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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:59 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
jlv wrote:Truly terrible that they outsold ever other plug-in in the US.
OTOH, worldwide it appears the 2018 Nissan LEAF may have outsold ALL 3 Tesla models added together during its first month of sales in the US and Europe. If not, it should be close.

Not surprised at that; had Tesla scaled up the production rate to anywhere near what they projected the first, second, or sixth times, that wouldn't have happened. If Tesla does scale up the rate, they'll likely outsell the LEAF. The sales numbers in the middle and end of year will be very interesting.
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RegGuheert
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:22 pm

jlv wrote:Not surprised at that; had Tesla scaled up the production rate to anywhere near what they projected the first, second, or sixth times, that wouldn't have happened. If Tesla does scale up the rate, they'll likely outsell the LEAF.
Agreed. I guess I am kinda wondering if Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 sales, even while these difficulties with the ramp-up are ongoing.
jlv wrote:The sales numbers in the middle and end of year will be very interesting.
Agreed. The contrast between Nissan's nearly-instant ramp of the LEAF 2 (not without product problems, mind you) and Tesla's glacial ramp of the Model 3 are quite stark. I am wondering when the crossover (worldwide) will occur. As you know, some here would say, "Never!"
RegGuheert
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:38 pm

RegGuheert wrote: I guess I am kinda wondering if Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 sales, even while these difficulties with the ramp-up are ongoing.


You think! Since many view the M3 as just a less expensive MS with basically the key desired features of the MS and for just $35K. Wonder who predicted that last year? Hum? Been re-reading my posts from last year?
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:55 pm

jlv wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:2,485 total model 3 sales in February as reported:

Truly terrible that they outsold every other plug-in in the US.


Yes, "Truly terrible" for Tesla's bottom line as a result of the M3 selling 2X the number of MS vehicles at less gross profit per vehicle.
Leave it to Elon having been dreaming about his "Mars Trip" in his Strategic Marketing class as an undergrad at Wharton and not taking notes.
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:26 am

An interesting historical perspective on the current state of Tesla: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/03/te ... n-model-3/
In one year, will we still have people claiming Tesla can’t mass produce the Model S … er, the Model X … er, the Model 3? I doubt it. Most likely, we’ll have people claiming Tesla can’t mass produce the Tesla Model Y or Tesla Pickup or Tesla Semi. Perhaps I will then revisit this post and take a stroll down memory lane again.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:27 am

jlv wrote:An interesting historical perspective on the current state of Tesla: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/03/te ... n-model-3/
In one year, will we still have people claiming Tesla can’t mass produce the Model S … er, the Model X … er, the Model 3? I doubt it. Most likely, we’ll have people claiming Tesla can’t mass produce the Tesla Model Y or Tesla Pickup or Tesla Semi. Perhaps I will then revisit this post and take a stroll down memory lane again.


And then we come back to reality:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415306 ... &dr=1#alt1


We now have sales numbers for January and February for Tesla’s biggest countries, including the US and Europe.
For some, we have only January as of yet, but they are remarkably consistent with the ones from whom we also have February numbers.
Adding it all up, it’s looking like a 42% shortfall for Tesla.
Adding up all geographies, it looks like Tesla sold an estimated 11,548 cars in January and February combined.  Can Tesla deliver a similar number - 11,548 - in March alone?
If so, the quarter would end at 23,096 units - a 42% shortfall from a 40,000 unit consensus (25,000 Model S and X combined, plus 15,000 Model 3).


And most importantly:
With 1,875 Model 3 units in January and 2,485 in February, the Model 3 already is looking like an epic miss of Olympian proportions. At 2,500 per month, that would be a measly 30,000 a year, or more than a 90% shortfall from the 400,000 per year guidance. Adding insult to injury, Tesla admitted in its February 7 financial report that the Model 3 has negative gross margin even at a selling price that's currently starting at $50,000. One certainly understands the company's reluctance to start selling the $36,000 version.


Remember, the strategy/goal with the M3 was that Tesla would finally become a profitable entity long term! Without long term profitability
in sight, the ability of Tesla to access funding will soon end.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:19 pm

The interesting thing about the pro and anti-tesla arguments is that most of them are very good, at the very same time. It's extremely difficult to predict where they will go.

The naysayers keep getting it wrong in a lot of ways. Tesla is stronger than ever with products people love and are lusting after for them to produce as many as possible. EV is the future and they are its vanguard, poised to obliterate the competition.

At the same time they are burning cash like that's the main business, their production estimates month after month and quarter after quarter are complete garbage, and in the next few years the giants will turn their guns on the EV market and flood it with competition, created on matured product lines, leveraging experience in manufacturing that Tesla can only dream of.

My personal view continues to be I'm frustrated at how slowly they are ramping this up, and their Q1 estimate of 2500/week is obviously, yet again, not going to happen. The dream of 5000 cars/week consistently by end of Q2 is so obviously fake that anybody who still believes it should be medicated.

iPlug
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:55 pm

TSLA market cap stands where it did about 9 months ago, about 56B today, following some spectacular runs.

It should be interesting to watch the ticker over the next ~6 months to see how the Model 3 rollout progresses and how investors value the company then.

To this point the naysayers appear to have mostly called it wrong. But like Apple and other juggernauts before, insane market performance eventually cools off. Some companies remain leaders and giants in their sector while others ultimately wither and some die away.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:48 am

Hadn't realized this until someone posted this on "TMC".

Tesla’s Chief Accounting Officer leaves the automaker (posted March 8, 2018, not to be confused with a CFO)
https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-ts ... er-leaves/

Tesla loses one of its most senior engineers and director of manufacturing
https://electrek.co/2018/01/17/tesla-se ... facturing/
Jalopnik reported that both Jason Mendez, senior director for manufacturing engineering, and Will McColl, senior manager for equipment engineering, both left the automaker in recent weeks.

Mendez has been with Tesla since 2005 – making him one of its most senior engineers.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:10 am

iPlug wrote:TSLA market cap stands where it did about 9 months ago, about 56B today


As has been said before, the typical TSLA investor is irrational and indifferent to Tesla's financial position. Neither classical fundamental nor
technical analysis, typical for most stocks, applies to TSLA.

iPlug wrote:It should be interesting to watch the ticker over the next ~6 months to see how the Model 3 rollout progresses and how investors value the company then.


Not really! Given the irrational behavior of the typical TSLA investor, it won't be until mid 2019 for the market to realize that the M3
isn't the financial savior Tesla needed.

iPlug wrote:To this point the naysayers appear to have mostly called it wrong.


Again, not really. As you stated in the first quote, TSLA is basically unchanged for the last 9 months, the M3 deliveries have missed
even the revised guidance a number of times, and Tesla losses continue to increase each quarter. Most naysayers predicted that the
M3 wouldn't be delivered to reservation holders for a price less than $50K, if ever. For 2018 deliveries, this has even been confirmed
by Tesla.
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