Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

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DeeAgeaux said:
There is 0% chance Prius Prime outsells Model 3 in 2018. Yes, even Globally.
0%, huh? So you think Tesla can deliver more than about 100,000 Model 3s in 2018? I'm estimating that's how many Toyota Prius Primes will be delivered this year.
 
RegGuheert said:
They certainly don't care for the fact that these are all sub-20 mile AER PHEVs, and I mostly agree with them with the exception of the A3. Owners seem to be getting 19-20 miles AER in the real world, so while I'd much rather see it (actually, all of them) with an EPA AER in the low to mid-20s, I give it a pass for now based on its price and general performance. The next (battery) gen of all these cars needs to crack the 20 mile barrier.
 
January's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,236, 32.9% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,564, 67.1% (11 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Ionic PHEV)
Total 6,800. BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 8.2%.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down 5,647 M-o-M, the usual January sales slump. The absence of the SR Model 3 for quite a while yet will likely delay any major shift in the BEV/PHEV ratio in favor of the former. I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k. So:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 1,496; BEV, Bolt @ 1,177.

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

January's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 203, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 1,885, 90.1% (3 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi, Kia NIro PHEV)
Total 2,088. Decrease/Increase of 1.1% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 1,496; BEV Smart ED @ 84.

The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

January's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 84, 79.2% (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 22, 20.8% (1 type, Ionic PHEV)
Total 106.

BEV, Smart ED @ 84; PHEV, Ionic PHEV @ 22. This is the Ionic PHEV's first month of availability, so I expect sales to climb rapidly for a while as stocks increase, and with its price advantage we'll see if it overtakes the Prime.
 
RegGuheert said:
In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)
Entirely likely, although at the moment I suspect that's due more to the Volt having a lot more competition than the LEAF. The Volt has the Clarity PHEV in its own price/AER class, and shorter range PHEVs that are thousands of dollars less expensive (Prime, Ionic) as well as the aging Fusion, plus the Bolt. The question I have is will the LEAF be able to fight off competition from the Kona Electric when it arrives, as the small battery Kona should provide similar range to the 40-kWh LEAF but in the more popular CUV body style, while the bigger battery model will compete with both the 60kWh LEAF as well as the Bolt (always assuming that Hyundai prices the Kona competitively, but I expect they will).
 
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)
Entirely likely, although at the moment I suspect that's due more to the Volt having a lot more competition than the LEAF. The Volt has the Clarity PHEV in its own price/AER class, and shorter range PHEVs that are thousands of dollars less expensive (Prime, Ionic) as well as the aging Fusion, plus the Bolt. The question I have is will the LEAF be able to fight off competition from the Kona Electric when it arrives, as the small battery Kona should provide similar range to the 40-kWh LEAF but in the more popular CUV body style, while the bigger battery model will compete with both the 60kWh LEAF as well as the Bolt (always assuming that Hyundai prices the Kona competitively, but I expect they will).

Rumors say Kona coming to states with LR pack only which makes it direct competitor to Bolt, not LEAF
 
IEVS has finally published their full U.S. sales list for February:

February's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,185 (Jan 2,236), 34.5% (Jan 32.9%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 6,053 (Jan 4,564), 65.5% (Jan 67.1%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 9,117 (Jan 6,800). BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 1.6%.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k. So:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,050 (Jan 1,496).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,424 (Jan 1,177) .

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

February's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,061 (Jan 203), 28.9% (Jan 9.0%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,616 (Jan 1,885), 71.1% (Jan 90.1%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai; Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)
Total 3,503 (Jan 2,088). Increase/decrease of 19.9% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively, owing to the arrival of the 2018 LEAF and my counting all LEAFs sold in Feb. as 2018s (last month, I assumed all LEAFs were 2017s).

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,050 (Jan 1,496).
BEV, LEAF @ 895 (Jan 84).

The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

February's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 90 (Jan 84), 33.6% (Jan 79.2%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 178 (Jan 22), 66.4% (Jan 20.8%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).
Total 268. BEV/PHEV decrease/increase of 45.6%. I'm guessing Hyundai's still ramping up the stock of the Ionic, and I haven't seen any ads for it yet.
 
The Volt has outsold the LEAF month-for-month since Oct-2015... but that streak will probably end this month, making this thread's title true again.
 
I've now edited the Feb. 2018 sales post upthread with the updated info from IEVS. The Ionic PHEV saw a large jump compared to the earlier numbers, from 20 to 178, easily overtaking the Smart for the lead in the sub-$25k MSRP class. I'm sure it will continue to pull away.
 
RegGuheert on March 1 said:
I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)
Wow! All my prognostications from last month were awful! I was SURE this one was safe, but it went down the very first month: Volt: 1782, LEAF: 1500

What happened?! :shock:
 
RegGuheert said:
RegGuheert on March 1 said:
I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)
Wow! All my prognostications from last month were awful! I was SURE this one was safe, but it went down the very first month: Volt: 1782, LEAF: 1500

What happened?! :shock:

LEAF still limited in certain areas.
 
Don't know about the Volt but a guy at work just bought a Bolt and he said he got that vs a Leaf to appease his wife's range anxieties. His commute is well within a G1 Leaf and the G2 would be over-kill but he can afford the Bolt and the range is significantly larger. Sample size of 1 of course...
 
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
LEAF still limited in certain areas.
O.K. I get that. But how did GM managed to sell so many Volts? Fire sale?

Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.

March-2018-sales-scorecard-6.png
 
dhanson865 said:
...
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.

...
Finally?
Per the chart you posted, the Model 3 has topped the insideevs scoreboard the last three months.
It is very nice to see production start to improve.

That said, I don't see the Model 3 taking sales away from GM or Nissan for the rest of this year, if then.
The market is growing and Tesla, GM and Nissan are responsible for that growth. I see demand of all three continuing to grow as each gets productio, marketing and delivery up to speed.
 
^^^Toyota and Honda are also part of that growth, with both the Prime and Clarity PHEVs setting new sales records, and we'll have to see what happened with KIa/Hyundai's newish offerings. With the EPA's (fully expected) action to roll back the GHG and CAFE standards and the legal fight that's about to ensue, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see PEV sales in California shoot up even more than they would have done already owing to higher gas prices and lower eVgo charging prices, due to opposition to this administration's environmental policies and actions. Last year in California HEVs made up 3% of sales, BEVs 2.5% and PHEVs 2.0%, and I expect all those numbers will rise for any/all of the above reasons. Still, even here it's only 7.5% down with 92.5% to go (or 4.5%/95.5% for PEVs only).
 
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