Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Bloomberg has started it's own tracker on model 3 output, largely incorporating the data from the M3 club.

BB now shows production has finally reached the 1k per week production level TSLA was claiming (using weasel words) at the end of December.

Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.

Tesla Model 3 Tracker

We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.

...Sluggish output since the Model 3 launch in July 2017 has frustrated fans and confounded Wall Street. That’s why Bloomberg built its own tool to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the factory in Fremont, California. This projection relies on Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), unique strings of digits displayed on every new car sold in the U.S.

Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 7,341 Model 3s so far, and is now building approximately 1,025 a week. Those figures, and the charts below, represent Bloomberg’s latest estimates and will automatically update to reflect changes in the data...

The Model 3—with a sticker price as low as $35,000, but currently only available in more expensive configurations—is Tesla’s first step into the mainstream. That plan only works if the company can figure out how to make exponentially more cars. And, as often happens with Musk’s aggressive goals, Tesla has repeatedly fallen short of its own manufacturing targets...

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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

edatoakrun said:

Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.

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The reason is (and somebody had to remind even me about this) is that the Bloomberg estimator (and the other sources of this data that they actually stole) are estimating DELIVERIES, not PRODUCTION, the difference being a 3-4 week lag for shipment, prep and pickup by customers. Not only that, but the VIN-sighting estimation technique has even more lag built in because those delivered vehicles need to be "caught" in the wild.

So the factory may in fact be producing 2500 vehicles per week at the end of March, but VIN sightings of those 2500 vehicles made that week will not hit social media until probably the end of April. So the whole "estimator" curve basically gets shifted to the right from what the factory is actually producing.

And the reason this is important (other than the fact that it gives you another false data point to use against Tesla) is when it comes to when Tesla will cross the 200K point. If you make the mistake of assuming the PRODUCTION rate equals DELIVERY rate and 2500 cars are being DELIVERED the week ending March 31, you may think Tesla is closer to 200K US sales than they really are. You have to build in that lag, and once you do, it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q. This would completely eliminate any headwind vis a vis competing with the Bolt and be reassuring to everyone waiting for the base model that they will still receive half, if not full tax credit.

Tesla will likely try to logically extend numbers to maximize the credits. Of course people will likely not complain if they get the credit based on that. I’m at a SC at the design studio at Spacex and there is an AWD 3 car here and a bunch more 3s scattered around. They seem to be all over California and I’m seeing more in the wild every day.

Tesla will likely try to logically extend numbers to maximize the credits. Of course people will likely not complain if they get the credit based on that. I’m at a SC at the design studio at Spacex and there is an AWD 3 car here and a bunch more 3s scattered around. They seem to be all over California and I’m seeing more in the wild every day.

lpickup said:

edatoakrun said:

Both Bloomberg and the M3 thread show TSLA well below the curve to reach the 2.5k per week/5k per week production levels at the end of Q1 and Q2, claimed last month.

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The reason is (and somebody had to remind even me about this) is that the Bloomberg estimator (and the other sources of this data that they actually stole) are estimating DELIVERIES, not PRODUCTION...

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No, both quite clearly state they are trying to track PRODUCTION.

Model 3 PRODUCTION 3 to 4 weeks ago was estimated by BB to have been only 622 cars per week.

Feel free to quibble with their methodology, if you wish.

lpickup said:

...it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q...

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That would require a collapse in US Sales, of models X and S as well as 3.

Not to say that if that does happen, Musk will not say, "we were trying to do that..."

edatoakrun said:

No, both quite clearly state they are trying to track PRODUCTION.

Model 3 PRODUCTION 3 to 4 weeks ago was estimated by BB to have been only 622 cars per week.

Feel free to quibble with their methodology, if you wish.

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I sure will, because if they are going to track PRODUCTION with that technique, they are measuring production rates at least 4 weeks prior. Which is fine, except the person interpreting the data needs to know that. I.e. you.

edatoakrun said:

lpickup said:

...it actually looks like there is a remote possibility that the 200K barrier may be able to be deferred until 3Q. At this point it still seems more likely that they will cross it in 2Q, but there is talk of possible deliveries to Canada and other evasive actions that Tesla could take to limit US sales in order to push that milestone into 3Q...

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That would require a collapse in US Sales, of models X and S as well as 3.

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It would require a reduction of US sales, which could be brought about by diversion of product to other countries. If they wanted to do this it would make almost no difference to Tesla's bottom line.

edatoakrun said:

Not to say that if that does happen, Musk will not say, "we were trying to do that..."

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What it will mean is that edatoakrun will find some news article somewhere that cherry picks US sales numbers and how they are lower than expected, despite the fact that total sales show a consistent ramp. I'll be looking forward to it Ed.

The motive behind all this order tracking is very transparent.

For his sake, I just hope he covered his short when it went below 300 for a brief period last week.

Via ABG:

Tesla Model 3 delays, tax credit concerns spur sales of Chevy Bolts

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https://www.autoblog.com/2018/02/16/tesla-model-3-delays-tax-credit-concerns-spur-sales-of-chevy-bo/

SAN FRANCISCO — Some potential buyers of Tesla's long-delayed Model 3 sedan are concerned that they will miss out on big federal tax breaks and are looking for alternatives, including General Motors' Chevrolet Bolt, according to postings by would-be Tesla buyers on websites and interviews with GM dealers.

Last week Tesla told some holders of Model 3 reservations that they would not get their cars until 2019, eliciting howls of complaint on Tesla online fan forums. Tesla declined to comment.

GM dealers in California, the top U.S. market for electric vehicles, say brisk demand for Bolts is driven in part by frustrated Tesla buyers who are afraid they will lose a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit if they wait. The tax credit drops in value and eventually disappears once Tesla sells 200,000 electric vehicles in the United States, which Edmunds analyst Jeremy Acevedo expects Tesla to hit by the fall. . . .

Chevrolet dealer Yev Kaplinskiy said his dealership located between San Francisco and Silicon Valley sold 15 Bolts last weekend, after Tesla's latest delay.

"We're getting the Tesla people who wanted their Model 3," Kaplinskiy said. "We ask them, 'What other cars are you interested in?' They're mostly Tesla. But they want the car now. They don't want to wait." Some of the weekend buyers had turned to Chevy because of the most recent Tesla delay, he said. . . .

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Edmunds has a Model 3 in their long term test fleet. For those who, like me, want to be able to carry a bike in the car, turns out even a large frame will fit quite well, although you have to remove the front wheel: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model...odel-3-will-an-xl-size-mountain-bike-fit.html

GRA said:

Edmunds has a Model 3 in their lo g term test fleet. For those who, like me, want to be able to carry a bike in the car, turns out even a large frame will fit quite well, although you have to remove the front wheel: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model...odel-3-will-an-xl-size-mountain-bike-fit.html

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Really interesting! I figured I'd have to take the seat post out to get a large frame mountain bike in the 3, but apparently not. A lot easier to put a bicycle in the S but it is nice to see that you can do it in the 3 as well.

I always keep an old bedspread in my trunk to serve as a pad and to catch the dirt from my bike — living on a dirt road it always has some dried mud on it. Also makes it easier to slide the bicycle inside without worrying about damage to the car.

Update from ~10 days ago, with tentative workout to the problem by TSLA posted:

...a firmware error was the primary contributing factor that stopped the 12V from charging as designed. A new firmware, which fixes the issue I experienced, was loaded onto the car. This appears to have remedied the error. They replaced the 12V battery (as a precaution since it was fully drained) with a brand new one and have been monitoring its charge. As of now, it's holding a charge as expected. Since I'm not in a hurry, I did say it wouldn't be a problem to keep the car over the weekend...

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-model-3-down-wont-power-up-and-is-inaccessible.108412/page-18#post-2569756

Meanwhile, anecdotal posts of multiple model 3 12 V battery failures on TMC threads, such as:

...If you find yourself in a similar situation to me and you NEED to move your car - at your own risk you may JUMP the 12v battery. Tesla advises against it - but it was the first thing the Tesla preferred tow driver did. He told me has seen this issue already on several model 3s (! There can’t be more than 100 delivered in my region). He jumped the battery and was able to get the car into drive. It’s easy to access the 12v battery in this car, I won’t go into it here but you can look it up easily. If you do decide to jump - do it quickly and immediately move your car somewhere safe. My 12v battery completely failed shortly after we got it into drive and could not be fully jumped again...

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-rear-drive-unit-failed.108863/

edatoakrun said:

EVDRIVER said:

edatoakrun said:

That the model 3 is so poorly designed, it's funny.

Sorry you didn't get the joke.

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No I don't get it, a 12V battery dies so what?...

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If you're lucky enough to have it happen to your 3 in your garage, this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMQsOC8EqIY

I can think of lots of worse places to find your 3 has locked you out, locked your 3 out of tow mode, and (if when plugged in) locked you to a charge cable, due to any 12 volt system failure.

As discussed on this thread, lots of places where it won't be funny at all...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-model-3-down-wont-power-up-and-is-inaccessible.108412/

Poor design, to make vehicle access dependent on the 12 volt system, especially so when considering TSLA's history of recurring 12 V system failures.

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dgpcolorado said:

GRA said:

Edmunds has a Model 3 in their lo g term test fleet. For those who, like me, want to be able to carry a bike in the car, turns out even a large frame will fit quite well, although you have to remove the front wheel: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model...odel-3-will-an-xl-size-mountain-bike-fit.html

Click to expand...

Really interesting! I figured I'd have to take the seat post out to get a large frame mountain bike in the 3, but apparently not. A lot easier to put a bicycle in the S but it is nice to see that you can do it in the 3 as well.

I always keep an old bedspread in my trunk to serve as a pad and to catch the dirt from my bike — living on a dirt road it always has some dried mud on it. Also makes it easier to slide the bicycle inside without worrying about damage to the car.

Click to expand...

Whenever I carry a bike in my Forester I throw in a sheet of cardboard, both for protection and to make it slide easier. Using something like an old sheet or bedspread, i find it always gets wrapped around a pedal or handlebar, and I have to spend time untangling it.

I picked up a recycled fiber grey area rug for $20 at Lowes. I used part of it to make a rear cargo mat, and the big piece I had left is great for carrying sharp-edged or less than clean objects in my car. I put it in with the rug fibers facing down against the car, and place the bicycle or whatever on the tough backing. It slides well, too.

edatoakrun said:

Update from ~10 days ago, with tentative workout to the problem by TSLA posted:

...a firmware error was the primary contributing factor that stopped the 12V from charging as designed. A new firmware, which fixes the issue I experienced, was loaded onto the car. This appears to have remedied the error. They replaced the 12V battery (as a precaution since it was fully drained) with a brand new one and have been monitoring its charge. As of now, it's holding a charge as expected. Since I'm not in a hurry, I did say it wouldn't be a problem to keep the car over the weekend...

Click to expand...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-model-3-down-wont-power-up-and-is-inaccessible.108412/page-18#post-2569756

Meanwhile, anecdotal posts of multiple model 3 12 V battery failures on TMC threads, such as:

...If you find yourself in a similar situation to me and you NEED to move your car - at your own risk you may JUMP the 12v battery. Tesla advises against it - but it was the first thing the Tesla preferred tow driver did. He told me has seen this issue already on several model 3s (! There can’t be more than 100 delivered in my region). He jumped the battery and was able to get the car into drive. It’s easy to access the 12v battery in this car, I won’t go into it here but you can look it up easily. If you do decide to jump - do it quickly and immediately move your car somewhere safe. My 12v battery completely failed shortly after we got it into drive and could not be fully jumped again...

Click to expand...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-rear-drive-unit-failed.108863/

edatoakrun said:

EVDRIVER said:

No I don't get it, a 12V battery dies so what?...

Click to expand...

If you're lucky enough to have it happen to your 3 in your garage, this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMQsOC8EqIY

I can think of lots of worse places to find your 3 has locked you out, locked your 3 out of tow mode, and (if when plugged in) locked you to a charge cable, due to any 12 volt system failure.

As discussed on this thread, lots of places where it won't be funny at all...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-model-3-down-wont-power-up-and-is-inaccessible.108412/

Poor design, to make vehicle access dependent on the 12 volt system, especially so when considering TSLA's history of recurring 12 V system failures.

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Yes as mentioned before software, you need to drain the entire pack to get the 12V to die otherwise. Also they are changing the software on the glove box as well so everyone will now need to find new non-issues to complain about. Unlike Nissan, the 12V battery on the 3 won't be a long term issue.

Oh and looks like Nissan has fixed all their issues on the new car....

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=2099&start=2290#p519606

As such, it appears that 100% of the Model 3’s coming out of the factory have bug ridden, beta grade software. Furthermore, based on fan site reviews, we suspect that 50% or more of Model 3s coming out of factory also have hardware defects. Many of the defects and types have been documented on our recent articles.

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4149672-tesla-model-3-quality-may-soon-become-key-ramp-limitation-ahead-battery-manufacturing?auth_param=1adagi:1d8ud9i:b9291bd869dcf70fd07c91b14d11f27e&uprof=44&dr=1

It increasingly appears that Tesla will have a demand problem from Model 3. This should not be surprising to our readers as we have been forecasting that demand for Model 3 would be significantly lower than management forecasts due to the car’s price being much higher than the much touted $35,000 level.

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Tesla could have introduced the $35,000 cars to its employees and owners but the gross margins on that car would likely be negative. That would be a disaster for Tesla’s Model 3 gross margin narrative. Consequently, Tesla management is taking a gamble that it is better to expand the customer circle and go for higher gross margins.

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Based on comments on extremely friendly fan sites, rare are people who are getting a Model 3 without a manufacturing defect from the factory. The expectations of quality are so low that some customers have created a checklist on what to check for at the time of Model 3 delivery and what level of quality is acceptable.

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Have to love Elon's "low ball" $35K M3 strategy to generate needed cash flow, i.e. ~ $.5B reservations 2 yrs ago.

poor loren sad about his short position?

I got my invitation last night to configure for a 3-6 week delivery window. Non employee, non owner. I’m holding out for the standard range car though.

I rented a model 3 on Turo two weekends ago and it was exactly what I want. I drove like a BMW back when they were still fun with forward visibility and a low belt line like Hondas used to have. Best stereo I’ve ever heard in a car and there wasn’t a squeak or rattle to be found. Of course it has monstrous power and taut, stable handling.

I’m seeing them multiple times a day now.

hyperionmark said:

poor loren sad about his short position?

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That and that the $35K car is not available to him early enough. I guess we should also ignore the fact that all the LEAFs had bugs in thier software as well. The trolling, will continue endlessly.

EVDRIVER said:

hyperionmark said:

poor loren sad about his short position?

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That and that the $35K car is not available to him early enough. I guess we should also ignore the fact that all the LEAFs had bugs in thier software as well. The trolling, will continue endlessly.

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yup, trolls gonna troll