2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

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edatoakrun said:
edatoakrun said:
edatoakrun said:
This entire thread ha been a delusional exercise, in that a Tesla Model 3 SR does not actually exists at this time.
Anybody who put down the $1k deposit still have a 2018 delivery date estimate from TSLA on a SR?


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4150663-teslas-10-k-shows-newfound-modesty

I bet their click through rate has gone through the roof with you pasting all these links. I hear Info Wars needs a traffic boost too....
 
lilly said:
The internet is full of blowhards who must be rich because their solution to any problem is to throw money at it. Yes, the Tesla is a better car, BUT it costs at least $5000 more than the Leaf. For the leaf's price point, engineering tradeoffs will have to be made.

That said, other leaf owners told me to expect a 30% battery degradation in 5 years. Since I live 2 miles from work, my battery should last 15 years. I seriously doubt any Tesla owner will drive their car for more than 15 years. I am not interested in the resale value.

That said, I also have a Model 3 on order. I can afford 1 tesla, not 2.

+1... I agree that these "blowhards" are just making noise about how great is the Tesla 3, just to muddy the water for every one.

Your estimate that the Tesla will be only $5k more than the Leaf is totally too generous. Saying that the Tesla 3 (which is still not on the market and is equal to vaporware) will only cost $35K is Tesla's way to slow down the EV market and buyers from buying other makes of EVs. It's like those ads for black Friday that a $1000 TV will be sold for $200.... (Try to find one at that price).

Lastly, if you have a Model 3 on order, and if you ever have the opportunity to get one.... DON"T. Tesla's business model is to make and "Eye" and "Ego" candy product that makes people drool. However, their payoff is making a "custom", low volume product that only they can service, fix, or supply parts from . I have heard of so many horror stories where the Teslas are in a minor accident, and either the parts to repair MUST be bought from T at gouging prices. Also, replacement parts must be installed so that the computer recognizes it (Tesla installed) OR the car is not worth the cost to repair, and the insurance companies "total" the car. Do you want that kind of "exclusive" car long term? Think about it....
 
lilly said:
That said, other leaf owners told me to expect a 30% battery degradation in 5 years. Since I live 2 miles from work, my battery should last 15 years. I seriously doubt any Tesla owner will drive their car for more than 15 years. I am not interested in the resale value.
If all you want from an EV is to drive 2 miles between charges, you have a lot of choices. My wife uses one of our cars for that sort of in-town driving only and our used LEAF does great and was cheap.

My driving to work 90 miles round trip and our 250 mile drives each way to another city require an EV that:
1. starts off with a pretty large battery
2. Does not degrade over a few years
3. Has a supporting charging infrastructure that is fast, reliable, and available.

A LEAF is a non-starter, a Tesla Model 3 is perfect.
 
powersurge said:
lilly said:
The internet is full of blowhards who must be rich because their solution to any problem is to throw money at it. Yes, the Tesla is a better car, BUT it costs at least $5000 more than the Leaf. For the leaf's price point, engineering tradeoffs will have to be made.

That said, other leaf owners told me to expect a 30% battery degradation in 5 years. Since I live 2 miles from work, my battery should last 15 years. I seriously doubt any Tesla owner will drive their car for more than 15 years. I am not interested in the resale value.

That said, I also have a Model 3 on order. I can afford 1 tesla, not 2.

+1... I agree that these "blowhards" are just making noise about how great is the Tesla 3, just to muddy the water for every one.

Your estimate that the Tesla will be only $5k more than the Leaf is totally too generous. Saying that the Tesla 3 (which is still not on the market and is equal to vaporware) will only cost $35K is Tesla's way to slow down the EV market and buyers from buying other makes of EVs. It's like those ads for black Friday that a $1000 TV will be sold for $200.... (Try to find one at that price).

Lastly, if you have a Model 3 on order, and if you ever have the opportunity to get one.... DON"T. Tesla's business model is to make and "Eye" and "Ego" candy product that makes people drool. However, their payoff is making a "custom", low volume product that only they can service, fix, or supply parts from . I have heard of so many horror stories where the Teslas are in a minor accident, and either the parts to repair MUST be bought from T at gouging prices. Also, replacement parts must be installed so that the computer recognizes it (Tesla installed) OR the car is not worth the cost to repair, and the insurance companies "total" the car. Do you want that kind of "exclusive" car long term? Think about it....

Thanks for your logical and insightful perspective.
 
lorenfb said:
Thanks for your logical and insightful perspective.
[/quote][/quote]

I trust that you were not being sarcastic... People love or hate Tesla. The lovers seem to be fanatic groupies who feel that Tesla can do no wrong....
 
powersurge said:
The lovers seem to be fanatic groupies who feel that Tesla can do no wrong....

Agreed (mostly) - but taking an equivalent position at the other end of the spectrum doesn't 'balance out' the discussion as much as turn it into a religious battle with no rational discussion possible.
 
powersurge said:
lorenfb said:
Thanks for your logical and insightful perspective.

I trust that you were not being sarcastic... People love or hate Tesla. The lovers seem to be fanatic groupies who feel that Tesla can do no wrong....

Yes. It'll be obvious when I'm sarcastic. Read the M3 thread. Many there dislike my negative but realistic posts about Tesla's marketing
of the M3, and how most M3 reservation holders were taken "down the garden path".
 
lorenfb said:
powersurge said:
lorenfb said:
Thanks for your logical and insightful perspective.

I trust that you were not being sarcastic... People love or hate Tesla. The lovers seem to be fanatic groupies who feel that Tesla can do no wrong....

Yes. It'll be obvious when I'm sarcastic. Read the M3 thread. Many there dislike my negative but realistic posts about Tesla's marketing
of the M3, and how most M3 reservation holders were taken "down the garden path".


Realistic posts based on your opinion. You literally cherry pic your points and ignore those that refute yours, ignore questions proposed to you that you ask of others, and state false facts and misinformed points on Tesla products. There are thousands of people that like Tesla that are not "fanboys", same for Nissan yet you have an uncanny way to choose your "facts". It's great that you think your posts are realistic but on the other hand you may ask yourself why you seem to have such a deep animosity for a car company. Lastly your talk like a Tesla expert yet you have never answered if you have even sat in one.
 
SageBrush said:
kennethbokor said:
My goal is not to discourage any Model 3 or Leaf lovers, but to provide a snapshot comparison of overall price point and value that can be had today with these two vehicles so that one can make a more better informed decision. Hope this helps.
You have cherry picked the configurations and ended up with two cars that are quite different.

Just from memory, in your Tesla config that is not in the LEAF:
  • All glass roof
    12-way driver
    6 way front passenger
    TMS (double the longevity of the car ?)
    SuperCharger network at ~ 90 kW
    ~ 55 kWh battery
    Rear USB
    Driver profiles
    High quality interior
    Large screen
    Too many cameras to count
    Auto folding mirros

Pardon my saying so, but your 40 kWh LEAF is going to depreciate like a rock without a TMS and hobbled by a crappy DCFC network. The cutesy feature set cannot make up for basic deficiencies in the car. I've decided to skip the ACC (even though I will miss it!) and buy an AWD Tesla instead. I'll decide about the premium interior after I sit in the car. So for me a well equipped, superbly engineered EV that will completely replace my hybrid plug-in for the next decade or two is as low as ~ $40k USD.

Econobox or not, the LEAF cannot even be a consideration.

I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS. Tesla’s batteries have amazing longevity mostly because their battery chemistry is so good. So there’s hope for the 40kWh Leaf yet.

It’s a new NMC chemistry similar to that used in the Power Wall, which is optimized for longevity. It’s different again from Tesla vehicles, but it seems like a step in the right direction. At least it shows Nissan is really trying to solve the issue (especially since their old MNO chemistry made for cheaper batteries less susceptible to metals market swings).

From what I understand, batteries in the Leaf up to this point were used mostly because Nissan overestimated Leaf sales and made a bad deal with NEC.

It’s still quite early, but I’m hoping these new batteries are better... They apparently have a proprietary electrolytic solution that also helps improve lifespan. I can’t seem to find if these are still AESC or what, but Carlos Ghosn was talking about how great LG Chem is, so I’m wondering if they didn’t get some help this time.

Fingers crossed, cheeks clenched. Especially since my commute is 60 miles round trip. I’ve only been quick charging every 3 days or so. I’d like to keep it that way for a while.
 
jonathanfields4ever said:
I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS.
If I am, then so is Tesla. Do you have that much insight into battery longevity, that you know what Tesla does not ?

You cannot pull the Nissan card here since they have proved many times over that they are willing to manufacture batteries that are severely degraded in just a few years.

If the longest drive between charges you will make is 60 miles, I think you will be in good shape for a long time -- hopefully way over a decade. After all, Nissan should replace your battery under warranty before you drop below your commute requirements. Not by a lot, but enough. I figure EPA battery range down to 100 miles just before the warranty kicks in, and up to a 30% range penalty from bad weather/roads etc. That puts you at 70 miles at your range nadir.
 
SageBrush said:
jonathanfields4ever said:
I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS.
If I am, then so is Tesla. Do you have that much insight into battery longevity, that you know what Tesla does not ?

Battery chemistries are not all the same. Some need and can thrive at higher temperatures, some need and can thrive at lower temperatures.

For a commuter car, a wide temperature range battery that doesn't need a TMS would be the cheapest, lowest maintainance and most reliable solution. The Leaf with the 24kWh "lizard battery" is fairly close to this, with great results in cool places and OK results in hotter places.

For a performance car, a TMS is a requirement. Any non-actively cooled battery would either limit performance or melt. Both of which are unacceptable for something like a Tesla S/X/3/Y.

Nissan and Tesla are designing for different requirements. Are you interested in cheap and reliable, or in performance?

Nissan is making money on the Leaf. Tesla is making money on the S and X, and burning cash by the millions to try to start production of the 3.

If I had to bet on which automaker will be around in 10 years or 20 years, I'd bet on Nissan.
 
WetEV said:
and OK results in hotter places.
ROFL
Buddy, you are in serious denial.

Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years. Nissan takes it on chin in order to meet CARB ZEV requirements so they can sell truck stinkers. Absent the ZEV quota, there would be no LEAF in the US. You doubt me ? Watch lease offers in H2 of 2018 after Nissan finishes mopping up the few thousand people willing to pay ~ MSRP. The Bolt is the same story.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
jonathanfields4ever said:
I think you’re overestimating the importance of a TMS.
If I am, then so is Tesla. Do you have that much insight into battery longevity, that you know what Tesla does not ?

Battery chemistries are not all the same. Some need and can thrive at higher temperatures, some need and can thrive at lower temperatures.

For a commuter car, a wide temperature range battery that doesn't need a TMS would be the cheapest, lowest maintainance and most reliable solution. The Leaf with the 24kWh "lizard battery" is fairly close to this, with great results in cool places and OK results in hotter places.

For a performance car, a TMS is a requirement. Any non-actively cooled battery would either limit performance or melt. Both of which are unacceptable for something like a Tesla S/X/3/Y.

Nissan and Tesla are designing for different requirements. Are you interested in cheap and reliable, or in performance?

Nissan is making money on the Leaf. Tesla is making money on the S and X, and burning cash by the millions to try to start production of the 3.

If I had to bet on which automaker will be around in 10 years or 20 years, I'd bet on Nissan.

Good summary!

Can you imagine what the EPA mileage rating would have been on the Gen 1 Leaf with TMS? Given battery technology, battery costs,
and Leaf's targeted selling price to achieve the desired market share when Gen 1 was developed, Nissan had little choice but to not
include TMS.
 
SageBrush said:
Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years.

Yawn.

Nissan has a sales strategy of set the MSRP high, and discount significantly as needed to sell cars. So ignoring this, and the assorted tax rebates, you come up with a high depreciation percentage. Proves nothing technical.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
Those same cars depreciate some 60-70% in 2-3 years.

Nissan has a sales strategy of set the MSRP high, and discount significantly as needed to sell cars. So ignoring this, and the assorted tax rebates, you come up with a high depreciation percentage.

You are having trouble with arithmetic. Let me help you out

MSRP: 32k
Auction purchase price: 6k
Fed tax credit from lease to Nissan: 7.5K

1 - (6+7.5)/32 = 0.58 depreciation.

Or let's calculate break-even manufacturing cost for Nissan:
10k lease income
6k after-lease sale
7.5k tax rebate
----
23.5k income from each car.

Clearly Nissan is manufacturing each car at a loss. The only way this pens out is the ~ 10k or so than Nissan "saves" by not having to pay the ZEV penalty, and when the Fed tax credit goes, so does Nissan's business model.
 
WetEV said:
Are you interested in cheap and reliable
Yes, which is why a LEAF is a terrible buy until market depreciation has improved the car value.

Face facts, the LEAF amortizes out over 8-10 years AT BEST*.

You are paying about $266 a month for a commuter car that cannot be counted on to have more than a ~ 35 mile** driving radius.
Cheap ?!? Only if you pay in Pesos.

*Not really though, because a battery replacement is involved to reach those ~ 10 years and the degraded performance during the ownership period has to be considered. A conservative analysis would say that the LEAF is no better than its performance at its worse, just before battery replacement. Since that is about 0.6 of new, you are talking about $32k for a 40*0.6 = 24 kWh range for 8 - 10 years.


** Based on peak battery degradation before replacement, 30% range penalty for bad weather, and no destination or in-route charging.
 
SageBrush said:
...Face facts, the LEAF amortizes out over 8-10 years AT BEST*.

You are paying about $266 a month for a commuter car that cannot be counted on to have more than a ~ 35 mile** driving radius.
Cheap ?!? Only if you pay in Pesos.

*Not really though, because a battery replacement is involved to reach those ~ 10 years and the degraded performance during the ownership period has to be considered. A conservative analysis would say that the LEAF is no better than its performance at its worse, just before battery replacement. Since that is about 0.6 of new, you are talking about $32k for a 40*0.6 = 24 kWh range for 8 - 10 years.


** Based on peak battery degradation before replacement, 30% range penalty for bad weather, and no destination or in-route charging.
Thanks for the Sunday morning humor.

But it would be even funnier if you were to apply your imaginary analysis to the imaginary BEV in your thread title, the Tesla Model 3 SR...
 
SageBrush said:
6k after-lease sale

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=19362&start=180#p496457

Looks like 7k would be closer.

And MSRP is a fiction, most of the time. Yes, the first car off the first truck might sell for that. After that...

Buying for 6k below MSRP Out The Door or including all of the fees and such is perhaps more common. Or, at least that is about what I've done. And I've seen Leafs bought for less. For amusement:

http://www.9news.com/article/money/how-to-get-a-new-electric-car-for-under-10000/73-439975511

Oh, and state incentives need to be accounted for as well. $5,000 in Colorado, correct?

1-(7.5k+5k+7k)/26k = 25% depreciation.

Or 39% depreciation if you start with the fictional MSRP.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
6k after-lease sale

1-(7.5k+5k+7k)/26k = 25% depreciation.

Or 39% depreciation if you start with the fictional MSRP.
Depreciation is not calculated your way, and here is one example why:

My Prius Prime MSRP was $27.1k
I paid 25.k before a $4.5 Fed tax credit and $5k Colo tax credit
Current used prices on retail market are 22k in CA
According to you depreciation calc:

1 - (4.5+22+5)25.5
 
The implementation of a passive battery management system is questionable, at best.
2011-2012 Leafs in warm climates had horrible results. Even in cold climates, they haven’t been very good.

When the 2011s came out Nissan SAID the batteries had undergone extensive testing in hot weather environments and would be fine.
That turned out not to be the case.

The ‘warm weather’ batteries, from reports, seem to have done better, but still not as good as batteries with active battery management systems.

From what I have heard, the 2019 Leaf will have a larger battery and an active battery management system.
I don’t see how people can argue for a passive system. Unless they believe in 3-5 year disposable cars.
 
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