the battery. Having had to empty and then reload my share of trailers that wouldn't scale, this may seriously inhibit the utility of the Tesla semi for this job. Light carton freight, no problem, but liquid drums, heavy pallets, dense metal etc. where gross rather than cube is controlling will be affected in a major way.
AndyH
Well-known member
My dad drove mail while I was a kid. I sold oil and advised small trucking company on maintenance for efficiency. I've made batteries and have personal experience with towing, hauling loads, and EVs of various sizes. Based on that, and on the changes made to the Tesla semi (like - there are no massive cast iron differential 'pumpkins' on the back of the electric - those things are massive and weight about 2500 lbs each). We'll have to agree the disagree. In 4 or 5 Elon Years(tm) when the semis hit the street, we can compare notes.GRA said:
(Also, check the edit in my post above - I added a link to a Tesla Supercharger layout that has a charger for folks towing trailers. Yes, they exist right meow.)
GRA
Well-known member
Yes, there are a few, after people complained about the lack of them when the Model X first showed up - the need for same hadn't occurred to Tesla before that, just as they hadn't realized until people started to bitch that SCs in areas that got snow shouldn't use side-mounted stalls on islands, as they blocked the use of snow plows (not an issue in the Bay Area). Some of the newer large SC sites are being built as all pull- through, which is a good thing. But not all of the new ones have them, and most of the existing sites lack them entirely. So this is one of the areas where improvements can (must) be made to make towing more practical. In the case of the Semi it isn't a big deal, as they simply lack the range for long-haul and should normally charge only at each end of the run, before picking up or after dropping the trailer.AndyH said:
AndyH
Well-known member
Sorry man - no long-haul truck refuels only at end points. One of my customers ran dry boxes from Mexico to Canada on "NAFTA" routes. They built their own service centers along the routes so their drivers can get what they need from the company. It will be trivial for them to install truck chargers at their facilities. And yes - they're spaced for intervals that will work with Tesla's fully-loaded trucks as well.GRA said:
GRA
Well-known member
And as I wrote, I believe the Tesla Semi is ill-suited for long haul with its current (announced) capabilities - it should be used for distribution and delivery, for which it is well suited.AndyH said:
AndyH
Well-known member
One might have thought the day cab gave that away, but whatever.GRA said:
I take a break for a couple of years and find MNL exactly how I left it. Impressive! :lol:
AndyH said:One might have thought the day cab gave that away, but whatever.GRA said:
I take a break for a couple of years and find MNL exactly how I left it. Impressive! :lol:
Here's an attempt to refute the negatives about the Tesla semi previously posted;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138772-tesla-semi-details#alt2
Andy, we enjoy your posts.
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