GRA
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:47 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?

I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...

If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure. I've got my fingers crossed that Electrify America won't suffer any major holdups, and that public charging can be made profitable.

My main expectation for this year is that U.S. BEV sales will finally cross the 1% barrier by themselves, assuming the Model 3 lifts rather than kills Tesla. I think the former's more likely than the latter, but now that volatility has returned to the economy, who knows?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:10 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure.
Frankly, 2% would be entirely reasonable for PEVs in 2022 since that would equate to nearly 20% exponential annual growth. 4% would mean over 40% exponential annual growth, which would be outstanding. 5% would mean nearly 50% exponential annual growth.

While I would not be at all surprised to see either 4% or 5% PEV penetration in 2022, I certainly won't be disappointed by 2% penetration, since that will indicate sustained growth of around 20% is occurring.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:50 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure.
Frankly, 2% would be entirely reasonable for PEVs in 2022 since that would equate to nearly 20% exponential annual growth. 4% would mean over 40% exponential annual growth, which would be outstanding. 5% would mean nearly 50% exponential annual growth.

While I would not be at all surprised to see either 4% or 5% PEV penetration in 2022, I certainly won't be disappointed by 2% penetration, since that will indicate sustained growth of around 20% is occurring.

I'm hoping/expecting that we may have some real publicly available L4 (maybe even the first L5) AVs by then, which should also help the growth rate of AFVs generally, although I expect it to help BEVs more than PHEVs or FCEVs. As BEVs are more dependent on the growth of charging infrastructure to serve MUD, it's far cheaper and quicker to arrange grouped central charging stations for AV BEVs to serve that population than it is to retrofit existing MUDs and on-street parking spaces with charging. AVs should also reduce the total number of vehicles in the fleet if mobility services become the norm, making it even easier to provide the required charging infrastructure.

There are so many different ways society may go to meet their future transportation needs that you might as well draw cards to predict which one(s) will be chosen. Will it be same as before except for switching to AFVs? Or will we become transportation omnivores and car ownership will quickly fade away, or something in between? Beats me.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

camasleaf
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:48 pm

With the 2015 Leaf lease expiring I am considering a PHEV. After 7 years the charging infrastructure is still not what I feel that I need to drive electric only everywhere I need or want. This is where I believe government should help. With the pricing for charging is cheaper to pump gas. Plus faster and most of all readily available away from home.
2011 SLe 06/17/11 Over 82000 miles 66%SOH 14.6kWh
2018 Honda Clarity PHEV $120 gasoline in 5600 miles
5.7kW DC System

GRA
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:44 pm

camasleaf wrote:With the 2015 Leaf lease expiring I am considering a PHEV. After 7 years the charging infrastructure is still not what I feel that I need to drive electric only everywhere I need or want. This is where I believe government should help. With the pricing for charging is cheaper to pump gas. Plus faster and most of all readily available away from home.

That's the current PHEV advantage in a nutshell. I know lots of outdoorsy green types like myself who would love to switch to a ZEV, but we can't because the infrastructure won't allow it yet, and charging is too expensive (eVgo's drop in prices helps a lot, combined with the recent rise in CA gas prices: Avg. $3.348/gal. vs. $2.526/gal. nationally) and/or inconvenient, as well as much slower on the trips we take.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

camasleaf
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:59 pm

$250 a year for AeroVironment for out of town close to freeway charging. Plus another $150 in town as needed. $400 or 140 gallons of gas. I have my eyes on Honda Clarity that will drive 6000 miles with that gas. We still have one BEV, but for the second car a PHEV works better for us. Will likely make the move this weekend.
2011 SLe 06/17/11 Over 82000 miles 66%SOH 14.6kWh
2018 Honda Clarity PHEV $120 gasoline in 5600 miles
5.7kW DC System

GRA
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:04 pm

February's French numbers, via IEVS:
PLUG-IN HYBRID SALES SURGES IN FRANCE, WHILE BEVS STRUGGLE IN FEBRUARY
https://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-surges-in-france-while-bevs-struggles-in-february/

Feb. stats:

Passenger BEVs: 2.071 registrations (down 8.8%) at ~1.2% market share
Passenger PHEVs: 1,090 registrations (up 138.5%) at ~0.65% market share
Light commercial BEVs: 640 registrations (up 62.9%)

BEVs decreased for third month in a row, PHEVs up by an average of over 150% for the past four months. Still too early to call it a trend, but If this continues for another 2-3 months I'd say it is.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

powersurge
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:13 am

First, I think that most people in the world are not educated about the benefits of hybrid or EV vehicles. They have all been raised on gassers, and people are creatures of habit.. Or they live in low economic, low technology countries, and gas is the only choice.

In my humble but highly thought out opinion... What will make the world get into some form of electric vehicles is when automakers make ALL cars hybrids. The hybrid needs to be the forced standard for people to trust the technology. Why give sheeple the choice? After all, hybrid cars have a seamless driving experience compared to gas cars.... THEN they will see the hybrid as the norm.

As the world starts getting used to the hybrid, THEN they will more easily go to EVs... I started with the hybrid 2006 Ford Escape Hybrid. I loved having the high tech benefit of electric power... After that, the transition to the Leaf was very logical. I wonder how many people on this Leaf forum started with hybrids before they took the plunge to the Leaf??

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RegGuheert
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:05 am

BEV sales are up 40% YOY in France in March:
EV Sales wrote:The French PEV passenger car market registered a record 5.402 registrations, up 41% YoY, this time with both technologies (BEVs +40%, PHEVs +45%) pulling the market up to 10,892 units in 2018, up 17% YoY.
It appears YTD BEV sales in France for 2018 may still be slightly down from last year, but I expect BEV sales will continue to experience rapid growth as the year progresses.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:25 pm

RegGuheert wrote:BEV sales are up 40% YOY in France in March:
EV Sales wrote:The French PEV passenger car market registered a record 5.402 registrations, up 41% YoY, this time with both technologies (BEVs +40%, PHEVs +45%) pulling the market up to 10,892 units in 2018, up 17% YoY.
It appears YTD BEV sales in France for 2018 may still be slightly down from last year, but I expect BEV sales will continue to experience rapid growth as the year progresses.

Possible. PHEV sales were also up 45%, so no trend tilting either way is yet apparent. It's looking more like the Jan-Feb. results were a blip, but we'll have to give it a few more months yet to be sure.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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